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Sammyswordsman

2018 Tier Placement - Week 9 Tiers *Posted 10-14-18

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20 hours ago, Sammyswordsman said:

Tier 1 - Mater Dei, IMG,  STA, SJB,  Allen, SJC

 

Tier 2 -  Lake Travis, St. Louis,  DLS,  North shore (tx),  SFA, Mentor, Colquitt County, Cen10, Miami Central, Carol City, ULAB

 

Tier 3 - Colerain,  Katy, Rome,  Milton, Folsom, Bishop Gorman, Centennieal AZ,  Archer, Grayson, Arch Bishop Hoban, Deerfield Beach Bergen Catholic, SJP, SPP, Mission Viejo. Pickerington Central, Jokes Christian, JSerra

[...]

*Basically there is a -10 point drop between tiers.  Could vary from 7 to 21 depending on the styles of teams playing.  This does not necessarily mean that there is a 30 point difference between Tier 1 and Tier 3, only that the chances of a Tier 3 team beating a Tier 1 team are exponentially less than the chances of a Tier 2 Team beating a Tier 1 team.

[...]

DLS is tier 3. 

I hate to repeat myself, but you don't listen too good.

What's more, DLS is tier 3 by your own criterion (to the extant that it makes sense as stated), assuming you've got BG in the right tier. DLS just beat BG by 6, which MoV is below your lower limit of 7. 

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1 hour ago, Belly Bob said:

DLS is tier 3. 

I hate to repeat myself, but you don't listen too good.

What's more, DLS is tier 3 by your own criterion (to the extant that it makes sense as stated), assuming you've got BG in the right tier. DLS just beat BG by 6, which MoV is below your lower limit of 7. 

The difference is that DLS has a quality win over the devil, and is also 4-0.  The Bishop is 1-3 with losses to non Tier 2 teams.

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1 hour ago, 954gator said:

@SammyswordsmanBuford too low IMO.   They are at tier 3 IMO.   4 at the very least.   

You are correct.  Buford hung close to Deerfield beach who eeked out a win vs Chaminade by about the same point difference, and Buford appears to be a -7 to -10 against Archer on Friday.  Moving Burfod toTier 4 pending the outcome of the Archer game and Deerfield vs. AHP game

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10 minutes ago, Sammyswordsman said:

You are correct.  Buford hung close to Deerfield beach who eeked out a win vs Chaminade by about the same point difference, and Buford appears to be a -7 to -10 against Archer on Friday.  Moving Burfod toTier 4 pending the outcome of the Archer game and Deerfield vs. AHP game

You're forgetting Buford's connection to Grayson.    Check out Westlake Ga on maxpreps.  Buford, at the very least should be on par with Grayson.  

 

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10 hours ago, Sammyswordsman said:

Good catch on Bingham.  I rushed to release this yesterday afternoon because I am attending a Steeler game party early today.

After releasing the Tiers, the Santa Margarita vs. Orem score came in.  So Bingham has been moved to Tier 4.  Santa Margarita is out of the Tiers.

Well, I went to a birthday party. ¬†We had funfetti cake. ¬†And ice cream, so there!ūüėú

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30 minutes ago, GardenStateBaller said:

@PrepForce Love this poll. It's the best on a weekly basis. Give me human eye tests over algorithms any day!!

http://www.prepforce.com/pf_blog/front-page/prep-force-2018-national-high-school-football-rankings-week-5/

 

Pretty good poll.  My only disagreement is that SPP and SJP are rated as high as they are.  Each has only played 2 games, and both are piggybacking off the BC/Grayson game.  We also don't know if Grayson is any good either.  Grayson beat two local 2-2 teams by a combined 13 points.

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4 hours ago, Sammyswordsman said:

The difference is that DLS has a quality win over the devil, and is also 4-0.  The Bishop is 1-3 with losses to non Tier 2 teams.

I must be confused by the criteria then.

I was under the impression that teams belonging to the same tier had roughly equal chances of winning if they played each other.

BG loses to a tier 1 team, loses by 6 to a tier 3 team, and just lost by 6 to a tier 2 team, yet they are supposed to be 7-21 points worse than a tier 2 team? 

And DLS beats a tier 3 team by 14 in week 0 and just beat a tier 3 team by 6, but they're supposed to be 7-21 points better than a tier 3 team?

That strikes me as a rather puzzling way to go about things, but I'm probably missing something important that is clear in your mind but unclear in your criteria. 

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1 minute ago, Belly Bob said:

I must be confused by the criteria then.

I was under the impression that teams belonging to the same tier had roughly equal chances of winning if they played each other.

BG loses to a tier 1 team, loses by 6 to a tier 3 and by 6 to a tier 2 team, yet they are supposed to be 7-21 points worse than a tier 2 team?  - Depends on the Tier 2 team.  DLS beat Tier 3 Folsom by 14 which puts them solid in Tier 2.  DLS beat  BG by a TD

And DLS beats a tier 3 team by 14 in week 0 and just beat a tier 3 team by 6, but they're supposed to be 7-21 points better than tier 3 teams?  If I changed the metric from 7 points to "a TD" would you be satisfied?

That strikes me as a rather puzzling way to go about things, but I'm probably missing something important that is clear in your mind but unclear in your criteria. - The most heavily weighted criteria can be found later down the list

 

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I don't know what criteria you're referring to, but it seems to me that DLS won close games against Folsom and BG.

And it seems to me that BG lost close games to Centennial and DLS.

So I'd put them all on the same tier, since on the available evidence, they're all about as good as each other. 

You don't put them on the same tier.

So I must be confused about what it is to for two teams to belong to the same tier. 

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2 hours ago, Belly Bob said:

I must be confused by the criteria then.

I was under the impression that teams belonging to the same tier had roughly equal chances of winning if they played each other.

BG loses to a tier 1 team, loses by 6 to a tier 3 team, and just lost by 6 to a tier 2 team, yet they are supposed to be 7-21 points worse than a tier 2 team? 

And DLS beats a tier 3 team by 14 in week 0 and just beat a tier 3 team by 6, but they're supposed to be 7-21 points better than a tier 3 team?

That strikes me as a rather puzzling way to go about things, but I'm probably missing something important that is clear in your mind but unclear in your criteria. 

Don‚Äôt pay attention to sammy‚Äôs Math on tiers ‚ÄĒ it‚Äôs wrong and confusing¬†

think conceptually 

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On ‚Äé9‚Äé/‚Äé15‚Äé/‚Äé2018 at 9:56 PM, Sammyswordsman said:
  • ¬†

 

Tier 3 - Colerain,  Katy, Rome,  Milton, Folsom, Bishop Gorman, Centennieal AZ,  Archer, Grayson, Arch Bishop Hoban, Deerfield Beach Bergen Catholic, SJP, SPP, Mission Viejo. Pickerington Central, Jokes Christian, JSerra,

 

Tier 4 - Converse Judson Tx, , Katy,    OLU,   Lincoln Way East (IL), Dematha, Cardinal Gibbons, American Heritage Plantation, Marietta, St. IGGY, St. Edwards,  Warren Central, Gonzaga. Aledo, Columbia FL, Walton , Chandler, Bingham, Buford

 

You have Katy in Tier 3 & 4.  Personally, I would take them out of Tier 3 (see how they do once playoffs start).  I would also switch Duncanville & Aledo.

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14 hours ago, HawgGoneIt said:

Image result for colquitt county packers logo

 

 

 

 

I knew it! I knew it all along!

 

Image result for crazy grin gif

He should like them.

That's a nasty bunch those hairy Hawgs are.

We've been efficient on offense, and terrorizing defensively. The Blackhats live in their opponents backfield.

42 sacks, 88 QB hurries, and 82 TFL thru 5 games. 

Even MD and SJB can't match those numbers despite their weaker SoS.

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3 hours ago, CCBlackhatter said:

He should like them.

That's a nasty bunch those hairy Hawgs are.

We've been efficient on offense, and terrorizing defensively. The Blackhats live in their opponents backfield.

42 sacks, 88 QB hurries, and 82 TFL thru 5 games. 

Even MD and SJB can't match those numbers despite their weaker SoS.

Neither MD nor SJB’s opponents have run 212 offensive plays so.........

whonthe hell is CQ’s stat man, Rab?

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Tier 1 - Mater Dei, IMG, SJB,  Allen, 

 

Tier 2 -  Lake Travis, St. Louis,   North shore (tx),  SFA,  Cen10, Miami Central, Carol City, SJP

 

Tier 3 -  Rome,  Centennial AZ,  SPP,   SJC, STA, DLS, Colquitt County, ULAB, Gonzaga, Good Council,  Mentor (OH)

 

 

Tier 4 - Converse Judson Tx, Katy,  OLU,   Lincoln Way East (IL), American Heritage Plantation, St. Edwards,  Warren Central, . Aledo,  Bingham, Mission Viejo, Pickerington Central, Jokes Christion, DBP,  Grayson, Archer, Colerain, Bishop Gorman, Bergen Catholic, Folsom, Arch Bishop Hoban, SJR, Deerfield Beach, Milton, JSerra

 

Tier 5 -   Blessed Trinity (Ga), Muskegon (Mi), East (SLC),  Loyola Academy (IL), Miami Northwestern,   Lee County, North Gwinett, . Marrietta, Chandler, Hoover, DeMatha, De Paul, Aledo, Buford, St. Iggy, Walton, East (UT), Liberty (NV)

Tier 6 - John Curtis,  Lowndes,  Saguaro, Trinity*, ST. X,  Columbia FLA, Cardinal Gibbons

*teams will not be considered to be in a Tier until they score a point ( if they have played a game).

Below is an explanation of the Methodolgy used to place the teams on various Tiers.  The Tier concept recognizes that W/L records are a function of quality of opponent, and as such, RELEVANCY of opponent MUST be factored in.  The Tiers recognizes that in some cases, a 10-0 team (ranked in Top 100 by some outlets) could get blown off the field by a 5-5 (unranked) team that played a tougher schedule.  This is why the Tiers was created.

 

*Not attempting to rank every team, only the ones we discuss on this site.

* The Tiers are fluid and subject to extreme fluctuations early in the year, leveling out as the year progresses.

*Tier placements consider a teams entire body of work, however are weighted heaviest on recent games and game weights decrease in significance in reverse order.  In other words, early road OOS losses to relevant teams can be overcome as the season progresses.

*Teams placed on the same Tier can compete with other same Tier teams and possibly win 2+ of 10. 

*Basically there is a -10 point drop between tiers.  Could vary from a TD to 3 scores depending on the styles of teams playing.  This does not necessarily mean that there is a 30 point difference between Tier 1 and Tier 3, only that the chances of a Tier 3 team beating a Tier 1 team are exponentially less than the chances of a Tier 2 Team beating a Tier 1 team.

*The Tiers will ultimately be made up of (16) teams per Tier that would form competitive playoff brackets.

*Texas teams generally have not played enough OOS games to gauge properly #crapshoot.  There must be a daisy chain OOS connection for a reference point.  Teams with no OOS daisy chain connection may not be placed on a Tier.  (Texas exempt)

*Tiers are based on exhaustive research, Multiple games watched, and good gut feelings.

*This is a crowd sourced rating. All input will be considered and adjustments will be made as appropriate

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1 hour ago, Sammyswordsman said:

Tier 1 - Mater Dei, IMG, SJB,  Allen, 

 

Tier 2 -  Lake Travis, St. Louis,   North shore (tx),  SFA,  Cen10, Miami Central, Carol City, SJP

 

Tier 3 -  Rome,  Centennial AZ,  SPP,   SJC, STA, DLS, Colquitt County, ULAB, Gonzaga, Good Council,  Mentor (OH)

 

 

Tier 4 - Converse Judson Tx, Katy,  OLU,   Lincoln Way East (IL), American Heritage Plantation, St. Edwards,  Warren Central, . Aledo,  Bingham, Mission Viejo, Pickerington Central, Jokes Christion, DBP,  Grayson, Archer, Colerain, Bishop Gorman, Bergen Catholic, Folsom, Arch Bishop Hoban, SJR, Deerfield Beach, Milton, JSerra

 

Tier 5 -   Blessed Trinity (Ga), Muskegon (Mi), East (SLC),  Loyola Academy (IL), Miami Northwestern,   Lee County, North Gwinett, . Marrietta, Chandler, Hoover, DeMatha, De Paul, Aledo, Buford, St. Iggy, Walton, East (UT), Liberty (NV)

Tier 6 - John Curtis,  Lowndes,  Saguaro, Trinity*, ST. X,  Columbia FLA, Cardinal Gibbons

*teams will not be considered to be in a Tier until they score a point ( if they have played a game).

Below is an explanation of the Methodolgy used to place the teams on various Tiers.  The Tier concept recognizes that W/L records are a function of quality of opponent, and as such, RELEVANCY of opponent MUST be factored in.  The Tiers recognizes that in some cases, a 10-0 team (ranked in Top 100 by some outlets) could get blown off the field by a 5-5 (unranked) team that played a tougher schedule.  This is why the Tiers was created.

 

*Not attempting to rank every team, only the ones we discuss on this site.

* The Tiers are fluid and subject to extreme fluctuations early in the year, leveling out as the year progresses.

*Tier placements consider a teams entire body of work, however are weighted heaviest on recent games and game weights decrease in significance in reverse order.  In other words, early road OOS losses to relevant teams can be overcome as the season progresses.

*Teams placed on the same Tier can compete with other same Tier teams and possibly win 2+ of 10. 

*Basically there is a -10 point drop between tiers.  Could vary from a TD to 3 scores depending on the styles of teams playing.  This does not necessarily mean that there is a 30 point difference between Tier 1 and Tier 3, only that the chances of a Tier 3 team beating a Tier 1 team are exponentially less than the chances of a Tier 2 Team beating a Tier 1 team.

*The Tiers will ultimately be made up of (16) teams per Tier that would form competitive playoff brackets.

*Texas teams generally have not played enough OOS games to gauge properly #crapshoot.  There must be a daisy chain OOS connection for a reference point.  Teams with no OOS daisy chain connection may not be placed on a Tier.  (Texas exempt)

*Tiers are based on exhaustive research, Multiple games watched, and good gut feelings.

*This is a crowd sourced rating. All input will be considered and adjustments will be made as appropriate

Comedic gold here. 

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On 9/17/2018 at 10:42 AM, CCBlackhatter said:

Even MD and SJB can't match those numbers despite their weaker SoS.

Not so weak anymore

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Is this tier shit legit? I mean, what the actual is it and why do we care?

Asking for a friend I don’t like. 

Regards,

ATrulyUndersizedInexperiencedWolfPup

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11 minutes ago, BUFORDGAWOLVES said:

Is this tier shit legit? I mean, what the actual is it and why do we care?

Asking for a friend I don’t like. 

Regards,

ATrulyUndersizedInexperiencedWolfPup

Buford’s Best win is #879 Tucker. Their best card is the 14-19 loss to Deerfield beach. They played 2 Top 100 teams.  They need a signature win to move up past Tier 5

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