Small sample of teams in 2010 and Calpreps.

[954gator]

Now people, don't get all angry/defensive, but I wanted to post a few teams and compare their Calpreps rankings in 2010.   Post your thoughts below.

 

We'll start with Miami Central Fl(14-1)  state rank 3  national rank 15

Wins:  MNW twice, Pratville AL, BTW, Cypress Bay, South Dade, Dr. Phillips

Losses: Camden County 45-42

 

Camden County Ga(10-2)   state rank 38   national rank 847

Wins:  Miami Central, Coffee County, some other Ga teams etc

Losses:  STA 28-42, Hillgrove 26-28

 

Desoto Tx(11-3)   state rank 13  national rank 78

Wins: Miramar 42-41 OT,  Skyline, Bowie (2 times), Horn, North Mesquite

Losses:   Stony pointe (2 times),  Longview  35-38

 

Miramar Fl(8-4)   state rank 51   national rank 449

Wins:  Boyd Anderson, Dillard, Deerfield Beach, other local comp.

Losses:  Desoto in OT, Hallandale 28-30, STA 7-23, Northeast 12-21

 

My thoughts, Camden County is ranked 800+ spots lower than MC.  If they'd have lost 4-5 games maybe this would make more sense, but they lost to STA 28-42, and then a 26-28 nail biter in the playoffs.   There's just no way I can justify an 800+ ranking difference.  

With Miramar, their first game of the season they travel to Texas and play Desoto.   Desoto had 2 games under their belt and playing in their home state.  After getting up 21-7, Miramar rallied back to tie the game to a 35-35 end of regulation score.   Desoto scores and goes up 42-35.  Miramar scores a TD to follow up, but goes for 2 and the WR catches the ball just out of bounds behind the endzone.   Desoto wins 42-41.    Miramar, I'm assuming is ranked way lower because Miramar's SOS I guess wasn't ranked as high as Desoto's.   You can argue this, but either way is Desoto justified to be ranked almost 400 spots higher than Miramar?  I'd say no way.   

Anyways, what are your thoughts on these rankings?  Why are they so lopsided?  I mean if you take STA out of the equation for both Miramar and Camden (probably STA's second best team ever), both Camden and Miramar would have the same amount of losses as the teams I'm comparing them to.   I mean STA would likely have beaten Central and Desoto that year as well right?

[954gator]

Another team to add to that in 2010...

Woodland Hills Pa (9-4)   state rank 10  national rank  296

Wins:  North Hills (split), Penn Hills, Pine Richland,  Mt Lebanon

Losses:  Manatee Fl 16-39 (in PA), North Hills (split), PCC 7-24,  North Allegheny 14-21

Why so high in comparison to Miramar and Camden?  Shoot STA beat Manatee worse than they did Camden and Miramar.  I'll add Manatee (13-1)  State rank 9  national rank 75.  STA beat Manatee 31-7. 

[FootballGuy]

I think CalPreps took Camden's loss to Hillgrove to heart. That would probably explain the very low national ranking. 

[AztecPadre]

You are so ECHS.  I have little doubt now. 

[954gator]

Just now, AztecPadre said:

You are so ECHS.  I have little doubt now. 

ECHS is bit more hostile than I am, and I disagree with a lot of what he says.   Plus I'd rather be discussing football in the offseason over BS racial crap (that ultimately keeps more people not wanting to post here).   Plus, If I were ECHS, I would have found a way  to take some sort of pot shot at Cali or the BNU ;).

[AztecPadre]

6 minutes ago, 954gator said:

ECHS is bit more hostile than I am, and I disagree with a lot of what he says.   Plus I'd rather be discussing football in the offseason over BS racial crap (that ultimately keeps more people not wanting to post here).   Plus, If I were ECHS, I would have found a way  to take some sort of pot shot at Cali or the BNU ;).

Agreed!

[Pops]

25 minutes ago, 954gator said:

ECHS is bit more hostile than I am, and I disagree with a lot of what he says.   Plus I'd rather be discussing football in the offseason over BS racial crap (that ultimately keeps more people not wanting to post here).   Plus, If I were ECHS, I would have found a way  to take some sort of pot shot at Cali or the BNU ;).

Give me 2 teams and I'll try to provide an answer

am just not going to check all your comparisons, but there's usually an explanation that's obvious on a side by side

[954gator]

30 minutes ago, FootballGuy said:

I think CalPreps took Camden's loss to Hillgrove to heart. That would probably explain the very low national ranking. 

I don't doubt that at all, but is it really justified?   Hillgrove went on to lose in the next round to the eventual Ga state champ in a competitive game.  Brookwood beat HG 45-35.   Brookwood also beat Colquitt for comparison in the finals 52-38.   

[954gator]

3 minutes ago, Pops said:

Give me 2 teams and I'll try to provide an answer

am just not going to check all your comparisons, but there's usually an explanation that's obvious on a side by side

All these teams I provided have some sort of connection, if you want to just look at 2 of them fine, but you get a better picture looking at how they all compare and rank.  I'll save you the trouble and say that SOS is going to be considerably different according to calpreps for all these teams.  Does that really make a difference though?

For example, if East last year would have payed and lost to Bingham, so both DLS and East ended up with 1 loss.  Would DLS be justified to be ranked higher because their SOS is rated higher?  Even though they lost to them?

[Pops]

4 minutes ago, 954gator said:

All these teams I provided have some sort of connection, if you want to just look at 2 of them fine, but you get a better picture looking at how they all compare and rank.  

Maybe maybe not

your # of connections grows exponentially as # teams grow linearly 

I can provide an explanation to any 2 teams in list but don't want to take time and it would be confusing in any event to try to tie all together

For example, DLS won CP that year (and Massey) and people have asked why not Ed's because their SOS was better -- the answer here is Eds vs DLS's MOV in key games was a larger gap in favor of DLS than Ed's SOS was in their favor 

your questions provide partial info so if you want a quality answer, narrow your ditches 

[noonereal]

1 hour ago, 954gator said:

Now people, don't get all angry/defensive, but I wanted to post a few teams and compare their Calpreps rankings in 2010.   Post your thoughts below.

 

We'll start with Miami Central Fl(14-1)  state rank 3  national rank 15

Wins:  MNW twice, Pratville AL, BTW, Cypress Bay, South Dade, Dr. Phillips

Losses: Camden County 45-42

 

Camden County Ga(10-2)   state rank 38   national rank 847

Wins:  Miami Central, Coffee County, some other Ga teams etc

Losses:  STA 28-42, Hillgrove 26-28

 

Desoto Tx(11-3)   state rank 13  national rank 78

Wins: Miramar 42-41 OT,  Skyline, Bowie (2 times), Horn, North Mesquite

Losses:   Stony pointe (2 times),  Longview  35-38

 

Miramar Fl(8-4)   state rank 51   national rank 449

Wins:  Boyd Anderson, Dillard, Deerfield Beach, other local comp.

Losses:  Desoto in OT, Hallandale 28-30, STA 7-23, Northeast 12-21

 

My thoughts, Camden County is ranked 800+ spots lower than MC.  If they'd have lost 4-5 games maybe this would make more sense, but they lost to STA 28-42, and then a 26-28 nail biter in the playoffs.   There's just no way I can justify an 800+ ranking difference.  

With Miramar, their first game of the season they travel to Texas and play Desoto.   Desoto had 2 games under their belt and playing in their home state.  After getting up 21-7, Miramar rallied back to tie the game to a 35-35 end of regulation score.   Desoto scores and goes up 42-35.  Miramar scores a TD to follow up, but goes for 2 and the WR catches the ball just out of bounds behind the endzone.   Desoto wins 42-41.    Miramar, I'm assuming is ranked way lower because Miramar's SOS I guess wasn't ranked as high as Desoto's.   You can argue this, but either way is Desoto justified to be ranked almost 400 spots higher than Miramar?  I'd say no way.   

Anyways, what are your thoughts on these rankings?  Why are they so lopsided?  I mean if you take STA out of the equation for both Miramar and Camden (probably STA's second best team ever), both Camden and Miramar would have the same amount of losses as the teams I'm comparing them to.   I mean STA would likely have beaten Central and Desoto that year as well right?

this is a sample of 4 out of 16,000. 

Right there we see it may not be representative.

Now if I submit 4 that we all agree make sense, where doews that leave us? 

The same place. You can't say because this and his don't make sense "to me" that the model is not good. Especially when humans and Cal agree 75% of the time. 

Knowing what I know of how human perceive things and how bias is always present in humans, I'd say the 25% the humans and Cal disagree on is more likely correct in Cal. 

[954gator]

Neither You nor Pops are actually discussing the info, only that the info isn't enough.  That's ok, and the truth is the info will never be enough as far as OOS.     

[954gator]

Justifying the rankings I posted and justifying Calpreps as a whole are two completely different things as well. 

[noonereal]

2 minutes ago, 954gator said:

Neither You nor Pops are actually discussing the info, only that the info isn't enough.  That's ok, and the truth is the info will never be enough as far as OOS.     

please reread my post

you are sincere, not like Opie, you may well "get it" one day

[Columbiafan]

Calpreps rankings are questionable, but i do like the matchup feature

 

Just like maxpreps have questionable rankings but it's only place i can get full rankings in every state 

 

Also i do notice sometimes if a team starts low in the rankings they don't jump as high as they would if they started high and if they start high they don't drop as much with a loss then ones further down list even if it same margin and oppenent

[954gator]

Just now, noonereal said:

please reread my post

you are sincere, not like Opie, you may well "get it" one day

I mean I get what you are saying, but there are only a limited amount of connections between OOS teams.    How many total Fl teams played Texas that year?  Or how many Fl teams played PA, or GA playing FL, etc etc.   Not that many.   

Miami Central beat some Texas team that year by like 40...is it relevant...not really because that team wasn't good.     Cocoa beat Abeline that year, and Abeline beat Plant...not really relevant except that they split.    Glades Central lost to Skyline that year also 0-6, but that's not that relevant in this discussion, because both STA and Desoto killed Skyline.   I'm not sure of any other PA v FL matchups that year.  

99% of these teams only play their own state.    

[FootballGuy]

8 minutes ago, 954gator said:

I don't doubt that at all, but is it really justified?   Hillgrove went on to lose in the next round to the eventual Ga state champ in a competitive game.  Brookwood beat HG 45-35.   Brookwood also beat Colquitt for comparison in the finals 52-38.   

Yeah I don't see why Camden was disrespected like that in the rankings. I'd understand Camden's ranking if they had lost to MIami Central, Aquinas, and Hillgrove, but they DID beat Miami Central, played in a competitive game against aquinas, and lost a hard fought battle to a team that won state that year. It's crazy..

[CCBlackhatter]

10 minutes ago, FootballGuy said:

Yeah I don't see why Camden was disrespected like that in the rankings. I'd understand Camden's ranking if they had lost to MIami Central, Aquinas, and Hillgrove, but they DID beat Miami Central, played in a competitive game against aquinas, and lost a hard fought battle to a team that won state that year. It's crazy..

Hillgrove did not win state.

[FootballGuy]

6 minutes ago, CCBlackhatter said:

Hillgrove did not win state.

Correction: I meant to say they lost to a team that lost to the state champion.

[TheMaximumHornetSting]

Camden at 847 in 2010 and 38 in state? 

Wtf! 

Hold up. 

Nor you cant tell me CP is right after that BS.... 

I refuse to believe it. 

That Hillgrove team was loaded. They had 3 future Alabama players and NFL draftees on that team.  

And several other D1 athletes. 

Camden was easily top 150 that year. 

 

[ECHS05]

Yeah Im sure Camden was 847 in the nation having beat MC and gave #1/#2 STA all they wanted for 3 quarters before losing 42-28.

[ECHS05]

2 hours ago, Pops said:

Give me 2 teams and I'll try to provide an answer

am just not going to check all your comparisons, but there's usually an explanation that's obvious on a side by side

No theres not. Not at the national level.

[ECHS05]

2 hours ago, noonereal said:

please reread my post

you are sincere, not like Opie, you may well "get it" one day

There is nothing to get beyond this.

There is nothing connecting these states outside of a VERY small amount of OOS games vs, on average, 6-7 other states that are in your own region.

If there is no data connecting these states. A numerical comparison cannot be made as there could be a completely different level of football being played in 1 state to another, and youd never know it bc CalPreps cant show it outside of Neds Starting Points for these teams, and by way of that, states.

[ECHS05]

2 hours ago, noonereal said:

this is a sample of 4 out of 16,000. 

Right there we see it may not be representative.

Now if I submit 4 that we all agree make sense, where doews that leave us? 

The same place. You can't say because this and his don't make sense "to me" that the model is not good. Especially when humans and Cal agree 75% of the time. 

Knowing what I know of how human perceive things and how bias is always present in humans, I'd say the 25% the humans and Cal disagree on is more likely correct in Cal. 

There are naturally going to be some close.

But this is not a good national model. And you can SAY it is (words without reason mean nothing) , but you dont even know the reason why. You are just saying it.

Nothing connects these states... AND NED SAYS HIMSELF... When there is no connecting data a true comparison cant be made.

Here --- there's absolutely no way to say whether a team rated a 21 in 2016 is better or worse than a team rated a 19 in 2005, mainly because (needless to say!) no teams from 2016 have played any teams from 2005

This 100% applies to differing states.  No teams from Georgia played any teams from Oregon this year. So theres no way to tell if Georgias scale was up or down in comparison to Oregons. Now... use that on a national scale and you have chaos.

The ONLY reason the best teams show up at the top, is bc they are at the top of their state and they are naturally going to do that anyway. BUT THERES NOTHING RATING THESE TEAMS N-A-T-I-O-N-A-L-L-Y , ONLY vs the teams they play.

 

[ECHS05]

Now NOR or Pops will do what they always do, deflect from the actual point I made.