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Very big election in Ohio tonight


HSFBfan

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16 minutes ago, Bormio said:

Early vote in - Dem was predicted to have a 30% margin - got 26%.  Predicted turnout 220,000 - current vote totals less than 60,000.  So 160,000 votes to make up 6500.  Think he can do it.

Half the vote now in. Dem still leading, albeit by a greatly reduced margin of about 4.8%. The key is the counties where the remainder of the votes are outstanding. It looks to me at this state like the Dem pulls this one out by 2% or so. 

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2 minutes ago, DarterBlue said:

Half the vote now in. Dem still leading, albeit by a greatly reduced margin of about 4.8%. The key is the counties where the remainder of the votes are outstanding. It looks to me at this state like the Dem pulls this one out by 2% or so. 

it's the DarterBlue wave....😉

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Just now, DarterBlue said:

Half the vote now in. Dem still leading, albeit by a greatly reduced margin of about 4.8%. The key is the counties where the remainder of the votes are outstanding. It looks to me at this state like the Dem pulls this one out by 2% or so. 

The outstanding county is Delaware - suburban Columbus - usually very GOP.  None of Election Day vote is in from there.  Franklin County (Columbus) is mostly in, probably another 4000 Dem margin there.  Delaware Co will decide.

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1 minute ago, Bormio said:

The outstanding county is Delaware - suburban Columbus - usually very GOP.  None of Election Day vote is in from there.  Franklin County (Columbus) is mostly in, probably another 4000 Dem margin there.  Delaware Co will decide.

Well that's very interesting. It will show to what extent the well to do educated class still back Trump. Franklin is 65% reported (2/3), so it could give the Dems more than just another 4k if the margin remains the same for the outstanding voters. So they could pick up 8k there IMO. 

But regardless, it's an interesting special election and is probably indicative of what we can expect in the fall!

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1 minute ago, DarterBlue said:

Well that's very interesting. It will show to what extent the well to do educated class still back Trump. Franklin is 65% reported (2/3), so it could give the Dems more than just another 4k if the margin remains the same for the outstanding voters. So they could pick up 8k there IMO. 

But regardless, it's an interesting special election and is probably indicative of what we can expect in the fall!

No, a lot of the Franklin vote was early vote.  Probably only 10,000 votes or so left in Franklin.  The % reporting is % of precincts with Election Day voting in.

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5 minutes ago, Bormio said:

The outstanding county is Delaware - suburban Columbus - usually very GOP.  None of Election Day vote is in from there.  Franklin County (Columbus) is mostly in, probably another 4000 Dem margin there.  Delaware Co will decide.

Repub just took the lead. About 44,000 votes left in Delaware County vs 24,000 left in Franklin. The remainder are just about done. With a quarter of the vote in, for Delaware, the Repub has a very narrow lead. If that continued, The Dem probably gets home by a close margin. Of course this is sheer conjecture, as I have no idea what the outstanding precincts will do. 

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3 minutes ago, Bormio said:

No, a lot of the Franklin vote was early vote.  Probably only 10,000 votes or so left in Franklin.  The % reporting is % of precincts with Election Day voting in.

Well less than 8k Franklin votes left whichever way you slice it. Dem has a very small lead. It totally comes down to Delaware County which still has the majority of its votes outstanding (about 70%+). Currently of the votes counted there (including early votes), the Repub has a slim lead. So, it could be a nail biter!

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