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DarterBlue

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Stocks suffered a bearish reversal day today. What is a reversal day? It is one where the major averages open significantly higher (or lower) as the case may be, only to reverse in the opposite direction and close lower (or higher) as the case may be. To make the day worse, volume was higher indicating that big money was selling into the weakness. With the negative out of the way, by negative day standards it was not particularly severe. The losses in the major indices were relatively mild (less so on the two NASDAQ indices) and secondary stocks represented by the Russell 2000 and S&P Mid Cap index actually closed higher. In fact, in the face of weakness, these two indices actually closed convincingly above their declining 50-day moving averages for the first time in what seems like forever. Further, advancing stocks led 21-8 on the NYSE and 19-14 on the NASDAQ. The range today was from a loss of 1.81% on the NASDAQ 100 (big tech) to a gain of 1.26% on the Russell 2000 (small cap stocks). To me, for now, this feels like a consolidation of gains after a large runup rather than the end of this Covid rally.

 On the day, I got rid of LUV shortly after the open when early gains turned into losses. My selling prices ranged from a low of $28.39 to a high of $29.12. I took a loss of $7,314.50 on the 1,402 shares I had purchased. Obviously, that is not good, but my take was if it could not rally off its beaten down position on a loss which was $0.28 less than the Street consensus, it was going to have a hard time performing well over the next two months. Free from the burden of Darterblue’s ownership, the stock eventually righted itself and closed at $29.69.😁 Do I regret selling? The short answer is no. While I could have gotten a better exit price, the stock had not performed as I had expected and it was time to part ways. On the day I did badly overall, being down over $4k including the day’s loss attributable to LUV. With that said, I now have unrealized gains in TEAM and JD that approximate the realized loss on LUV. At this juncture, I am now down about $250 on the three on a net basis, which represent the only speculative activity in 2020. All this could change dramatically, Friday as TEAM reports after market close Thursday.

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3 hours ago, DarterBlue said:

Stocks suffered a bearish reversal day today. What is a reversal day? It is one where the major averages open significantly higher (or lower) as the case may be, only to reverse in the opposite direction and close lower (or higher) as the case may be. To make the day worse, volume was higher indicating that big money was selling into the weakness. With the negative out of the way, by negative day standards it was not particularly severe. The losses in the major indices were relatively mild (less so on the two NASDAQ indices) and secondary stocks represented by the Russell 2000 and S&P Mid Cap index actually closed higher. In fact, in the face of weakness, these two indices actually closed convincingly above their declining 50-day moving averages for the first time in what seems like forever. Further, advancing stocks led 21-8 on the NYSE and 19-14 on the NASDAQ. The range today was from a loss of 1.81% on the NASDAQ 100 (big tech) to a gain of 1.26% on the Russell 2000 (small cap stocks). To me, for now, this feels like a consolidation of gains after a large runup rather than the end of this Covid rally.

 On the day, I got rid of LUV shortly after the open when early gains turned into losses. My selling prices ranged from a low of $28.39 to a high of $29.12. I took a loss of $7,314.50 on the 1,402 shares I had purchased. Obviously, that is not good, but my take was if it could not rally off its beaten down position on a loss which was $0.28 less than the Street consensus, it was going to have a hard time performing well over the next two months. Free from the burden of Darterblue’s ownership, the stock eventually righted itself and closed at $29.69.😁 Do I regret selling? The short answer is no. While I could have gotten a better exit price, the stock had not performed as I had expected and it was time to part ways. On the day I did badly overall, being down over $4k including the day’s loss attributable to LUV. With that said, I now have unrealized gains in TEAM and JD that approximate the realized loss on LUV. At this juncture, I am now down about $250 on the three on a net basis, which represent the only speculative activity in 2020. All this could change dramatically, Friday as TEAM reports after market close Thursday.

One day I hope to understand wtf your saying! Thanks for the updates

 

 

much appreciated 

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13 hours ago, imaGoodBoyNow said:

One day I hope to understand wtf your saying! Thanks for the updates

 

 

much appreciated 

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You need to: read; watch videos; and lastly, observe the market's action in real time. You don't need to: listen to the regular pundits on TV; scan the data for the stocks that have gained the most in one day; and, listen to the hot tips others may have. You also need to avoid penny stocks unless you have a childhood friend who is "a stock promoter" that you are confident will give you the inside edge. 

Once you have completed the dos above, and eliminated the don'ts, the next step is to ask yourself a serious question: Who am I as a person? What is my temperament? It may also help to ask a few very close, trusted friends to give you feedback on this. 

Okay, so now you are actually ready to develop your own "trading system." A trading system can be relatively simple, requiring no more than a middle school education or it can be amazingly complex. But I strongly suggest that you need to have one. If you don't you will constantly succumb to your emotions. It is my experience that emotional trades usually end up in losses. It is one of the reasons I keep a diary. The diary helps me see ex-post: 1.What led me to make a particular trade; 2. How the trade worked out in hindsight; 3. Whether my entry point in retrospect made sense; 4. What led me to exit the trade; 5. Whether my exit point made sense; 6. And, finally and of great importance, what was my emotional state during the time frame being analyzed.

Once you have done all of the above, then you have a very good shot at "beating the market" consistently. Equally importantly, you will develop the skills to see likely market tops which at the very least will move you to cash when bad markets come your way.  Most people are incapable of beating the market and many lose money not because it is incredibly complex; but because, they don't do the work and are afraid to do critical self analysis.

Victor Sperandeo, a "Brooklyn Boy, from Bay Ridge," covers a lot of what it takes to be a successful trader. For while he does not reveal his actual strategies, he details a lot of the practical things you need to do to trade effectively. His book is old but is timeless. It is not very long and is written in understandable prose. I would encourage you to read it. The title is: Trader Vic - Methods of a Wall Street Master.  

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44 minutes ago, imaGoodBoyNow said:

@golfaddict1 or @Mjd33 i forgot which one got bitcoins buts it’s pretty high today 

 

@DarterBlue would you sell if you had any or you think it’s gonna go higher 

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Nabors is in the oil patch which is badly beaten down. It is kind of similar to LUV in the sense of being beaten down. If you believe that we have a V shaped recovery, it probably is worth holding. However, there are two risks: 1. We don't get a V shaped recovery, in which case you could book a quick profit today. 2. It goes bankrupt because we don't get a V shaped recovery. I have no opinion on the penny stock except to say, I would never buy one. 

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5 minutes ago, DarterBlue said:

Nabors is in the oil patch which is badly beaten down. It is kind of similar to LUV in the sense of being beaten down. If you believe that we have a V shaped recovery, it probably is worth holding. However, there are two risks: 1. We don't get a V shaped recovery, in which case you could book a quick profit today. 2. It goes bankrupt because we don't get a V shaped recovery. I have no opinion on the penny stock except to say, I would never buy one. 

I was talking about if you had bitcoin would you hold or sell while it’s around $8,400

 

 

 

the Nabor I felt like it already hit rock bottom and wiTh the restrictions being lifted on businesses the economy should start to be more stable by July . Hopefully the stock gets back up to +$100 a share and I’ll cash out in August

 

or I lose it all, you live and ya learn

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5 minutes ago, imaGoodBoyNow said:

I was talking about if you had bitcoin would you hold or sell while it’s around $8,400

 

 

 

the Nabor I felt like it already hit rock bottom and wiTh the restrictions being lifted on businesses the economy should start to be more stable by July . Hopefully the stock gets back up to +$100 a share and I’ll cash out in August

 

or I lose it all, you live and ya learn

You should never go all or nothing. If you lose your trading capital, you are out of the game. Regarding Bitcoin, I like it. For me, I would own the GBTC. But if you have the actual coin, I got no problem with it. 

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Today’s market action was as good as the action on April 6, when I decided it was time to reenter the market. Socks of all stripes with the sole exception of the Utilities were broadly and significantly higher. Secondary stocks which greatly outperformed yesterday when the market was somewhat negative did so again today when everything was wine and roses. I cannot think of a single flaw in the day’s action. The range today was from a gain of 2.21% on the DOW to 4.83% on the Russell 2000. Advancing stocks led 13-2 on the NYSE and more than 4-1 on the NASDAQ. The only red flag has nothing to do with the action of the market; it has to do with the fact that the market is now overbought. What does overbought mean? It means that things may have gone up too far too fast. It may be measured by an Oscillator such as the McClennan or by the extent to which the averages have risen above their moving averages by a predetermined percentage. Because of the magnitude of the losses from February to late March, the latter is not a factor. However, the oscillator I use is in significant overbought territory. My best bet is that the market continues higher tomorrow, as several big stocks (MSFT, FB, etc.) rallied on earnings after the close and probably pull back Friday or Monday to work off or at least temper the overbought situation. So, the question on a personal basis is, do I replace the LUV sale with another position tomorrow or do I wait for the pullback? One possible replacement is MSFT which is now in what I consider buy range. Another ZM, a very volatile stock that probably has great near-term price appreciation potential.

On a personal note the two positions I own performed in line with the market today. So, I am back in the black. LUV, which I sold yesterday, continued to stick its tongue out at me rising over 4% today. Whether the sale was an error or not, its timing clearly was. Is there a lesson to learn from this? It is too soon to tell. We will see how the airlines react to AAL whose earnings got pushed back from Tuesday to Thursday tomorrow.

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12 hours ago, DarterBlue said:

So, the question on a personal basis is, do I replace the LUV sale with another position tomorrow or do I wait for the pullback? One possible replacement is MSFT which is now in what I consider buy range. Another ZM, a very volatile stock that probably has great near-term price appreciation potential.

Placed a limit order to buy 380 shares of ZM good for the day at a limit price of $133. Odds are good I get filled. ZM has been pulling back after a big run up which, despite technical issues with its product, I don't think is over. 

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16 minutes ago, imaGoodBoyNow said:

I’ll fill in today for the report 

 

stocks were good in morning then dipped at lunch then rebounded nicely at end of day 

 

 

How do I know this you may ask,? Cause my portfolio increased  8%

When you make money on a down day, that's some serious out-performance, right there!

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8 minutes ago, HawgGoneIt said:

Had this in my news feed today. Just wondering if the local market gurus pay stories like this any attention at all or is it just nonsense?

https://markets.businessinsider.com/amp/news/buffett-indicator-surges-record-high-signaling-potential-crash-2020-4-1029149296

He’s sitting on a bleep load of cash... ready to buy when he is feeling the love.  BRK.B  is tempting.  It’s on my watchlist.  

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1 minute ago, HawgGoneIt said:

Had this in my news feed today. Just wondering if the local market gurus pay stories like this any attention at all or is it just nonsense?

https://markets.businessinsider.com/amp/news/buffett-indicator-surges-record-high-signaling-potential-crash-2020-4-1029149296

It's not nonsense at all. However, valuation measures, of which the Buffett indicator is one, indicate risk; but they are not usually good timing devices. What that indicator is saying is that stocks are overvalued relative to historical metrics. However, what the indicator ignores is that interest rates are at zero to financial institutions and preferred corporate borrowers. It also ignores the fact that the FED is willing to intervene in financial markets in an unprecedented fashion. With all of that said, with the Buffett indicator as high as it is, it probably means two things: 1. We will have another deep correction/bear market in the next few years (assuming the current one is over); and 2. Returns on stocks over the next decade will probably be poor. 

However, the current rally could easily extend through summer and beyond. So if you are a trader you want to be long with an eye on door. But if you are a long term, value investor, now is probably not the time to be actively buying. 

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All indies except the NASDAQ 100 closed lower today. The losses were tempered by two factors. First, the indices closed in the higher end of their range. Second, volume contracted which is what you want to see on pullbacks. You don’t want to see the big money heading for the exits. At the close, the range today was from a small gain of .2% on the NASDAQ 100 to a large loss of 3.68% on the Russell, which reflected the fact that secondary stocks which led for the first three days of the week, were weak today. This was reflected in poor breadth with losing stocks leading by margins of nearly 3-1 on the NYSE and over 2.5-1 on the NASDAQ. How do I read the day’s activity? As noted yesterday, the market was overbought. It was due for consolidation. I expected that would probably come on Friday and Monday due to the fact that several big technology companies reported relatively good earnings after the close on Wednesday. Well, it began today. I expect at the open tomorrow to have a gap down as the market was not impressed with AMZN (Amazon) which announced after the close that it expected to make no money in the second quarter due to expenditures related to Covid-19. As a result of this, the futures are down significantly as I type this. I don’t see this as especially negative. The market has had a big runup in April. Another two down days, would probably do it good, as it would clear out some of the froth that has been building up. Markets in sustainable uptrends don’t go straight up. They tend to stairstep up. And my current belief is that this is just a pullback in a stairstep process.

 On a personal note, I was net down about $250 on the day, as TEAM and JD cancelled each other out more or less. After the close, TEAM was down 5% as while they beat on current quarter earnings and sales, their forward guidance was a bit lower than analysts’ expectations. I find this somewhat amusing since most companies have pulled their guidance because of the economic uncertainty caused by Covid-19. Assuming TEAM opens down about 5%, I would not be overly concerned as this would not put it below its 10-day trading range. However, if it were to continue selling off, I will need to watch its price and volume action very carefully. I did not buy ZM as the stock did not trade down to the $133 limit I placed on the buy order. I will try again tomorrow since it is nearing support and I think, at least at the open, that the market will be down. I may lower my limit price down to about $131, which is just above its 50-day ascending moving average which should be a logical place for the stock to find support.

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On 4/29/2020 at 11:59 AM, imaGoodBoyNow said:

@golfaddict1 or @Mjd33 i forgot which one got bitcoins buts it’s pretty high today 

 

@DarterBlue would you sell if you had any or you think it’s gonna go higher 

AC6489A1-CD60-4E54-9672-F3B887C0BAEE.png

Interesting read on the upcoming Bitcoin halving, that will take place on May 12th.  

https://www.forbes.com/sites/leeorshimron/2020/05/01/bitcoins-third-halving-will-be-its-biggest-test-yet/#76cfc5952e6e

 

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International Workers’ Day (May Day), proved antagonistic to the stock market in true Marxian fashion. Stocks closed broadly lower on, this is a good thing, lower volume. The losses were severe and turned large weekly gains into modest weekly losses on most indices (small and mid-cap indices remained positive despite the bad Friday). At Friday’s close, the losses were from 2.55% on the DOW to 3.83% on the Russell small cap index. Losing stocks led by margins of 6-1 on the NYSE and 4.5-1 on the NASDAQ. It was not a good day. So, what is my take on this action? As noted by me Wednesday, the market was very overbought. Today, the overbought situation is down to mildly overbought based on the indicator I use to track this condition. I am still very optimistic that this will prove to be just a needed pullback within the context of an up-trending market. Could I change my mind? Of course, technicians are not faithful people. We, especially trend followers like myself, go with the weight of the evidence. As new data comes to light as evidenced by market action, we revise our opinions. What do I expect will happen over the next few days? We could easily have another weak day Monday. But if we do, I think this will be followed by a rally beginning either as early as Tuesday, but certainly by mid-week. As such, I don’t view now as a time to sell. In fact, if under invested like I am, it is probably a time to buy if you can get the right price for the merchandise you have been eyeing.

 On a personal note, on Friday, I lost over $2,400. With that, I am now negative just under $400 since I went long April 7. In context, over $11,000 of gains have been erased largely due to LUV’s poor performance. Of the two positions I currently own, JD had a bad day and I am now showing a 3% loss on the position. On the other hand, TEAM battled back from an early loss of nearly 7% to close down less than a percent after briefly going positive. This action was very encouraging in light of its after market selloff Thursday. While Friday is only one data point for TEAM, I really liked its action and think it goes quite a bit higher over the next month. I did not get a fill on ZM Friday due to dropping my limit order to $131. Had I left it at $133 I would now own 380 shares as the stock traded down to about $132.60. A limit order becomes a market order when the stock trades down to your limit price or gaps below it. However, it does not guarantee that the transaction will be filled at the limit price, just that it will be filled at market after hitting the limit price. It is possible that my meanness may prove costly as the stock proceeded to close above $136. As it had traded down near support, if the market bottoms Tuesday, it would not at all surprise me if we have seen the low for this stock for now. I do intend to try and purchase it again Tuesday, and, depending on market conditions, I may even pay up to do so.

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Stocks closed mostly higher after opening lower. Only the NYSE finished down, but it was well off day lows. Today was a positive reversal day, as stocks opened lower but reversed higher. Volume today was flat on the NYSE and lower on the NASDAQ. Breadth was not particularly good, as declining stocks outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE to the tune of 8-7. However, on the NASDAQ advancing stocks led 17-15. I actually see the relatively bad breadth as positive as it helps work off the overbought situation without the averages actually going down. Another day or two of consolidation with mild gains/losses would be ideal. However, I would be a bit surprised if we get this given the skittish nature of the action. Today, the range was from a tiny loss of .02% on the NYSE to a gain of 1.33% on the NASDAQ 100. Nasdaq stocks were by far the best performers on the day. I view the day’s action as constructive and continue to believe we have higher prices ahead of us at least through the end of June.

 Back in the Black: I had a good day, outperforming the market. TEAM, to no surprise here, rocketed to new all-time highs up over 5%. JD was up 2% and I am now down just over 1% on this one. While it has given me cause for concern, I still have high hopes for it and believe the trend is higher. Today, I attempted to fill two positions. First 388 shares of ZM; second 12 call options on the S&P with a July expiration. I paid up and was filled between $141.95 and $142 on ZM. I did not get a fill on the calls as my limit price of $15.50 was not reached. I may try again with the calls tomorrow. I am also considering buying COST, which I view as the best of the essential retailers. At today’s close, I am up over $5k since I reentered the market on a limited basis on April 7.

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Stocks were going along like a romantic couple, out for a stroll, on a beautiful spring evening. Everything was fine and dandy. All the indices were higher; volume was up; leading stocks were breaking out of nice consolidation patterns; and, then came the final forty five minutes of trading. For no apparent reason, there was no negative news I could find, the averages sold off hard into the close. Still, all indices did close in the black. But they gave back between 50% and over 2/3rds of the day’s gains. Volume tracked higher all day and did not abate in the selloff phase. What do I make of the weak close? It is mildly troubling. Certainly, if we were to get another day like this or a couple of stalling days, over the next week, I would get very concerned. However, I am willing to attribute the weak action into the close as general skittishness leading some traders to take their chips off the table. At the close, the indices still gained from .56% on the DOW to 1.13% on the NASDAQ. Advancing stocks held leads of 16-13 and 17-15 on the NYSE and NASDAQ. At 3pm, these leads were in excess of 4-1 on both exchanges. It was clear some damage was done.

 On a personal note, I again out-legged the market due to continued strength in TEAM, which built on yesterday’s stellar gains tacking on another 4%. At 3pm, I was at my high water mark in terms of profits. But I gave up some 3/7th of my gains in the final hour. Still all three positions closed in the black and JD is once again showing a profit. I tried to get COST, but my limit order was not filled as this one actually held on to its gains despite the late day weakness. I did not try for the S&P call options due to the gap up at the open. I was unwilling to pay up for them, as they are a wasting asset and timing is of the essence when trading such vehicles. Depending on how tomorrow’s open shapes up, I may try and purchase either or both of these positions. I am also eyeing MSFT as a possible buy candidate.

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Stocks again bided time and again finished at or near day lows. Normally, in up-trending markets, it is better for stocks to finish in the upper end of their range, even if down on the day. Volume did decline, though, as the big institutions are not aggressively selling. With that said, the action yesterday and today, has been suspect. That’s the negative. Looking at this from a positive standpoint, the market has worked off its overbought condition while yielding little ground. A look at a two-week chart of the broad based, NYSE shows that it has marked time over this period. So, what do I think? In my opinion, the weight of the evidence points to further upside over the next two months. However, the action needs to be watched carefully.

 On a personal note, today we acquired 195 shares of COST at a price of $306.80. The stock closed more than 2 points higher. So, the trade is off to a good start. In fact, all four positions I currently own were up on the day despite the fact that most indices closed down. I again failed to get the 12 S&P Call Option contracts. Depending on tomorrow’s action I may try again.

 

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For the third day in a row, the market closed weakly. Aside from the NASDAQ and S&P Mid Cap index, all other indices closed at or very near day lows. More positively, all indices closed solidly in the black and volume was higher indicating a measure of support by the big money crowd. The day’s range was from a gain of .89% on the DOW to 1.65% on the S&P Mid Cap index. Advancing stocks led by margins of just under 3-1 on the NYSE and about 2.25-1 on the NASDAQ. At day highs, the averages were approximately 75% higher than they were at the close. Noteworthy is the fact that for the first time since late February, the NASDAQ is now in positive territory year to date. What is my take on the action over the last three days? Stocks are clearly laboring somewhat. Still, the trend is higher. However, there is cause for concern. A healthy bull market closes strongly not weakly. The current weakness in the final hour of trade, if it continues, will lead to at least a short-term change in market direction. Therefore, the next three trading days bear close watching.

 On a personal note, for the fourth day in a row, I outperformed the market averages. It is interesting I have done very well this week given the fact the market has labored since Monday. Usually, a trader does best when the indices move strongly in the direction of his trades. This time three of the four stocks: TEAM, ZM and JD were up solidly. COST, on the other hand, lost ground and I now have a small loss in this position. ZM true to its name (Zoom Video Communications), literally zoomed and was my biggest winner. TEAM (Atlassian), was up for the fourth day in a row after breaking into new high ground Monday. I now have a profit of about 35% in it and it is time to start thinking about the possibility of nailing down profits. I will do so, however, only if and when it exhibits warning signs of impending exhaustion. It is the sitting that makes the big money but is hardest for a trader to do. Emotions constantly get in the way whether in the form of fear that the profits will evaporate, or excessive exuberance reflected in each upward tick of the stock’s price. The trick is to look at the action with dispassion and let the stock tell you when to exit.

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Stocks closed broadly higher today on mixed volume. NASDAQ volume rose, while NYSE volume declined. Unlike Tuesday through Thursday, the rally was strong into the close. It did not fade this time. Small and Mid Cap stocks shone, but stocks of all stripes participated. The range of gains was from 1.3% on the NASDAQ 100 to over 3.6% on the Russell 2000. Advancing stocks led by margins of 4.8-1 on the NYSE and 3.6-1 on the NASDAQ. It was hard to find any flaws in today’s trade which was strong despite the horrible unemployment numbers released before the open. On the week, stocks had big gains ranging from 2.6% on the DOW to 6% on the NASDAQ. As we end the week, the rally that started in early April, has broadened fairly well. More importantly, though, is its velocity, as the gains have come almost as quickly as the losses were incurred in mid-February through late March. What is my take going into the weekend? For now, the rally is clearly alive and well.

 From a market purist’s perspective, today was the best day of the week in terms of price and volume action. It had few flaws. Thus, it is interesting that it was by far my worst day of the week as I barely eked out a tiny gain of $82 on a day when all the indices were up from well over 1% to well over 3%. On the day, two of my positions were up and two were down. The four essentially cancelled each other out. It is interesting to note that my two losers, TEAM and ZM, had been my stars on the week. The winners, COST and JD had been the laggards, particularly COST, which despite gains today, still reflected a small unrealized loss since purchase at the close. How do I view this? The NASDAQ indices were the laggards today, despite scoring impressive gains in their own right. Both my losers are typical of stocks that trade on that exchange, being Tech issues that are somewhat speculative. Does this mean anything? It is hard to say whether the day’s market performance is indicative of a developing rotation in stock market leadership or just a one day blip. For that matter, could it be indicative of the market’s leadership topping out, reflecting, if you will, the proverbial “canary in the coal mine?” It is too early to tell, but bears watching. With that said, this week was by far my best week since I went long on April 7. I ended it with gains north of $20k. Given that my total committed capital was only $219k, it represents gains of approximately 10% on committed capital. When you can do that in a week without trading derivatives or using margin, that is a very successful week. In perspective, it was my best week since the week of the Florida, high school state title games in December 2018. That week I made over $30k. However, my vehicles then were long puts on the: S&P, NASDAQ 100 and Russell 2000. Thus, this week was more impressive.

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1 hour ago, imaGoodBoyNow said:

God I hate you 😂 

Nah, you don't; use me as an example. I opened my first account with $8,000 in it. That amount represented a bonus payout plus some meager accumulated savings. Of the $219k you referenced, approximately 75% of it represents amounts "earned from the market." If you take the game seriously, you, too, can make some decent money out of trading. It takes work, but it is possible. 

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