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Joe Pinkos vs CalPreps FL playoffs, Pinkos wins


golfaddict1

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Round 1:   

Joe Pinkos   -  Overall,  81-19  (81%),  3A-8A  63-17  (79%),  5A-8A  52-12  (81%)

CalPreps      -  Overall,  79-21  (79%),  3A-8A  61-19  (76%),  5A-8A  51-13  (80%)   

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Round 2:    

Joe Pinkos  -   Overall 51-13  (80%,)  3A-8A  38-10  (79%),  5A-8A   24-8    (75%)

CalPreps      -   Overall 48-16  (75%),  3A-8A  35-13  (73%),  5A-8A   21-11  (66%)

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Round 3:   

CalPreps       -  Overall  25-7  (78%),  3A-8A   17-7  (71%),  5A-8A   10-6   (63%)

Joe Pinkos   -   Overall  24-8  (75%), 3A-8A   17-7   (71%),  5A-8A   10-6  (63%)

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Round 4: 

CalPreps       -   Overall   13-3 (81%),  3A-8A  10-2  (83%),  5A-8A   7-1  (88%)

Joe Pinkos   -   Overall   12-4  (75%), 3A-8A   9-3   (75%),   5A-8A   6-2  (75%)

 

Round 5:  

CalPreps      -    Overall    6-2  (75%),  3A-8A   3-2  (60%),     5A-8A  (2-2)  (50%)

Joe Pinkos  -     Overall    4-4  (50%),  3A-8A  2-4  (33%),     5A-8A  (1-3)   (25%)

 

Cumulative 

Joe Pinkos   -  Overall   172-48  (78%),  3A-8A   129-41  (76%),   5A-8A  93-31  (75%)

CalPreps      -   Overall   171-49  (78%),    3A-8A   126-44  (74%),   5A-8A  91-33  (73%)

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On 11/20/2018 at 1:05 PM, golfaddict1 said:

Last week's tally round 2...  Joe Pinkos impressive week, especially in the meat and potatoes 5A-8A classes.  

Joe Pinkos  -   Overall 51-13  80%,  3A-8A  38-10  79%,  5A-8A   24-8    75%

CalPreps      -   Overall 48-16  75%,  3A-8A  35-13  73%,  5A-8A   21-11  66%

 

Round 3 results 

CalPreps -     Overall  25-7  78%,  3A-8A  17-7  71%,  5A-8A  10-6  63%

Joe Pinkos -  Overall  24-8  75%,  3A-8A  17-7  71%,  5A-8A  10-6  63%

Both went 1-3 in 6A picks...   


Overall (round 2 & 3)  

Joe Pinkos   75-21    78%   3A-8A   55-17   76%   5A-8A   34-14   71%

CalPreps       73-23    76%   3A-8A   52-20   72%   5A-8A   31-17   65%

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2 minutes ago, golfaddict1 said:

Round 3 results 

CalPreps -     Overall  25-7  78%,  3A-8A  17-7  71%,  5A-8A  10-6  63%

Joe Pinkos -  Overall  24-8  75%,  3A-8A  17-7  71%,  5A-8A  10-6  63%

Both went 1-3 in 6A picks...   


Overall (round 2 & 3)  

Joe Pinkos   75-21    78%   3A-8A   55-17   76%   5A-8A   34-14   71%

CalPreps       73-23    76%   3A-8A   52-20   72%   5A-8A   31-17   65%

CP holding their own against. fL football expert 

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1 hour ago, Pops said:

CP holding their own against. fL football expert 

Like with CP,  the Pinkos algorithm will get better with more game data during the season, but as you can see above the higher class records are not as strong as one would expect.  For a diluted state like FL :) ,  one would think 65% for 2nd and 3rd round games combined for 5A-8A would be a joke and 75%-80% would be acceptable range with 80% expected.   

In a week head to head with close game projections used only, Massey beat CP (somewhere archived I have this thread) but of course this is tiny data (like trying to scale states based on little to no interaction :)).  

You know how much I despise playoff state scale boosts (date sensitive with state playoffs at different scheduled rounds, it makes for some skewed top 25's).    I think CP does a better job of a top 25  than Massey does with this in mind and overall.   I think CP scales states better overall.     Massey I like how they have gradually dropped SFA (current #68, losing 5 spots from last week).      I'll update the power rating list I created and share a Nov 3rd look as comparison (OH and IL were into the playoffs early at this point, but no FL CA or TX).   At the end of the year when all the playoffs are completed, the algorithms will look fine I'm sure, with some ?'s (just like we will have with the main polls). 

I think the power rating list while not an actual ranking, does reflect a team's season's resume and can identify some schools where one may ? why is this team ranked so highly?    Score differential could be the reason, which is not looked at in my points totals and/or brand name could be another reason).    Score differential is factored into the top 350 schools I use for tallying though.  It's just not emphasized anymore and playoffs are not boosted either but they are for the top 350 schools I use for tallying.   

In doing this novelty exercise, I can see the variances between CP and Massey very well and it is quite interesting to see them.   I just cringe when I see Burke NE's rating for Massey.   I almost want to asterisk a few ratings as * "C'mon man".   

 

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Cumulative 

Joe Pinkos   -  Overall   172-48  (78%),  3A-8A   129-41  (76%),   5A-8A  93-31  (75%)

CalPreps      -   Overall   171-49  (78%),    3A-8A   126-44  (74%),   5A-8A  91-33  (73%)

 

The FL algorithm wins overall by a game, 3 games in the 3A-8A class and 2 games in the larger 5A-8A class.  

State finals,  CalPreps and Massey went 6-2,  Pinkos 4--4.   Massey and CP lost STA and Columbus,  while Pinkos also lost Cocoa and Armwood.    

 

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55 minutes ago, golfaddict1 said:

Cumulative 

Joe Pinkos   -  Overall   172-48  (78%),  3A-8A   129-41  (76%),   5A-8A  93-31  (75%)

CalPreps      -   Overall   171-49  (78%),    3A-8A   126-44  (74%),   5A-8A  91-33  (73%)

 

The FL algorithm wins overall by a game, 3 games in the 3A-8A class and 2 games in the larger 5A-8A class.  

State finals,  CalPreps and Massey went 6-2,  Pinkos 4--4.   Massey and CP lost STA and Columbus,  while Pinkos also lost Cocoa and Armwood.    

 

So CalPreps is legitimized.  Nicely done Ned.  

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On 12/10/2018 at 11:25 AM, golfaddict1 said:

State finals,  CalPreps and Massey went 6-2,  Pinkos 4-4.   Massey and CP lost STA and Columbus,  while Pinkos also lost Cocoa and Armwood.    

 

Sure they won the playoffs but Pinkos algorithm went 4-4 when the furthest data points were likely in play for the finals.   FL finals should be time weighted or playoff boosted into the final tally :) .      

Also, just a random week I did in November with all games I noticed that were projected to be close games and thought it would be interesting to compare with various states involved.   Massey won by 3 games or 69% to 66%.

 

Massey   CalPreps   Massey projected spreads
15-10 0.600 16-9 0.640 0.5 - 2.5
16-6 0.727 13-9 0.591 3.5 - 5.5
29-11 0.725 28-12 0.700 6.5 - 8.5
60-27 0.690 57-30 0.655  
         
10-7 0.588 7-10 0.412 17 game pick differences
         
5-0   5-0   California
4-0   4-0   Georgia
3-0   1-2   Missouri
3-0   2-1   Nebraska
2-0   2-0   Idaho
1-0   0-1   Maine
1-0   1-0   Montana
1-0   1-0   Alabama
1-0   1-0   Kansas
1-0   1-0   Mississippi
1-0   1-0   New Hampshire
0-2   1-1   Washington
0-1   0-1   Colorado
0-1   0-1   Tennessee
6-5   6-5   Ohio
5-5   4-6   Texas
4-2   5-1   Pennsylvania
4-2   3-3   Illinois
4-1   4-1   Florida
3-1   2-2   Wisconsin
3-1   3-1   Arizona
2-1   2-1   Michigan
2-1   2-1   Massachusetts
1-1   1-1   Utah
1-1   1-1   Iowa
1-1   2-0   Maryland
1-1   2-0   Indiana

 

 

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1 hour ago, TheMaximumHornetSting said:

Yeah... 

Trust the algorithm that has Oaks Christian ranked over Northshore and  SJC.... 

I won’t argue that one (in fact I’ve made same point several times in last month)

you can throw darts at any ranking tho

CP does a great job ranking and pretty much every other evaluator uses them as a reference/ validation source 

 

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2 hours ago, Columbiafan said:

I think most on here know their stuff 

Well, you’re on the wrong path already if you think most people in here can rate/ rank as well as CP

i’d say there’s a couple or three I think could compete and only because they can see what CP is thinking before they decide

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3 minutes ago, Pops said:

Well, you’re on the wrong path already if you think most people in here can rate/ rank as well as CP

i’d say there’s a couple or three I think could compete and only because they can see what CP is thinking before they decide

other than myself and you, I don';t think anyone can rate better than they, 😘

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3 hours ago, Pops said:

Well, you’re on the wrong path already if you think most people in here can rate/ rank as well as CP

i’d say there’s a couple or three I think could compete and only because they can see what CP is thinking before they decide

We had at least 10 people beat calpreps head to head in pickems for 1

 

Plus I've seen how calpreps ranked FL, it made me want to vomit 

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