State of the Stock Market

[DarterBlue]

Despite plenty to rattle it during my absence over the past two weeks, the stock market has soldiered on. It was up nicely the week before last and stood its ground last week even though DJT gave it plenty of reasons to sell off with his Tweets. Over the two week period, the NASDAQ recorded several new highs and the Russell 2000 a few new highs. On the other hand, the DOW and NYSE composite remain mired in their trading range. Perhaps the best clue as to continued direction may be the performance of the S&P 500 which over the two week period has worked its way grudgingly higher. 

As a result of the market's resilience, my son, acting as my proxy, had an easy job as all of my five positions: GRUB, CRM, BABA, FND and the September 2018, NASDAQ 100 Options held up well during my absence. Thus, none of the five were sold. In my absence, the aggregate profits in these positions grew by $3,719, which brings the profits earned since January 30, 2018 when I resumed trading to $20,714 as of Friday's close. Today, they increased by another $1,059 due to GOOGLE's parent Alphabet beating earnings solidly just after the close. These results made the Options position go up substantially in the fifteen minute window after the close. Such performance is factored into my closing open equity positions by my broker. With that, I am about $6,300 off my peak profits earned as of 6/15/2018. If the market is reasonably healthy, the GOOGLE beat should set the stage for a solid up day tomorrow. 

I continue to be surprised by the market's overall resilience. I am sure that eventually the current bull will end badly, as its foundations are looking increasingly suspect. However, as a trend follower, I will choose to respect its power until it becomes clear that it is on its last legs. We are not there yet. Thus, I will remain long my current positions. 

On another note, @HSFBfan may have a big winner on his hands. The trick for him will be how he handles it, as he is not a wily, experienced trader. However, I have to say that MPX has progressed in textbook fashion. I would not buy it here as it's extended. However, if it were to go sideways for a month or two and then emerge powerfully out of that basing pattern, it would, at that point, from a purely technical perspective, be a screaming buy!

[HSFBfan]

Ohhhh its gonna take off more and more lol. Hit over 20 a share today woooooooooo.....up 16% so far 

[DarterBlue]

On 7/23/2018 at 8:24 PM, DarterBlue said:

If the market is reasonably healthy, the GOOGLE beat should set the stage for a solid up day tomorrow. 

The market proved to be unhealthy in no uncertain terms. Despite opening up 1% higher, the NASDAQ closed down on the day staging a stunning reversal! The Russell 2000 and MID Cap Index also closed down after opening higher. The above three indices, together with the NASDAQ 100, have been the best performers this year. In fact they have been the only ones to go on to new highs after the market topped out January 30. I would be very surprised if we are able to go much higher without their leadership. And I say this despite the fact that the DOW held most of its gains well. The next couple of weeks may get very interesting.

On the day, my positions opened up over $3,000 higher. At the close, I was down $1,660, as the reversals referenced above caused my positions to swing by nearly $5,000. 

Tomorrow before the open, GRUB reports its quarterly earnings. However, the conference call with analysts does not occur till after the open. This is straight up amateur hour. But I have no option but to give management a pass. Needless to say GRUB will probably make a big move either up or down on the news. After breaking out in June, it has failed to make much price progress and as of today's close was just above the breakout. It should be interesting!

[DarterBlue]

19 hours ago, DarterBlue said:

The market proved to be unhealthy in no uncertain terms. Despite opening up 1% higher, the NASDAQ closed down on the day staging a stunning reversal! The Russell 2000 and MID Cap Index also closed down after opening higher. The above three indices, together with the NASDAQ 100, have been the best performers this year. In fact they have been the only ones to go on to new highs after the market topped out January 30. I would be very surprised if we are able to go much higher without their leadership. And I say this despite the fact that the DOW held most of its gains well. The next couple of weeks may get very interesting.

On the day, my positions opened up over $3,000 higher. At the close, I was down $1,660, as the reversals referenced above caused my positions to swing by nearly $5,000. 

Tomorrow before the open, GRUB reports its quarterly earnings. However, the conference call with analysts does not occur till after the open. This is straight up amateur hour. But I have no option but to give management a pass. Needless to say GRUB will probably make a big move either up or down on the news. After breaking out in June, it has failed to make much price progress and as of today's close was just above the breakout. It should be interesting!

Market Action: Today, the market was in bifurcation mode once again until the final 45 minutes of trading. Up to that time, the NASDAQ indices were doing fine while most of the rest of the indices not so well. Then in the final 45 minutes news broke that the meeting between DJT and the European Trade Representative, had gone well for the USA as concessions had been extracted from the EU. This led to an immediate pop in all the indices which finished in the black across the board. With that said, smaller, secondary stocks clearly lagged and the DOW and NYSE stocks were up to any degree only because of the announcement on trade. 

After the close, Facebook (FB), disappointed analysts with their second quarter results and this sent the stock, as well as the futures tumbling. Thus we can expect, at least as of now, a weak open as of tomorrow. So, despite the positive close, we may be back to yo yo status tomorrow. This is not an easy game even when you are winning!

Ba Da Bing: GRUB's results were loved by Wall Street. So much so that the stock was up by over 23% on the day as it catapulted to new all time highs. I am now up over 34% on this position with today's results factored in. As a result of this, my positions were up a whopping 13,725 on the day, or 3%. Thus, I am now at all time high profit status for the year as, including unrealized gains in the open positions, I am up over $33,000. At the 4 pm close I was actually up over $15.2 k on the day. However, FB's collapse in the after market caused my options position to lose approximately $1,500 of it's day's gains. FB is a very large component of the NASDAQ 100. 

Regardless, I will take what I got. Tomorrow is another day. Next week FND reports on Thursday before the bell. It would be nice to have another upside explosion from this one. But we will see what we will see. 

[BigDrop]

For my Master’s thesis I studied the effect of the Depression on the amusement park industry ( my field for almost 40 years).  From 1928 or ‘29 to 1932 the market literally lost 80% of its value.  Introduction of tariffs were a contributing reason.  There was also an approx. 50% loss around 2008. In 1929 there were over 1,500 amusement parks in the US, a fifth of this number in ‘34.

Today I am retired and own about 5% stock; most everything else are municipal bonds, corporate bonds, bond funds including dbltx and pimix as well as a blended fund vwinx (65-35 fixed income and div stocks).  Also a couple of Reits and yes, cds (5 years are paying 3.3% w/ FDIC ins-with reinvestment that’s about 3.4% which I accept.  

Trump is risking a lot with tariffs.  I simply do not feel comfortable with them.  

I must also note that my tolerance for risk now (retired) is nonexistent.  Inflation can be devastating to bonds and REITS but in ‘08 this was limited to about 10-15%.  VWINX took a 23-24% hit.

Overall I made 3.9% in my Sep Ira for ‘17and 4.2% for my separate joint acct with my wife. 90% of this includes a number of 4 3/4% and 5 % 30 year AA+ State munis all of which I bought six or seven years ago but all may be “called” at some time over the next four years.  Several muni tax funds pay 3.2% or so.  When you factor in all munis & muni funds are federal and state tax free the 4.2% return is really equivalent to almost six per cent before tax.

i must note here that I have little if any interest in growth.  It is all about generating as safe of income as I can.  I am not a fan of annuities.  In my Sep Ira I do not have any bond longer than 3-5 years right now.  Pimix is the riskiest that I own and it pays about 5%.

[DarterBlue]

On 7/26/2018 at 12:51 AM, BigDrop said:

For my Master’s thesis I studied the effect of the Depression on the amusement park industry ( my field for almost 40 years).  From 1928 or ‘29 to 1932 the market literally lost 80% of its value.  Introduction of tariffs were a contributing reason.  There was also an approx. 50% loss around 2008. In 1929 there were over 1,500 amusement parks in the US, a fifth of this number in ‘34.

Today I am retired and own about 5% stock; most everything else are municipal bonds, corporate bonds, bond funds including dbltx and pimix as well as a blended fund vwinx (65-35 fixed income and div stocks).  Also a couple of Reits and yes, cds (5 years are paying 3.3% w/ FDIC ins-with reinvestment that’s about 3.4% which I accept.  

Trump is risking a lot with tariffs.  I simply do not feel comfortable with them.  

I must also note that my tolerance for risk now (retired) is nonexistent.  Inflation can be devastating to bonds and REITS but in ‘08 this was limited to about 10-15%.  VWINX took a 23-24% hit.

Overall I made 3.9% in my Sep Ira for ‘17and 4.2% for my separate joint acct with my wife. 90% of this includes a number of 4 3/4% and 5 % 30 year AA+ State munis all of which I bought six or seven years ago but all may be “called” at some time over the next four years.  Several muni tax funds pay 3.2% or so.  When you factor in all munis & muni funds are federal and state tax free the 4.2% return is really equivalent to almost six per cent before tax.

i must note here that I have little if any interest in growth.  It is all about generating as safe of income as I can.  I am not a fan of annuities.  In my Sep Ira I do not have any bond longer than 3-5 years right now.  Pimix is the riskiest that I own and it pays about 5%.

As a retired individual who, historically, has not devoted any time to trading the financial markets, I think you are doing exactly the right thing with your money, provided there is enough saved in your retirement funds to not run out before you die. 

The current stock market is extremely overvalued relative to historic norms. As such, I am sure another vicious bear market lies on the horizon sometime in the future. I thought it had arrived in late January 2018 when the indicators I use to trade flashed a number of warning signs. As of yesterday's market close it seems I was wrong, as both NASDAQ indices notched new highs and the S&P broke out of its trading range. 

Nevertheless, the fact that the bear may not be here yet, does not negate the fact the market is seriously overvalued. Couple that with the fact we have not had a bear market since the stock market bottomed in March 2009 after the devastating bear market of late 2007 through March 2009, and I am pretty certain the next bear market will be very severe. 

I have stayed long since late April 2018, because I consider myself an experienced trader who will be able to detect when the gig is up for this cycle and who is not so arrogant and/or stubborn to ignore the warning signs when the market makes its final top before the bear gets here. For all I know it could be tomorrow, as Facebook issued a very non bullish picture of its earnings and revenues going forward last night and was down about 24% in after hours trading as a consequence. Given FB's out sized market capitalization, its earnings disappointment may well be the canary in the coal mine. However, it is still too early to tell as I type this, as FB's issues could be unique to FB based on the nature of both its business model and services provided.

I will close be reiterating that I think you are doing the right thing with your money and hope you have a long and happy retirement!

 

[DarterBlue]

For the Week: The stock market was bifurcated. Some indices did quite well; others sucked wind. The DOW gained over 1.5% and was the star. Next in line was the NYSE which gained over 1%. The lagging indices were the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100, and the Russell 2000 and S&P Mid Cap. These indices lost at least 1% on the week and in the case of the Russell 2%. I consider the divergence to be significant in that the DOW and NYSE were the indices that most lagged following the stock market turmoil that began at the end of January 2018. I am not sure it means overall weakness from here but it bears watching.

Rotation from one type of index to another is not uncommon. However, when it comes at the expense of the other actually losing ground, particularly when the other index has the growth names, it is not usually health. In his seminal work, Stock Market Logic, Norman Fosback demonstrated through documented research that the best time to buy beaten down names, the kind that currently reside in the NYSE and DOW, are coming out of a deep bear market. In his book, which is dated, but in my opinion still relevant, he stated that this seemed to be because in deep bear markets, many members of such groups begin trading at liquidation value, since there is doubt that they will survive as viable companies. 

In mature bull markets, the opposite is true. The best performers have historically been the high flying growth names of that cycle. The logic behind this is that some investors have become complacent and thrown caution to the wind. Other investors buy these names because they have missed most of the bull run and are desperate to catch up. So, given the maturity of this current bull market, if it is to continue for awhile, it is to be expected that growth will continue to lead. Well this week growth clearly flashed a very bright yellow light. Could code red be far off? I don't know. 

Personal Performance: On the week I had my best trading day of the year Wednesday, gaining over $13,700. I also had my second worst trading day of the year today, losing almost $8,000. At the end of it all I was up $2,700 on the week. However, with the exception of GRUB, which was up big following its earnings report Wednesday morning, my other positions all lost ground on the week with FND and CRM taking significant hits. Thus, I view the overall strength of my positions as being inferior to what they were last weekend.

Next Tuesday, after market close, Apple reports its earnings. Both the actual numbers and the market's reaction to them on Wednesday, will likely determine whether I stay long, go short or retreat to the sidelines. Why wait on Apple? It is possible I won't. However, assuming Monday and Tuesday are not unusually bad days, I will. I will wait on Apple because while I don't directly own it (I have exposure through my options position), bad numbers or a bad reaction to the numbers will likely mean that the kind of position I am currently long will suck wind, as while they are all less mature companies than Apple, they are all high beta, growth companies. 

In the meantime I will just wait and see as I have my plan in place, as well as the intention to stick to it. 

[dan in daytona]

On 7/26/2018 at 12:51 AM, BigDrop said:

For my Master’s thesis I studied the effect of the Depression on the amusement park industry ( my field for almost 40 years).  From 1928 or ‘29 to 1932 the market literally lost 80% of its value.  Introduction of tariffs were a contributing reason.  There was also an approx. 50% loss around 2008. In 1929 there were over 1,500 amusement parks in the US, a fifth of this number in ‘34.

Today I am retired and own about 5% stock; most everything else are municipal bonds, corporate bonds, bond funds including dbltx and pimix as well as a blended fund vwinx (65-35 fixed income and div stocks).  Also a couple of Reits and yes, cds (5 years are paying 3.3% w/ FDIC ins-with reinvestment that’s about 3.4% which I accept.  

Trump is risking a lot with tariffs.  I simply do not feel comfortable with them.  

I must also note that my tolerance for risk now (retired) is nonexistent.  Inflation can be devastating to bonds and REITS but in ‘08 this was limited to about 10-15%.  VWINX took a 23-24% hit.

Overall I made 3.9% in my Sep Ira for ‘17and 4.2% for my separate joint acct with my wife. 90% of this includes a number of 4 3/4% and 5 % 30 year AA+ State munis all of which I bought six or seven years ago but all may be “called” at some time over the next four years.  Several muni tax funds pay 3.2% or so.  When you factor in all munis & muni funds are federal and state tax free the 4.2% return is really equivalent to almost six per cent before tax.

i must note here that I have little if any interest in growth.  It is all about generating as safe of income as I can.  I am not a fan of annuities.  In my Sep Ira I do not have any bond longer than 3-5 years right now.  Pimix is the riskiest that I own and it pays about 5%.

Shout-out to grand ole Kennywood Park, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.......carry on Darter......  

[BigDrop]

And Westview, too.

First rose the Thunderbolt in the early ‘70’s.

[DarterBlue]

MONDAY: After opening flat, the market had another bad day, with the NASDAQ growth stocks getting bludgeoned for the third day in a row. And for the second day, there was no news to account for the weakness. At the close, both NASDAQ indices were sitting on their fifty day exponential moving averages which represents major support. Earlier in the day, both NASDAQ indices had broken this key support level. In the three days beginning Thursday with Facebook's disappointing earnings, the market's complexion has changed decidedly for the worse. While the other indices have not been beaten up as badly as the NASDAQ indices and the Russell 2000 small cap index (which also closed just below its fifty day moving average today) they too are starting to show signs of rolling over. In any case, if the NASDAQ and Russell cannot lead going forward, I don't expect the DOW, NYSE and S&P to lead for reasons explained in my posts last week. Tomorrow, therefore, is a critical day for the market. 

On the day, I took it on the chin losing $7,651. And this only partially reflects the collapse of Texas Roadhouse after the bell. So, in reality, I probably lost another $700. While this sucks, more to the point is where we go from here. If the NASDAQ indices and Russell cannot hold their 50 moving averages tomorrow ahead of Apple's earnings after the bell, I believe I will sell: CRM, the NASDAQ options position, the Texas Roadhouse Options position if I can get a price for it, and Alibaba. I am inclined to hold GRUB and FND for the time being. 

I will post my course of action no later than the end of the trading day tomorrow. Assuming I do significantly lighten my long positions, I will be looking for an opportunity to go short should the market continue to roll over. 

[DarterBlue]

18 hours ago, DarterBlue said:

I will post my course of action no later than the end of the trading day tomorrow. Assuming I do significantly lighten my long positions, I will be looking for an opportunity to go short should the market continue to roll over. 

So far, I have been able to get rid of only one of the ten Options purchased on Texas Roadhouse, obtaining a price of 25 dollars for it net of commissions. The other 9 are still on a limit sell for the same price. 

The market is currently up, but is trading wide and loose as the bids and asks are unstable. The Fed will make a pronouncement at 2 pm tomorrow. It is the great expectation that interest rates will be held at current targets. Also, given the recent shakiness of the market, I don't expect they will say anything to rock the boat. Stocks will probably hold on to at least some of their gains going into the close. 

The big test is, how will the market react to Apple's earnings after the bell? Going into the start of the week, the game plan was to hold the remainder of my current positions into Apple's earnings. Assuming the market is not subject to a violent selloff between now and the close, this is still my plan. Should the market react very negatively to Apple, then I will be significantly lightening my load in the morning. 

[dan in daytona]

24 minutes ago, DarterBlue said:

Should the market react very negatively to Apple, then I will be significantly lightening my load in the morning. 

Since when did you adopt the language of a construction worker, care to elaborate?

[DarterBlue]

20 minutes ago, dan in daytona said:

Since when did you adopt the language of a construction worker, care to elaborate?

I have had many jobs over the course of my life. 

[dan in daytona]

11 minutes ago, DarterBlue said:

I have had many jobs over the course of my life. 

Then you would know how crowded the Port-A-Potty's are in the early morning hours at all job sites. Many a load is lightened..... Please excuse my uncouth language. I wouldn't want to offend the Republicans.

[DarterBlue]

3 hours ago, DarterBlue said:

The big test is, how will the market react to Apple's earnings after the bell? Going into the start of the week, the game plan was to hold the remainder of my current positions into Apple's earnings. Assuming the market is not subject to a violent selloff between now and the close, this is still my plan. Should the market react very negatively to Apple, then I will be significantly lightening my load in the morning. 

So far, so good. Apple beat on earnings, revenues and outlook. The stock is up about 3% which is no big deal. But at least at tomorrow's open, it probably staves off another tech selloff. Therefore, if I am correct, I will not sell the open, but rather see if any opening strength can be maintained. It could be that the recent weakness was  just a rather violent pullback to the 50 day. However, it did "feel bad," so we will see. 

[DarterBlue]

Market Action: This old bull market is one of the most resilient I have ever seen. Despite its age, overvaluation and the volatility of the current occupant of 1600 Pennsylvania, each time it looks like the run is finally up, it just bounces right back. With the tariff wars with China back in full force and weakness in stocks overseas, the market had every reason to crater today and it did not. For while the open was weak, the NASDAQ indices shook the weakness within the first hour and eventually all but the DOW and NYSE joined in the fun. In the process Apple surmounted the trillion dollar valuation mark.

In 2003, I owned this stock and actually scored a over a double in it in 2003/04. It is one of only 11 doubles or more that I have bagged over 28 years of trading the market. You may ask why didn't I hold it; for if you did you would be up several thousand percent in the position today? The short answer is it is not what I do, for I am a trader. No, not a day trader, as Garden State Baller has characterized me, for I seldom make one day or less trades unless something I bought has a huge move up or down in a very short time period. No, I am a position trader that seeks to realize profits of 30% or more in my winners. Thus, my successful purchases are usually held over several months. On the other hand, my losers are usually gone within weeks, although there are exceptions. I generally try to make the profit loss ratio be in the region of 3/1 or better (three times the money on the profitable trades). Of course, I don't always succeed. 

For now, the market seems to be temporarily out of the woods. However, I would not be surprised to see very choppy action in August with the market reacting to the news of the day, including the latest Tweets of our President. We may end up with a lot of volatility but very little actual movement when the month comes to a close. 

Bada Boom: On Wednesday of last week, Grubhub was a big winner for me gaining about 23% on its earnings report in one day. Today, the opposite happened as while Floor and Decor beat estimated earnings for the current quarter, it revised its forward guidance for the third and fourth quarters down. Given that this is a growth stock with a premium valuation the stock was punished severely for this transgression and was down 17% on the day. My losses on this one position today were approximately $7,000. Fortunately, the other positions with the exception of Alibaba bailed me out. So, on a net basis I was down $2,875 on the day. 

At the day's close, I maintained all of my open positions. However, I am seriously contemplating selling Alibaba as our trade row with China seems to be holding it back. It also has not helped that the Shanghai market, where it principally trades, is in bear market territory. You may ask, why not consider selling Floor and Decor, too, given its very negative reaction to its earnings? The answer is because in the conference call with analysts, management's explanation of what caused the downward revision in earnings and revenues for the remainder of the year appeared logically consistent and plausible (it buys 47% of its product from China, the impact of last year's hurricanes on business in 2017, and the planned opening of new stores in Seattle and Boston, too high cost area that are eventually expected to have profits exceeding its current store base). Besides even with those revisions, the company's overall growth story remains intact. With that said, after this huge tumble, you would expect that it should find support over the next week within the current price range as from a valuation standpoint the stock is suddenly a lot cheaper. Should it fail to find such support, then the time to part ways will be sometime in the middle of the month if not before. For now, Grubhub and Salesforce are acting decently and the Options on the NASDAQ 100 have regained their traction, so I will give these positions a chance to mine gold.  

[dan in daytona]

Apple's worth surpassed the 1 trillion dollar mark earlier today. NBC claimed that if in 1997 you had $1,000 in stock it would now be valued at $450,000+ today. Wow, nice return...

[DarterBlue]

3 hours ago, dan in daytona said:

Apple's worth surpassed the 1 trillion dollar mark earlier today. NBC claimed that if in 1997 you had $1,000 in stock it would now be valued at $450,000+ today. Wow, nice return...

NBC's claim is about correct. And, if you had bought it in 1996, when it seemed it was going to go bankrupt, just before Steve Jobs came back to lead it for the second time, you would be worth close to a million for each thousand invested. I bought it in 2003. I had about $18,000 invested in the purchase. I sold it 11 months later for a profit of about 120%. Had I kept it, till today, the $18,000 would be worth about $1,000,000. But that is mere conjecture. For I have never held a stock position for more than 3 years and I have never taken a draw down from peak to trough (pullback in value) of more than 35%. Therefore, I would have had to have treated Apple totally against the grain of how I treat my positions to have kept it for fifteen plus years through at least two draw downs of more than 50%. In short, it would have never happened.   

[DarterBlue]

Market Update: In the two weeks since I have posted on the market, stocks have mostly soldiered on in a belabored sort of way. During this stretch both NASDAQ indices and the S&P Mid Cap indices have made new all time highs. However, the S&P has not been there yet and the DOW is relatively far away. The action has been weird with one day the market being up and the next down. What has been even stranger is the lack of any clear leadership in that on up days, all averages have not been in gear. Thus, on one day, the NASDAQ indices are relatively strong and the S&P and DOW type stocks week, but then on the next positive day, the opposite is true. Strong bull markets are usually characterized by broad based strength. We don't currently have that! A look at the new highs versus new lows list is further proof of the bifurcation as on any given day there are as many stocks making new 52 week lows as there are making new 52 week highs. 

One way or the other this current situation should resolve itself soon. Should the S&P manage to notch a new all time high, this will be the oldest bull market ever recorded on all of the indices but the DOW in US market history!

Personal Note: Over the past two weeks I have taken a step back. On Tuesday this week, I got rid of BABA for a 17% loss of $6,544. I got out at prices ranging from 169.99 to 172.09. The remaining 9 options on Texas Roadhouse also expired worthless, leaving me a net loss on that trade of $1,456. Year to date I am still up approximately $10,000 as solid gains in two of the three open stock positions (GRUB and CRM), offset a nasty loss in FND. The NASDAQ 100 option position is still doing okay. However with expiration just over a month away, I may close it out this week. 

[ohio]

5 hours ago, DarterBlue said:

Market Update: In the two weeks since I have posted on the market, stocks have mostly soldiered on in a belabored sort of way. During this stretch both NASDAQ indices and the S&P Mid Cap indices have made new all time highs. However, the S&P has not been there yet and the DOW is relatively far away. The action has been weird with one day the market being up and the next down. What has been even stranger is the lack of any clear leadership in that on up days, all averages have not been in gear. Thus, on one day, the NASDAQ indices are relatively strong and the S&P and DOW type stocks week, but then on the next positive day, the opposite is true. Strong bull markets are usually characterized by broad based strength. We don't currently have that! A look at the new highs versus new lows list is further proof of the bifurcation as on any given day there are as many stocks making new 52 week lows as there are making new 52 week highs. 

One way or the other this current situation should resolve itself soon. Should the S&P manage to notch a new all time high, this will be the oldest bull market ever recorded on all of the indices but the DOW in US market history!

Personal Note: Over the past two weeks I have taken a step back. On Tuesday this week, I got rid of BABA for a 17% loss of $6,544. I got out at prices ranging from 169.99 to 172.09. The remaining 9 options on Texas Roadhouse also expired worthless, leaving me a net loss on that trade of $1,456. Year to date I am still up approximately $10,000 as solid gains in two of the three open stock positions (GRUB and CRM), offset a nasty loss in FND. The NASDAQ 100 option position is still doing okay. However with expiration just over a month away, I may close it out this week. 

What do you think about these stocks:  WMT, ETSY, TTD, AMD, COKE, AAPL, and CSCO.  Have they gone up too much, or are they looking for a pullback?

Also, BABA looks like a possible buy for the short term

 

 

[DarterBlue]

8 hours ago, ohio said:

What do you think about these stocks:  WMT, ETSY, TTD, AMD, COKE, AAPL, and CSCO. 

Of your list, ETSY and CSCO would appeal to me most. TTD is also a very powerful stock and would bear watching. I would not touch WMT and am neutral on the others..

BABA may bounce, but it has also completely broken down. It reports earnings later this week and could well bounce big time on the report. I parted ways with it because the loss in it had exceeded my threshold. I think the bear market in Chinese stocks (Shanghai index is down more than 23% from its peak) and the trade tensions with China have negatively affected it. 

[ohio]

17 hours ago, DarterBlue said:

Of your list, ETSY and CSCO would appeal to me most. TTD is also a very powerful stock and would bear watching. I would not touch WMT and am neutral on the others..

I'm a little spooked now.  Bought WMT at 88.11

 Still am holding on to WMT, assumed that it was just profit taking the last two days. And their internet sales seem to be improving.  Can I ask why you wouldn' touch them?

My stop loss is at 93, just in case.

[DarterBlue]

On 8/20/2018 at 9:37 PM, ohio said:

I'm a little spooked now.  Bought WMT at 88.11

 Still am holding on to WMT, assumed that it was just profit taking the last two days. And their internet sales seem to be improving.  Can I ask why you wouldn' touch them?

My stop loss is at 93, just in case.

Your stop is tight. So you don't have much at risk. 

Why don't I like WMT? It's pretty simple. I am a growth investor/trader. WMT is a huge company and top line growth is difficult just because of its size. You may be on to a winning trade. It's just something I would not touch. 

[ohio]

On 8/20/2018 at 10:25 PM, DarterBlue said:

Your stop is tight. So you don't have much at risk. 

Why don't I like WMT. It's pretty simple. I am a growth investor/trader. WMT is a huge company and top line growth is difficult just because of its size. You may be on to a winning trade. It's just something I would not touch. 

Appreciate the reply. Hopefully my stop loss won't get activated on WMT.

Dumped one of my two pot stocks today. CRON.  But still holding on to CGC and the other stocks that won't get you high. Feel that CGC has more room to grow even with the recent run-up, but I got my trigger finger ready, cause I know there will be a harsh pull back in the short term to mid term.

Good to see someone else on this site interested in making extra money in the market.

[DarterBlue]

Well the headlines scream longest bull market in history. But the truth is a bit more complicated. It is for the Russell, S&P Mid Cap and NASDAQ indices. But the DOW and S&P have still not surpassed their January 29 highs on a closing basis. So for those widely watched indices, it is still the second longest bull market in history. 

The market closed mostly higher on lower volume. It looked somewhat tired after several days of rising prices. Today I took advantage of the NASDAQ's strength to close out the QQQ Options position. The 14 contracts were sold for prices ranging from 11.10 to 11.19. The net gain after subtracting commissions was $3,455 or 28.5%. So now I am down to three positions: GRUB, CRM and FND. Of the three CRM releases earnings next Thursday.