NorCal Report, Week of 10/22/18

[Cal 14]

For a more detailed explanation of these sections and how their playoffs work, please see my original NorCal report: 

 

Sac-Joaquin Section

In the time of year in which there are a number of league mismatches, three games in the SJS caused me to reevaluate some teams' positions.  Oak Ridge was upset by Granite Bay, Del Oro struggles against a team (Rocklin) that they really shouldn't have, and Sheldon wins their big game against Jesuit.  EDIT:  It appears that the teams I've listed for D-IV are likely going to be in D-III.

1.  Folsom (D-I):  Expected blowout win over Grant, but it does strongly suggest that this week's game against Del Oro probably won't have much drama.

2.  Monterey Trail (D-I):- Move up to #2 in the SJS not due to easy win over Laguna Creek, but rather Del Oro's surprising two week stretch.

3.  Capital Christian (D-III):  Did Grant just drastically improve since the Cougars pounced on the Pacers at the end of August, or is the 42-14 win still meaningful?

4.  Inderkum (D-II):  Tigers now my front-runner for the D-II title, playing more consistent ball.

5.  Del Oro (D-II):  Close win over Grant two weeks ago raised an eyebrow, but squeaking by Rocklin is very concerning.

6.  Central Cathoic (D-II):  The Raiders continue to roll, expected to continue this week against Oakdale.

7.  Placer (D-III):  Hillmen score win over Ponderosa.  OK game against Lincoln to finish the regular season.

8.  Sheldon (D-I):  Nice win over Jesuit allows them to join the SJS rankings.  Only loss was to Monterey Trail.

9.  Oak Ridge (D-I):  Loss to Granite Bay was very surprising, but other results keep them holding on by a thread.

 

North Coast Section

By far, the most prominent game of the week featured Liberty taking out Pittsburg in a close game.  Other than that, not much happened, except for maybe a closer-than-expected win by Antioch over Deer Valley.

1.  De La Salle (D-Open):  Easy win over San Ramon Valley.  Spartans take on 7-2 California to end the season.

2.  Brentwood Liberty (D-Open):  Lions' big win over Pittsburg pretty much locks in their #2 seed in the NCS Open Division.

3.  Clayton Valley Charter (D-Open):  Ugly Eagles have easy time against Alhambra.  Should be a lock for the #3 seed in the NCS Open Division.

4.  Pittsburg (D-Open):  Close game against Liberty more than justifies retaining their position from last week.  I've said in other threads that Boyd may actually have been Pittsburg's best QB all along, but just preferred to play WR.  This team may be better now than at the beginning of the year... possibly better than Clayton Valley Charter, but there's no way they'll be seeded higher than them if they are selected for the NCS Open Division.

5.  Cardinal Newman (D-III):  Barring an Antioch upset over Pittsburg in that rivalry game, the Cardinals will be the top seed in the NCS D-III playoffs.  That said, they are a viable option if the NCS feels a little sketchy about three losses for the Pirates.

6.  Monte Vista (D-I):  Mustangs are also a slight possibility as a selection for the NCS Open Division, but they probably won't be selected due to their extremely lopsided loss to DLS earlier in the year.  Wins over California and Granada in combination of Antioch's struggle with Deer Valley moves them up to #6 this week.

7.  Rancho Cotate (D-II):  Going out on a slight limb with the Cougars at #7.  Only loss is to Cardinal Newman, but has nice wins over Pleasant Valley and Campolindo.

 

Central Coast Section

No major surprises,  but one minor one saw Wilcox struggle against a questionable Milpitas team.  Score was tied at the half before the Chargers pulled away.  Because the CCS only has three rounds of playoffs, they started the regular season a week later than the other NorCal sections.  This means there are two weeks left in the regular season for this section, while the others close it out this week.

1.  St. Francis (D-Open II):  Shut-out win over Bellarmine, but offense continues to be somewhat mediocre.

2.  Valley Christian (D-Open II):  Warriors get shut-out win over Mitty.  Big win over Serra continues to look good as the Padres snap back with big win.

3.  Serra (D-Open II):  Padres drop 50 on St. Ignatius.  Can't yet tell if huge loss to VC was nothing more than a monster fluke.

4.  Wilcox (D-Open I):  New projection has the Chargers moving up to the CCS Open I Division, but that could remain fluid during the last two weeks of the regular season.  Struggle against Milpitas drops them one spot this week.  Starting to think that the entire De Anza Division may be slightly overrated.  Wilcox also struggled against Los Gatos.

5.  Aptos (D-Open III):  Next four teams are very close, but going with Mariners as they have a chance to prove themselves in the next two weeks against Palma and Salinas.

6.  Menlo-Atherton (D-Open I):  Bears appear to have reversed their course from their early loss to Palma.  If Aptos does not win by double-digits, look for M-A to move up at least one more spot.

 

Central Section

No surprises at all.  The game that barely even really caught my attention was a bigger-than-expected win by Bakersfield over Bakersfield Centennial. 

1.  Central (D-I):  Grizzlies dropped 75 on a once-proud Clovis West team.

2.  Buchanan (D-I):  Had easy win over Clovis East.

3.  Bakersfield Liberty (D-I):  Fairly easy win over Garces.

4.  Bakersfield (D-I):  Bakersfield Centennial is not a terrible team, but the Drillers stomped them 51-10.

5.  Tulare Union (D-II):  Easy win sets up showdown with rival Tulare Western in a battle of 9-0 teams.

6.  San Joaquin Memorial (D-II):  Easy win for the Panthers this week, may or may not get a challenge from Sanger to close out the regular season.

7.  Tulare Western (D-II):  Mustangs do their part in setting up their big game with Tulare with another big win.  Tulare Western is moved into the rankings over Clovis partially due to a somewhat ho-hum win that the Cougars had against Clovis North.

 

 

Overall NorCal Top 10

1.  De La Salle

2.  Folsom

3.  Liberty (Brentwood)

4.  Central

5.  Clayton Valley Charter

6.  Pittsburg

7.  Buchanan

8.  St. Francis

9.  Monterey Trail

10.  Liberty (Bakersfield)

[AztecPadre]

With Carmel opting up, they will be the biggest threat to aptos. Aptos better get some transfers from SJB and MD for their defense to withhold the air attack facing them. Not to forget Marty Mornhenwig's grandson Dakota handling the ground attack. 

[BraceFace69]

If Pitt beats Antioch by 3-4 TDS they get the 3 seed. 

[Cal 14]

7 hours ago, BraceFace69 said:

If Pitt beats Antioch by 3-4 TDS they get the 3 seed. 

Based on what?

Common opponent does not override head-to-head.  Further, why would the NCS want a rematch in the semis when they would have two new matchups?

Cal-Hi’s assessment is the same as mine, incidentally.

[Cal 14]

10 hours ago, AztecPadre said:

With Carmel opting up, they will be the biggest threat to aptos. Aptos better get some transfers from SJB and MD for their defense to withhold the air attack facing them. Not to forget Marty Mornhenwig's grandson Dakota handling the ground attack. 

Where did you hear Carmel was opting up?  Just listened to the Herald’s podcast and they did not report this.

[AztecPadre]

8 minutes ago, Cal 14 said:

Where did you hear Carmel was opting up?  Just listened to the Herald’s podcast and they did not report this.

It's my gut feeling.  

[Cal 14]

1 hour ago, AztecPadre said:

It's my gut feeling.  

Are you prepared to be punched in the gut?  😜

[BraceFace69]

What do you think score would be in those matchups?

 

id have

Liberty 35

CV 28 

 

DLS 30

Pitt 17

or something like that

[Cal 14]

1 hour ago, BraceFace69 said:

What do you think score would be in those matchups?

 

id have

Liberty 35

CV 28 

 

DLS 30

Pitt 17

or something like that

Those are probably reasonably close, although unless the Pitt passing game has drastically improved, I’m not sure they’re scoring 17.

[AztecPadre]

1 hour ago, Cal 14 said:

Those are probably reasonably close, although unless the Pitt passing game has drastically improved, I’m not sure they’re scoring 17.

DLS will score in the 40's against Pitt.  They are hitting on all cylinders.  As for scoring 17, I would say its possible in garbage time. 

[Ararar]

Cal Hi NorCal bowl projections 

 

NORCAL BOWL BOARD NO. 1

Open Division
De La Salle (Concord) 9-0
The Spartans have been the NorCal Open Division team for the last nine consecutive seasons and have won seven CIF state titles in the 12 years of the CIF state bowl games. They have wins over Folsom and Bishop Gorman of Las Vegas to give them a better vibe heading into the CIF North Coast Section Open Division playoffs than in the last two seasons.

Division 1-AA
Folsom 8-1 vs. Central (Fresno) 9-0
Sac-Joaquin Sec D1 & CIF Central Sec D1. The Bulldogs have been great as expected after their loss to De La Salle in the season opener and they won the D1-AA state title last season. Central & projected NCS Open runner-up Liberty of Brentwood are right next to each other in our state rankings and this could flip if the Lions were to do well in possible NCS title game vs. De La Salle. Central traveled to Folsom for last year’s matchup in this division so the very real possibility if these two play again is that this year the game will be in Fresno.

Division 1-A
Liberty (Brentwood) 9-0 vs. St. Francis (Mountain View) 7-1
NCS Open runner-up & CIF Central Coast Section Open 2. The Lions just beat Pittsburg in a much-hyped game and should be the No. 2 seed for the NCS Open playoffs. St. Francis won the D2-A state title last year but this season may be playing in a higher state division with one of the state’s top defensive units.

Division 2-AA
Del Oro (Loomis) 9-0 vs. Wilcox (Santa Clara) 8-0
SJS D2 & CCS Open 1. This matchup assumes Del Oro is going to lose to Folsom on Friday and not win the Sierra Foothill League title, thus sending the Golden Eagles to the SJS D2 bracket. State No. 28 Central Catholic of Modesto (8-1) and unbeaten Inderkum of Sacramento (9-0) also should help make the SJS D2 bracket quite loaded. Wilcox needs two more wins for a 10-0 regular season and then should be top seed for the CCS Open 1 playoffs. That isn’t the same as CCS Open 2 or CCS Open 3. Watch out for Menlo-Atherton (6-2) in that bracket as well. 

Division 2-A
Valley Christian (San Jose) 6-2 vs. Cardinal Newman (Santa Rosa) 8-1
CCS Open 2 runner-up & NCS D3. Valley Christian’s recent win over San Mateo Serra pushed it upward in our State Top 50 and the Warriors only lost to St. Francis by four points. As in previous years, both of the projected top two finishers in the WCAL will be CCS D2 Open. The Cardinals, who have lost their only game to Liberty of Brentwood, represent an NCS playoff division that also includes unbeaten Las Lomas of Walnut Creek and unbeaten Eureka.

[NorCalRuss]

I’ll be at the Corral in Oakdale today to watch tonight’s game against CC. Have to get there at 4 to get in game as 9000 plus expected to be there. That’s a lot of people for a lil country town ( population about 20k)  hsfb game. 

[AztecPadre]

16 hours ago, Ararar said:

Cal Hi NorCal bowl projections 

 

NORCAL BOWL BOARD NO. 1

Open Division
De La Salle (Concord) 9-0
The Spartans have been the NorCal Open Division team for the last nine consecutive seasons and have won seven CIF state titles in the 12 years of the CIF state bowl games. They have wins over Folsom and Bishop Gorman of Las Vegas to give them a better vibe heading into the CIF North Coast Section Open Division playoffs than in the last two seasons.

Division 1-AA
Folsom 8-1 vs. Central (Fresno) 9-0
Sac-Joaquin Sec D1 & CIF Central Sec D1. The Bulldogs have been great as expected after their loss to De La Salle in the season opener and they won the D1-AA state title last season. Central & projected NCS Open runner-up Liberty of Brentwood are right next to each other in our state rankings and this could flip if the Lions were to do well in possible NCS title game vs. De La Salle. Central traveled to Folsom for last year’s matchup in this division so the very real possibility if these two play again is that this year the game will be in Fresno.

Division 1-A
Liberty (Brentwood) 9-0 vs. St. Francis (Mountain View) 7-1
NCS Open runner-up & CIF Central Coast Section Open 2. The Lions just beat Pittsburg in a much-hyped game and should be the No. 2 seed for the NCS Open playoffs. St. Francis won the D2-A state title last year but this season may be playing in a higher state division with one of the state’s top defensive units.

Division 2-AA
Del Oro (Loomis) 9-0 vs. Wilcox (Santa Clara) 8-0
SJS D2 & CCS Open 1. This matchup assumes Del Oro is going to lose to Folsom on Friday and not win the Sierra Foothill League title, thus sending the Golden Eagles to the SJS D2 bracket. State No. 28 Central Catholic of Modesto (8-1) and unbeaten Inderkum of Sacramento (9-0) also should help make the SJS D2 bracket quite loaded. Wilcox needs two more wins for a 10-0 regular season and then should be top seed for the CCS Open 1 playoffs. That isn’t the same as CCS Open 2 or CCS Open 3. Watch out for Menlo-Atherton (6-2) in that bracket as well. 

Division 2-A
Valley Christian (San Jose) 6-2 vs. Cardinal Newman (Santa Rosa) 8-1
CCS Open 2 runner-up & NCS D3. Valley Christian’s recent win over San Mateo Serra pushed it upward in our State Top 50 and the Warriors only lost to St. Francis by four points. As in previous years, both of the projected top two finishers in the WCAL will be CCS D2 Open. The Cardinals, who have lost their only game to Liberty of Brentwood, represent an NCS playoff division that also includes unbeaten Las Lomas of Walnut Creek and unbeaten Eureka.

You forgot to post the most important portion of the Bowl game predictions.  Mark Tennis is hands down the expert in all things Cali hsfb and his predictions always pan out when it comes to the bowl matchups and winners. 

Division 4-A
Carmel 8-0 vs. Pleasant Valley (Chico) 6-2
CCS Open 3 & Northern Sec D2. The Padres won early in the season over Salinas and haven’t looked back. Aptos (8-0) is another possible CCS Open D3 team but still has Palma (Salinas) and Salinas to play to end its regular season. The other issue with Carmel is that the school has to declare its intentions to be in the CCS Open mix and that may not happen. It may want to try to win one of the CCS divisional titles that doesn’t send its teams to the CIF bowl games and shoot for a perfect record. The Northern Section doesn’t have a team like Shasta of Redding last year (which was in D3-AA) and PV still has to play its rivals from Chico. Still, we’re listing the Vikings since their losses are to Valley Christian (SJ) and 8-1 Rancho Cotate (NCS D2).

[Cal 14]

17 hours ago, Ararar said:

Cal Hi NorCal bowl projections 

 

NORCAL BOWL BOARD NO. 1

Open Division
De La Salle (Concord) 9-0
The Spartans have been the NorCal Open Division team for the last nine consecutive seasons and have won seven CIF state titles in the 12 years of the CIF state bowl games. They have wins over Folsom and Bishop Gorman of Las Vegas to give them a better vibe heading into the CIF North Coast Section Open Division playoffs than in the last two seasons.

Division 1-AA
Folsom 8-1 vs. Central (Fresno) 9-0
Sac-Joaquin Sec D1 & CIF Central Sec D1. The Bulldogs have been great as expected after their loss to De La Salle in the season opener and they won the D1-AA state title last season. Central & projected NCS Open runner-up Liberty of Brentwood are right next to each other in our state rankings and this could flip if the Lions were to do well in possible NCS title game vs. De La Salle. Central traveled to Folsom for last year’s matchup in this division so the very real possibility if these two play again is that this year the game will be in Fresno.

Division 1-A
Liberty (Brentwood) 9-0 vs. St. Francis (Mountain View) 7-1
NCS Open runner-up & CIF Central Coast Section Open 2. The Lions just beat Pittsburg in a much-hyped game and should be the No. 2 seed for the NCS Open playoffs. St. Francis won the D2-A state title last year but this season may be playing in a higher state division with one of the state’s top defensive units.

Division 2-AA
Del Oro (Loomis) 9-0 vs. Wilcox (Santa Clara) 8-0
SJS D2 & CCS Open 1. This matchup assumes Del Oro is going to lose to Folsom on Friday and not win the Sierra Foothill League title, thus sending the Golden Eagles to the SJS D2 bracket. State No. 28 Central Catholic of Modesto (8-1) and unbeaten Inderkum of Sacramento (9-0) also should help make the SJS D2 bracket quite loaded. Wilcox needs two more wins for a 10-0 regular season and then should be top seed for the CCS Open 1 playoffs. That isn’t the same as CCS Open 2 or CCS Open 3. Watch out for Menlo-Atherton (6-2) in that bracket as well. 

Division 2-A
Valley Christian (San Jose) 6-2 vs. Cardinal Newman (Santa Rosa) 8-1
CCS Open 2 runner-up & NCS D3. Valley Christian’s recent win over San Mateo Serra pushed it upward in our State Top 50 and the Warriors only lost to St. Francis by four points. As in previous years, both of the projected top two finishers in the WCAL will be CCS D2 Open. The Cardinals, who have lost their only game to Liberty of Brentwood, represent an NCS playoff division that also includes unbeaten Las Lomas of Walnut Creek and unbeaten Eureka.

Regardless of whether or not I think Liberty is better than Central, Central is definitely the most logical choice to oppose Folsom in D-IAA.

I think Liberty would be a bit much for St. Francis to bite off, but at least they wouldn't face the CS D-II team.

Could be interesting game... but, I'm not so sure either Wilcox or Del Oro will win their respective sectional titles.  DO will get major challenges from Inderkum and Central Catholic.  Wilcox could need to deal with Menlo-Atherton, Palo Alto, and Salinas.  If DO loses, I still see the SJS D-II winner here.

VC vs CN could be another very interesting game.  However, if either DO or Wilcox fail above, we could see Cardinal Newman move up to D-2AA.  I don't really see VC making that same move, though.  

[Cal 14]

39 minutes ago, AztecPadre said:

You forgot to post the most important portion of the Bowl game predictions.  Mark Tennis is hands down the expert in all things Cali hsfb and his predictions always pan out when it comes to the bowl matchups and winners. 

Division 4-A
Carmel 8-0 vs. Pleasant Valley (Chico) 6-2
CCS Open 3 & Northern Sec D2. The Padres won early in the season over Salinas and haven’t looked back. Aptos (8-0) is another possible CCS Open D3 team but still has Palma (Salinas) and Salinas to play to end its regular season. The other issue with Carmel is that the school has to declare its intentions to be in the CCS Open mix and that may not happen. It may want to try to win one of the CCS divisional titles that doesn’t send its teams to the CIF bowl games and shoot for a perfect record. The Northern Section doesn’t have a team like Shasta of Redding last year (which was in D3-AA) and PV still has to play its rivals from Chico. Still, we’re listing the Vikings since their losses are to Valley Christian (SJ) and 8-1 Rancho Cotate (NCS D2).

Carmel should petition up... but I still don't think they will.

If they don't, there's a new phrase I'll be using for the Padre program.

[CaliNorth]

1 hour ago, NorCalRuss said:

I’ll be at the Corral in Oakdale today to watch tonight’s game against CC. Have to get there at 4 to get in game as 9000 plus expected to be there. That’s a lot of people for a lil country town ( population about 20k)  hsfb game. 

You guys get 9000 for a game ?  That is pretty impressive given the pop size of your town. Back a few years ago, Escalon was know as the small town that had everyone turning out for the games. Is that still true today that you know of ?

[AztecPadre]

2 hours ago, Cal 14 said:

Carmel should petition up... but I still don't think they will.

If they don't, there's a new phrase I'll be using for the Padre program.

They will. I'm very close with all the coaches. I played with most and the HC was the qb when my brother star'd there. 

[NorCalRuss]

3 hours ago, CaliNorth said:

You guys get 9000 for a game ?  That is pretty impressive given the pop size of your town. Back a few years ago, Escalon was know as the small town that had everyone turning out for the games. Is that still true today that you know of ?

They expect that tonight for the big rivalry game with CC. 

Escalon head coach retired this year after being there forever.  A former QB took over I believe. He was planning on keeping Wing T and adding some spread in. They’ve struggled in recent years compared to the past. I think they won a state championship in 2008 or 07ish. 

[BraceFace69]

After today’s showing, it’s gonna be interesting to see if Pitt can somehow get the 3. Very very doubtful but possible. We shall see

[AztecPadre]

@Cal 14 did you see the score from the CHS AHS game today? Playoffs will be very interesting my friend.

[Cal 14]

23 hours ago, AztecPadre said:

@Cal 14 did you see the score from the CHS AHS game today? Playoffs will be very interesting my friend.

Yes, but it only verified everything I’ve been saying.  I predicted on the NorCal page that they’d “struggle” to a 13-pt win.  They won by 14.

Aptos, Palma, Sacred Heart Prep, and Terra Nova are all fat better teams than Alisal.

[AztecPadre]

2 hours ago, Cal 14 said:

Yes, but it only verified everything I’ve been saying.  I predicted on the NorCal page that they’d “struggle” to a 13-pt win.  They won by 14.

Aptos, Palma, Sacred Heart Prep, and Terra Nova are all fat better teams than Alisal.

Palma lost to Salinas. Terra nova? No way. Shp? Nope. Aptos? Pickem. Going on a scouting trip to watch them play this week. Coach asked me to give my thoughts. At the Pitt. You should come up and meet me and see together that aptos is not unbeatable.

[Cal 14]

4 minutes ago, AztecPadre said:

Palma lost to Salinas. Terra nova? No way. Shp? Nope. Aptos? Pickem. Going on a scouting trip to watch them play this week. Coach asked me to give my thoughts. At the Pitt. You should come up and meet me and see together that aptos is not unbeatable.

You're welcome to believe whatever you want, but if Carmel opts up, it's unlikely they escape the 2nd round.

[AztecPadre]

8 hours ago, Cal 14 said:

You're welcome to believe whatever you want, but if Carmel opts up, it's unlikely they escape the 2nd round.

All bs aside, any chance you're in the area this weekend? Would be cool if you can make it. Aptos is no doubt good. I'm excited to watch a good game at the pitt on Friday, then Sat is the shoe game.

[Cal 14]

9 hours ago, AztecPadre said:

All bs aside, any chance you're in the area this weekend? Would be cool if you can make it. Aptos is no doubt good. I'm excited to watch a good game at the pitt on Friday, then Sat is the shoe game.

I'm afraid not.  I was in town for the Salinas-Hollister debacle and am working in Sunnyvale this week, but I have to go home on Friday.

I'm not very optimistic about the Cowboy's chances against the Mariners after seeing what the 'Balers did.  Power running the whole game.  Aptos will do the same, only better.  Salinas coaches make a lot of dumb decisions (going for it on 4th and 22 from the 44 yard line... sheeshus) and are late to make adjustments.  Cowboys could possibly do well with the pass.   Game could be an interesting contrast in styles.

Carmel will destroy PG.  What the hell happened to the Breakers?