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Ohio Week 5 Predictions/Discussion


Coletrain06

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Elder (3-1) @ St. Ignatius (2-2) - Elder 27 Iggy 24

Elder lost a very tough game to St. Edward 30-26 last week. Elder led by multiple scores at half, but Ed's came back in the 2nd half. The end of the game was strange and a boneheaded coaching error cost Elder a chance to go on offense with around a minute left.

Iggy handled the new COF Academy last week 35-0.

By all accounts, this Elder offense is pretty good. The Iggy Defense is also pretty good. While both teams are kinda like inverses of the other, I don't see Iggy scoring more 21, and I'm not sure they can stop Elder from scoring 21. If the game was at The Pit, I would pick Elder without thinking too much.

St. Xavier (2-2) vs. Moeller (3-1) - X 24 Moe 7

St. X lost to Cathedral IN last week 20-14 in OT after a bizarre game in which X inexplicably played musical QB's and kept their QB out of the game for most of the game until they needed their QB back in the final seconds of the game, and he scored them a TD and 2 pt conv to push it to OT. Unfortunately X missed the FG in OT.

Moeller beat Lafayette KY 39-0 last week. Not much to take from this as Lafayette is terrible. 

Moe has been getting handled on the OLine this year, which is real bizarre for Moe, and have had real trouble scoring on competent defenses. X has a great Defense and Moe will have real trouble scoring. Moe's defense could keep them in the game, but it will be interesting to see how X handles the QB situation this week. 

Pickerington Central (4-0) @ Hilliard Davidson (4-0) - Pick Central 35 HD 10

Pick Central beat a crappy Groveport Madison team 33-0 last week. They are playing well, bet have not been truly tested yet.

Hilliard Davidson has a nice start to the season. After beating Olentangy Liberty 22-21, they are now 4-0. They have a tough Defense.

Davidson always plays tough on D, and their style of keepaway offense can be very difficult to handle. However, I think Pick Central has a serious athletic advantage. 


Pickerington North (4-0) vs. Dublin Coffman (4-0) - Pick North 28 Coffman 17

Pick North has some good hype coming into the season, and they've played well so far. They had one close come from behind win against Dublin Jerome, but otherwise they've blown out everybody. 

Dublin Coffman has played well to start the year and smashed Dublin Jerome 45-14 a week after Pick North squeaked by them. 

I really haven't had a chance to see either team yet this year. This will be a good game to see where both of these teams stand in Ohio. I am favoring Pick North at home.

Hoban (4-0) @ St. Vincent-St.Mary (3-1) - Hoban 35 SVSM 10

Hoban absolutely crushed Ursuline last week. Hoban's QB Hamm had a great week. 

SVSM is a solid D3 contender....They did lose their first game to Massillon 35-7.

Hoban with Hamm at QB is a very good team. They should roll SVSM. 

Others:
 

Colerain destroyed Middletown last week, and the offense really looked great. These games really help fine tune the offense. Colerain passed for ~300 yds and 5 TD's in the first half in addition to the normal option offense. The Defense forced 2 more turnovers, bringing that total to 11 turnovers on the year.

Mentor Rolled last week, and should roll again this week.

St. Edward is off this week as their game with COF Academy was cancelled

TCC is absolutely dominating everybody. D2 is shaping up to be quite good with the 4 regions all having a top team. (Hoban, TCC, Massillon, La Salle)

Massillon is also absolutely dominating everybody.

 

 

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Whatever happened against Cathedral regarding the X QB issue last week, is apparently a dead issue.  Spoke to 4 people at X last night that for years, always had the "answer".  No one is saying anything, which makes me think, it was a Coach Specht decision.  Very difficult to argue with Specht's success...he know what he is doing.

One thing: it is very apparent that X is a totally different team offensively when Hudepohl is at QB.  

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4 hours ago, prepsbill65 said:

Whatever happened against Cathedral regarding the X QB issue last week, is apparently a dead issue.  Spoke to 4 people at X last night that for years, always had the "answer".  No one is saying anything, which makes me think, it was a Coach Specht decision.  Very difficult to argue with Specht's success...he know what he is doing.

One thing: it is very apparent that X is a totally different team offensively when Hudepohl is at QB.  

Yes.....Kreimer needs to be at WR.

X' s offense was very average without Hudepohl at QB.

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12 hours ago, Coletrain06 said:

Elder (3-1) @ St. Ignatius (2-2) - Elder 27 Iggy 24

Elder lost a very tough game to St. Edward 30-26 last week. Elder led by multiple scores at half, but Ed's came back in the 2nd half. The end of the game was strange and a boneheaded coaching error cost Elder a chance to go on offense with around a minute left.

Iggy handled the new COF Academy last week 35-0.

By all accounts, this Elder offense is pretty good. The Iggy Defense is also pretty good. While both teams are kinda like inverses of the other, I don't see Iggy scoring more 21, and I'm not sure they can stop Elder from scoring 21. If the game was at The Pit, I would pick Elder without thinking too much.

St. Xavier (2-2) vs. Moeller (3-1) - X 24 Moe 7

St. X lost to Cathedral IN last week 20-14 in OT after a bizarre game in which X inexplicably played musical QB's and kept their QB out of the game for most of the game until they needed their QB back in the final seconds of the game, and he scored them a TD and 2 pt conv to push it to OT. Unfortunately X missed the FG in OT.

Moeller beat Lafayette KY 39-0 last week. Not much to take from this as Lafayette is terrible. 

Moe has been getting handled on the OLine this year, which is real bizarre for Moe, and have had real trouble scoring on competent defenses. X has a great Defense and Moe will have real trouble scoring. Moe's defense could keep them in the game, but it will be interesting to see how X handles the QB situation this week. 

Pickerington Central (4-0) @ Hilliard Davidson (4-0) - Pick Central 35 HD 10

Pick Central beat a crappy Groveport Madison team 33-0 last week. They are playing well, bet have not been truly tested yet.

Hilliard Davidson has a nice start to the season. After beating Olentangy Liberty 22-21, they are now 4-0. They have a tough Defense.

Davidson always plays tough on D, and their style of keepaway offense can be very difficult to handle. However, I think Pick Central has a serious athletic advantage. 


Pickerington North (4-0) vs. Dublin Coffman (4-0)


Hoban (4-0) @ St. Vincent-St.Mary (3-1)

 

Others:
 

I'm with you on all of your picks.  I think they will be showing the Pickerington North vs Coffman game live on spectrum.  I'll check that out to see where they stack up against everyone else I've seen in Ohio so far.

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6 hours ago, nptb17 said:

Also the Ignatius defense is not good.  

I respect your opinion, but care to expound on that a little? While this isn't the best defense Ignatius has put on the field in recent years, they are still pretty good. Mentor moved the ball on them, but Mentor moves the ball on everyone. 

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32 minutes ago, PrepGridiron said:

How do you all have your top 5 in OH this year?

I think most on here would agree that the top 4 are pretty clear, with  some combination of Mentor, Colerain, Hoban, and Pick Central.  There would be more debate about the 5 spot, with Ed's and X probably the most likely to take that slot. 

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5 minutes ago, OdbCle said:

I think most on here would agree that the top 4 are pretty clear, with  some combination of Mentor, Colerain, Hoban, and Pick Central.  There would be more debate about the 5 spot, with Ed's and X probably the most likely to take that slot. 

 

3 minutes ago, zulu1128 said:

Mentor, Colerain, Central and Hoban would be the top 4, with X/Ed/North in the mix for #5

I like how three of those schools are publics. Very nice to see in a state usually dominated by privates. That said, I do realize that 5-10 are probably predominantly privates. 

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10 minutes ago, PrepGridiron said:

 

I like how three of those schools are publics. Very nice to see in a state usually dominated by privates. That said, I do realize that 5-10 are probably predominantly privates. 

Funny thing about the privates.  In Ohio Division 1, there are 71 teams...... I could be wrong but I believe only 5 are privates...

St. Ed's and St. Ignatius up North, and X, Elder, and Moeller down South.   There are more privates in D2 (including Hoban, LaSalle etc.

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56 minutes ago, OdbCle said:

I respect your opinion, but care to expound on that a little? While this isn't the best defense Ignatius has put on the field in recent years, they are still pretty good. Mentor moved the ball on them, but Mentor moves the ball on everyone. 

I look at how the defense plays against good teams.  I didn't watch any of the Ignatius vs Mentor gm but did see all of the second half of the Hoban vs Ignatius game.  When Ignatius absolutely had to have stop, Hoban was able to bully first down after first down.  A good defense does not allow that to happen.  It's one thing if you have a qb scrambling around converting 3rd downs with fluke plays.  It's another to have a team physically impose their will on you.  

No disrespect intended.  

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28 minutes ago, nptb17 said:

I look at how the defense plays against good teams.  I didn't watch any of the Ignatius vs Mentor gm but did see all of the second half of the Hoban vs Ignatius game.  When Ignatius absolutely had to have stop, Hoban was able to bully first down after first down.  A good defense does not allow that to happen.  It's one thing if you have a qb scrambling around converting 3rd downs with fluke plays.  It's another to have a team physically impose their will on you.  

No disrespect intended.  

No disrespect taken. And yes, Hoban certainly imposed their will in the second half of that game. With their line and those running backs, there aren't many teams who can stand in Hoban's way when they get that ground game rolling. It also doesn't help the defense when your offense is as inept as Ignatius' was that game (and continues to be for the most part). 

Going to be interesting to see how they handle the Elder passing attack. Their 3-3 stack defense can make the throwing lanes tight in the short/intermediate passing game, which is where Elder makes their living. Elder will also have to deal with that bus ride up there. Mentor had success against Ignatius going vertical up the seams. I'm sure Ramsey took notice. 

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2 hours ago, nptb17 said:

What do you mean when you say dominate?  

I mean that they usually head the list of top 10 relative to their numbers in the state. Like prepsbill said Ohio has 71 D1 teams, but only 5 privates. 3 of those privates are usually always in the top 10 (and sometimes 5) in the state. Lower divisions also usually have a private that teams have to go through to win a ship, i.e., LaSalle in D2 and Hoban in D3 (prior to moving up), Cardinal Mooney etc. This year just seems like a strong grouping of publics, especially early in the season. There have been strong publics in the past (the years the Hilliard schools were really good), but usually we don't find that out until playoffs because its the privates (from a national perspective) that get the love.

Ohio though, IMO, has the best combination of solid privates and publics relative to any state in the country. I'd probably put PA as second.

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1 minute ago, PrepGridiron said:

I mean that they usually head the list of top 10 relative to their numbers in the state. Like prepsbill said Ohio has 71 D1 teams, but only 5 privates. 3 of those privates are usually always in the top 10 (and sometimes 5) in the state. Lower divisions also usually have a private that teams have to go through to win a ship, i.e., LaSalle in D2 and Hoban in D3 (prior to moving up), Cardinal Mooney etc. This year just seems like a strong grouping of publics, especially early in the season. There have been strong publics in the past (the years the Hilliard schools were really good), but usually we don't find that out until playoffs because its the privates (from a national perspective) that get the love.

Ohio though, IMO, has the best combination of solid privates and publics relative to any state in the country. I'd probably put PA as second.

Yea, I think that a lot of people don't realize that while the privates are usually at the top and have won the majority of titles, there have always been publics right there with them in very close competition, usually only losing by a single score.....Our publics just need to get over that hump and make that one extra play or so to take down the privates in the biggest games.....All 5 titles won by publics since 2000 (Upper Arlington, Colerain, Hilliard Davidson x2, Pick Central) were all won against another public school. 

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9 hours ago, nptb17 said:

Also the Ignatius defense is not good.  

Never said anything about their defense but since you brought it up let’s review the results.

gave up 21 to Hoban, 28 to Mentor and 6 to Euclid and finally 0 to the farce COF game

so I think the trend is improving 

Iggys issue is their Offense and QB play

their D looks  to be a bit above average and trending upward😀

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6 minutes ago, Coletrain06 said:

Yea, I think that a lot of people don't realize that while the privates are usually at the top and have won the majority of titles, there have always been publics right there with them in very close competition, usually only losing by a single score.....Our publics just need to get over that hump and make that one extra play or so to take down the privates in the biggest games.....All 5 titles won by publics since 2000 (Upper Arlington, Colerain, Hilliard Davidson x2, Pick Central) were all won against another public school. 

On the national scale, part of it is just consistency. Consistency gives name recognition. Publics have a hard time because success is usually more cyclical as opposed to privates who are generally going to field good teams year in and year out. 

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Just now, PrepGridiron said:

On the national scale, part of it is just consistency. Consistency gives name recognition. Publics have a hard time because success is usually more cyclical as opposed to privates who are generally going to field good teams year in and year out. 

Doubling up on this. Mentor and Colerain are two that have been able to keep the consistency. 

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