golfaddict1 Posted November 20, 2018 Report Share Posted November 20, 2018 Round 1: Joe Pinkos - Overall, 81-19 (81%), 3A-8A 63-17 (79%), 5A-8A 52-12 (81%) CalPreps - Overall, 79-21 (79%), 3A-8A 61-19 (76%), 5A-8A 51-13 (80%) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Round 2: Joe Pinkos - Overall 51-13 (80%,) 3A-8A 38-10 (79%), 5A-8A 24-8 (75%) CalPreps - Overall 48-16 (75%), 3A-8A 35-13 (73%), 5A-8A 21-11 (66%) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Round 3: CalPreps - Overall 25-7 (78%), 3A-8A 17-7 (71%), 5A-8A 10-6 (63%) Joe Pinkos - Overall 24-8 (75%), 3A-8A 17-7 (71%), 5A-8A 10-6 (63%) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Round 4: CalPreps - Overall 13-3 (81%), 3A-8A 10-2 (83%), 5A-8A 7-1 (88%) Joe Pinkos - Overall 12-4 (75%), 3A-8A 9-3 (75%), 5A-8A 6-2 (75%) Round 5: CalPreps - Overall 6-2 (75%), 3A-8A 3-2 (60%), 5A-8A (2-2) (50%) Joe Pinkos - Overall 4-4 (50%), 3A-8A 2-4 (33%), 5A-8A (1-3) (25%) Cumulative Joe Pinkos - Overall 172-48 (78%), 3A-8A 129-41 (76%), 5A-8A 93-31 (75%) CalPreps - Overall 171-49 (78%), 3A-8A 126-44 (74%), 5A-8A 91-33 (73%) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AztecPadre Posted November 20, 2018 Report Share Posted November 20, 2018 Who's Joe Pinkos? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Columbiafan Posted November 20, 2018 Report Share Posted November 20, 2018 1 hour ago, AztecPadre said: Who's Joe Pinkos? Computer algorithm but unlike calpreps the person who created it actually knows something about FL football 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
golfaddict1 Posted November 26, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 26, 2018 On 11/20/2018 at 1:05 PM, golfaddict1 said: Last week's tally round 2... Joe Pinkos impressive week, especially in the meat and potatoes 5A-8A classes. Joe Pinkos - Overall 51-13 80%, 3A-8A 38-10 79%, 5A-8A 24-8 75% CalPreps - Overall 48-16 75%, 3A-8A 35-13 73%, 5A-8A 21-11 66% Round 3 results CalPreps - Overall 25-7 78%, 3A-8A 17-7 71%, 5A-8A 10-6 63% Joe Pinkos - Overall 24-8 75%, 3A-8A 17-7 71%, 5A-8A 10-6 63% Both went 1-3 in 6A picks... Overall (round 2 & 3) Joe Pinkos 75-21 78% 3A-8A 55-17 76% 5A-8A 34-14 71% CalPreps 73-23 76% 3A-8A 52-20 72% 5A-8A 31-17 65% 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pops Posted November 26, 2018 Report Share Posted November 26, 2018 2 minutes ago, golfaddict1 said: Round 3 results CalPreps - Overall 25-7 78%, 3A-8A 17-7 71%, 5A-8A 10-6 63% Joe Pinkos - Overall 24-8 75%, 3A-8A 17-7 71%, 5A-8A 10-6 63% Both went 1-3 in 6A picks... Overall (round 2 & 3) Joe Pinkos 75-21 78% 3A-8A 55-17 76% 5A-8A 34-14 71% CalPreps 73-23 76% 3A-8A 52-20 72% 5A-8A 31-17 65% CP holding their own against. fL football expert Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
golfaddict1 Posted November 26, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 26, 2018 1 hour ago, Pops said: CP holding their own against. fL football expert Like with CP, the Pinkos algorithm will get better with more game data during the season, but as you can see above the higher class records are not as strong as one would expect. For a diluted state like FL , one would think 65% for 2nd and 3rd round games combined for 5A-8A would be a joke and 75%-80% would be acceptable range with 80% expected. In a week head to head with close game projections used only, Massey beat CP (somewhere archived I have this thread) but of course this is tiny data (like trying to scale states based on little to no interaction ). You know how much I despise playoff state scale boosts (date sensitive with state playoffs at different scheduled rounds, it makes for some skewed top 25's). I think CP does a better job of a top 25 than Massey does with this in mind and overall. I think CP scales states better overall. Massey I like how they have gradually dropped SFA (current #68, losing 5 spots from last week). I'll update the power rating list I created and share a Nov 3rd look as comparison (OH and IL were into the playoffs early at this point, but no FL CA or TX). At the end of the year when all the playoffs are completed, the algorithms will look fine I'm sure, with some ?'s (just like we will have with the main polls). I think the power rating list while not an actual ranking, does reflect a team's season's resume and can identify some schools where one may ? why is this team ranked so highly? Score differential could be the reason, which is not looked at in my points totals and/or brand name could be another reason). Score differential is factored into the top 350 schools I use for tallying though. It's just not emphasized anymore and playoffs are not boosted either but they are for the top 350 schools I use for tallying. In doing this novelty exercise, I can see the variances between CP and Massey very well and it is quite interesting to see them. I just cringe when I see Burke NE's rating for Massey. I almost want to asterisk a few ratings as * "C'mon man". 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
golfaddict1 Posted November 29, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 29, 2018 Cumulative through playoffs 1A-8A clases (each round's tally see initial post). Joe Pinkos - Overall 168-44 (79%), 3A-8A 127-37 (77%), 5A-8A 92-28 (77%) CalPreps - Overall 165-47 (78%), 3A-8A 123-41 (75%), 5A-8A 89-31 (74%) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
golfaddict1 Posted December 10, 2018 Author Report Share Posted December 10, 2018 Cumulative Joe Pinkos - Overall 172-48 (78%), 3A-8A 129-41 (76%), 5A-8A 93-31 (75%) CalPreps - Overall 171-49 (78%), 3A-8A 126-44 (74%), 5A-8A 91-33 (73%) The FL algorithm wins overall by a game, 3 games in the 3A-8A class and 2 games in the larger 5A-8A class. State finals, CalPreps and Massey went 6-2, Pinkos 4--4. Massey and CP lost STA and Columbus, while Pinkos also lost Cocoa and Armwood. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AztecPadre Posted December 10, 2018 Report Share Posted December 10, 2018 55 minutes ago, golfaddict1 said: Cumulative Joe Pinkos - Overall 172-48 (78%), 3A-8A 129-41 (76%), 5A-8A 93-31 (75%) CalPreps - Overall 171-49 (78%), 3A-8A 126-44 (74%), 5A-8A 91-33 (73%) The FL algorithm wins overall by a game, 3 games in the 3A-8A class and 2 games in the larger 5A-8A class. State finals, CalPreps and Massey went 6-2, Pinkos 4--4. Massey and CP lost STA and Columbus, while Pinkos also lost Cocoa and Armwood. So CalPreps is legitimized. Nicely done Ned. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Columbiafan Posted December 10, 2018 Report Share Posted December 10, 2018 Calpreps sucks and couldn't beat the homegrown FL algorithm 😂 FL > calpreps Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nolebull813 Posted December 10, 2018 Report Share Posted December 10, 2018 Both are visual diarrhea. There is no perfect algorithm to determine rankings. It is all opinion and common sense. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Columbiafan Posted December 10, 2018 Report Share Posted December 10, 2018 Just now, Nolebull813 said: Both are visual diarrhea. There is no perfect algorithm to determine rankings. It is all opinion and common sense. Yeah but the FL algorithm was developed in house and therefore better than the hogwash calpreps throws out there 😂 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AztecPadre Posted December 10, 2018 Report Share Posted December 10, 2018 21 minutes ago, Columbiafan said: Calpreps sucks and couldn't beat the homegrown FL algorithm 😂 FL > calpreps It lost by a couple games, against a FL "expert" algo. Not bad considering CalPrep does nation wide where as pinko is FL expert algo. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
golfaddict1 Posted December 11, 2018 Author Report Share Posted December 11, 2018 On 12/10/2018 at 11:25 AM, golfaddict1 said: State finals, CalPreps and Massey went 6-2, Pinkos 4-4. Massey and CP lost STA and Columbus, while Pinkos also lost Cocoa and Armwood. Sure they won the playoffs but Pinkos algorithm went 4-4 when the furthest data points were likely in play for the finals. FL finals should be time weighted or playoff boosted into the final tally . Also, just a random week I did in November with all games I noticed that were projected to be close games and thought it would be interesting to compare with various states involved. Massey won by 3 games or 69% to 66%. Massey CalPreps Massey projected spreads 15-10 0.600 16-9 0.640 0.5 - 2.5 16-6 0.727 13-9 0.591 3.5 - 5.5 29-11 0.725 28-12 0.700 6.5 - 8.5 60-27 0.690 57-30 0.655 10-7 0.588 7-10 0.412 17 game pick differences 5-0 5-0 California 4-0 4-0 Georgia 3-0 1-2 Missouri 3-0 2-1 Nebraska 2-0 2-0 Idaho 1-0 0-1 Maine 1-0 1-0 Montana 1-0 1-0 Alabama 1-0 1-0 Kansas 1-0 1-0 Mississippi 1-0 1-0 New Hampshire 0-2 1-1 Washington 0-1 0-1 Colorado 0-1 0-1 Tennessee 6-5 6-5 Ohio 5-5 4-6 Texas 4-2 5-1 Pennsylvania 4-2 3-3 Illinois 4-1 4-1 Florida 3-1 2-2 Wisconsin 3-1 3-1 Arizona 2-1 2-1 Michigan 2-1 2-1 Massachusetts 1-1 1-1 Utah 1-1 1-1 Iowa 1-1 2-0 Maryland 1-1 2-0 Indiana Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pops Posted December 13, 2018 Report Share Posted December 13, 2018 On 12/10/2018 at 9:25 AM, Nolebull813 said: Both are visual diarrhea. There is no perfect algorithm to determine rankings. It is all opinion and common sense. Between an algorithm and the common sense of most National hsfb fans, trust the algorithm 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheMaximumHornetSting Posted December 13, 2018 Report Share Posted December 13, 2018 37 minutes ago, Pops said: Between an algorithm and the common sense of most National hsfb fans, trust the algorithm Yeah... Trust the algorithm that has Oaks Christian ranked over Northshore and SJC.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Columbiafan Posted December 13, 2018 Report Share Posted December 13, 2018 45 minutes ago, Pops said: Between an algorithm and the common sense of most National hsfb fans, trust the algorithm Completely disagree I think most on here know their stuff Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pops Posted December 13, 2018 Report Share Posted December 13, 2018 1 hour ago, TheMaximumHornetSting said: Yeah... Trust the algorithm that has Oaks Christian ranked over Northshore and SJC.... I won’t argue that one (in fact I’ve made same point several times in last month) you can throw darts at any ranking tho CP does a great job ranking and pretty much every other evaluator uses them as a reference/ validation source Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pops Posted December 13, 2018 Report Share Posted December 13, 2018 2 hours ago, Columbiafan said: I think most on here know their stuff Well, you’re on the wrong path already if you think most people in here can rate/ rank as well as CP i’d say there’s a couple or three I think could compete and only because they can see what CP is thinking before they decide 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
noonereal Posted December 13, 2018 Report Share Posted December 13, 2018 On 11/20/2018 at 2:55 PM, Columbiafan said: Computer algorithm but unlike calpreps the person who created it actually knows something about FL football LOL, they both finished effectively tied. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
noonereal Posted December 13, 2018 Report Share Posted December 13, 2018 3 minutes ago, Pops said: Well, you’re on the wrong path already if you think most people in here can rate/ rank as well as CP i’d say there’s a couple or three I think could compete and only because they can see what CP is thinking before they decide other than myself and you, I don';t think anyone can rate better than they, 😘 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Columbiafan Posted December 13, 2018 Report Share Posted December 13, 2018 3 hours ago, Pops said: Well, you’re on the wrong path already if you think most people in here can rate/ rank as well as CP i’d say there’s a couple or three I think could compete and only because they can see what CP is thinking before they decide We had at least 10 people beat calpreps head to head in pickems for 1 Plus I've seen how calpreps ranked FL, it made me want to vomit Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Columbiafan Posted December 13, 2018 Report Share Posted December 13, 2018 3 hours ago, noonereal said: LOL, they both finished effectively tied. Yeah bingo If calpreps was so good it would have won easily Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Columbiafan Posted December 13, 2018 Report Share Posted December 13, 2018 3 hours ago, noonereal said: other than myself and you, I don';t think anyone can rate better than they, 😘 I can make a better FL poll than calpreps while I was blindfolded In fact i did just that in preseason Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
noonereal Posted December 13, 2018 Report Share Posted December 13, 2018 7 hours ago, Columbiafan said: I can make a better FL poll than calpreps while I was blindfolded In fact i did just that in preseason In your opinion. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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