The Stock Market

[HSFBfan]

Just now, DarterBlue said:

It is not going to be sustained if the number of cases keep skyrocketing. That's why the market is showing some weakness. I don't know at this stage whether the bulls or the bears end up winning. Clearly if we go into de facto or de jure shutdown again, consumer spending is going to contract big time.  

Well not necessarily. If people continue to collect checks from rhe government they have cash on hand and they will spend it. Were a spending culture and the next check is supposed to be bigger than the last one

I can almost see trump going down the road the democrays want. 2000 a month until a certain plateau of jobs is met 

[HSFBfan]

https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2020-06-25/promising-results-mean-coronavirus-vaccine-trial-could-start-by-august

[HSFBfan]

American airlines full flights next week

Buy buy buy

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.usnews.com/news/business/articles/2020-06-26/american-booking-full-flights-next-week-big-lots-still-busy%3fcontext=amp

[HSFBfan]

@DarterBlue

Microsoft was planning on replacing people weeks ago

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/amp/world-us-canada-52860247

[HSFBfan]

39 minutes ago, DarterBlue said:

That's not good at all. Permanent closing that will cost jobs. Less jobs equals less spending. Microsoft will be okay as they are large and relatively diversified. But this is not good for the economy. 

https://news.microsoft.com/2020/06/26/microsoft-store-announces-new-approach-to-retail/

[HSFBfan]

https://www.aier.org/article/again-what-were-the-benefits-of-locking-down/

[DarterBlue]

5 hours ago, DarterBlue said:

Another Bad Day: For a second day this week, the stock market is getting hammered. In some respects, today is worse than Wednesday, but in others it is better. The clear reason for the weakness is the market's slow realization that Covid-19 is not only here for for at least the intermediate term, but that it may well force the de facto shutdown of several states that are being hard hit. Assuming this happens (it is likely in Texas, Arizona, Florida and California, and a few other states), the economic recovery the market had staked its wager on, may be delayed by at least months. 

This could have been avoided. Had we taken the time to ramp up testing, done serious contact tracing, and imposed strict isolation rules for exposed people, we could have reopened without the virus exploding. Alas, we did not. So, this failure on the part of our government, coupled with mass demonstrations, and, sadly, the President himself setting a horrible example, has now guaranteed that this will be a summer of discontent. Whether the market can hold tough and not rollover again is the big question. On the one side, we have a horrible health and social backdrop, and on the other, super favorable monetary conditions. This could get very interesting ... to be continued. 

The DOW is currently right at support, trying to bounce off its 50-day moving average. On the other side, the stronger NASDAQ just sliced through its shorter, 21-day moving average, but it is still well above its rising 50-day. 

Stocks closed at or very close to day lows. Technically, we could be in worse shape, given the extent of the selling on Wednesday and today. However, it is clear that the dreaded Covid-19 virus has once again come to the forefront. The market is once again at a critical juncture. Detailed thoughts and comments will follow later this evening.  

[HSFBfan]

5 minutes ago, DarterBlue said:

Stocks closed at or very close to day lows. Technically, we could be in worse shape, given the extent of the selling on Wednesday and today. However, it is clear that the dreaded Covid-19 virus has once again come to the forefront. The market is once again at a critical juncture. Detailed thoughts and comments will follow later this evening.  

Yep. Investors are in panic mode. I bought American airlines today around 12. If they are going to go full planes next week the revenue should come back 

[DarterBlue]

22 minutes ago, HSFBfan said:

Yep. Investors are in panic mode. I bought American airlines today around 12. If they are going to go full planes next week the revenue should come back 

Here is the problem. People will not travel extensively under current Covid-19 conditions. So, AAL, will be flying a lot of empty planes. That is reflected in the price action of: LUV, DAL, UAL, SAVE, and JBLU in addition to AAL. Even if AAL works out eventually (and it certainly may be a good investment here), I would be very surprised if you make money on this one over the next two weeks. 

There is just too much uncertainty afoot now for the Hotels, Airlines, Cruise Ships, and the like to have much traction here. All the economic green shoots we have been seeing, may well wither away. I say this not to be political, but as a matter of an old, former economist/finance guy who in his golden years happens to continue trading the markets. 

[HSFBfan]

21 minutes ago, DarterBlue said:

Here is the problem. People will not travel extensively under current Covid-19 conditions. So, AAL, will be flying a lot of empty planes. That is reflected in the price action of: LUV, DAL, UAL, SAVE, and JBLU in addition to AAL. Even if AAL works out eventually (and it certainly may be a good investment here), I would be very surprised if you make money on this one over the next two weeks. 

There is just too much uncertainty afoot now for the Hotels, Airlines, Cruise Ships, and the like to have much traction here. All the economic green shoots we have been seeing, may well wither away. I say this not to be political, but as a matter of an old, former economist/finance guy who in his golden years happens to continue trading the markets. 

I agree qith u. Its a risky play with hopefully plenty of upside. I put in a very small play. So if I make lets say 100 bucks ill double and move on. That's how small of a play I'm jn for 

[imaGoodBoyNow]

23 minutes ago, DarterBlue said:

Here is the problem. People will not travel extensively under current Covid-19 conditions. So, AAL, will be flying a lot of empty planes. That is reflected in the price action of: LUV, DAL, UAL, SAVE, and JBLU in addition to AAL. Even if AAL works out eventually (and it certainly may be a good investment here), I would be very surprised if you make money on this one over the next two weeks. 

There is just too much uncertainty afoot now for the Hotels, Airlines, Cruise Ships, and the like to have much traction here. All the economic green shoots we have been seeing, may well wither away. I say this not to be political, but as a matter of an old, former economist/finance guy who in his golden years happens to continue trading the markets. 

At this point I feel like the only thing way for the economy to recover is a vaccine so the big question is which company is it going to be

[DarterBlue]

2 minutes ago, imaGoodBoyNow said:

At this point I feel like the only thing way for the economy to recover is a vaccine so the big question is which company is it going to be

Well over a dozen companies are making a serious effort in the USA plus several companies abroad. Without a knowledgeable person on the inside, it is impossible to say which one it will be. One possible gamble would be to buy call options expiring next year January on a bunch of the companies. Of course most would expire worthless. But the one winner would probably pay for all the losses with profits to spare. 

[HSFBfan]

8 minutes ago, imaGoodBoyNow said:

At this point I feel like the only thing way for the economy to recover is a vaccine so the big question is which company is it going to be

Only will impact a percentage of the population as a percentage of people will never get the vaccine 

[imaGoodBoyNow]

13 minutes ago, DarterBlue said:

Well over a dozen companies are making a serious effort in the USA plus several companies abroad. Without a knowledgeable person on the inside, it is impossible to say which one it will be. One possible gamble would be to buy call options expiring next year January on a bunch of the companies. Of course most would expire worthless. But the one winner would probably pay for all the losses with profits to spare. 

Okay Pfizer it is

[HSFBfan]

9 minutes ago, GardenStateBaller said:

And yet she won with 70% of thr vote 

When ur on welfare what do u have to lose for voting democrat

[DarterBlue]

1 hour ago, GardenStateBaller said:

She's not that stupid!

[imaGoodBoyNow]

@DarterBlue

 

this should be big for Nikola and any companies driving  in Calihttps://www.yahoo.com/news/california-shakes-auto-industry-says-180026843.html

[DarterBlue]

1 hour ago, imaGoodBoyNow said:

@DarterBlue

 

this should be big for Nikola and any companies driving  in Calihttps://www.yahoo.com/news/california-shakes-auto-industry-says-180026843.html

If Nikola can actually develop a viable product, it is the future of the industry and they will be a huge winner. The risk is that management is not able to or another company, existing or startup, builds a better mouse trap. 

[HSFBfan]

13 minutes ago, DarterBlue said:

She's not that stupid!

Yeah she is. But the new generation of NYers is as dumb as she is 

[DarterBlue]

Stocks closed broadly lower on much higher volume today. From the get go they were weak. Things only got worse, for the most part, during the day. To cap off a bad day, the averages closed at or near day lows. At the close, the range was from a loss of 1.98% on the MID Cap index, to 2.84% on the DOW. Breadth was a negative 4.5-1 on the NYSE to 3.6-1 on the NASDAQ. There were many things bad about today. First, the selloff, like Wednesday’s was on higher (this time much higher) volume. Second, the averages finished at or near day lows. Third, for the third time the two NASDAQ indices failed to keep above the 10,000 level. Fourth, the selling although severe, was not climactic. Fifth, this marks the third really bad day, in the past two weeks and a day. Note that a series of bad days often forewarn of a change in the market’s direction. Sixth, the social, and economic backdrop, coupled with and partially caused by, a resurgence of Covid-19, became more troubling as the week unfolded. These are a lot of negatives. However, there were positives in the midst of all these negatives. First, monetary conditions have been and continue to be, very accommodative. I am sure if the weakness persists, we will hear more noise from the Fed reminding of its commitment to keep supporting the markets. Second, the new weakness may herald the passing of another round of stimulus, which the Republicans have been reluctant to do. More money doled out, in the short run, keeps the economy afloat and will provide support for the market. Third, and perhaps most importantly, although it was a very bad day, many of the market leaders, technology growth companies, remained strong today, only grudgingly giving up ground, and in a few instances actually closing higher. Clearly, the big money has not thrown in the towel on leadership just yet. Fourth, and finally, although the DOW did close below its fifty-day moving average, and the NASDAQ closed below its 21-day moving average, the S&P held above its 50-day, and the two NASDAQ indices are well above their rising 50-day averages. So, where do things stand? Conditions are much worse today than they were on Tuesday. That goes without saying. With that said, the market has not rolled over yet and overbought conditions have rapidly moved to oversold conditions in a matter of days. Further, this is the first real test of the Covid-19 bull market that kicked off in early April. All big bull market moves must survive some degree of turbulence. So, with that said, I think this market deserves a bit more rope before we can safely conclude that this run is over. However, should we get another day like Wednesday or Friday, within the next four trading days, without a sharp intraday upside reversal, then I will be throwing in the towel, keeping perhaps only ZM but selling my other positions.

 On a personal note, I lost $9,595 or 1.72% today. While on the week, I lost only $3,314 or .55%. This ties right in with my third positive on the market in the prior paragraph. The fact that leadership has not broken down as of yet. I currently own: ZM, TTD, SHOP and TEAM, all of which would be considered leading stocks in the Covid-19 bull run. Thus, on the week several of these were actually up, with TEAM actually finishing up today. These, leaders, however, were offset by big losses in: The S&P September Calls, the MDY (Mid Cap ETF), and LCII which tanked today. Also, off to a losing start were the NKLA Leap Call Options. As mentioned in the prior paragraph, another bad day akin to Wednesday or Friday or worse, will have me getting close to flat with only ZM not potentially up for sale. But, if we calm down or rally back strongly, I will stay put for now. If this bull market is real, we are sill in its early stages. And though I am convinced it will eventually end badly due to it being entirely Fed induced, there could be a lot more money to be made before it runs its course.

[imaGoodBoyNow]

@DarterBlue

 

dave and Buster calls for January are pretty cheap, what’s your opinion long term for them

[DarterBlue]

6 hours ago, imaGoodBoyNow said:

@DarterBlue

 

dave and Buster calls for January are pretty cheap, what’s your opinion long term for them

With Covid-19 skyrocketing, especially in the south and southwest, I would not touch this company and its stock. Just too much uncertainty around its ability to make money, unless their business model has totally changed since I last looked at it.   

But you asked long term. I don't know. January 2021 is not really long term, it's intermediate. Do you think we have a vaccine before then? What will the landscape be if we don't? It is clear now we are not even talking about a second wave. What we are seeing is a revival of the first. Personally, I think this company is way too risky. It could pan out, but if it does not have a lot of cash or access to the capital markets, it could go the way of Chucky Cheese. 

[DarterBlue]

@imaGoodBoyNowgiven what has happened with Covid-19 the past two weeks and how the market is responding, the only bullish positions on the long side I would consider buying now are: 1. Stay at home plays; 2. Possibly some drug company stocks. All other positions are extremely suspect now due to uncertainty. Does it mean they could not work? No: Anything can work. But it is about the probability that they do work. And that probability just got a lot lower. If you read my latest market post, I am one more bad day away from selling the majority of my positions. i like them all, but in a bad market both the good and the bad get taken out for the most part. 

[HSFBfan]

https://www.bizjournals.com/triad/news/2020/06/28/royal-caribbean-reveals-when-it-expects-to-resume.html

[imaGoodBoyNow]

8 hours ago, DarterBlue said:

@imaGoodBoyNowgiven what has happened with Covid-19 the past two weeks and how the market is responding, the only bullish positions on the long side I would consider buying now are: 1. Stay at home plays; 2. Possibly some drug company stocks. All other positions are extremely suspect now due to uncertainty. Does it mean they could not work? No: Anything can work. But it is about the probability that they do work. And that probability just got a lot lower. If you read my latest market post, I am one more bad day away from selling the majority of my positions. i like them all, but in a bad market both the good and the bad get taken out for the most part. 

I’m start looking at the online education stocks cause at this rate their won’t be school next year