NorCal Report, Week of 10/29/18

[Cal 14]

This is the third installment of the NorCal Report.  For the sections in which the playoffs will be starting this week, the seeds are listed beside each team (# seed, division).

Sac-Joaquin Section

Regular season over.  All ranked teams from last week won, except for Del Oro.  That was expected, though, since they were facing Folsom.  The only surprise was how close Placer's win was.  Top four seeds in the playoffs get byes this week.

1.  Folsom (#1, D-I):  40-0 dismantling of Del Oro was actually one of the closest games of the year for the Bulldogs. 

2.  Monterey Trail (#2, D-I):  The Mustangs completed their demolition of the Metropolitan League, but we may still not find out how good they are until they face Oak Ridge in the semis.

3.  Capital Christian (#1, D-III):  The Cougars complete their undefeated regular season, may get interesting game in the semis against Antelope.

4.  Inderkum (#3, D-II):  The Tigers finish the season with an easy win, look to potential match-up in semis against Central Catholic.

5.  Del Oro (#1, D-II):  Given the recent results for the Golden Eagles, I half-expected their game against Folsom to be decided by more than 40 points.  Considering Del Oro already has a blow-out win against #4 seed Granite Bay, their path to the finals appears relatively smooth.

6.  Central Catholic (#2, D-II):  The Raiders benefit from a strong non-league schedule to secure the #2 seed in the D-II playoffs.  Great potential match-up with Inderkum looms in the semis.

7.  Sheldon (#5, D-I):  Because of the use of calpreps.com as seeding determination, the Huskies only received the #5 seed.  Interesting game against #4 seed St. Mary's is a possibility in the semifinals.

8.  Oak Ridge (#3, D-I):  The Trojans could get an interesting potential game with #4 seed, Monterey Trail, in the semifinals of the SJS D-I playoffs.

9.  Placer (#2, D-III):  Strangely close game against Lincoln drops the Hillmen a couple of spots (Oak Ridge beat the Zebras by 36).  Potential match-up with undefeated Merced in the semis looks very enticing.

 

North Coast Section

Regular season over.  The only surprise of the week was Monte Vista falling to San Ramon Valley.  Only mild drama as Pittsburg had to beat rival Antioch to insure a bid into to the Open Division.  Because the Open Division only has four teams, there will be a bye week, while all other divisions start this weekend.

1.  De La Salle (#1, D-Open):  The Spartans capped the regular season by blasting California 49-0.  Now, it's a two-week wait for Pittsburg in the first round of the Open Division.

2.  Liberty (#2, D-Open):  The Lions clobbered cross-town rival Heritage, as expected.  Good challenge in Clayton Valley Charter in the first round of the Open Division awaits in two weeks.

3.  Clayton Valley Charter (#3, D-Open):  The Ugly Eagles continued their domination of Diablo-Foothill opponents.  Next is a date with Liberty.  Winner gets De La Salle in the finals, but also a bid into the NorCal regionals.

4.  Pittsburg (#4, D-Open):  The Pirates whipped rival Antioch to secure an invitation to the NCS Open Division.  A lot of people see their game against De La Salle as a likely blowout, but I believe it's going to be relatively close as Pitt's D is quite good.

5.  Cardinal Newman (#1, D-III):  The Cardinals complete a 9-1 regular season and get the top seed in D-III.  Road to at least the semifinals looks very manageable, where they could meet undefeated Eureka.

6.  Rancho Cotate (#1, D-II):  Cougars register their second consecutive shutout en route to garnering the top seed in D-II.  Potential semifinal game against Granada looks very interesting.

7.  Eureka (#2, D-III):  The undefeated Loggers make a surprise visit to these rankings not because of their record or their playoff seeding, but rather because no one else seemed to want it.  A bye this week, but a chance to play undefeated Las Lomas in the semis is on the horizon.

 

Central Coast Section

Last week of the regular season.  Last week saw a moderate upset when Palma edged Aptos to force a rare 4-way tie in the Pacific Coast Athletic League-Gabilan Division.  Huge game this week in the West Catholic Athletic League could have major implications in league, playoff seedings, and rankings.

1.  St. Francis (D-Open II):  The Lancer defense continues to be stellar, while the offense has been able to do just enough to win games.  Will that be enough against a high-powered team like Serra?

2.  Valley Christian (D-Open II):  The Warriors record their third shutout of the season and hope for Serra to upset St. Francis to force a tri-championship in the WCAL.

3.  Serra (D-Open II):  Probably the CCS game of the year will be this weekend when the Padres host St. Francis on Saturday.  A win would justify considering the loss to VC as a fluke.

4.  Wilcox (D-Open II):  The Chargers had a late-season bye last week and will have a virtual one this week en route to the top seed in either the CCS D-Open I or II playoffs (current projection is D-I, but that could change).

5.  Menlo-Atherton (D-Open I):  The Bears have clearly established themselves as the threat they were anticipated to be at the beginning of the year.  M-A also won the CCS D-Open I title in 2016.

6.  Palma (D-0pen III):  The Chieftains recorded their second upset of the season (the other was early in the year against Menlo-Atherton).  This week, they face off against rival Hollister for a chance at a league co-championship (Aptos will play Salinas for the other part of the co-championship).

 

Central Section

Regular season over.  Two big games end in predicted fashion and therefore don't really impact rankings.  Playoff seedings also go as expected.

1.  Central (#1, D-I):  Although the win over Clovis East was closer than expected, the Grizzlies remain solid favorites to repeat as CS D-I champs.  Central gets the only bye in the D-I bracket.

2.  Buchanan (#2, D-I):  The Bears have a relatively easy time against Clovis North.  Next up is 2-8 Clovis West, who Buchanan beat 35-7 a few weeks ago (remember what I said about the CS playoffs?).

3.  Liberty (#3, D-I):  The Patriots justified their ranking with a tough-fought 7-0 win over Bakersfield.  Next true challenge may not be until the semifinals against Buchanan.

4.  Bakersfield (#4, D-I):  The Drillers fell to Liberty, but still got the 4-seed in the CS D-I playoffs.  It's possible that St. Josephs could provide an interesting game in the second round, but I wouldn't count on it.

5.  Tulare Union (#1, D-II):  The Redskins scored a solid win over rival Tulare Western, 35-14 and secured the top seed in the CS D-II playoffs.  It does not appear that they'll be challenged much until a likely rematch against the second-seeded Mustangs in the finals.  T-U gets a bye this week.

6.  San Joaquin Memorial (#1, D-III):  The undefeated Panthers are solid favorites to take home the CS D-III title.  Unsure that even second-seeded Bakersfield Christian will put up a huge fight.

7.  Tulare Western (#2, D-II):  Although the Mustangs took it on the chin last week, they don't appear to have a major roadblock towards a rematch against rival Tulare Union in the CS D-II finals.

 

Overall NorCal Top 10

1.  De La Salle

2.  Folsom

3.  Liberty (Brentwood)

4.  Central

5.  Clayton Valley Charter

6.  Pittsburg

7.  Buchanan

8.  St. Francis

9.  Monterey Trail

10.  Liberty (Bakersfield)

[AztecPadre]

5 hours ago, Cal 14 said:

This is the third installment of the NorCal Report.  For the sections in which the playoffs will be starting this week, the seeds are listed beside each team (# seed, division).

Sac-Joaquin Section

Regular season over.  All ranked teams from last week won, except for Del Oro.  That was expected, though, since they were facing Folsom.  The only surprise was how close Placer's win was.  Top four seeds in the playoffs get byes this week.

1.  Folsom (#1, D-I):  40-0 dismantling of Del Oro was actually one of the closest games of the year for the Bulldogs. 

2.  Monterey Trail (#2, D-I):  The Mustangs completed their demolition of the Metropolitan League, but we may still not find out how good they are until they face Oak Ridge in the semis.

3.  Capital Christian (#1, D-III):  The Cougars complete their undefeated regular season, may get interesting game in the semis against Antelope.

4.  Inderkum (#3, D-II):  The Tigers finish the season with an easy win, look to potential match-up in semis against Central Catholic.

5.  Del Oro (#1, D-II):  Given the recent results for the Golden Eagles, I half-expected their game against Folsom to be decided by more than 40 points.  Considering Del Oro already has a blow-out win against #4 seed Granite Bay, their path to the finals appears relatively smooth.

6.  Central Catholic (#2, D-II):  The Raiders benefit from a strong non-league schedule to secure the #2 seed in the D-II playoffs.  Great potential match-up with Inderkum looms in the semis.

7.  Sheldon (#5, D-I):  Because of the use of calpreps.com as seeding determination, the Huskies only received the #5 seed.  Interesting game against #4 seed St. Mary's is a possibility in the semifinals.

8.  Oak Ridge (#3, D-I):  The Trojans could get an interesting potential game with #4 seed, Monterey Trail, in the semifinals of the SJS D-I playoffs.

9.  Placer (#2, D-III):  Strangely close game against Lincoln drops the Hillmen a couple of spots (Oak Ridge beat the Zebras by 36).  Potential match-up with undefeated Merced in the semis looks very enticing.

 

North Coast Section

Regular season over.  The only surprise of the week was Monte Vista falling to San Ramon Valley.  Only mild drama as Pittsburg had to beat rival Antioch to insure a bid into to the Open Division.  Because the Open Division only has four teams, there will be a bye week, while all other divisions start this weekend.

1.  De La Salle (#1, D-Open):  The Spartans capped the regular season by blasting California 49-0.  Now, it's a two-week wait for Pittsburg in the first round of the Open Division.

2.  Liberty (#2, D-Open):  The Lions clobbered cross-town rival Heritage, as expected.  Good challenge in Clayton Valley Charter in the first round of the Open Division awaits in two weeks.

3.  Clayton Valley Charter (#3, D-Open):  The Ugly Eagles continued their domination of Diablo-Foothill opponents.  Next is a date with Liberty.  Winner gets De La Salle in the finals, but also a bid into the NorCal regionals.

4.  Pittsburg (#4, D-Open):  The Pirates whipped rival Antioch to secure an invitation to the NCS Open Division.  A lot of people see their game against De La Salle as a likely blowout, but I believe it's going to be relatively close as Pitt's D is quite good.

5.  Cardinal Newman (#1, D-III):  The Cardinals complete a 9-1 regular season and get the top seed in D-III.  Road to at least the semifinals looks very manageable, where they could meet undefeated Eureka.

6.  Rancho Cotate (#1, D-II):  Cougars register their second consecutive shutout en route to garnering the top seed in D-II.  Potential semifinal game against Granada looks very interesting.

7.  Eureka (#2, D-III):  The undefeated Loggers make a surprise visit to these rankings not because of their record or their playoff seeding, but rather because no one else seemed to want it.  A bye this week, but a chance to play undefeated Las Lomas in the semis is on the horizon.

 

Central Coast Section

Last week of the regular season.  Last week saw a moderate upset when Palma edged Aptos to force a rare 4-way tie in the Pacific Coast Athletic League-Gabilan Division.  Huge game this week in the West Catholic Athletic League could have major implications in league, playoff seedings, and rankings.

1.  St. Francis (D-Open II):  The Lancer defense continues to be stellar, while the offense has been able to do just enough to win games.  Will that be enough against a high-powered team like Serra?

2.  Valley Christian (D-Open II):  The Warriors record their third shutout of the season and hope for Serra to upset St. Francis to force a tri-championship in the WCAL.

3.  Serra (D-Open II):  Probably the CCS game of the year will be this weekend when the Padres host St. Francis on Saturday.  A win would justify considering the loss to VC as a fluke.

4.  Wilcox (D-Open II):  The Chargers had a late-season bye last week and will have a virtual one this week en route to the top seed in either the CCS D-Open I or II playoffs (current projection is D-I, but that could change).

5.  Menlo-Atherton (D-Open I):  The Bears have clearly established themselves as the threat they were anticipated to be at the beginning of the year.  M-A also won the CCS D-Open I title in 2016.

6.  Palma (D-0pen III):  The Chieftains recorded their second upset of the season (the other was early in the year against Menlo-Atherton).  This week, they face off against rival Hollister for a chance at a league co-championship (Aptos will play Salinas for the other part of the co-championship).

 

Central Section

Regular season over.  Two big games end in predicted fashion and therefore don't really impact rankings.  Playoff seedings also go as expected.

1.  Central (#1, D-I):  Although the win over Clovis East was closer than expected, the Grizzlies remain solid favorites to repeat as CS D-I champs.  Central gets the only bye in the D-I bracket.

2.  Buchanan (#2, D-I):  The Bears have a relatively easy time against Clovis North.  Next up is 2-8 Clovis West, who Buchanan beat 35-7 a few weeks ago (remember what I said about the CS playoffs?).

3.  Liberty (#3, D-I):  The Patriots justified their ranking with a tough-fought 7-0 win over Bakersfield.  Next true challenge may not be until the semifinals against Buchanan.

4.  Bakersfield (#4, D-I):  The Drillers fell to Liberty, but still got the 4-seed in the CS D-I playoffs.  It's possible that St. Josephs could provide an interesting game in the second round, but I wouldn't count on it.

5.  Tulare Union (#1, D-II):  The Redskins scored a solid win over rival Tulare Western, 35-14 and secured the top seed in the CS D-II playoffs.  It does not appear that they'll be challenged much until a likely rematch against the second-seeded Mustangs in the finals.  T-U gets a bye this week.

6.  San Joaquin Memorial (#1, D-III):  The undefeated Panthers are solid favorites to take home the CS D-III title.  Unsure that even second-seeded Bakersfield Christian will put up a huge fight.

7.  Tulare Western (#2, D-II):  Although the Mustangs took it on the chin last week, they don't appear to have a major roadblock towards a rematch against rival Tulare Union in the CS D-II finals.

 

Overall NorCal Top 10

1.  De La Salle

2.  Folsom

3.  Liberty (Brentwood)

4.  Central

5.  Clayton Valley Charter

6.  Pittsburg

7.  Buchanan

8.  St. Francis

9.  Monterey Trail

10.  Liberty (Bakersfield)

Who has Palma as #6 in CCS?

[AztecPadre]

They're not even #1 in Monterey County. John Devine does the local rankings as I'm sure you know and he has you know who as numero uno!!

[Goldmember]

12 hours ago, Cal 14 said:

A lot of people see their game against De La Salle as a likely blowout, but I believe it's going to be relatively close as Pitt's D is quite good.

In these situations I always wonder if the person is trying to lie to us or if they're really this incompetent in analyzing performance.

Pittsburg gives up an average of 20 points per game.

They've only kept their opponents to single digits twice all year.

These are their 8 double digit performances: 38, 35, 35, 14, 14, 20, 24, 10

So they've given up 5 touchdowns or more three times.

Under what circumstance is this defense "quite good"?

[Cal 14]

7 hours ago, Goldmember said:

In these situations I always wonder if the person is trying to lie to us or if they're really this incompetent in analyzing performance.

Pittsburg gives up an average of 20 points per game.

They've only kept their opponents to single digits twice all year.

These are their 8 double digit performances: 38, 35, 35, 14, 14, 20, 24, 10

So they've given up 5 touchdowns or more three times.

Under what circumstance is this defense "quite good"?

In these situations I always wonder if someone who is throwing out stats is trying to hide something from us or if they’re really incompetent in analyzing data.

Pitt held both Liberty and Centennial 21 points below their scoring average.  When just considering regulation, they did the same thing to Clayton Valley Charter (14 of their 38 points were from two overtimes).

Liberty was held to 56 yards rushing, Centennial to 92.  For perspective, Cardinal Newman allowed 192 to the Lions and Orange Lutheran gave up 226 to the Huskies.

Really, Pittsburg played a lot of teams with good offenses, but only Serra was able to get close to their scoring average (35 vs and average of 38) and that was nearly all through the air (332 yards passing vs only 25 rushing).

Under what circumstances are these numbers not “quite good”?

Teams that moved the ball on the did so through mostly through the air (Liberty threw for 325 yards, Centennial 410, Serra 332).  Although De La Salle’s passing has improved, they’re hardly a “passing team”. Pittsburg’s strength on D matches directly up with the Spartan’s strength on O.    While I’m not anticipating the Pirates to hold DLS to 21 points below their average, I am thinking somewhere along the lines of 14-16 points below (for a score in the mid-20s).

[Cal 14]

8 hours ago, AztecPadre said:

They're not even #1 in Monterey County. John Devine does the local rankings as I'm sure you know and he has you know who as numero uno!!

Devine has to sell papers to Carmel residents.  Also, people have a tendency to be entrenched by “conventional wisdom”.  That said, if you listened to his podcast before last week, he had Aptos at #1, but predicted Palma would beat them.

The facts are clear as day.  After Salinas, Carmel played a very weak schedule that has prevented them from really developing and reaching their potential.  You don’t learn anything about your team when you beat someone 56-7.  This was painfully evident in their 14-0 win over MVC and when they went into the half losing to ALISAL.

After Carmel and Clovis, Salinas clearly made adjustments and greatly improved.  Palma changed their offensive play calling after their loss to Salinas.  Those adjustments have shown results on the field.  Barely beating MVC and Alisal tells me that the Padres aren’t much different than from the beginning of the year.

Further, if you’re going to bank on a game played way back in week 0, then you can’t also discount these results:

Christopher (who was pummeled in the Gabilan) 17, Monte Vista Christian 14

Terra Nova 31, Alisal 14

Palma 26, Menlo-Atherton 20

Aptos 35, Monte Vista Christian 0

Palma 40, Aptos 35

The teams with whom Carmel has struggled recently are not high-quality programs.  The top teams in all three Open divisions are MUCH better.

But, ya know... go ahead and tell your friends on the Padre coaching staff that they can match up just fine with Aptos and beat Palma based on a game that was played two and a half months ago.

I will still say, though, that Carmel has a puncher’s chance.  If they were to make it to, or even win a state title game, that would be a huge boost to Monterey County football.  If that were to happen, I’d be the first person to applaud them and say I was wrong.  It’s just that I don’t see it happening.  A-leagues are a different world (except the Mount Hamilton... that league is terrible).

(For the record, I don’t also currently see Salinas making it past the semis in D-Open I, either, unfortunately.)

[Goldmember]

34 minutes ago, Cal 14 said:

Pitt held both Liberty and Centennial 21 points below their scoring average.  When just considering regulation, they did the same thing to Clayton Valley Charter (14 of their 38 points were from two overtimes).

And all of this is irrelevant because you can't account for the other, yes third, team that scored 35 of them (Serra). Multiple teams scoring 5 touchdowns against a defense can't be written off by a scoring average comparison.

[Goldmember]

37 minutes ago, Cal 14 said:

Liberty was held to 56 yards rushing, Centennial to 92.  For perspective, Cardinal Newman allowed 192 to the Lions and Orange Lutheran gave up 226 to the Huskies.

Again, none of this speaks to how "quite" good" their defense is.

For perspective, telling us about what other crappy teams did against comparable competition has nothing to do with how "quite good" Pittsburg's defense is.

[Goldmember]

49 minutes ago, Cal 14 said:

Really, Pittsburg played a lot of teams with good offenses, but only Serra was able to get close to their scoring average (35 vs and average of 38) and that was nearly all through the air (332 yards passing vs only 25 rushing).

And got shredded by them.

"'Quite good" defenses don't get shredded every time they play a "good" offense.

And the Serra line is "quite" funny. So 332 yards through the air is *not* relevant to their defenses' performance?

[Goldmember]

41 minutes ago, Cal 14 said:

Under what circumstances are these numbers not “quite good”?

By circumstances understood by every person of average intelligence and experience.

20 points per game is not "quite good"

Getting shredded every time you play a "good" defense is not "quite good"

Giving up double digits in 80% of your games is not "quite good"

[Goldmember]

44 minutes ago, Cal 14 said:

Teams that moved the ball on the did so through mostly through the air (Liberty threw for 325 yards, Centennial 410, Serra 332). 

So you're going to repeat this stupid line?

Somehow if you give up yards through the air it doesn't count as much. At least according to Cal 14.

Those numbers are atrocious, embarrassing, grotesque.

But you think they are the product of a defense that's "quite good."

[Goldmember]

1 hour ago, Cal 14 said:

Pitt held both Liberty and Centennial 21 points below their scoring average.

Also, think about how dishonest someone must be to post something like this.

Centennial has run up the score against Santiago (59), Roosevelt (84), Valley View (77), Corona (78) and King (80).

What have they scored against teams with at least a faint pulse? 45, 35, 28, 35, 42. That's an average of 37 points per game.

Needing to purposefully mislead to make your point? Sad.

I bet the next thing you're going to tell us is that Norco's defense is quite good too because they only gave up 28 to Centennial. That's 28 points below their average!

[Extremely Humble]

Just for fun, let's say Pitt pulls off a miracle and manages to beat DLS. Does Folsom go to the Open? I personally think DLS beats Pitt by 3-4 TD's but any given Sunday. 

[ThunderRam]

27 minutes ago, Extremely Humble said:

Just for fun, let's say Pitt pulls off a miracle and manages to beat DLS. Does Folsom go to the Open? I personally think DLS beats Pitt by 3-4 TD's but any given Sunday. 

I wish that given Sunday would come again soon

[Ararar]

32 minutes ago, Extremely Humble said:

any given Sunday.

Not in NorCal where DLS is concerned 

[Extremely Humble]

4 minutes ago, ThunderRam said:

I wish that given Sunday would come again soon

You and I waiting for that Sunday 

 

[ThunderRam]

On 10/31/2018 at 4:15 PM, Cal 14 said:

2.  Buchanan (#2, D-I):  The Bears have a relatively easy time against Clovis North.  Next up is 2-8 Clovis West, who Buchanan beat 35-7 a few weeks ago (remember what I said about the CS playoffs?).

 

It's too bad the CS didn't adopt the same 4 win requirement the SJS did. I think 2 league wins are still required too (am I wrong about that?).

Just like the NS, I think it's ridiculous that a 2-8 or 3-7 team can make the postseason. Shouldn't happen. And it can't happen in SJS anymore.

[Extremely Humble]

12 minutes ago, Ararar said:

Not in NorCal where DLS is concerned 

god damn't

[Exocet 98]

1 hour ago, Extremely Humble said:

god damn't

NorCal ,.AKA DLS baby seal Slapdicks for 27 years. LOL!! 

[Cal 14]

2 hours ago, Extremely Humble said:

Just for fun, let's say Pitt pulls off a miracle and manages to beat DLS. Does Folsom go to the Open? I personally think DLS beats Pitt by 3-4 TD's but any given Sunday. 

Is your assumption that they also take the NCS Open Division overall?

That would create a mess.  Common opponent tie-breaker over both Folsom and a potentially unbeaten St. Francis may still put Pitt in the state Open.  CIF could throw an unbeaten Central to the Braves... er, wolves.

I’m thinking that most fans would want Folsom to advance... especially SS fans like Sammy.  😉

[Cal 14]

2 hours ago, ThunderRam said:

 

It's too bad the CS didn't adopt the same 4 win requirement the SJS did. I think 2 league wins are still required too (am I wrong about that?).

Just like the NS, I think it's ridiculous that a 2-8 or 3-7 team can make the postseason. Shouldn't happen. And it can't happen in SJS anymore.

Unsure about the 2-win thing, but maybe.  

The NS has too many playoff teams, but its number of divisions are almost necessary due to the vast number of tiny schools and discrepancy of enrollments.  Also, at the time, changing their D-I name to D-II made sense, but it seems kind of silly with the current setup.

[On2whls]

11 hours ago, Goldmember said:

What have they scored against teams with at least a faint pulse? 45, 35, 28, 35, 42. That's an average of 37 points per game.

FWIW, the 28pts against Norco happened in 1qtr and 4seconds prior to lightning delay.  Norco opted not to continue the following day.  That would be the only game they would purposely run the score up on (bad blood).  The rest of the blowouts attributable to totally outmatched opponents.  

[Extremely Humble]

1 hour ago, Cal 14 said:

Is your assumption that they also take the NCS Open Division overall?

That would create a mess.  Common opponent tie-breaker over both Folsom and a potentially unbeaten St. Francis may still put Pitt in the state Open.  CIF could throw an unbeaten Central to the Braves... er, wolves.

I’m thinking that most fans would want Folsom to advance... especially SS fans like Sammy.  😉

I don’t think Sammy and friends would really want that. Too much to lose. 

[On2whls]

1 minute ago, Extremely Humble said:

I don’t think Sammy and friends would really want that. Too much to lose. 

Believe me, SJB and MD players and fans don’t care who the Nor Cal SBG rep is.   On the flip side, if by some weird turn of events, they both failed to advance, there would be a giant sigh of relief up North.

[Extremely Humble]

1 hour ago, On2whls said:

Believe me, SJB and MD players and fans don’t care who the Nor Cal SBG rep is.   On the flip side, if by some weird turn of events, they both failed to advance, there would be a giant sigh of relief up North.

If SJB wins out and DLS beats SJB in the open (unlikely), does DLS win the national championship? I think so.

I believe the NorCal  representative will want to play SJB or MD. They’ll have nothing to lose and everything to win.