STA (13-1) vs. Lakeland (14-0), 7A title game analysis

[badrouter]

Lakeland and St. Thomas Aquinas meet for the 8th time in the playoffs, and sixth time in a state title game. They have played each other for a state title more than any other two teams in state history. Lakeland is 5-2 all-time (games played between 1996 and 2008 prior to this year) and 4-1 in state title match ups. Both teams have blown the other out; both have won on the other's home field. The 2006 game is considered by many to be the most exciting finish to a title game in Florida history.

When Lakeland has the ball:

The strengths of Lakeland's offense are their blocking at the point of attack (both OL and TEs) and their running back. OL D. Hammond is a 4*, Under Armour All-American as is TE Keon Zipperer. Zipperer and 6'5" 250 lb. Keavis Dyer form what is likely the most punishing pair of blockers at the TE position of any team in the country. It is my opinion that, when all is said and done, RB Demarckus Bowman will go down as the best RB Lakeland has ever produced. He may well be the best RB STA has ever faced. Of course, he has a lot to do in order to prove that to be true. 

Lakeland's weakness is it's passing game. The QB McWilliams has "nifty" feet, but has generally been the weak point all year. He was limited the first half of the season with a hamstring injury and has come on late to keep defenses from keying on Bowman.

For this unit to be successful, they must be patient and McWilliams has to make some key throws. They must force the defense to either respect Zipperer and the passing game, or hurt them if they don't. I believe they are capable of some limited success through the air, but not more than 3-4 key, difficult completions (along with some quicker, simpler throws). They can't commit stupid personal foul penalties as they have been prone to do in earlier games.

STA's defense is playing with all Power 5 players. So, they are quite obviously good and without any glaring weaknesses. 

When STA has the ball:

Lakeland is strongest on the DL, with a solid LB core behind them. The best DL at present may be A.J. Thomas, who has 17 sacks on the season. He's the size/speed of a physical safety playing DE. As such, he has zero stars. The other three DL are either 3* or 4* Lloyd Summerall. They are a bit light at DT. But, along with a physical group of linebackers (Jaharie Martin started for Lake Gibson in the 2016 state title game vs. Carol City), they've not had anyone run up the gut on them with any consistency. 

Lakeland's secondary features 3* Fenley Graham, who has several power 5 offers. As a whole, most recognize this unit as the weakest part of the defense. There have only been a handful of bad breakdowns all year, but the 3rd quarter showing against Plant was alarming. I don't think this is a bad unit by any means. But they must avoid getting beat deep and/or making slants and curls ridiculously easy.

STA struggled at times offensively last year. But, save for a slow start against Dematha, they've appeared to be unstoppable on this side of the ball as well.

Special Teams: 

Both teams have been lethal in generating TDs on returns and blocks. Lakeland has blocked 8 punts on the year, several safeties and has numerous huge returns. Ditto STA.

Keys to the game:

Lakeland is the clear underdog given they have a max of 8 guys with Power 5 offers and STA has over 20. For Lakeland to win, they'll have to do what they've done many times in the past: Have guys with zero stars play and look like better players than who they're faced up against. The OL needs to keep STA's DL out of the backfield to give Bowman a chance to get to the 2nd level unscathed. If he can get to that level unscathed with any consistency, he'll have another huge night and Lakeland has a really good shot to win. QB McWilliams will have to avoid mistakes, make a few plays with his legs and at least hit the passes that are simpler and ostensibly able to be completed.  The DL needs to be in the backfield early and often. And the entire defense needs to play with patience and not overreact if STA gets several first downs. And I think Lakeland needs to outscore STA in the special teams and turnover areas. I think both teams are capable of creating big plays against the other in special teams. STA can't end up on top in that area if Lakeland is to win.

Prediction:

I don't fucking know. I've conceded that STA is the favorite. But, what the hell. Lakeland has won every single game by at least 17 points. And I'm not a pussy.

Lakeland 34, STA 17.

 

You all have the floor. Will @Goldmember chime in with any thoughts prior to the game?

[Columbiafan]

4 minutes ago, badrouter said:

I realize most of you aren't real big on breaking down match ups with any sort of detail. The simple, "mic drop" comment is all most of you are interested in. But, thought I'd try to see if anyone has anything of substance to contribute to a discussion of how these teams match up. Lakeland's strengths and weaknesses, STA's strengths and weaknesses etc. I'll edit this post in a day or two and give my thoughts. But, first, I'll ask if anyone is familiar enough with both teams to actually offer something more than "STA will win 100-0, "Lakeland's played nobody" or "Don Bosco is 2-0 vs. STA".

You all have the floor. Will @Goldmember chime in with any thoughts prior to the game?

You are better off getting real observation out of @954gator or @golfaddict1

 

They are only 2 sta guys active who actually know anything, the 3rd guy (Los) is just a jackass

[badrouter]

Los would have good insight to offer, which is why he probably won't offer it here. 😂

[Columbiafan]

1 minute ago, badrouter said:

Los would have good insight to offer, which is why he probably won't offer it here. 😂

Maybe in his own head

 

Only no one else will ever know how much he knows or how full of shit he is

[954gator]

STA has a very strong Oline and is much more successful with it's power run game than last year.   They tend to chunk you more than break it to the house.   Cooney is an x factor and can break some big plays off in the slot.  He's tiny but fast as hell.  The hardest player to stop in the pass game is Marcus Rosemy.   He has really come on strong and will be a big 2020 prospect.   Elite route runner and hands.  Overall the pass game is much more successful.   I think a lot has to do with the Oline and running game able to do work thus Casteel is a lot more confident back there.   Moves much better in the pocket as well.

Defense is solid as always.   Maybe a little over aggressive and can get hit with PIs etc.   Central was the offense that was most successful against STA.  They spread everyone out wide and and ran the ball out of the shotgun.   I've yet to see a power run game in a heavier set have much success.  

It will be hard to move the ball if Lakeland doesn't open up the pass game IMO.   Either way it should be a great game.   Miss the Lakeland STA showdowns!   

[HawgGoneIt]

I haven't watched a ton of either team this year, but looking at roster comparisons initially, it looks like Lakeland has an uphill battle in the trenches to me. 

I'm not saying they can't win, but, STA is going to be better there. That usually doesn't bode well for a win if you're the opponent 

[badrouter]

13 minutes ago, HawgGoneIt said:

I haven't watched a ton of either team this year, but looking at roster comparisons initially, it looks like Lakeland has an uphill battle in the trenches to me. 

I'm not saying they can't win, but, STA is going to be better there. That usually doesn't bode well for a win if you're the opponent 

The trenches were the areas where I was thinking it could be a draw. OL/DL for both teams are the areas where STA doesn't really have much/any of a recruited-player advantage. And Lakeland has added in a LG and TE/DT who have zero stars at the moment but physically can absolutely hang.

[954gator]

15 minutes ago, HawgGoneIt said:

I haven't watched a ton of either team this year, but looking at roster comparisons initially, it looks like Lakeland has an uphill battle in the trenches to me. 

I'm not saying they can't win, but, STA is going to be better there. That usually doesn't bode well for a win if you're the opponent 

https://247sports.com/Player/Deyavie-Hammond-45573301/  OL

https://247sports.com/Player/Aleek-Saint-Aime-46039437/    OL

https://247sports.com/Player/Keon-Zipperer-45573302/    TE

https://247sports.com/Player/Latrell-Jean-46040155/   SDE/DT

https://247sports.com/Player/Lloyd-Summerall-46050017/  DE

https://247sports.com/Player/Tre-Huntley-46046993/   DE

6 Guys on LOS with D1 offers.   Add to that 2 ILBs 220ish with offers as well.   Just sayin.   

[HawgGoneIt]

5 minutes ago, badrouter said:

The trenches were the areas where I was thinking it could be a draw. OL/DL for both teams are the areas where STA doesn't really have much/any of a recruited-player advantage. And Lakeland has added in a LG and TE/DT who have zero stars at the moment but physically can absolutely hang.

I'll have to go deeper as I look at them for my pick 'em. I usually go through and make a few quick notes about my first impression as far as size, recruits etc. 

Then if it feels still pretty close I flip to hudl and check out some individual stuff etc. 

Haven't gotten that far on this match up yet. 

 

[badrouter]

The LG was at country town Mulberry as a Sophomore last season. So, he's sort of anonymous at the moment. But may well emerge after season. Here's his Plant highlights. http://www.hudl.com/v/2AucDZ

And, while I admit this may not be a super big deal, I bet you could get longtime supporters of STA to grant that the pair of TEs Lakeland has will be the most physically imposing pair of TEs they've ever faced at once.

[954gator]

13 minutes ago, badrouter said:

The trenches were the areas where I was thinking it could be a draw. OL/DL for both teams are the areas where STA doesn't really have much/any of a recruited-player advantage. And Lakeland has added in a LG and TE/DT who have zero stars at the moment but physically can absolutely hang.

Ehh I don't know about that.   STA trenches are pretty loaded and deep.   I think Lakeland will still have to cheat a bit with no monster DTs.   Latrell Jean is a pretty nasty player though and the Linebackers do work. 

[954gator]

2 minutes ago, badrouter said:

The LG was at country town Mulberry as a Sophomore last season. So, he's sort of anonymous at the moment. But may well emerge after season. Here's his Plant highlights. http://www.hudl.com/v/2AucDZ

And, while I admit this may not be a super big deal, I bet you could get longtime supporters of STA to grant that the pair of TEs Lakeland has will be the most physically imposing pair of TEs they've ever faced at once.

Damn he looks pretty good.  No offers yet?   Gonna probably need some guys like him to play some interior DL.    

[HawgGoneIt]

9 minutes ago, 954gator said:

https://247sports.com/Player/Deyavie-Hammond-45573301/  OL

https://247sports.com/Player/Aleek-Saint-Aime-46039437/    OL

https://247sports.com/Player/Keon-Zipperer-45573302/    TE

https://247sports.com/Player/Latrell-Jean-46040155/   SDE/DT

https://247sports.com/Player/Lloyd-Summerall-46050017/  DE

https://247sports.com/Player/Tre-Huntley-46046993/   DE

6 Guys on LOS with D1 offers.   Add to that 2 ILBs 220ish with offers as well.   Just sayin.   

I haven't watched any video on Lakeland yet, but, the offers don't always make up my mind. Coaching, depth, technique and timing plays more into my thought processes on the lines. 

 

 

[badrouter]

2 minutes ago, 954gator said:

Ehh I don't know about that.   STA trenches are pretty loaded and deep.   I think Lakeland will still have to cheat a bit with not monster DTs.   Latrell Jean is a pretty nasty player though and the Linebackers do work. 

Sure. They may need to work in the two guys I've mentioned at DT some. The lone DL without Power 5 offers may still be the best HS player. A.J. Thomas. 

[954gator]

1 minute ago, HawgGoneIt said:

I haven't watched any video on Lakeland yet, but, the offers don't always make up my mind. Coaching, depth, technique and timing plays more into my thought processes on the lines. 

 

 

That's true but when you have a guy 350ish up front on Oline and one of the best TE's in the nation on the edge it helps. 

[badrouter]

1 minute ago, HawgGoneIt said:

I haven't watched any video on Lakeland yet, but, the offers don't always make up my mind. Coaching, depth, technique and timing plays more into my thought processes on the lines. 

 

 

Yes, THAT is the kind of analysis I'm interested in. Lakeland has always taken pride in the OL, yet they've only had a few guys make it to the big time. But, OL is one area where people who know what they're talking about usually have much praise for Lakeland. (The 2009 team being a notable exception.)

[954gator]

1 minute ago, badrouter said:

Sure. They may need to work in the two guys I've mentioned at DT some. The lone DL without Power 5 offers may still be the best HS player. A.J. Thomas. 

Polk County tends to have a lot of underrated players.   That area is overlooked when it comes to player eval.   The scouts have been very lazy lately away from the big metro areas. 

[badrouter]

2 minutes ago, 954gator said:

Polk County tends to have a lot of underrated players.   That area is overlooked when it comes to player eval.   The scouts have been very lazy lately away from the big metro areas. 

Lakeland has also always been a but unique in how they've used guys. They fit players into roles that work in their grand scheme of things, but don't lead to college prospects. DE Thomas being a classic example. He's like 5'11" 200, runs like a running back. He's started all but one game, even though they could have used several other guys like Zipperer there instead. The kid isn't going to get much attention at any position given he's 5'11" 200 playing DE. But, I have no doubts whatever OT he faces will have his hands full. 

And they like to work in lighter guys at DT as well and then drop them at times to shut down screens etc.

[Columbiafan]

5 hours ago, 954gator said:

Polk County tends to have a lot of underrated players.   That area is overlooked when it comes to player eval.   The scouts have been very lazy lately away from the big metro areas. 

That could explain why some our players got no attention while you see players in Gainesville or Jacksonville that we dominate get the big offers

 

Or maybe those cities just ain't hungry 😂 

[Columbiafan]

Especially Gainesville

 

Bunch of softies and choke artists in that city

 

[badrouter]

Looks like @Goldmember will dodge the thread as expected. That's fine. But, if he comes back after the game and tries to tell us he "knew" what was going to happen, let it be shown he wasn't willing to share that before the game. Just saying it was bad that Lakeland forced a running clock in the state semifinals, but not until the 3rd quarter, doesn't qualify as a prediction for the STA game. If he "knows" STA is going to roll to a win, he should have no problem telling us before the game 😀

[RedZone]

goldmember has "STA" on ignore.

 

[PrepGridiron]

23 hours ago, badrouter said:

(The 2009 team being a notable exception.)

Thank you for this. Made my day. 😀

[badrouter]

32 minutes ago, PrepGridiron said:

Thank you for this. Made my day. 😀

haha, I was around the boards back then. So, I remember the discussions. If only that team had an OL on par with my Grace Brethren Golden Lions!

[CaliNorth]

52 minutes ago, badrouter said:

haha, I was around the boards back then. So, I remember the discussions. If only that team had an OL on par with my Grace Brethren Golden Lions!

Is the game being streamed do you know of ?