ohio Posted October 17, 2018 Report Share Posted October 17, 2018 3 minutes ago, DarterBlue said: 1. That's the chief reason I don't buy thin stocks usually. Too easy to manipulate them. I think MPX will soar or tank based on its earnings report. Based on the way it has traded, the odds favor the former. But I would not be shocked by the latter either. We will see ; it reports a week from today. 2. If we retest the lows of last Thursday, I may close the puts depending on the action. If the market is very weak, I will keep them, but if the retest looks like the bulls will hold, I will close them. It should be interesting. Earnings season is always a roller-coaster ride. A few good or bad earnings dictate the direction of all the indexes almost on a daily basis. The November elections and the December interest rake hike could also be a damper on the market. Sooner or later, I will start shorting as well. Plan to keep a good eye on the VIX. If the Dems take control of both the House and the Senate, I plan on shorting heavily in November. Otherwise I'll play it by gut instinct. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarterBlue Posted October 17, 2018 Author Report Share Posted October 17, 2018 5 minutes ago, ohio said: The November elections and the December interest rake hike could also be a damper on the market. Sooner or later, I will start shorting as well. Plan to keep a good eye on the VIX. If the Dems take control of both the House and the Senate, I plan on shorting heavily in November. Otherwise I'll play it by gut instinct. I would be very surprised if the Dems won the Senate. The map is just too bad for them. However, they will win the House unless there is a big swing over the next few weeks. So we will likely have gridlock for the remainder of DJT's first term. Not sure what that would mean, but think it would probably be market neutral. I do see rates going higher, though, regardless of how the political landscape looks. I firmly believe Powell does not want an asset bubble on his watch and think his policy is geared as much toward heading one off as it is to dampen inflation. So, at this juncture, I think the best the bulls can hope for is a sideways market with volatility. In short, a good environment for swing traders. But as always, opinions are a dime a dozen, and the market will be the final judge. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohio Posted October 17, 2018 Report Share Posted October 17, 2018 33 minutes ago, DarterBlue said: I would be very surprised if the Dems won the Senate. The map is just too bad for them. However, they will win the House unless there is a big swing over the next few weeks. So we will likely have gridlock for the remainder of DJT's first term. Not sure what that would mean, but think it would probably be market neutral. I do see rates going higher, though, regardless of how the political landscape looks. I firmly believe Powell does not want an asset bubble on his watch and think his policy is geared as much toward heading one off as it is to dampen inflation. So, at this juncture, I think the best the bulls can hope for is a sideways market with volatility. In short, a good environment for swing traders. But as always, opinions are a dime a dozen, and the market will be the final judge. That's why I swing and trend trade currently. For me it doesn't matter if the market is going up, heading down, or flat. My goal is to profit irregardless of market direction. Also, there is one thing that I was wondering about 3x bear short UVXY. In January and February UVXY went from 43 to 150 in less than a month's time span. I wonder what it would do in a market crash like the one on 2007-2008? Oh, one more thing. What do you think of BRZU with Brazil's presidential election runoff on October 28? If the right wing candidate wins, there is a good chance that the Brazilian markets can take off and BRZU might be a smart play. But I wonder it's too lake to jump in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarterBlue Posted October 18, 2018 Author Report Share Posted October 18, 2018 1 hour ago, ohio said: That's why I swing and trend trade currently. For me it doesn't matter if the market is going up, heading down, or flat. My goal is to profit irregardless of market direction. Also, there is one thing that I was wondering about 3x bear short UVXY. In January and February UVXY went from 43 to 150 in less than a month's time span. I wonder what it would do in a market crash like the one on 2007-2008? Oh, one more thing. What do you think of BRZU with Brazil's presidential election runoff on October 28? If the right wing candidate wins, there is a good chance that the Brazilian markets can take off and BRZU might be a smart play. But I wonder it's too lake to jump in. 1. It (UVXY) would be over a thousand at a minimum for sure. Whoever, was able to hold it for the majority of the crash, would make a small fortune! 2. It is not necessarily late to buy BRZU. However, I think the Brazilian market would need more than the right wing candidate winning to take off. It would need the world's economy to remain strong to support its exports. I am not sure whether we will get this as we are late in the cycle. Still, it is potentially a good trade, but does not provide the upside of UVXY. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohio Posted October 18, 2018 Report Share Posted October 18, 2018 15 minutes ago, DarterBlue said: 1. It (UVXY) would be over a thousand at a minimum for sure. Whoever, was able to hold it for the majority of the crash, would make a small fortune! 2. It is not necessarily late to buy BRZU. However, I think the Brazilian market would need more than the right wing candidate winning to take off. It would need the world's economy to remain strong to support its exports. I am not sure whether we will get this as we are late in the cycle. Still, it is potentially a good trade, but does not provide the upside of UVXY. The thing about markets is that when they crash it only lasts a year or two, but it takes about a decade or more to recover to their previous highs. So, one can potentially make more money by timely shorting the market in one or two years, than by going long for a 10 or more. Hope we have the courage and awareness to short the markets in the next crash. BRZU has doubled since September 13, just on speculation that the Right Wing candidate may win. You're correct about its potential to still go up for political reasons, but other factors may prevent it from going up after the elections. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarterBlue Posted October 18, 2018 Author Report Share Posted October 18, 2018 1 minute ago, ohio said: The thing about markets is that when they crash it only lasts a year or two, but it takes about a decade or more to recover to their previous highs. So, one can potentially make more money by timely shorting the market in one or two years, than by going long for a 10 or more. Hope we have the courage and awareness to short the markets in the next crash. BRZU has doubled since September 13, just on speculation that the Right Wing candidate may win. You're correct about its potential to still go up for political reasons, but other factors may prevent it from going up after the elections. Fear is a more visceral emotion than greed. It is why markets go down quicker than they go up. But it is in the interest of all concerned to not have a protracted bear market as that could lead to a depression and all kinds of social unrest. So the authorities work night and day to bring steep bear markets to a close quickly. Back in the 1930s the monetary authorities did not have the tools and experience to bring the 1929 crash to a quick resolution. So, instead, the US government under Roosevelt used mostly fiscal policy following Keynesian prescriptions. That led to an eventual recovery in both the economy and the financial markets. However, it took the markets till the mid 1950s to fully recover the crash losses then. More money can be made sorting bear markets than being long bull markets in a very compressed time period. However, the trick is to discern when the bear has concluded. New bull markets usually start with violent rallies, so a lot of the gains can be given back very quickly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohio Posted October 18, 2018 Report Share Posted October 18, 2018 6 minutes ago, DarterBlue said: Fear is a more visceral emotion than greed. It is why markets go down quicker than they go up. But it is in the interest of all concerned to not have a protracted bear market as that could lead to a depression and all kinds of social unrest. So the authorities work night and day to bring steep bear markets to a close quickly. You're right about fear causing crashes, but in modern times algorithms also play a role. And may also be a factor in market reversals like in Summer of 2009. Back in the 1930s the monetary authorities did not have the tools and experience to bring the 1929 crash to a quick resolution. So, instead, the US government under Roosevelt used mostly fiscal policy following Keynesian prescriptions. That led to an eventual recovery in both the economy and the financial markets. However, it took the markets till the mid 1950s to fully recover the crash losses then. Didn't realize this, but you are 100 percent correct. That's why it's not smart to go short for too long in this century. More money can be made sorting bear markets than being long bull markets in a very compressed time period. However, the trick is to discern when the bear has concluded. New bull markets usually start with violent rallies, so a lot of the gains can be given back very quickly. It seems that knowing when to get out is more of an art than a science, and even some luck is involved. I think that after a market index falls sharply and steeply and it starts to reverse, is the best time to get out of a short position as early as possible. Because usually there is a bounce up afterwards. And if it starts to go down again, one can short it again. IF it starts to flatten it's best not to short again. This way you may leave some money on the table, but you won't give back all your money on a violent market reversal. Time for me to call it a night. I'll talk to you again on Friday. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarterBlue Posted October 18, 2018 Author Report Share Posted October 18, 2018 23 minutes ago, ohio said: It seems that knowing when to get out is more of an art than a science, and even some luck is involved. I think that after a market index falls sharply and steeply and it starts to reverse, is the best time to get out of a short position as early as possible. Because usually there is a bounce up afterwards. And if it starts to go down again, one can short it again. IF it starts to flatten it's best not to short again. This way you may leave some money on the table, but you won't give back all your money on a violent market reversal. Time for me to call it a night. I'll talk to you again on Friday. Sounds good. I am actually going out of town Friday. Going to watch a game at Columbia High School which is about 2.5 hours away from Metro Orlando, then probably going to take a trip Saturday morning up to the Panhandle or as close as I can get since I would be halfway there at Lake City. I want to get a feel for the extent of the damage and assess what I may be able to do in my own small way, to help out productively. So I should be back Saturday evening and will be posting again Sunday. While I check internet from my cell phone, I have never gotten used to posting messages on forums from it as it is awkward and the screen is so small (it's an old geezer thing, I guess). Anyway, I should be back to my chatty self on Sunday at the latest. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarterBlue Posted October 22, 2018 Author Report Share Posted October 22, 2018 Anyone long the market on Friday should have reason to be very, very concerned about the action. After Thursday's rout, the averages attempted to rally Friday. The rally lasted all of 35 minutes! Then, from 10:05 am, the averages spent the rest of the day, first declining and then meandering without making further progress, positively or negatively, into the close. That a heavily oversold market cannot sustain a rally for at least a day suggests to me that there is significant pain on the horizon. Stay tuned for turbulence Monday. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarterBlue Posted October 22, 2018 Author Report Share Posted October 22, 2018 18 hours ago, DarterBlue said: Anyone long the market on Friday should have reason to be very, very concerned about the action. After Thursday's rout, the averages attempted to rally Friday. The rally lasted all of 35 minutes! Then, from 10:05 am, the averages spent the rest of the day, first declining and then meandering without making further progress, positively or negatively, into the close. That a heavily oversold market cannot sustain a rally for at least a day suggests to me that there is significant pain on the horizon. Stay tuned for turbulence Monday. We did not get the kind of pain I expected today. Still the day was negative as again stocks opened higher, but failed to sustain any meaningful gains. For the benefit of those that chose to listen let me state the following: If you currently have money long the market and plan on accessing that money anytime in the next two to three years or less, GET OUT!! Whatever upside is left in this old bull is not worth the risk. Sure, if you are twenty years away from retirement, do not trade, and do not get overly worked up over a > 25% draw down then stay put, dollar cost average into the weakness. But if this does not apply to you GET OUT. You have been warned. You will thank me later when you see what happens. As things currently stand, only traders or true long term investors should be long stocks in the kind of market environment that I see developing. DJT will not reimburse your losses, I can guarantee that! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohio Posted October 22, 2018 Report Share Posted October 22, 2018 On 10/17/2018 at 10:54 PM, DarterBlue said: Sounds good. I am actually going out of town Friday. Going to watch a game at Columbia High School which is about 2.5 hours away from Metro Orlando, then probably going to take a trip Saturday morning up to the Panhandle or as close as I can get since I would be halfway there at Lake City. I want to get a feel for the extent of the damage and assess what I may be able to do in my own small way, to help out productively. So I should be back Saturday evening and will be posting again Sunday. While I check internet from my cell phone, I have never gotten used to posting messages on forums from it as it is awkward and the screen is so small (it's an old geezer thing, I guess). Anyway, I should be back to my chatty self on Sunday at the latest. Hope you had a good time at the game. Is the Panhandle looking better or is the damage still devastating? I check on my cell phone every once in a while as you do; but am not allowed to at work. If I get caught (my site always has CCTV cameras on security) my job is history. Yesterday, I was on this site for a little bit, but my Cousin and her daughter came by to visit, so I didn't get a chance to reply to your post. Sorry for the belated post. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohio Posted October 22, 2018 Report Share Posted October 22, 2018 19 hours ago, DarterBlue said: Anyone long the market on Friday should have reason to be very, very concerned about the action. After Thursday's rout, the averages attempted to rally Friday. The rally lasted all of 35 minutes! Then, from 10:05 am, the averages spent the rest of the day, first declining and then meandering without making further progress, positively or negatively, into the close. That a heavily oversold market cannot sustain a rally for at least a day suggests to me that there is significant pain on the horizon. Stay tuned for turbulence Monday. Good analysis. I am currently in 100% cash. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohio Posted October 22, 2018 Report Share Posted October 22, 2018 1 hour ago, DarterBlue said: We did not get the kind of pain I expected today. Still the day was negative as again stocks opened higher, but failed to sustain any meaningful gains. For the benefit of those that chose to listen let me state the following: If you currently have money long the market and plan on accessing that money anytime in the next two to three years or less, GET OUT!! Whatever upside is left in this old bull is not worth the risk. Sure, if you are twenty years away from retirement, do not trade, and do not get overly worked up over a > 25% draw down then stay put, dollar cost average into the weakness. But if this does not apply to you GET OUT. You have been warned. You will thank me later when you see what happens. As things currently stand, only traders or true long term investors should be long stocks in the kind of market environment that I see developing. DJT will not reimburse your losses, I can guarantee that! Most people have their investments in IRAs or 401 Ks, think that the market will go up forever, or are in mutual funds; so they most likely won't heed your advice. I'll start playing UVXY, TVIX, and QID again if I see the VIX starting to climb again and/or if earnings disappoint. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarterBlue Posted October 22, 2018 Author Report Share Posted October 22, 2018 47 minutes ago, ohio said: Hope you had a good time at the game. Is the Panhandle looking better or is the damage still devastating? I check on my cell phone every once in a while as you do; but am not allowed to at work. If I get caught (my site always has CCTV cameras on security) my job is history. Yesterday, I was on this site for a little bit, but my Cousin and her daughter came by to visit, so I didn't get a chance to reply to your post. Sorry for the belated post. The game was dope! Met Columbia Fan for the first time ever. He is a good young man. The final score was 21-20 Columbia, so it couldn't get much closer than that. Fletcher, Columbia's opponent, could have kicked the extra point late in the 4th to try and send the game to overtime, but instead elected to go for two and failed to convert. Columbia went a quick three and out giving them the ball back with seconds on the clock. The final play occurred with 4 seconds left on the clock when the Fletcher QB's pass did not give the receiver a chance to catch it in stride for their only chance which would have been a long touchdown. Regarding the Panhandle, I made it as far as Tallahassee then a strange sequence of events prevented me from going the extra hour's ride North West to Mexico City and Panama City. From what I have heard, though, assistance is making its way to the affected individuals. However, it will probably take several years for many of them to put their lives back together. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarterBlue Posted October 22, 2018 Author Report Share Posted October 22, 2018 54 minutes ago, ohio said: Good analysis. I am currently in 100% cash. I am long MPX through Wednesday when it reports and am long 22 Put Option Contracts on the SPY and QQQ. Those, if we have seen the bull market's peak, I intend to keep for at least six months. I believe cash or shorts are the way to go with the exception of a very few, select situations. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarterBlue Posted October 22, 2018 Author Report Share Posted October 22, 2018 48 minutes ago, ohio said: Most people have their investments in IRAs or 401 Ks, think that the market will go up forever, or are in mutual funds; so they most likely won't heed your advice. I'll start playing UVXY, TVIX, and QID again if I see the VIX starting to climb again and/or if earnings disappoint. Yes, most people are perpetual bulls till they take losses they can't afford. Then they tend to get out close to the bottom only to see the market begin to rise months after. But by then they are paralyzed from the large losses taken and don't immediately do so. So they tend to hold off till the bull market is halfway or more through the new cycle and go on to repeat their same mistakes again and again ... Many are called but few are chosen! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohio Posted October 22, 2018 Report Share Posted October 22, 2018 4 minutes ago, DarterBlue said: The game was dope! Met Columbia Fan for the first time ever. He is a good young man. The final score was 21-20 Columbia, so it couldn't get much closer than that. Fletcher, Columbia's opponent, could have kicked the extra point late in the 4th to try and send the game to overtime, but instead elected to go for two and failed to convert. Columbia went a quick three and out giving them the ball back with seconds on the clock. The final play occurred with 4 seconds left on the clock when the Fletcher QB's pass did not give the receiver a chance to catch it in stride for their only chance which would have been a long touchdown. Regarding the Panhandle, I made it as far as Tallahassee then a strange sequence of events prevented me from going the extra hour's ride North West to Mexico City and Panama City. From what I have heard, though, assistance is making its way to the affected individuals. However, it will probably take several years for many of them to put their lives back together. Columbia Fan is also a good poster. The two point conversions work sometimes and sometimes fail. Some coaches refuse to let their team go into overtime, so they go for it. I still remember Hilliard Davidson going for 2, and making it, against Mentor in the 2006 state title game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohio Posted October 22, 2018 Report Share Posted October 22, 2018 33 minutes ago, DarterBlue said: Yes, most people are perpetual bulls till they take losses they can't afford. Then they tend to get out close to the bottom only to see the market begin to rise months after. But by then they are paralyzed from the large losses taken and don't immediately do so. So they tend to hold off till the bull market is halfway or more through the new cycle and go on to repeat their same mistakes again and again ... Many are called but few are chosen! This reminds me of an old Dilbert cartoon around the year 2000 when the market was going up and down sharply before the crash. Wally sold all his shares at the bottom of one of those cycles because he was scared, however the market rebounded again to its previous highs. Wally was all pissed because of his stupid blunder and that had he done nothing he would still be rich. Dilbert walks in and tells Wally that he was foolish to sell all his stock at the bottom, and that he did not sell any of his own stock and that he was still rich. To which Wally responds, "Well not really, on that same day, I was scared for you too, so I hacked into your account, and sold your stock as well". 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarterBlue Posted October 23, 2018 Author Report Share Posted October 23, 2018 1 hour ago, ohio said: Columbia Fan is also a good poster. The two point conversions work sometimes and sometimes fail. Some coaches refuse to let their team go into overtime, so they go for it. I still remember Hilliard Davidson going for 2, and making it, against Mentor in the 2006 state title game. Yes, it is a matter of philosophy with some coaches. With the win Columbia secured the district title. Had Fletcher won, they would have to win next week also (this week) to secure the district title. Fletcher is about 90 minutes away from Columbia and it was Homecoming. So, had it gone to OT, the team would probably not have gotten home till around 1 am. That may have factored into the decision to go for two as well. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
THS2011 Posted October 23, 2018 Report Share Posted October 23, 2018 Rough month. down about 19k. Luckily it's from gains and not in the red. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarterBlue Posted October 23, 2018 Author Report Share Posted October 23, 2018 5 minutes ago, THS2011 said: Rough month. down about 19k. Luckily it's from gains and not in the red. That's one way to look at it. But as a trader, I look at things differently. Everyday I suffer a draw down is a losing day and every day I end in the black is a winning one. True until the position is closed out, the profit or loss is not "realized." But in reality, a profit is a profit and a loss a loss. Now if your strategy is truly long term you don't look at the daily, weekly or monthly profits and losses as they are inconsequential to what you are doing. But if you are anything other than that, it makes a whole lot more sense to mark to market daily and treat each day as its own separate profit and loss. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
THS2011 Posted October 23, 2018 Report Share Posted October 23, 2018 13 minutes ago, DarterBlue said: That's one way to look at it. But as a trader, I look at things differently. Everyday I suffer a draw down is a losing day and every day I end in the black is a winning one. True until the position is closed out, the profit or loss is not "realized." But in reality, a profit is a profit and a loss a loss. Now if your strategy is truly long term you don't look at the daily, weekly or monthly profits and losses as they are inconsequential to what you are doing. But if you are anything other than that, it makes a whole lot more sense to mark to market daily and treat each day as its own separate profit and loss. I'm long term for sure and with dividends I'm grand. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohio Posted October 24, 2018 Report Share Posted October 24, 2018 On 10/22/2018 at 8:27 PM, DarterBlue said: Yes, it is a matter of philosophy with some coaches. With the win Columbia secured the district title. Had Fletcher won, they would have to win next week also (this week) to secure the district title. Fletcher is about 90 minutes away from Columbia and it was Homecoming. So, had it gone to OT, the team would probably not have gotten home till around 1 am. That may have factored into the decision to go for two as well. In those situations, I may go for 2 as well, if it's that late. You were smart for shorting the markets. MPX beat both estimates, but is heading down for some reason. Currently at 21.50 , did you sell it? Also, bought 500 MSFT at 104.27. Hoping they beat earnings in an hour or so. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohio Posted October 24, 2018 Report Share Posted October 24, 2018 Bought 300 more shares of MSFT at 102.12. If they don't beat, I could be in trouble Added 300 more MSFT at 101.86 for at total of 1100 shares for average of 103.04 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohio Posted October 24, 2018 Report Share Posted October 24, 2018 MSFT beat both lines. Will see how far it goes up. TSLA and F also beat. V is mixed but up. Now I hope that my Powerball tickets that I bought win the jackpot tonight. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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