2019 Comp Poll (Final Poll of 2019)

[HawgGoneIt]

1 hour ago, MC Rockets said:

Massey has 5 California teams in their top 10. ABSOLUTELY nothing against Folsom, but I truly believe with computer polls there is a "west coast" bias.  

The hitch is that they actually do have at least 2 of the top 10 teams in the country. This creates the anomaly where all the closely connected teams s.o.s. is stout enough that they are also elevated in the algorithm just as Cal Preps prefers it.  This gives the impression there is a bias. 

I don't really think there is a way to solve that issue in the algorithms. The heavily weighted strength of schedule reward is where the issue is I think. At least my vommon sense tells me that's the case. 

 

 

[MC Rockets]

1 hour ago, frankyjames said:

I can see that. Similar to Calpreps. I have always said it's so tough to gauge local HS teams on a national level. It has only gotten a tad bit easier in recent years, due to the Internet. As of now, people still seem to use reputation and past results as bigger indicators than potential. 

I definitely would have to agree with you on that. 

[golfaddict1]

2 hours ago, MC Rockets said:

In the case of HSFBA rankings last year, I'm sure SFA's weak schedule played a part in them being ranked #52 in their final algorithm poll. I just think computer polls are dumb! Punch in a couple of numbers and let the computer do the work as if the computer watched the game, saw if the key man got hurt which could have changed the tone of the game, etc. Just lazy, but this is the world we live in now.  

Yes, I think Fisher left SFA out of his ratings entirely initially due to the weak schedule... not sure when or if he added them prior to the Geico game.    CalPreps basically had a hands off approach... as they never received a boldfaced game until the last game of the year, so they coasted along with the preseason rating basically, not being hit much because no games were registered to them yet.   

Freeman seems to be resembling more my profile photo  (Dexter from Dexter's Laboratory... used to love watching that show with my son and it depicts my disturbing interest in the analytics and the process of a futile attempt to rate teams in a national format with little correlating data to analyze... so the creators opt for various ways to define how to gauge OOS games (outside the state box of limited movement potential depending on said state).   Freeman tries on the fly now (weekly), while Massey subscribes to a 2 year rolling data process (as he felt at least some years back that the games of meaning were so few that another year was necessary and I don't think he adjusted his formula).  

My idea was to add Fisher to make 3 Dexters systems analyzed and find some common ground.   Unfortunately, he doesn't have or want to provide any list beyond his top 100 teams to the masses.    I wasn't asking for more than 250, but he was off to answer other questions and never replied back. 

Right or wrong, CP and Massey have some pretty cool novelty stuff to review if you're into that kind of X rated stuff.    

EW and EL stand for expected wins and losses.   SSF is strength of schedule as the entire schedule looks as of now.   I prepared this list below to show Massey's guesstimate preseason on who is projected to have the most wins (and least losses) in Cali regular season.  

 

With that said,  the human pollsters  knowledge of hsfb on a national scale has to be questioned as well.    How much does one person know about a nation of football from year to year?   Easy to reshuffle brand names and toss a few possible teams like a rising Eastside Catholic squad or an athletic Saguaro team into the mix if they dare... and no, winning pick ems or beating CalPreps from October on doesn't define you as a national pollster.  I did that and I could barely manage a top 10 attempting one years back.  It's a futile exercise, but we all dig reading about it and some discussing it... on to the season we go.  

[golfaddict1]

27 minutes ago, HawgGoneIt said:

The hitch is that they actually do have at least 2 of the top 10 teams in the country. This creates the anomaly where all the closely connected teams s.o.s. is stout enough that they are also elevated in the algorithm just as Cal Preps prefers it.  This gives the impression there is a bias. 

I don't really think there is a way to solve that issue in the algorithms. The heavily weighted strength of schedule reward is where the issue is I think. At least my vommon sense tells me that's the case. 

 

 

I can dig the risk/reward goal of an algorithm, but it is indeed a tough balancing act and what do you do with a powerhouse in-state who doesn't play a tough schedule or an OOS tilt at all?    

[HawgGoneIt]

9 minutes ago, golfaddict1 said:

I can dig the risk/reward goal of an algorithm, but it is indeed a tough balancing act and what do you do with a powerhouse in-state who doesn't play a tough schedule or an OOS tilt at all?    

It would be fine if the other polls didn't use it as a source and it's more or less affecting all the polls through power of suggestion. 

It's kind of like a hypnotist show that I saw recently. The hypnotist was explaining how hypnotism works basically, and tricked the entire audience into touching their cheek when he told them to touch their chin. 

He said cheek two or three times telling people to hold an o.k. sign with their fingers by their cheek. Hold it closer. That type of deal. Everyone is watching him and then he says to touch your chin while touching his own cheek. 

Everyone touched their cheek. He promptly asks, "Now where is your chin? Why did you touch your cheek then?"

Power of suggestion. 

 

The pollsters are hypnotised by the algorithm so all the polls look pretty much the same. 

The end. 

 

A story by HawgGoneIt, the armchair coach from Colquitt County. 

 

 

 

[AztecPadre]

7 hours ago, HawgGoneIt said:

 

Colquitt started at 34. 

Not sure of Columbia's starting rating, knew it was top 100. 

Saturday morning when doing my armchair coach's review of the game, Colquitt was #50 and Columbia #56. 

 

 

Today, both back to the 70s as CalPeps prefers.

Yes, intentionally left the R out. Not a typo.

Looks like it's that 70s show for Colquitt and Columbia. 

So what you're saying is the algorithm is working? Got it. We already knew this.

[AztecPadre]

6 hours ago, frankyjames said:

Massey has Folsom at #10. 

I think they are spot on. 

Welcome back homie!!

[HawgGoneIt]

30 minutes ago, AztecPadre said:

So what you're saying is the algorithm is working? Got it. We already knew this.

From a scrimmage game where there was no contact on qbs? Not even a game of record. 

Not sure if I'd even have it listed as a game if I was CP. Looks kinda silly in there listing scrimmages. Lol

[AztecPadre]

18 hours ago, HawgGoneIt said:

From a scrimmage game where there was no contact on qbs? Not even a game of record. 

Not sure if I'd even have it listed as a game if I was CP. Looks kinda silly in there listing scrimmages. Lol

But I thought KOC's in FL are real games minus it actually counting on the record? That's what we have been getting told here.

[MC Rockets]

52 minutes ago, AztecPadre said:

But I thought KOC's in FL are real games minus it actually counting on the record? That's what we have been getting told here.

That is correct. 

[imaGoodBoyNow]

On 8/19/2019 at 10:03 AM, imaGoodBoyNow said:

I wanna know who keeps saying Columbia’s a top 50 school 

 

theres 15 teams in Texas better than them 15 from Cali 1 from NV 9 From FL 2 Canada 10 From DMV 4 From Pennsylvania 8 From Jersey 8 From Geaorgia 2 From Hawaii 1 from Illinois 1 from Indiana 5 from Ohio 3 from Missouri 1 from NYC, 2 From Michigan 2 from Louisiana 2 from Alabama 2 from Colorado 1 from Arizona 1 from Washington 4 from the Carolinas 2 from Tennessee 3 Oklahoma 2 Kansas Utah 2 Arkansas 2 Iowa 2

We’re at like 121-131 right now

im not even halfway thru my list to get to where Columbia falls ... I still gotta list all the public schools now 😜

Atl don’t confuse at me ... ain’t no way Columbia HS of Lake City is no Top 130 team Let alone top 50

[imaGoodBoyNow]

3 hours ago, AztecPadre said:

But I thought KOC's in FL are real games minus it actually counting on the record? That's what we have been getting told here.

It switches up like how Good GRayson was Before and how good they were after the Bergen Catholic game

 

@AztecPadre I like how the KOC was called a  Controlled Scrimmage 

[MC Rockets]

12 minutes ago, imaGoodBoyNow said:

It switches up like how Good GRayson was Before and how good they were after the Bergen Catholic game

 

@AztecPadre I like how the KOC was called a  Controlled Scrimmage 

That's depending on what state you are in. In FL it's an all out football game. Just not counting in W-L record.

[imaGoodBoyNow]

10 minutes ago, MC Rockets said:

That's depending on what state you are in. In FL it's an all out football game. Just not counting in W-L record.

I’m sorry 😐 is Columbia in Florida or is it Not in Florida 

 

could have fooled me

[MC Rockets]

2 hours ago, imaGoodBoyNow said:

I’m sorry 😐 is Columbia in Florida or is it Not in Florida 

 

could have fooled me

Columbia is in Florida. Not sure how their KOC went with Colquitt, but in S. Florida it played like a regular season game. 

[imaGoodBoyNow]

7 minutes ago, MC Rockets said:

Columbia is in Florida. Not sure how their KOC went with Colquitt, but in S. Florida it played like a regular season game. 

Here’s some highlights I pulled from internet 

[954gator]

It’s funny Calpreps has Dematha at 8.   Is it because they are playing SJB?

[HawgGoneIt]

18 minutes ago, 954gator said:

It’s funny Calpreps has Dematha at 8.   Is it because they are playing SJB?

One would think that, but then we see Marietta at 92 and they're playing JSerra. 

Idk. This Cal Preps thing is pretty much garbage. I used to have hopes for it to be better or get better. Instead they keep fooling with it as "they prefer". 

They have Colquitt at 105 but in the same breath say that the Colquitt schedule is 25th toughest in the country while expecting them to only lose one game and also projecting a league finish of first place. 

I like to clown around about it and all, but, for real... This thing is a mess. 

 

SCHEDULE
2019 Schedule: 8/24 at North Gwinnett (Suwanee), 9/6 Thomasville, 9/13 at Valdosta, 9/20 Warner Robins, 9/27 Grayson (Loganville), 10/4 Alcovy (Covington), 10/11 Trinity Christian Academy (Jacksonville, FL), 10/18 at Camden County (Kingsland), 10/25 Tift County (Tifton), 11/1 at Lowndes (Valdosta)
Highest-Rated 2019 Regular Season Opponents:Trinity Christian Academy (Jacksonville, FL) (55.7), Lowndes (Valdosta) (53.6), North Gwinnett (Suwanee) (52.8)
Lowest-Rated 2019 Regular Season Opponents:Alcovy (Covington) (-26.6), Thomasville (23.6), Tift County (Tifton) (25.9)
2018 Regular Season Schedule Strength: 48.6 (46.8 overall)
2019 Regular Season Schedule Strength: 35.4
2019 vs. 2018 Schedule Strength Comparison: -13.2
2019 Regular Season Schedule Strength State Rank:#1
2019 Regular Season Schedule Strength National Rank: #25
2019 Projected Regular Season Record: 9-1
2019 Projected League Finish: 1st
2019 Undefeated Regular Season Probability: 38%
 

I suppose the projected loss would be to Trinity Christian at this point. 

 

...and they still have Rush Propst listed as head coach. 

[954gator]

15 minutes ago, HawgGoneIt said:

One would think that, but then we see Marietta at 92 and they're playing JSerra. 

Idk. This Cal Preps thing is pretty much garbage. I used to have hopes for it to be better or get better. Instead they keep fooling with it as "they prefer". 

They have Colquitt at 105 but in the same breath say that the Colquitt schedule is 25th toughest in the country while expecting them to only lose one game and also projecting a league finish of first place. 

I like to clown around about it and all, but, for real... This thing is a mess. 

 

SCHEDULE
2019 Schedule: 8/24 at North Gwinnett (Suwanee), 9/6 Thomasville, 9/13 at Valdosta, 9/20 Warner Robins, 9/27 Grayson (Loganville), 10/4 Alcovy (Covington), 10/11 Trinity Christian Academy (Jacksonville, FL), 10/18 at Camden County (Kingsland), 10/25 Tift County (Tifton), 11/1 at Lowndes (Valdosta)
Highest-Rated 2019 Regular Season Opponents:Trinity Christian Academy (Jacksonville, FL) (55.7), Lowndes (Valdosta) (53.6), North Gwinnett (Suwanee) (52.8)
Lowest-Rated 2019 Regular Season Opponents:Alcovy (Covington) (-26.6), Thomasville (23.6), Tift County (Tifton) (25.9)
2018 Regular Season Schedule Strength: 48.6 (46.8 overall)
2019 Regular Season Schedule Strength: 35.4
2019 vs. 2018 Schedule Strength Comparison: -13.2
2019 Regular Season Schedule Strength State Rank:#1
2019 Regular Season Schedule Strength National Rank: #25
2019 Projected Regular Season Record: 9-1
2019 Projected League Finish: 1st
2019 Undefeated Regular Season Probability: 38%
 

I suppose the projected loss would be to Trinity Christian at this point. 

 

...and they still have Rush Propst listed as head coach. 

Colquitt aint losing to Trinity Christian at home.   TCA has been overrated for a little while now.

[dntn31]

Updated to include PrepNation.

[MC Rockets]

8 minutes ago, dntn31 said:

Updated to include PrepNation.

I just messaged you. 

[dntn31]

16 minutes ago, MC Rockets said:

I just messaged you. 

Posting my response here for greater visibility

This is somewhat of an outlier week because even though some games have already been played (last week) most of the major polls haven't released their first official rankings yet (only preseason rankings). USAToday, PrepForce and Maxpreps have not released updated rankings this week (they were all released prior to last week's games) and PrepNation just released their "Preseason" poll today (these are all the human-based polls). The algorithm polls work a bit differently as they are constantly updating their rankings based on new data input (i.e., game results). So Miami Central has moved up in the CalPreps poll since CalPreps' initial Preseason rankings. HSFBA hasn't released any new rankings since their Preseason poll back in June, but their site works a bit differently as they manually post only the top 100 teams as a result of their algorithm as opposed to publishing the entire results of their algorithm to their site like CalPreps and Massey.

In order to create a compilation poll you need all of the data points that represent roughly the same point in time. This gets a bit tricky with preseason polls because not all of the polls release their preseason rankings at the same time (the biggest example is PrepNation releasing theirs after games have already been played). Since only CalPreps and Massey have updated rankings following last week's games, I'm going to base the Preseason comp poll on the CalPreps and Massey preseason rankings snapshots that I pulled from their sites in early August and not on the rankings you see on their site now. Next week, all 7 of the polls should release new rankings and the first official week of the comp poll will reflect those rankings. Since we only have non-preseason rankings from 2 of the 7 polls this week, I'm going to skip those for the sake of consistency.

[golfaddict1]

https://www.heraldtribune.com/sports/20190822/high-school-football-rematch-img-academy-vs-venice--friday-night

Interesting rematch tonight.   

[Wosinc]

On 8/20/2019 at 12:43 PM, AztecPadre said:

But I thought KOC's in FL are real games minus it actually counting on the record? That's what we have been getting told here.

Depends on what they prefer to call them. 😜

[dntn31]

The comp poll is updated, but as usual Jamie at PrepNation is dragging his feet... 😞