USC knocks off #10 Utah

[RedZone]

LSU will basically have to beat Alabama, Auburn, Florida and possibly Georgia to get in.

It's not an easy grind.

[concha]

25 minutes ago, steeler01 said:

No chance the teams in BOLD

 

One loss Notre Dame could get in if Georgia goes undefeated. 

 

I agree with Ohio State being a lock. Their schedule is so favorable. Their only hurdle is MIchigan(Comes a week after playing Penn State at home), but Michigan's offense is super weak and even their defense isn't playing like years prior.

Incorrect. 

They play Wisconsin also. And Penn St, who is undefeated and looking better now after Pitt's win over UCF. 

 

[RedZone]

Wisconsin could kink the wire, if they pull off a win IN Columbus. Highly unlikely.

That said Wisconsin even has a better shot than any Pac-12 team.

[concha]

The following are likely in the CFP:

 

Clemson.

Any one-loss or undefeated SEC champ is a lock.

Another one-loss SEC team would be ahead of the Pac-12 winner (as long as loss is by a score or less and there are currently multiple candidates for this situation).

If Oklahoma wins out they would bump any Pac-12 team.

Any undefeated Big Ten champion would be ahead of the Pac-12, especially if it is named Ohio State or, after yesterday, Wisconsin.

Notre Dame would be ahead of any Pac-12 team as long as Georgia is the top (or maybe even #2) SEC team.

 

ESPN's after week four power rankings have the highest Pac-12 team as Oregon at #12.

The SEC has 5 teams ranked higher.

The Big 12 has 2.

The Big Ten has 2 plus Penn St and Iowa at #13 and #14.

[Pops]

2 hours ago, RedZone said:

It's really not too early.

You sorta have to be around the Top 10 to think about any playoffs, pops. Have you checked a poll this year? The Top 5-6 teams are pretty solid. 

Notre Dame and Utah both will drop out of the Top 10 and Texas will jump back in. One-loss Texas has a better shot than any Pac-12 team.

My guess?

Clemson-lock

Ohio State-lock

Oklahoma/Texas

Alabama/LSU/Georgia/Florida/Auburn

I just don't see a Pac-12 team in that scenario. 

 

 

 

Am certainly not saying they’re tracking but Stuff moves more than it looks like it will 

UW or Oregon winning out will at least make the discussion 

they’d need some help but people are going to lose that don’t look like it now 

[concha]

46 minutes ago, Pops said:

Am certainly not saying they’re tracking but Stuff moves more than it looks like it will 

UW or Oregon winning out will at least make the discussion 

they’d need some help but people are going to lose that don’t look like it now 

The following have arguably stronger paths to the CFP than any team in the Pac-12 if they win out or have just one loss:

 

Clemson

Alabama

LSU

Georgia

Auburn

Florida

Oklahoma

Maybe Texas (win Big 12)

Ohio State

Wisconsin

Penn St

Iowa

Perhaps ND

 

There are currently some other Power 5 undefeateds also, but I don't see those as having a snowball's chance, frankly.

 

[steeler01]

3 hours ago, concha said:

Incorrect. 

They play Wisconsin also. And Penn St, who is undefeated and looking better now after Pitt's win over UCF. 

 

They play Wisconsin at home.  While Wisconsin will be on the road for the second consecutive week. The week prior OSU faces a Northwestern team that's crap this year. 

 

Penn State isn't what they've been the last couple of years.  The QB is a huge liability for them and OSU gets them at home with the game prior being against Rutgers.

 

So Michigan is the toughest game because it's after PSU and on the road

[RedZone]

1 hour ago, Pops said:

they’d need some help

That's a sizable understatement.

The Pac-12 just doesn't have the juice hanging around the Top 10, pops..........the entire Top 10 would have to blow up.

Oregon may get back in the Top 10, but there are NO Pac-12 teams that can help the Duck on their schedule if they run it out.....they have the loss to Auburn too....

 

All these other Top 10 teams will be battling each other...

I agree there's a lot of football to be played though.

[concha]

5 minutes ago, steeler01 said:

They play Wisconsin at home.  While Wisconsin will be on the road for the second consecutive week. The week prior OSU faces a Northwestern team that's crap this year. 

Penn State isn't what they've been the last couple of years.  The QB is a huge liability for them and OSU gets them at home with the game prior being against Rutgers.

So Michigan is the toughest game because it's after PSU and on the road

 

So they play Wisco at the Shoe.  Wisconsin will be higher ranked than any Pac-12 school after this week, and deservedly so.  

Not sure how Clifford is a "huge liability".  They're 3-0 with him and he has zero INTs and has actually shown a bit of a run threat.

I'm just shaking my head and laughing at how Wisconsin can dismantle a Michigan team that was lucky not to lose to Army, yet Meatchicken remain the biggest threat to tOSU after beating Ohio State on the field just once since 2004? Be serious.

[181pl]

Way too early to worry about. Virtually any team, including 1 loss power 5 teams, can get in. Too much football left. 

[RedZone]

The last time Badger won in Columbus was 15 years ago (2004)....only been 5 games played in that span though.

2004 Ohio St wasn't great (8-4)

Badger may hang around in Columbus, but they will lose....

[steeler01]

37 minutes ago, concha said:

 

So they play Wisco at the Shoe.  Wisconsin will be higher ranked than any Pac-12 school after this week, and deservedly so.  

Not sure how Clifford is a "huge liability".  They're 3-0 with him and he has zero INTs and has actually shown a bit of a run threat.

I'm just shaking my head and laughing at how Wisconsin can dismantle a Michigan team that was lucky not to lose to Army, yet Meatchicken remain the biggest threat to tOSU after beating Ohio State on the field just once since 2004? Be serious.

Who said anything about a Pac 12 school?

 

3-0 against Buffalo,  Idaho and Pittsburgh. 

 

Against the only Power 5 school here's his stats 

 

14-30(less than 50 percent)222 yards 0 TDs 0 Ints. I watched this game. Clifford was their weakness. The defense allowed 10 points, that's why they won. They won't give up 10 points on the road to OSU and Clifford will be forced to throw.  The game line will probably be -13 to -15

[Pops]

1 hour ago, concha said:

The following have arguably stronger paths to the CFP than any team in the Pac-12 if they win out or have just one loss:

 

Clemson

Alabama

LSU

Georgia

Auburn

Florida

Oklahoma

Maybe Texas (win Big 12)

Ohio State

Wisconsin

Penn St

Iowa

Perhaps ND

 

There are currently some other Power 5 undefeateds also, but I don't see those as having a snowball's chance, frankly.

 

I'm not saying the Pac5 is odds on to get a team in -- they've shit the bed a bit

I'm just saying it's a bit too early to be ruling out a Pac5 champ, whose only loss might be either:

• A 1 point loss to a team currently 4-0 w/ an SEC road win, in a game that concluded at 1:30a local time after a near 3-hour delay cleared the stadium
• A last minute loss to a current SEC top 10 team at a neutral site in the south, in a game they appeared to be in control of

Both in first couple of weeks of season

Lots of the above are going to eliminate each other (you've got 4 Big 10 teams and 5 SEC teams -- 6 or 7 of those teams won't make it.  There won't be 2 Big 12 teams.  I think the hypothetical Pac12 team can make a case if Clemson loses late (ie ACC championship) or, unlikely, ACC won't get a team if Clemson has 2 losses.  ND certainly can't afford another loss.

I wouldn't bet on it, but if you gave me 10 to 1, I'd got the bank for a withdrawal -- I think it's something around 25%

[Pops]

1 hour ago, 181pl said:

Way too early to worry about. Virtually any team, including 1 loss power 5 teams, can get in. Too much football left. 

exactly

[concha]

1 hour ago, steeler01 said:

Who said anything about a Pac 12 school?

3-0 against Buffalo,  Idaho and Pittsburgh. 

Against the only Power 5 school here's his stats 

14-30(less than 50 percent)222 yards 0 TDs 0 Ints. I watched this game. Clifford was their weakness. The defense allowed 10 points, that's why they won. They won't give up 10 points on the road to OSU and Clifford will be forced to throw.  The game line will probably be -13 to -15

 

The thread is about the Pac-12. So everybody but you?

 

Clifford apparently spent much of the game against Pitt under lots of pressure. Per ESPN:

Sean Clifford completed 14 of 30 passes for 222 yards while spending most of the afternoon under heavy duress.

"He's a winner," Penn State tight end Pat Freiermuth said of Clifford. "Our whole team knew he's a winner from the start. We could tell in camp. He's not going to go down easy. You can keep hitting him, but he's going to keep getting back up."

Clifford is not the weakness.  If there is a weakness it is the RBs and/or the o-line.

Nevertheless, Penn State and Clifford are viewed as so weak that they hold an FPI rank of #14.  

 

Your assertion that Michigan is the biggest threat to Ohio State when Penn St and Wisconsin are on the schedule is just silly.

.

 

 

[concha]

36 minutes ago, Pops said:

 

Lots of the above are going to eliminate each other (you've got 4 Big 10 teams and 5 SEC teams -- 6 or 7 of those teams won't make it.  There won't be 2 Big 12 teams.  I think the hypothetical Pac12 team can make a case if Clemson loses late (ie ACC championship) or, unlikely, ACC won't get a team if Clemson has 2 losses.  ND certainly can't afford another loss.

 

 

This is the point.  Of course not all those teams can make it.  But the Pac-12 has to see most of these lose at least one if not two games.

Oklahoma is unlikely to lose.  Clemson losing would be a minor miracle.  That there will likely be at least two SEC teams with stronger arguments than the Pac-12 champions is just about guaranteed. There will likely be an undefeated Big Ten champion, and even if that doesn't happen you'd likely have something like two one loss Big Ten teams with arguments (ex. Wisconsin and Ohio State beat each other). And ND could be there too.

.

[steeler01]

13 minutes ago, concha said:

 

The thread is about the Pac-12. So everybody but you?

 

Clifford apparently spent much of the game against Pitt under lots of pressure. Per ESPN:

Sean Clifford completed 14 of 30 passes for 222 yards while spending most of the afternoon under heavy duress.

"He's a winner," Penn State tight end Pat Freiermuth said of Clifford. "Our whole team knew he's a winner from the start. We could tell in camp. He's not going to go down easy. You can keep hitting him, but he's going to keep getting back up."

Clifford is not the weakness.  If there is a weakness it is the RBs and/or the o-line.

Nevertheless, Penn State and Clifford are viewed as so weak that they hold an FPI rank of #14.  

 

Your assertion that Michigan is the biggest threat to Ohio State when Penn St and Wisconsin are on the schedule is just silly.

.

 

 

The thread is about USC beating Utah. 

 

You quoted me saying Ohio state is a lock. 

 

A teammate isn't gonna bad mouth their QB before the season 

 

It's silly if you look at it from a ranking view.  It's not if you understand college football spots

[concha]

13 minutes ago, steeler01 said:

The thread is about USC beating Utah. 

You quoted me saying Ohio state is a lock. 

A teammate isn't gonna bad mouth their QB before the season 

It's silly if you look at it from a ranking view.  It's not if you understand college football spots

1) Which is Pac-12 and as it included Utah was directly relevant to the Pac-12s now nearly non-existent chances at the CFP.

2) Ohio State is not a lock.  They have a great chance, but Wisconsin looks like the real deal and is a real threat.

3)  Of course not, but Sean Clifford being - and I quote - "under duress" was not from a teammate and unless Clifford spent his time fleeing from his own protection, the weakness was not him. It was o-line and lack of running game.  I watched some of that game also.

4) It's silly period.  Michigan has beaten OSU once since 2004.  They were taken to OT by Army.  Wisconsin buttered their buns and treated the Wolverines like the new pretty boy at the state penitentiary. Wisconsin is a galactically greater threat at this point.  Penn St is more of a threat and, given their defense, Sparty is too.

Hell, unless there is a serious turnaround, Michigan could have several losses prior to facing Ohio State. Iowa, Penn St, ND, Sparty... maybe even Indiana if Peyton Ramsey is on his game.

[steeler01]

Just now, concha said:

1) Which is Pac-12 and as it included Utah was directly relevant to the Pac-12s now nearly non-existent chances at the CFP.

2) Ohio is not a lock.  They have a great chance, but Wisconsin looks like the real deal and is a real threat.

3)  Of course not, but Sean Clifford being - and I quote - "under duress" was not from a teammate and unless Clifford spent his time fleeing from his own protection, the weakness was not him. It was o-line and lack of running game.  I watched some of that game also.

4) It's silly period.  Michigan has beaten OSU once since 2004.  They were taken to OT by Army.  Wisconsin buttered their buns and treated the Wolverines like the new pretty boy at the state penitentiary. Wisconsin is a galactically greater threat at this point.  Penn St is more of a threat and, given their defense, Sparty is too.

Hell, unless there is a serious turnaround, Michigan could have several losses prior to facing Ohio State. Iowa, Penn St, ND, Sparty... maybe even Indiana if Peyton Ramsey is on his game.

I'll bet Michigan gives OSU a closer game then PSU or Wisconsin. Name a wager

[concha]

1 minute ago, steeler01 said:

I'll bet Michigan gives OSU a closer game then PSU or Wisconsin. Name a wager

No. And I think you are wrong.

Is you wanting to put money on it supposed to create an argument where you really had none?

.

 

[steeler01]

26 minutes ago, concha said:

No. And I think you are wrong.

Is you wanting to put money on it supposed to create an argument where you really had none?

.

 

You believe in something,  I believe in the opposite.  Im willing to wager on it. That's it

[concha]

3 minutes ago, steeler01 said:

You believe in something,  I believe in the opposite.  Im willing to wager on it. That's it

 

Given what happened against Army and yesterday (and, btw, Duke beat Middle Tennessee much more decisively), how in the world do you think Michigan will be a greater threat than Wisconsin?

I'm fascinated by this.

Simple home field advantage?

Wisconsin has a Heisman caliber RB.  This is a guy who is going to finish his career amongst the all-time best. Michigan has... who again?  Wisconsin's QB performance this year is enormously better than Michigan's. Wisconsin's o-line is amongst the best in the FBS. Their defense has given up 14 points this season, all to Michigan and all after the game was long over.  Wisconsin simply manhandled Michigan.  There is no Devin Bush or Rashan Gary or Chase Winovich on this year's Michigan team.

Is this just the faith of a dedicated fan?

[steeler01]

7 minutes ago, concha said:

 

Given what happened against Army and yesterday (and, btw, Duke beat Middle Tennessee much more decisively), how in the world do you think Michigan will be a greater threat than Wisconsin?

I'm fascinated by this.

Simple home field advantage?

Wisconsin has a Heisman caliber RB.  This is a guy who is going to finish his career amongst the all-time best. Michigan has... who again?  Wisconsin's QB performance this year is enormously better than Michigan's. Wisconsin's o-line is amongst the best in the FBS. Their defense has given up 14 points this season, all to Michigan and all after the game was long over.  Wisconsin simply manhandled Michigan.  There is no Devin Bush or Rashan Gary or Chase Winovich on this year's Michigan team.

Is this just the faith of a dedicated fan?

I'm a USC fan

 

My brother is the Michigan Alumni/ Cheerleader

 

I already explained it.  Michigan is at home after OSU plays Penn State. 

 

Wisconsin is a home game after a Friday game with Northwestern(If Northwestern was as good as last year. Northwestern would be my upset pick)

 

This will be the second consecutive week that Wisconsin will be on the road

[concha]

1 minute ago, steeler01 said:

I'm a USC fan

 

My brother is the Michigan Alumni/ Cheerleader

 

I already explained it.  Michigan is at home after OSU plays Penn State. 

 

Wisconsin is a home game after a Friday game with Northwestern(If Northwestern was as good as last year. Northwestern would be my upset pick)

 

This will be the second consecutive week that Wisconsin will be on the road

 

OK...  

I thought Penn St was no big deal with a weak QB. So, not tough on OSU?

Wisconsin is indeed a home game for the Buckeyes. It's also a much stronger team than Michigan this year in basically every respect. Proven decisively on the field.

And the first of the two road games for Wisco will be a beatdown of godawful Illinois. That's hardly a physically and emotionally draining experience before heading to Columbus.

[steeler01]

9 minutes ago, concha said:

 

OK...  

I thought Penn St was no big deal with a weak QB. So, not tough on OSU?

Wisconsin is indeed a home game for the Buckeyes. It's also a much stronger team than Michigan this year in basically every respect. Proven decisively on the field.

And the first of the two road games for Wisco will be a beatdown of godawful Illinois. That's hardly a physically and emotionally draining experience before heading to Columbus.

It's not going to be a big deal score wise, but the kids will be up for that game.  Then they'll hear how they'll drill Michigan all week long afterwards.  It'll be really really tough after the beat down of PSU to get the kids excited for Michigan with the Big 10 Championship afterwards

 

It's still a back to back for Wisconsin. Which means less time to prepare and teams almost always perform poorly in that spot.  Add to the fact that Wisconsin doesn't beat top OSU teams at the Horse Shoe