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Everything posted by dntn31

  1. STA beat SFA in 2021... the team that beat IMG...
  2. I'm not sure if technology has advanced far enough yet. Maybe in a few years...
  3. Here's the same data, but from Massey (omitting IMG for consistency with your list): SJB (CA) - 63.86 (#2) Guyer (TX) - 56.12 (#7) Center Grover (IN) - 50.51 (#44) SFA (MD) - 47.48 (#70) Collins Hill (GA) - 46.03 (#106) SJC (DC) - 45.66 (#112) Kahuku (HI) - 43.70 (#150) Thompson (AL) - 43.25 (#161) Venice (FL) - 39.41 (#298) Bishop Gorman (NV) - 38.44 (#347) Bixby (OK) - 31.50 (#885)
  4. Comp Poll: Updated 2021-12-27 Calpreps has updated with Kahuku's 49-14 win over St. Louis and Kahuku moves up to #8 over at CalPreps as a result. Massey has the result updated on Kahuku's individual team page but the overall rankings haven't been updated. There is still one more game in Hawaii to be played this Thursday. I'll check back again next week and see if either CalPreps or Massey changes as a result.
  5. Nice, I have a Galaxy Watch 2 Active, but was waiting for the new Pixel Watch to get a new one. How do you like it so far?
  6. Could well be, but it more than likely involved alcohol and view of the Pacific Ocean.
  7. Don't take the back and forth the wrong way. I don't troll for the sake of trolling. I really do value different perspectives, so the back and forth is really me wanting to understand your thought process and perhaps glean some insight (and perhaps with a bit of "cheek" thrown in). I was definitely more of a SoCal homer before I started posting on the "national" boards and I watch a lot more national games than I did before this. So take this as me genuinely wanting to continue on this journey of having a more holistic understanding of the national HSFB landscape. At the end of the day, I just want to know which 5 teams you think would go 10-3 or better with Servite's schedule and I'm not sure I've seen you provide an actual response to this question except for some vagueness that didn't actually answer the question being asked. If you want, I'll give you my list (I'll even go up to 6 teams) that I think could likely go 10-3 or better with the same schedule (in no particular order): 1. Mater Dei 2. SJB 3. Centennial 4. STA 5. SFA 6. IMG
  8. Was that the post where you said you could but you didn't? Or did I miss something.
  9. I only ask because you posted this: I don't necessarily disagree that seeing a 10-3 team in the top 5 is a little jarring, but context is certainly important. I'm just wondering if you already had something ready to go to back up your initial post or if you were just shooting from the hip...
  10. I'm fine if we disagree. I'm just curious which 5 teams you think would do better.
  11. It actually started a little before that. After Mater Dei missed the playoffs in 2011 and Rollinson saw what Negro was doing over at SJB, Rollinson went to Negro to talk about how to run a successful HSFB program in the modern age of the internet, youth camps, social media and where practically every game is streamed. Rollinson is on the record saying as much. The rest is, well as they say, history....
  12. I actually think Massey has the better projection tool:
  13. I suppose the counterargument is: which 5 teams would go 10-3 or better with the same schedule? Playing SJB and MD back to back twice in the span of 34 days would be a tall order for any team in the country.
  14. I'd trust this man, he came in *checks notes* 12th in this year's pick em...
  15. It seems you guys are dancing around nole's point (or at least the spirit of it). Relying on hypotheticals wouldn't be necessary if the best teams in FL were forced to play each other.
  16. The Central/Gorman game was in Florida. The STA/Gorman game was in Nevada. Point taken though. Missed FGs were big in SJB/STA as well.
  17. Not sure what Massey uses in his current algorithm, but this is what his thesis has to say on this:
  18. It seems like this is just semantics then. Generally the word "bias" carries a connotation that the bias directly influences the output of some process. In the case of the computer algorithms, I think it's difficult to argue that the bias does more than indirectly influence the output - barring precognition. When you say "the computers are biased" it could be easily inferred that Freeman/Massey are purposely "inflating ratings for certain teams" or the converse.
  19. These are all things he publishes on his site, it's not really new information. These are all things that are set in advance of the games being played for the current year. Is the insinuation that Ned knows that these yearly "tinkerings" will give CA teams an edge? I mean if he wanted to put his foot on the scales to give CA an edge, he could just do that without actually publishing anything on his site. Or do you think he's trying to be extra sneaky by thinking that people will deem his ratings more trustworthy (despite him actually putting his foot on the scaled behind the scenes) if he only gives the appearance of being more open about how his ratings are produced?
  20. I can't remember where I read it but I remember reading two things: 1) He uses the past 2 years of data to seed the ratings for the current year 2) Eventually the starting ratings are filtered out as more data becomes available for the current year (same claim as CalPreps)
  21. I think this is an insinuation that you have to prove or at least provide more evidence for in order for it to be constructive. I don't think anyone disagrees that Ned has "tinkered" with the algorithm (fwiw so has Massey). What's open to debate is what the goal of that "tinkering" was.
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