Jump to content

2018 Tier Placement - Final


Sammyswordsman

Recommended Posts

4 hours ago, Pops said:

I don’t defend CP preseason rankings 

the only people that talk about CP preseason rankings are CP detractors 

Calpreps only ranks teams in the preseason based on the coaches info

so a very incomplete body of work they spit out since 80% don’t report anything

and that’s a fact jack 😆

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, hardhit1 said:

Calpreps only ranks teams in the preseason based on the coaches info

so a very incomplete body of work they spit out since 80% don’t report anything

and that’s a fact jack 😆

Did I say otherwise

don’t look at CP until October and, even then, expect it to be fluid weekly based on real results 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 8/11/2018 at 12:32 PM, Pops said:

I don’t defend CP preseason rankings 

the only people that talk about CP preseason rankings are CP detractors 

This year's preseason Calpreps ratings have been particularly worrisome.  I told Ned a few years ago that the ratings were getting out of control and even offered one way to mitigate it.  He kind of blew off the latter and didn't even respond to the former.

There's no way that Mater Dei is 11.6 points better than last year.  Absolutely no chance that St. John Bosco is 31.4 improved.  Conversely, both Loyola and Notre Dame are down around 20 points and in the low 20s?  I know they've struggled in recent years, but those programs will almost always finish in the mid- to high-30s.

Even my alma mater, Salinas, has been pushed down 21.5 points from last year's CCS D-I Open title.  Their new QB just won co-MVP at the University of Washington QB camp... as a junior.  They have a DL that won MVP at both the Idaho and Eastern Washington camps.  Yet, down 21.5 points, huh?

The claim is that by mid-year the preseason ratings go away and the regular values take over.  That's only sorta true.  Things are getting out of control.

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 8/11/2018 at 10:21 AM, Sammyswordsman said:

Right now I have my eye on (4) Nor Cal teams.  Who would be #5.  I have Serra as #4

In my opinion, the top 5 NorCal teams are:  DLS, Folsom, Pittsburg, Serra, and St. Francis.  All of these teams went to a state title game last year and all could again in 2018.  We'll get a pretty decent idea of how good they are this year due to their schedules.

DLS plays Folsom, Bishop Gorman, St. Francis, and probably Pittsburg. 

Folsom plays DLS and Chaminade

Pittsburg plays Corona Centennial, Serra, and likely DLS

Serra plays Gardena Serra, Pittsburg, and St. Francis (possibly twice like last year)

St. Francis plays DLS, Notre Dame, and Serra (again, possibly twice)

 

I'm not entirely sold on Liberty.  They may be good, but they didn't really schedule anyone of major consequence in non-league.  As such, they'll only have one real game to prove themselves (Pittsburg).  If they get to the NCS Open Division, they may get a shot to lose to DLS.

Stockton St. Mary's definitely scheduled aggressively, but I'm unsure they'll be able to meet those challenges.  Pittsburg and Mater Dei await them, as all as a potential playoff meeting with Folsom.

Charmichael Jesuit has been mentioned.  We'll find out about them in two weeks when they play Folsom.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, Pops said:

I misread read “Serra”

anyway, to me, that name belongs to the only state champion Serra

JSerra and Serra-Gardena are now #2 and #3 among the sera schools 

I see.  We'll find out a lot this year with the San Mateo and Gardena versions going head-to-head.  Looking forward to that game.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, Cal 14 said:

In my opinion, the top 5 NorCal teams are:  DLS, Folsom, Pittsburg, Serra, and St. Francis.  All of these teams went to a state title game last year and all could again in 2018.  We'll get a pretty decent idea of how good they are this year due to their schedules.

DLS plays Folsom, Bishop Gorman, St. Francis, and probably Pittsburg. 

Folsom plays DLS and Chaminade

Pittsburg plays Corona Centennial, Serra, and likely DLS

Serra plays Gardena Serra, Pittsburg, and St. Francis (possibly twice like last year)

St. Francis plays DLS, Notre Dame, and Serra (again, possibly twice)

 

I'm not entirely sold on Liberty.  They may be good, but they didn't really schedule anyone of major consequence in non-league.  As such, they'll only have one real game to prove themselves (Pittsburg).  If they get to the NCS Open Division, they may get a shot to lose to DLS.

Stockton St. Mary's definitely scheduled aggressively, but I'm unsure they'll be able to meet those challenges.  Pittsburg and Mater Dei await them, as all as a potential playoff meeting with Folsom.

Charmichael Jesuit has been mentioned.  We'll find out about them in two weeks when they play Folsom.

Nice 

NorCal top 5 stepping out 

every one with a game vs a top socal team plus intersectional games bs each other 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Tier 5 - OLU, Serra (Gardena), Chandler, Jokes Christian, SJR, Trinity*, SJP, Aledo, Buford, Colerain, ST. Eds, Iggy, Upland, Blessed Trinity (Ga), Muskegon (Mi), Mentor (oh),  East (St. Louis), St. X. Phillips (IL), Bishop Dunne (Tx), Miami Northwestern

Tier 6 - Pittsburg, Serra (San Mateo), JSerra, Servite, DBP, Columbia (FL), ArchBishop Wood, Santa Margarita, Gonzaga, Loyola Academy (IL), John Curtis, Arch Bishop Rummel, Lowndes

*teams will not be considered to be in a Tier until they score a point ( if they have played a game).

Below is an explanation of the Methodolgy used to place the teams on various Tiers.  The Tier concept recognizes that W/L records are a function of quality of opponent, and as such, RELEVANCY of opponent MUST be factored in.  The Tiers recognizes that in some cases, a 10-0 team (ranked in Top 100 by some outlets) could get blown off the field by a 5-5 (unranked) team that played a tougher schedule.  This is why the Tiers was created.

 

*Not attempting to rank every team, only the ones we discuss on this site.

*Tier placements consider a teams entire body of work, however are weighted heaviest on recent games and game weights decrease in significance in reverse order.  In other words, early road OOS losses to relevant teams can be overcome as the season progresses.

*Teams placed on the same Tier can compete with other same Tier teams and possibly win 2+ of 10. 

*Basically there is a -10 point drop between tiers.  Could vary from 7 to 21 depending on the styles of teams playing.  This does not necessarily mean that there is a 30 point difference between Tier 1 and Tier 3, only that the chances of a Tier 3 team beating a Tier 1 team are exponentially less than the chances of a Tier 2 Team beating a Tier 1 team

*Texas teams generally have not played enough OOS games to gauge properly #crapshoot.  There must be a daisy chain OOS connection for a reference point.  Teams with no OOS daisy chain connection may not be placed on a Tier.  (Texas exempt)

*Tiers are based on exhaustive research, Multiple games watched, and good gut feelings.

*This is a crowd sourced rating. All input will be considered and adjustments will be made as appropriate 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 8/13/2018 at 12:19 PM, Cal 14 said:

In my opinion, the top 5 NorCal teams are:  DLS, Folsom, Pittsburg, Serra, and St. Francis.  All of these teams went to a state title game last year and all could again in 2018.  We'll get a pretty decent idea of how good they are this year due to their schedules.

DLS plays Folsom, Bishop Gorman, St. Francis, and probably Pittsburg. 

Folsom plays DLS and Chaminade

Pittsburg plays Corona Centennial, Serra, and likely DLS

Serra plays Gardena Serra, Pittsburg, and St. Francis (possibly twice like last year)

St. Francis plays DLS, Notre Dame, and Serra (again, possibly twice)

 

I'm not entirely sold on Liberty.  They may be good, but they didn't really schedule anyone of major consequence in non-league.  As such, they'll only have one real game to prove themselves (Pittsburg).  If they get to the NCS Open Division, they may get a shot to lose to DLS.

Stockton St. Mary's definitely scheduled aggressively, but I'm unsure they'll be able to meet those challenges.  Pittsburg and Mater Dei await them, as all as a potential playoff meeting with Folsom.

Charmichael Jesuit has been mentioned.  We'll find out about them in two weeks when they play Folsom.

Excellent write up. I think this will be an interesting season in NorCal.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, hardhit1 said:

St eds, Iggy , Colerain, X in tier 5 proves your inability to correctly rank teams here.

i am asking Prepgridiron to suspend your thread and sit out one season to learn from your inefficiencies😩

Sorry if I over ranked Ohio but they haven’t played any games yet.  If you have data that supports different placement I’d love to see it 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, Sammyswordsman said:

Like what?  

 

On 8/10/2018 at 6:45 PM, LiberalDonaldTrump said:

Serious question Why would img ever schedule Columbia! Like that’s not even fair.. 0% chance of winning 

 

On 8/10/2018 at 6:51 PM, LiberalDonaldTrump said:

It’s the worst year In bosco history and almost all their games the coaches blew it

 

all 1,3,7 point loses   No blowouts

 

@GardenStateBaller

 

i no no you wouldn’t lie to me

 

 

do you think Columbia beats bosco

 

 

 

 

 

On 8/10/2018 at 6:55 PM, LiberalDonaldTrump said:

Columbia your gonna sit here and tell me y’all got a chance against img

 

On 8/10/2018 at 7:24 PM, CCBlackhatter said:

They probably wanted to scout a WR or two for their B team squad....

 

On 8/10/2018 at 8:41 PM, GardenStateBaller said:

IMO no BNU school should EVER lose to an OOS public program ranked outside the Top 1000 in America. Columbia is good. Just not that good to beat power privates. 

 

  • Like 2
  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...