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"Stumbling distance" 👍

My Fiesta tickets were better, but the good news is I'm looking at quadrupling or quintupling my money on them. Where you staying here?

An honest list. The lack of discipline was shocking for a Coach Satan team. They are 124th in the FBS for penalties. They shot themselves in their collective dick to the tune of 71 ypg on average.

I admit I had to chuckle.

I don't disagree. But the folks behind them all managed to screw the pooch in fatal fashion and come very close to additional pooch screwings to boot. UT without Hooker and with two bad losses in the last 30 days scares precisely no one. And this is one of Coach Satan's weakest teams. While lots of Bama fans love to point how close they were to being undefeated, the fact is they were also damn close to having 3 or 4 losses. Very TCUesque, except the Frogs managed to win.

UT has two decisive losses in the last month and lost the player that has carried them on his shoulders. They aren't a remote possibility for the final four.

The question needs to include "while having nothing but teams with more losses behind them" in it.

A home game (which this effectively is) is traditionally translated to a 3-point advantage. I think the 7-point spread is at the low-end frankly.

TCU vs. Michigan opening odds Spread: Michigan -9.5Total: 60Moneyline: Michigan -360, TCU +295 I'll be surprised if TCU keeps it this close. I've got to think they'll get pushed around, at very least in the 2nd half.

Ohio State vs. Georgia opening odds from DraftKings Sportsbook Spread: Georgia -6.5Total: 60.5Moneyline: Georgia -240, Ohio State +200 Tighter than I expected given the Michigan result and playing in Georgia's home away from home.

True, though not to the same degree (though Bama has earned that gap). And Rece also pointed out that he didn't necessarily disagree with the treatment of Ohio State. In the end, this year's final four are the right ones and in the right order. And my boys and I get to enjoy our long-ago purchased Fiesta Bowl tickets here in the ATL.

The only teams with one loss or fewer are the Georgia, Meatshittin, TCU and Ohio State. The only option is potentially flipping TCU and Ohio State. And Ohio State (my team, btw) is just off a significant loss.

Vamos a ver...

They are #11 in the latest AP. It was an OT game. Don't get me wrong, I think TCU has a snowball's chance of winning it, but losing in OT to a #11 team that you also have a win over should not drop you below a team that didn't make a championship and who's last game was an embarrassing home loss. And.... TCU is #3. And I've got four pretty decent seats at M-B stadium to watch the Ohio State - Georgia game. House internally divided in many respects. I am a long time Ohio State fan as are my boys. One is now a Georgia student and the other will attend Georgia in a year...

You have to stop Michigan's run game when they have a QB who can complete passes also. Michigan's o-line is legit and I'm not sure who can be confident of slowing their running game by rushing four. Anyway, we'll see.

I am an Ohio State fan. Dropping TCU for losing in OT to a highly-ranked team (that have a previous win over) to let tOSU jump them is absurd. They simply join Ohio State at one-loss, and the Frogs' loss was not an embarrassing loss at home.

Meatshittin can pass. McCarthy's pass efficiency rating is nearly identical to Young's. Michigan was run first because their running game has been amongst the most dominant in the country. Alabama's receiver corps is one of their weakest in recent memory.

Why Nick Saban's case for Alabama's inclusion in 2022 College Football Playoff field is flawed The Crimson Tide coach's case for his team to make the College Football Playoff is flimsy, at best By Barrett Sallee 10 hrs ago•4 min read Getty Images From the moment Kansas State kicker Ty Zentner's 31-yard field goal sailed through the uprights to give the Wildcats the Big 12 title and hand TCU its first loss of the season, the all eyes turned toward Tuscaloosa, Alabama. In that moment, the No. 6 Crimson Tide's hopes of making the College Football Playoff heated up. With two-loss Alabama being forced into the discussion, Nick Saban began lobbying for his team to be considered for the final spot in the field, even joining the broadcast crew during halftime of the Big Ten Championship Game to state his team's case. Some flaws in Saban's arguments were evident, however. So let's break down some of the factors that prevent Alabama from joining the four-team College Football Playoff field in relation to Saban's arguments. It doesn't have a quality win "We lost two games, on the road in a tough league, to top-10 teams -- one top-five team on the last play of the game." Alabama's best win is a one-point victory over No. 20 Texas in Week 2, and that win included 15 accepted penalties, plenty of miscues and an inability to move the ball on a consistent basis despite having Heisman Trophy winner Bryce Young -- who was healthy at the time -- taking the snaps. Is there another quality win? The only other ranked victory is a 30-6 decision over No. 24 Mississippi State. Let's be real, if we're talking about a win over Mississippi State being one of a team's signature wins, that speaks volumes on how easy this trek should have been. The committee does talk about "game control", and Alabama didn't exactly shine in that area either. A very mediocre Texas A&M team had a shot at the end zone to spring a potential upset in Tuscaloosa as time expired, and Ole Miss had a similar chance to tie -- and win with an extra point -- in Oxford, Mississippi. Let's not forget the Arkansas game that, despite the 49-26 final, was way closer than the score indicates. Alabama's case for the CFP really centers around quality losses to No. 7 Tennessee and No. 14 LSU. If a team's primary argument is its losses, that speaks volumes. Other teams have better cases "We shouldn't just be looking at metrics of one loss and two losses. Who are the best teams?" TCU lost in overtime to Kansas State in the Big 12 Championship Game in what was the Horned Frogs' first loss of the season. What makes its case unique is that it already beat every team on the schedule -- including this same Kansas State team in the regular season. Essentially, they played their way into a chance to lose in a rematch. TCU's quality wins include the victory over Kansas State and a seven-point win over Texas in Austin, Texas -- a comparable result to the one-point win Alabama had in the same building. Oh, and there's the obvious fact that a one-loss team has one fewer loss than a two-loss team, but that's just basic math. Ohio State has a much better case on top of that same super-complicated math above. The Buckeyes' signature win is a 44-31 win at No. 8 Penn State, which the committee obviously loves. It also has that 11-point win over No. 21 Notre Dame, a team which will probably find itself in the top 20 in the final rankings on Sunday. Sure, the 45-23 home loss to Michigan last week wasn't great, but the Wolverines are the second-ranked team in the country. If we are judging losses, one loss to the second-ranked team in the country is still better than two losses to Tennessee and an LSU team that could fall out of the top 20 after a 50-30 drubbing at the hands of Georgia on Saturday in the SEC Championship Game. In reality, Tennessee has a better case than Alabama. Aside from the obvious heads-up win over the Crimson Tide, the Volunteers stomped LSU 40-13 in Baton Rouge, Looisiana, the same place in which Alabama lost to those same Tigers. Vegas odds don't matter "If we played any of these teams that are on the edge of getting in, would we be the underdog? Or would we be the favorite?" Saban lobbied for his team using gambling odds. Seriously? We're going to use gambling odds to try to make a case? Game lines are used to make money for oddsmakers, which means it tries to get comparable money on both sides. Yes, Alabama is favored quite a bit because -- breaking news here -- it is a pretty good team. But the name-brand of Alabama also matters a lot to people who dabble in investing. Plus, it stands to mention that Alabama is 3-5-1 against the spread against Power Five opponents this year, so it's not like you can trust the Crimson Tide to actually match that Vegas hype.

I don't see a performance by Bama this whole season that would bring me to call them a favorite over TCU (maybe Mississippi State?). And, again, I don't think TCU has much of a chance to win their next game.

Chip the WonderRacist neglecting to point out Tulane's loss to Southern Miss (6-6) the very next week... Priceless. It's nice he never stops to wonder why everyone on this board considers him to be the message board equivalent of a skidmark.

Everyone has years of programming to think that Bama is better almost all the time. This year, they simply aren't. Sure, it can be fun watching Bryce Young run around and make the opponent's defense look silly every now and then. But rest of the product is lacking compared to most years.

I myself question TCU's ability to win the title. But unlike the great majority of years in the last dozen or so, what makes anyone think Bama would be a strong contender THIS year? They have been FAR from formidable. The o-line might be their weakest in a long time. The receivers are a huge drop off from last year. They have lost twice to multiple-loss teams and they arguably have another 2-3 TCU-esque games they could easily have lost. I would not count on Vegas favoring Bama at all. The last two games against highly-ranked foes for them resulted in a loss and a 6-point win (versus a now 4-loss team).

TCU vs Bama per the ever-lovely Heather Dinich: https://www.espn.com/college-football/insider/story/_/id/35173843/college-football-playoff-edge-final-ranking TCU vs. Alabama The common opponent: Texas On Sept. 10, in the second game of the season, Alabama won at Texas 20-19. On Nov. 12, TCU won at Texas 17-10. Alabama's offense found more success (374 yards) against the Longhorns than TCU (283 yards), despite scoring only three more points than the Horned Frogs. The Tide also had a stretch with six straight punts, and there were dropped passes and 11 first-half penalties. The Tide also faced Texas backup quarterback Hudson Card for most of the game after starter Quinn Ewers was injured in the first quarter. TCU played arguably its best defensive game of the season, holding running back Bijan Robinson to 29 yards. The Frogs allowed just 199 total yards, and limited Ewers to 17-of-39 passing and forced an interception. The Horned Frogs held Texas to a field goal on consecutive drives inside the TCU 10 in the second half. EDGE: TCU Résumé Entering Saturday, the Horned Frogs were No. 1 in ESPN's strength of record metric, but No. 36 in strength of schedule behind Ohio State (35th), Alabama (eighth) and Tennessee (seventh). TCU's nonconference lineup of Tarleton, Colorado and SMU doesn't include a Power 5 opponent with a winning record, while Alabama had the nonconference win at Texas. TCU is currently 2-1 against CFP top 25 teams, with wins against No. 10 Kansas State and No. 20 Texas, and then the title game loss to K-State. Although TCU lost Saturday, it can still claim a win against the Big 12 champs. TCU has four wins against opponents over .500 (Oklahoma State, K-State, Texas Tech and Texas). Alabama is 2-2 against CFP top 25 teams. Its best win is against No. 20 Texas, followed by No. 24 Mississippi State. Its losses are to No. 7 Tennessee and No. 14 LSU, which finished as four-loss SEC runner-up to Georgia. Alabama has three wins against Power 5 teams over .500 (Texas, Mississippi State and Ole Miss). EDGE: TCU The losses TCU lost its last game by three points. Alabama lost two games, both on the road, by a combined four points. Both teams lost to ranked opponents. TCU lost to a top-10 conference champion. No. 14 LSU is likely to sink further following its 50-30 loss to Georgia in the SEC championship game. EDGE: TCU Final prediction: No. 3 TCU maintains its current position, with Ohio State earning the No. 4 spot.

Ignore that those close losses were to multi-loss teams that have been badly exposed. Ignore the multiple other close calls...