The end of the Obama Trump Great Bull Market

[ohio]

10 hours ago, DarterBlue said:

That is 100% correct.

When he first bought MPX, he sent me a PM asking a lot of questions about the trade. I gave him my perspective and what he should look for in terms of deciding whether it was a good investment/trade or not. The stock was doing fine; however, I believe he got discouraged when it staged a massive reversal after being up on its earnings report in late July. Shortly after he sold it, despite the fact I had told him the stock had not really violated any meaningful support and seemed to be steadily setting up for another breakout attempt. 

But you are right. HSFBFan is not really serious about financial markets. He is deeply engrossed in political discussions as he seems to have very strong political beliefs though I am not sure he could clearly articulate sound reasons for them. Perhaps it's just as simple as picking his team and cheering it on, which is what he tried to do with MPX. Unfortunately that is not the way financial instruments work as they neither care about nor encourage your support.  

Didn't really know that you had a history with him concerning MPX.  Too bad he did not take your advice.  Now I understand your frustration, as it seems that you were trying to mentor him, but he just didn't seem to care or listen.  Best to just let him be.

From what I have read about his penchant to gamble, I would assume that he would be interested in making money in the market, but it does not seem so.  What he does not realize is that gambling (casino, ponies, dogs, or sports betting) is a suckers bet, and that gamblers lose money while the house gets rich.  Always was, always will be.  However, astute people who are willing to learn, have made a fortune in the stock market. He just does not realize that. I can't be too hard on him since I was naive when I was his age.  But not as stubborn, though.

When I was in my early 30s (1990 and on), I kept hearing about how people were making a killing on the stock market, but for some reason I just didn't jump in till mid 1999. I heard about CSCO, MSFT, AOL, JDSU, AMZN, EBAY, DELL, CCU, EMC, MMM...; but I just did realize how much I could have made had I jumped into the market.  I was more interested in my paycheck from my job and the APY in my/our bank account and having fun.  So, I too made some big financial blunders due to my naivete and lack of fortitude when I was around his age.

The sad thing is that when he gets older, and hopefully, wiser; he will realize that he should have done things differently.  

For me, it's best if I just focus on the important things in life; like finances, relationships, health, family, love, enjoying life, and spirituality.  These are things that I have control over in my life.  As far as politics, news, and major world events, and changing other peoples minds go;  I have come realize that I have little or no control over these things.  So, basically just let them be and don't generally engage in such matters.

Best of luck in all you do and pursue.

[DarterBlue]

40 minutes ago, ohio said:

Didn't really know that you had a history with him concerning MPX.  Too bad he did not take your advice.  Now I understand your frustration, as it seems that you were trying to mentor him, but he just didn't seem to care or listen.  Best to just let him be.

From what I have read about his penchant to gamble, I would assume that he would be interested in making money in the market, but it does not seem so.  What he does not realize is that gambling (casino, ponies, dogs, or sports betting) is a suckers bet, and that gamblers lose money while the house gets rich.  Always was, always will be.  However, astute people who are willing to learn, have made a fortune in the stock market. He just does not realize that. I can't be too hard on him since I was naive when I was his age.  But not as stubborn, though.

When I was in my early 30s (1990 and on), I kept hearing about how people were making a killing on the stock market, but for some reason I just didn't jump in till mid 1999. I heard about CSCO, MSFT, AOL, JDSU, AMZN, EBAY, DELL, CCU, EMC, MMM...; but I just did realize how much I could have made had I jumped into the market.  I was more interested in my paycheck from my job and the APY in my/our bank account and having fun.  So, I too made some big financial blunders due to my naivete and lack of fortitude when I was around his age.

The sad thing is that when he gets older, and hopefully, wiser; he will realize that he should have done things differently.  

For me, it's best if I just focus on the important things in life; like finances, relationships, health, family, love, enjoying life, and spirituality.  These are things that I have control over in my life.  As far as politics, news, and major world events, and changing other peoples minds go;  I have come realize that I have little or no control over these things.  So, basically just let them be and don't generally engage in such matters.

Best of luck in all you do and pursue.

In the year and a half I have posted on this site the above is by far one of the better posts I have read. It contains sound advice, is well thought out and has wisdom. I developed an interest in the stock market while in graduate school in the early to mid 1980s. But I did not have the funds to participate until 1990. I always wondered why the majority of Americans were weary of the market as to me, exactly as you say in your second paragraph, it is a much better endeavor than playing the ponies or going to Vegas. Those I only do once every several years as I realize I am going for the entertainment and don't expect to win. On the other hand, if taken seriously, with a lot of hard work, the markets can be very profitable. 

[DarterBlue]

Stocks rose Friday. This was not unexpected as the market was extremely oversold. Coming off such conditions, the rally was not particularly impressive. However, sometimes these stealth rallies work while the strong ones fail, so I will give it a chance to work over the next two to four days.

With that said, my best bet is that this rally will fail. So, on Sunday I will be preparing a list of potential short position purchases. Friday, the averages rose from .08% on the Russell to 2.77% on the NASDAQ 100. In short, it was a large cap rally that did not have broad participation. Breadth was only about 3-2 positive in aggregate. Add to that the fact volume declined across the board, and it seems to reflect a temporary decline in selling rather than buyers anxious to take advantage of bargains. But at least the averages closed positively and nearer to the top of the day’s range than the bottom.

On the day, we again lost to the tune of $1,148 or about .27%, as MPX is back to being just above its breakout price. Thus, the next trading day or two will determine what I do with it. If it cannot find support here and rise, I will sell it if it closes below $20.50. On the other hand, if it finds good support on strong volume, I may actually buy more since it would have drawn a line in the sand for the second time. It’s as simple as that.

[ohio]

4 hours ago, DarterBlue said:

In the year and a half I have posted on this site the above is by far one of the better posts I have read. It contains sound advice, is well thought out and has wisdom. I developed an interest in the stock market while in graduate school in the early to mid 1980s. But I did not have the funds to participate until 1990. I always wondered why the majority of Americans were weary of the market as to me, exactly as you say in your second paragraph, it is a much better endeavor than playing the ponies or going to Vegas. Those I only do once every several years as I realize I am going for the entertainment and don't expect to win. On the other hand, if taken seriously, with a lot of hard work, the markets can be very profitable. 

Thank you for the kind reply.

The magic words are 'the majority of Americans.'  Both of us were born in foreign countries.  You in Jamaica and me in Croatia.  Our mindset is different than the average American's. 

Both of us were raised in countries with few opportunities.  So, when we (our families) came here; we did not take these opportunities for granted.  Our families, and us two, know how important it is to take advantage of what America offers us. We know the importance of hard work, saving through frugality, and education. We know how important it is to keep our eyes on the prize, and we know the difference between earnings and net worth.

Most Americans do not seem to understand the incredible opportunities that they have in the States.  It's kind of sad that they do not see American opportunities as, we, foreigners do.

[ohio]

4 hours ago, DarterBlue said:

Stocks rose Friday. This was not unexpected as the market was extremely oversold. Coming off such conditions, the rally was not particularly impressive. However, sometimes these stealth rallies work while the strong ones fail, so I will give it a chance to work over the next two to four days.

With that said, my best bet is that this rally will fail. So, on Sunday I will be preparing a list of potential short position purchases. Friday, the averages rose from .08% on the Russell to 2.77% on the NASDAQ 100. In short, it was a large cap rally that did not have broad participation. Breadth was only about 3-2 positive in aggregate. Add to that the fact volume declined across the board, and it seems to reflect a temporary decline in selling rather than buyers anxious to take advantage of bargains. But at least the averages closed positively and nearer to the top of the day’s range than the bottom.

On the day, we again lost to the tune of $1,148 or about .27%, as MPX is back to being just above its breakout price. Thus, the next trading day or two will determine what I do with it. If it cannot find support here and rise, I will sell it if it closes below $20.50. On the other hand, if it finds good support on strong volume, I may actually buy more since it would have drawn a line in the sand for the second time. It’s as simple as that.

It's hard to know if the small rally continues or not.  A lot will depend on earnings and other news, especially interest rate hikes and foreign news.

It's always wise to prepare for the future, especially with short positions. But be leery of earnings data, it could buoy the markets temporarily, if better than expected earnings are reported.  

MPX will report earnings on the 24th of this month, I believe.  That may also be a factor to consider.

[DarterBlue]

40 minutes ago, ohio said:

Thank you for the kind reply.

The magic words are 'the majority of Americans.'  Both of us were born in foreign countries.  You in Jamaica and me in Croatia.  Our mindset is different than the average American's. 

Both of us were raised in countries with few opportunities.  So, when we (our families) came here; we did not take these opportunities for granted.  Our families, and us two, know how important it is to take advantage of what America offers us. We know the importance of hard work, saving through frugality, and education. We know how important it is to keep our eyes on the prize, and we know the difference between earnings and net worth.

Most Americans do not seem to understand the incredible opportunities that they have in the States.  It's kind of sad that they do not see American opportunities as, we, foreigners do.

Upon reflection, it is akin to the rich kid that gets the prep school education and spends summers vacationing on the continent or elsewhere. He/she often does not appreciate it as that way of life is taken for granted. So it is probably not that surprising.

When I came here I realized, as a foreigner, that I was going to have to do things for myself, that I would always have to prove myself capable. So that's the attitude I have always had. 

[DarterBlue]

3 minutes ago, ohio said:

It's hard to know if the small rally continues or not.  A lot will depend on earnings and other news, especially interest rate hikes and foreign news.

It's always wise to prepare for the future, especially with short positions. But be leery of earnings data, it could buoy the markets temporarily, if better than expected earnings are reported.  

MPX will report earnings on the 24th of this month, I believe.  That may also be a factor to consider.

I expect earnings will still be strong. How the market reacts to them will say a lot, as will future moves in interest rates. The Fed is in a bind. The world has been AWASH in easy money since the financial crisis. In most countries savers and investors have been offered negative interest rates for government debt and barely positive rates for corporate debt. That is unsustainable. The punch bowl should have been removed slowly, but decisively beginning in 2012 or 2013. Gradual rises in rates then, before the stock market got this stretched, would have been the proper policy to pursue. Chairman Powell is probably scared silly that if he does not keep raising rates fairly aggressively, he will be blamed for the next stock market bubble and crash. He is trying to avoid this. But he also has a vocal President already criticizing him. I don't really envy him in his job. 

My plan had been to hold MPX through its earnings report on the 24th. However, unless if finds strong support over the next two days, in this market environment, I will let it go. At least with this one, I intend to stick to my plan and not create another FND. 

[DarterBlue]

BTW, as a lover of soccer (football), I admire greatly what the Croatian team accomplished in the last World Cup this summer as a small country. At the end of the first half, despite being behind, I though they had a real shot at winning as they were giving the French defense kittens, particularly on the right wing. 

You have to wonder how good a Yugoslavian National team would have been with the recent success of Croatia Serbia and Slovenia. But as we both know, sometimes size works against you as too much politics goes into the selection process. 

[ohio]

1 minute ago, DarterBlue said:

Upon reflection, it is akin to the rich kid that gets the prep school education and spends summers vacationing on the continent or elsewhere. He/she often does not appreciate it as that way of life is taken for granted. So it is probably not that surprising.

When I came here I realized, as a foreigner, that I was going to have to do things for myself, that I would always have to prove myself capable. So that's the attitude I have always had. 

Very good analogy.  Generally, that rich kid does not appreciate what he/she has until it's lost.  Most foreigners came here with nothing, so we learn to appreciate the opportunities that are bestowed upon us.

On the second part of your reply, it's true for me as well.  Proving one self is very important, and the best way to do it is through a good work and investment ethic.  I'm always surprised as to how little net worth an average American has compared to an average foreigner. You would figure it would be the other way around.

 

[DarterBlue]

3 minutes ago, ohio said:

On the second part of your reply, it's true for me as well.  Proving one self is very important, and the best way to do it is through a good work and investment ethic.  I'm always surprised as to how little net worth an average American has compared to an average foreigner. You would figure it would be the other way around.

 

It should be the other way around. But America is dominated by a culture of consumption, not investment and thrift. I like to consume, too, but not on credit unless it's a house. If I can't buy the rest with cash it means I can't afford it. I will only buy other stuff on credit if I get very favorable terms such as a zero or very low interest rate after negotiating my best price. 

[ohio]

9 minutes ago, DarterBlue said:

I expect earnings will still be strong. How the market reacts to them will say a lot, as will future moves in interest rates. The Fed is in a bind. The world has been AWASH in easy money since the financial crisis. In most countries savers and investors have been offered negative interest rates for government debt and barely positive rates for corporate debt. That is unsustainable. The punch bowl should have been removed slowly, but decisively beginning in 2012 or 2013. Gradual rises in rates then, before the stock market got this stretched, would have been the proper policy to pursue. Chairman Powell is probably scared silly that if he does not keep raising rates fairly aggressively, he will be blamed for the next stock market bubble and crash. He is trying to avoid this. But he also has a vocal President already criticizing him. I don't really envy him in his job. I don't envy his job either.  But it looks like the rate hikes are imminent, irregardless of what Trump says and thinks.  The only thing stopping them is poorer than expected future economic data.

My plan had been to hold MPX through its earnings report on the 24th. However, unless if finds strong support over the next two days, in this market environment, I will let it go. At least with this one, I intend to stick to my plan and not create another FND.  Good way to analyze it.

 

[ohio]

14 minutes ago, DarterBlue said:

BTW, as a lover of soccer (football), I admire greatly what the Croatian team accomplished in the last World Cup this summer as a small country. At the end of the first half, despite being behind, I though they had a real shot at winning as they were giving the French defense kittens, particularly on the right wing. 

You have to wonder how good a Yugoslavian National team would have been with the recent success of Croatia and Slovenia. But as we both know, sometimes size works against you as too much politics goes into the selection process. 

You, Sir, know your football; both American and International.

Croatia had its chances in the first half, but seemed too fired up and emotional in the Cup.  The outcome might have been different if they went into a cautious, error free, defensive mode after the score was tied at 1-1.  France's counter attack was too great to go into an all-out attack mode against them.  Too many easy goals were given up using the strategy that they employed. In no way was France three goals better than Croatia in the Cup.  Croatia is older than many of the other European national teams, especially the UK and France.  So, it's hard to say that they will do as well in the 2022 World Cup.  Their best chance for a championship will be in the UEFA Euro in 2020.

It would be interesting if Yugoslavia would put together a national all star team.  They could very well give the West European and South American teams a run for their money in every World Cup in the foreseeable future.

 

[ohio]

28 minutes ago, DarterBlue said:

It should be the other way around. But America is dominated by a culture of consumption, not investment and thrift. I like to consume, too, but not on credit unless it's a house. If I can't buy the rest with cash it means I can't afford it. I will only buy other stuff on credit if I get very favorable terms such as a zero or very low interest rate after negotiating my best price. 

Very true.  It's still hard for me to believe that there are surgeons, law partners, and celebrities out there that are in the red financially when they earn as much as they do.

[DarterBlue]

1 hour ago, ohio said:

Very true.  It's still hard for me to believe that there are surgeons, law partners, and celebrities out there that are in the red financially when they earn as much as they do.

It is totally insane. House, business if you have a good idea, or investments if you know what you are doing. To me only those reasons make sense to put yourself in significant debt. Sure, if I had terminal cancer and no heirs, I may be tempted to go on a wild splurge knowing I was going to sock it to my creditors. But otherwise, no cigar!

[ohio]

13 hours ago, DarterBlue said:

It is totally insane. House, business if you have a good idea, or investments if you know what you are doing. To me only those reasons make sense to put yourself in significant debt. Sure, if I had terminal cancer and no heirs, I may be tempted to go on a wild splurge knowing I was going to sock it to my creditors. But otherwise, no cigar!

Exactly.  Unless you are purchasing the above, it makes no sense to be paying such high interest rates for other goods or services.

Today I can't trade anything due to no open cash.  The only investment that I will make is buying a Mega Millions lottery ticket or two.  Lol

Have TLRY stock, but can't sell till tomorrow, or I risk getting another regT.  The broker let me get away with my first one, doubt if he is so generous the second time.  So, hopefully it won't crash and burn today.  Plus Canada's legaliztion of pot this Wednesday may keep the stock from falling.

 

[DarterBlue]

1 hour ago, ohio said:

Exactly.  Unless you are purchasing the above, it makes no sense to be paying such high interest rates for other goods or services.

Today I can't trade anything due to no open cash.  The only investment that I will make is buying a Mega Millions lottery ticket or two.  Lol

Have TLRY stock, but can't sell till tomorrow, or I risk getting another regT.  The broker let me get away with my first one, doubt if he is so generous the second time.  So, hopefully it won't crash and burn today.  Plus Canada's legaliztion of pot this Wednesday may keep the stock from falling.

 

It is having a solid day. Just needs to maintain till the close. Regarding buying stuff on credit at high interest rates, that is so spot on. Why should i pay 12-20% interest on consumption items? It totally makes no sense. A medical emergency I could understand if you are uninsured. But fun stuff, no way!

[ohio]

3 hours ago, DarterBlue said:

It is having a solid day. Just needs to maintain till the close. Regarding buying stuff on credit at high interest rates, that is so spot on. Why should i pay 12-20% interest on consumption items? It totally makes no sense. A medical emergency I could understand if you are uninsured. But fun stuff, no way!

Kind of surprised.  This is a very volatile stock that can drop or gain 50 dollars a share in a moments notice.  Might sell it tomorrow depending upon how it goes. 

As far as credit cards go, they are a burden on ones finances.  Don't know why people pay 12-20% on a credit card instead of paying cash.  And if one does pay on a credit card, why not pay the full amount for the billing cycle and avoid any interest payment.

Another thing that I find interesting is that people don't understand the time value of money, both in investing and their expenditures.  Simply investing some extra money on CDs,  bonds, or mutual funds adds up over the years and decades and will eventually surpass their wages.  On the other hand, so does spending.  For example, if one buys a 2 dollar cup of coffee before work, it may not seem like much.  But over the decades it does.  $2 * 5 days * 52 weeks * 40 years comes out to $20,800.  And that's just for a two dollar item. I'd rather make my own coffee.

Other expenses like always dining out, buying brand names, not buying generic when available, not shopping for best prices on insurances, meds, food, clothing and so on, add up to much more over the  course of ones lifetime.  Many years ago, an old timer told me that people look all over the city to get a quarter percent more annual interest on their CDs, while forgetting that they could be saving an extra 20 to 30 percent by being more frugal.  That's an extra 20 to 30% of ones disposable income in ones pocket annually.  And it's tax free, unlike investments.

 

[ohio]

18 hours ago, ohio said:

Kind of surprised.  This is a very volatile stock that can drop or gain 50 dollars a share in a moments notice.  Might sell it tomorrow depending upon how it goes. 

As far as credit cards go, they are a burden on ones finances.  Don't know why people pay 12-20% on a credit card instead of paying cash.  And if one does pay on a credit card, why not pay the full amount for the billing cycle and avoid any interest payment.

Another thing that I find interesting is that people don't understand the time value of money, both in investing and their expenditures.  Simply investing some extra money on CDs,  bonds, or mutual funds adds up over the years and decades and will eventually surpass their wages.  On the other hand, so does spending.  For example, if one buys a 2 dollar cup of coffee before work, it may not seem like much.  But over the decades it does.  $2 * 5 days * 52 weeks * 40 years comes out to $20,800.  And that's just for a two dollar item. I'd rather make my own coffee.

Other expenses like always dining out, buying brand names, not buying generic when available, not shopping for best prices on insurances, meds, food, clothing and so on, add up to much more over the  course of ones lifetime.  Many years ago, an old timer told me that people look all over the city to get a quarter percent more annual interest on their CDs, while forgetting that they could be saving an extra 20 to 30 percent by being more frugal.  That's an extra 20 to 30% of ones disposable income in ones pocket annually.  And it's tax free, unlike investments.

 

Could have sold TLRY at 177 at the open but decided to hold. It dropped to 168, so I might wait a little

[ohio]

8 minutes ago, ohio said:

Could have sold TLRY at 177 at the open but decided to hold. It dropped to 168, so I might wait a little

Sold it at average of  173.19.

[ohio]

22 minutes ago, ohio said:

Sold it at average of  173.19.

Glad I sold it. It's going into a free-fall.  Going for a walk since it's a nice cool sunny day.

[DarterBlue]

3 minutes ago, GardenStateBaller said:

DOW up 351 so far. Corporate earnings are through the roof (22+%). This glorious ride continues. 

Dude, I am most likely going to short the market before the close today. I am not doing this to try and prove you wrong for I couldn't care less what your market opinion is. I will be doing this because at the very least, I think the market will retest if not take out the current lows even if it were again to right itself. My own belief it that it will take out current lows. However, I will let the market be my guide based on its action. 

[DarterBlue]

7 hours ago, DarterBlue said:

Dude, I am most likely going to short the market before the close today. I am not doing this to try and prove you wrong for I couldn't care less what your market opinion is. I will be doing this because at the very least, I think the market will retest if not take out the current lows even if it were again to right itself. My own belief it that it will take out current lows. However, I will let the market be my guide based on its action. 

For the record, I did not go short today. However, should this rally waiver tomorrow or Thursday, I have decided to buy Put Options on the NASDAQ 100 (QQQs) and the Spiders. I am not sure of the strike yet, but they will be on the Options expiring January 2020. If the market has an equally strong day tomorrow without any sign of weakness, I will abandon this idea. 

[DarterBlue]

Today, I shorted the market. Between 2:00 and 3:00 pm, I bought the folllowing:

11 Contracts of the SPY, 260, January 17, 2020 expiration Puts at 12 (one was purchased at 11.90) for a cost of over $13,200 including commissions.

11 Contracts of the QQQ , 166, January 17, 2020 Puts at 10.20 for a cost of approximately $11,100 and change including commissions. 

With those two purchases I am now long the following:

1,821 MPX

11 QQQ put options as listed above

11 SPY put options as listed above

[ohio]

2 hours ago, DarterBlue said:

Today, I shorted the market. Between 2:00 and 3:00 pm, I bought the folllowing:

11 Contracts of the SPY, 260, January 17, 2020 expiration Puts at 12 (one was purchased at 11.90) for a cost of over $13,200 including commissions.

11 Contracts of the QQQ , 166, January 17, 2020 Puts at 10.20 for a cost of approximately $11,100 and change including commissions. 

With those two purchases I am now long the following:

1,821 MPX

11 QQQ put options as listed above

11 SPY put options as listed above

MPX looked like it wanted to take off, but some one sold off in the afternoon, unfortunately.  It's getting manipulated. Would love to see the shorts squeezed on this one.

The fed will be tightening the money supply in December and maybe three times next year.  Should be bearish for the markets, so hopefully the puts will make you a nice profit.  Good luck.

[DarterBlue]

7 minutes ago, ohio said:

MPX looked like it wanted to take off, but some one sold off in the afternoon, unfortunately.  It's getting manipulated. Would love to see the shorts squeezed on this one.

The fed will be tightening the money supply in December and maybe three times next year.  Should be bearish for the markets, so hopefully the puts will make you a nice profit.  Good luck.

1. That's the chief reason I don't buy thin stocks usually. Too easy to manipulate them. I think MPX will soar or tank based on its earnings report. Based on the way it has traded, the odds favor the former. But I would not be shocked by the latter either. We will see ; it reports a week from today.

2. If we retest the lows of last Thursday, I may close the puts depending on the action. If the market is very weak, I will keep them, but if the retest looks like the bulls will hold, I will close them. It should be interesting.