The Stock Market

[DarterBlue]

48 minutes ago, HSFBfan said:

I did say if they are financially set. Ge Ford etc have been crap for a while now 

How do you know if a stock is financially set? Do you look at their 10K, 10Q, etc.? Even if you do, how do you know the financial statements are honest? 

Bottom line: If you buy declining stocks you should choose specific levels of support to buy at. If they don't hold the support after you buy, you should get out of the position. If you keep buying going down, eventually you will buy the mother of all losers.

Take this lesson for what its worth or reject it if you want. I have done this for almost 31 years and I know from the bitter pills of experience how the game works. 

[HSFBfan]

19 minutes ago, DarterBlue said:

How do you know if a stock is financially set? Do you look at their 10K, 10Q, etc.? Even if you do, how do you know the financial statements are honest? 

Bottom line: If you buy declining stocks you should choose specific levels of support to buy at. If they don't hold the support after you buy, you should get out of the position. If you keep buying going down, eventually you will buy the mother of all losers.

Take this lesson for what its worth or reject it if you want. I have done this for almost 31 years and I know from the bitter pills of experience how the game works. 

Yep i agree completely with you. 

[HSFBfan]

Best quarter poated since 1987

[DarterBlue]

Following Monday’s footsteps, stocks closed broadly higher but this time on higher volume. At the close, the range was from a gain of .85% on the DOW to 1.96% on the NASDAQ. Advancing stocks led by margins of 2-1 on the NYSE and 11-5 on the NASDAQ. Today was in some respects better and in other respects worse than yesterday. Better was seen in the fact that the advance was on higher volume. It was also reflected in the fact that technology, which had led this bull market reasserted its dominance in terms of price performance. On the other hand, breadth was not as good as yesterdays. also, like yesterday, there was a surge at the close that smacked of artificial buying. The gains this week have come on the closing of the best quarter in recent market history. In the case of the DOW it was the best since 1987. In the case of the NASDAQ and S&P it was the best since 1999 and 1998, respectively. How do I view the action? Yesterday, I stated that it felt like a bull trap. I stand by that view, but with less conviction. Perhaps we are still in the trading range we seemed to have established shortly before mid-June. If that is the case, we are heading back to the upper end of it. Can we break through? The NASDAQ, which remains the strongest index certainly has a good chance. However, the other indices are still lingering a good distance below current bull market highs set over two weeks ago.

 On a personal note, I was up $6,680 or 1.22% on the day, underperforming for the second day in a row. But I can take underperformance like this. SHOP, which an all-time high; TEAM, ZM and the SPY, Call Options all had great days. On the other hand, LCII, TTD and MDY were up, but not significantly. NKLA was the only loser as the options were down 60 cents on the day.

[imaGoodBoyNow]

2 hours ago, HSFBfan said:

Best quarter poated since 1987

Tell that to my portfolio cause he didn’t get the message 

[imaGoodBoyNow]

55 minutes ago, DarterBlue said:

Following Monday’s footsteps, stocks closed broadly higher but this time on higher volume. At the close, the range was from a gain of .85% on the DOW to 1.96% on the NASDAQ. Advancing stocks led by margins of 2-1 on the NYSE and 11-5 on the NASDAQ. Today was in some respects better and in other respects worse than yesterday. Better was seen in the fact that the advance was on higher volume. It was also reflected in the fact that technology, which had led this bull market reasserted its dominance in terms of price performance. On the other hand, breadth was not as good as yesterdays. also, like yesterday, there was a surge at the close that smacked of artificial buying. The gains this week have come on the closing of the best quarter in recent market history. In the case of the DOW it was the best since 1987. In the case of the NASDAQ and S&P it was the best since 1999 and 1998, respectively. How do I view the action? Yesterday, I stated that it felt like a bull trap. I stand by that view, but with less conviction. Perhaps we are still in the trading range we seemed to have established shortly before mid-June. If that is the case, we are heading back to the upper end of it. Can we break through? The NASDAQ, which remains the strongest index certainly has a good chance. However, the other indices are still lingering a good distance below current bull market highs set over two weeks ago.

 On a personal note, I was up $6,680 or 1.22% on the day, underperforming for the second day in a row. But I can take underperformance like this. SHOP, which an all-time high; TEAM, ZM and the SPY, Call Options all had great days. On the other hand, LCII, TTD and MDY were up, but not significantly. NKLA was the only loser as the options were down 60 cents on the day.

When’s your NKLA option expire?

[rockinl]

Well shit. The last 2 I bought were "strong buys" and almost within hours of buying they frigging drop like a rock.

Gonna sit on them a while and see.

[BigDrop]

DarterBlue:  serious, today was perhaps a life changing day for me.  Sold almost all of my stock along with VWINX which I have championed for 10+ years.  55-60% of our retirement is in laddered CD’s, bonds (that haven’t been called yet(!) ), munis and cash. For the next few months or longer I’m out.

 

[DarterBlue]

1 hour ago, imaGoodBoyNow said:

When’s your NKLA option expire?

I bought deep, out of the money, LEAP calls that expire in January, 2022. It is basically a bet that the company is for real, and that they are going to produce a functional truck and probably consumer vehicles as well. Rather than buy a position in the stock for $40,000+ which is what I put into my long positions, I bought 12 calls at $10, for a total of $12,000 plus $20 in fees and commissions as my options trades are not commission free (the fees are that high because the calls are in 4 accounts, two IRAs a joint account and an individual account). That way if it blows up, which is very possible, my loss is limited to a relatively small amount as $12k is just over 2% of my portfolio.

In any event, if it does not tank but starts looking sketchy, because of the long date on the options, I should be able to cover and salvage a few K of the money invested since the time value (theta) will still have some value. For me it is about survival, in addition to making money. And by managing my risk carefully, I will survive.  

[imaGoodBoyNow]

NRGU taking a beating 

 

3.75

 

 

[HSFBfan]

1 minute ago, imaGoodBoyNow said:

NRGU taking a beating 

 

3.75

 

 

Oil isn't bouncing back as fast as people thought. 

Can't get past 40 dollars a barrel. And they stated it will be at 40 for a while 

[imaGoodBoyNow]

@DarterBlue I did my first Put and it was going really good until the millennials on WeBull and Robinhood fucked it all up, for some reason people are still buying Hertz

[DarterBlue]

19 minutes ago, imaGoodBoyNow said:

@DarterBlue I did my first Put and it was going really good until the millennials on WeBull and Robinhood fucked it all up, for some reason people are still buying Hertz

Hertz  will go to zero. I am very sure of that. The company will survive or merge with another, but the current shareholders will be wiped out. But in the short run, idiots may still run the stock up because they don't know a darn thing about finance. This is the risk you assume when you buy the current month expiration. You can be totally right but loose your money. That is why I only buy current month when I am making a bet on earnings (call if I am positive or puts if negative) because I know based on the almanac that they are due before expiration.

This game is difficult. But for awhile, neophytes can make money. The best thing that could happen to them is to lose an amount that hurts. One of three things happens then: 1. They leave the game because it is too hard and painful. 2. They start to study and learn from their mistakes and become competent. 3. They continue to make the same mistakes over and over and over, and become the "mark." Please do either one or two. Don't go down the path of three!  There are better ways to have fun.

[HSFBfan]

12 minutes ago, DarterBlue said:

Hertz  will go to zero. I am very sure of that. The company will survive or merge with another, but the current shareholders will be wiped out. But in the short run, idiots may still run the stock up because they don't know a darn thing about finance. This is the risk you assume when you buy the current month expiration. You can be totally right but loose your money. That is why I only buy current month when I am making a bet on earnings (call if I am positive or puts if negative) because I know based on the almanac that they are due before expiration.

This game is difficult. But for awhile, neophytes can make money. The best thing that could happen to them is to lose an amount that hurts. One of three things happens then: 1. They leave the game because it is too hard and painful. 2. They start to study and learn from their mistakes and become competent. 3. They continue to make the same mistakes over and over and over, and become the "mark." Please do either one or two. Don't go down the path of three!  There are better ways to have fun.

Unfortunately like the kid who blew his brains out

[DarterBlue]

1 hour ago, HSFBfan said:

Unfortunately like the kid who blew his brains out

Yes. That was a sad situation.

[HSFBfan]

Just now, DarterBlue said:

Yes. That was a sad situation.

I absolutely agree. But I wanna know how he got his hands on a million dollars and he was openly talking about trading. How was he not being asked what kind of trades and such he was doing. When you have that much money on the line and you know u don't have a clue someone needs to monitor you

[DarterBlue]

1 minute ago, HSFBfan said:

I absolutely agree. But I wanna know how he got his hands on a million dollars and he was openly talking about trading. How was he not being asked what kind of trades and such he was doing. When you have that much money on the line and you know u don't have a clue someone needs to monitor you

When I first stated to participate in the market, that would never have happened. My broker would not have allowed it back then. 

[HSFBfan]

14 minutes ago, DarterBlue said:

When I first stated to participate in the market, that would never have happened. My broker would not have allowed it back then. 

Well i believe he was on RH. So no broker or anything just sign on and start trading 

[DarterBlue]

Just now, HSFBfan said:

Well i believe he was on RH. So no broker or anything just sign on and start trading 

They are still, effectively, a broker.

I was with a discount broker from the start as I never wanted to pay for advice. But as a matter of sound business practices and probably the regulations that existed back in 1989, they would not have allowed me to destroy myself in dramatic fashion like that. 

[HSFBfan]

3 minutes ago, DarterBlue said:

They are still, effectively, a broker.

I was with a discount broker from the start as I never wanted to pay for advice. But as a matter of sound business practices and probably the regulations that existed back in 1989, they would not have allowed me to destroy myself in dramatic fashion like that. 

Exactly 

[DarterBlue]

Stocks closed mixed today on mixed volume. NASDAQ volume was higher NYSE volume was lower. The range on the day was from a loss of .97% on the Russell to a gain of 1.21% on the NASDAQ 100. Technology stocks were very strong. Secondary stocks were very weak (the Russell and MID Cap indices were the biggest losers). The DOW and NYSE were blah, while the S&P was okay. On the NYSE advancing stocks held a 15-14 lead. But on the NASDAQ, declining stocks led 18-15. In short, there were divergences all over the place. So, what is my take on the action? It was good to see technology, which has led this bull market reasserting itself. However, it was not good to see the narrowness of participation. In a healthy bull market, there is broad based strength. This market lacks that in spades. So, does this mean I am getting more bearish? No, both NASDAQ indices, closed at all-time highs today. When leadership continues to lead, it is hard to conclude that we have topped. So, where do I stand? I am bullish near term but my eyes continue to be on the door. From the start, I have stated that this is a totally Fed induced bull market. The fundamentals do not justify it. However, markets that are overvalued can go up for a lot longer than rational people would think and this may well be one such instance.

 On a personal note, I had a much better day than the averages. I was up $9,673, or 1.74%. Leading the charge uphill were: SHOP, which closed at an all-time high and was up over 7% on the day; other notable winners were: TTD, TEAM, ZM and the SPY, September Call options. My losers were the MDY ETF, and the NKLA call Options. I am now at an all-time high in my trading equity. Since I reentered the market on April 7, 2020 after being on the sidelines since mid-October 2019, I am up over $79,000. This represents a gain of about 16.5% on starting equity. Funnily enough, I have never been more than 63% invested over the period, as I have stopped going all in in my old age. It is now time for me to evaluate when and where to take profits on three of my big winners: ZM, SHOP and TTD. I also need to evaluate whether I should get rid of the MDY and perhaps the S&P call options, both of which are in the red and have been disappointments. Regarding ZM, the intention is to try and keep it. Its fundamentals are great, and it shows signs of being a 100% winner or more based on my prior experience. With respect to TTD and SHOP, in my opinion they are both very strong, but are ahead of fundamentals and are stretched technically. Thus, I need to seriously consider whether I should take my profits on the way up, or sit tight in which case I will have to take them on the way down. The day before Independence is usually a quiet one with a slight upside bias. So, I should have time overnight and tomorrow to make a measured decision with respect to what is a good problem to have. For the record, ZM is up 51% while TTD and SHOP are up 43% and 36%, respectively. The S&P Options are down 15% while MDY is down 3.5%.

[imaGoodBoyNow]

5 minutes ago, DarterBlue said:

Stocks closed mixed today on mixed volume. NASDAQ volume was higher NYSE volume was lower. The range on the day was from a loss of .97% on the Russell to a gain of 1.21% on the NASDAQ 100. Technology stocks were very strong. Secondary stocks were very weak (the Russell and MID Cap indices were the biggest losers). The DOW and NYSE were blah, while the S&P was okay. On the NYSE advancing stocks held a 15-14 lead. But on the NASDAQ, declining stocks led 18-15. In short, there were divergences all over the place. So, what is my take on the action? It was good to see technology, which has led this bull market reasserting itself. However, it was not good to see the narrowness of participation. In a healthy bull market, there is broad based strength. This market lacks that in spades. So, does this mean I am getting more bearish? No, both NASDAQ indices, closed at all-time highs today. When leadership continues to lead, it is hard to conclude that we have topped. So, where do I stand? I am bullish near term but my eyes continue to be on the door. From the start, I have stated that this is a totally Fed induced bull market. The fundamentals do not justify it. However, markets that are overvalued can go up for a lot longer than rational people would think and this may well be one such instance.

 On a personal note, I had a much better day than the averages. I was up $9,673, or 1.74%. Leading the charge uphill were: SHOP, which closed at an all-time high and was up over 7% on the day; other notable winners were: TTD, TEAM, ZM and the SPY, September Call options. My losers were the MDY ETF, and the NKLA call Options. I am now at an all-time high in my trading equity. Since I reentered the market on April 7, 2020 after being on the sidelines since mid-October 2019, I am up over $79,000. This represents a gain of about 16.5% on starting equity. Funnily enough, I have never been more than 63% invested over the period, as I have stopped going all in in my old age. It is now time for me to evaluate when and where to take profits on three of my big winners: ZM, SHOP and TTD. I also need to evaluate whether I should get rid of the MDY and perhaps the S&P call options, both of which are in the red and have been disappointments. Regarding ZM, the intention is to try and keep it. Its fundamentals are great, and it shows signs of being a 100% winner or more based on my prior experience. With respect to TTD and SHOP, in my opinion they are both very strong, but are ahead of fundamentals and are stretched technically. Thus, I need to seriously consider whether I should take my profits on the way up, or sit tight in which case I will have to take them on the way down. The day before Independence is usually a quiet one with a slight upside bias. So, I should have time overnight and tomorrow to make a measured decision with respect to what is a good problem to have. For the record, ZM is up 51% while TTD and SHOP are up 43% and 36%, respectively. The S&P Options are down 15% while MDY is down 3.5%.

I feel like NKLA is gonna shoot up when they release the Badger pickup truck 

[DarterBlue]

5 minutes ago, imaGoodBoyNow said:

I feel like NKLA is gonna shoot up when they release the Badger pickup truck 

It is really hard to say which is why I kept my position down at $12,000. Usually, at this stage of its life cycle, a company like NKLA is not public and is still being venture capital financed. They lucked out in this FED induced bull market in that they found an investor who was willing to take them public much faster and on much better terms making NKLA's founder a billionaire even though we don't know if he will ever have an operational product. I certainly hope you are right as the options could go up 400% or more if that is the case. But as always, I am a bit skeptical which is why I kept my stake relatively small. 

My mantra has always been: hope for the best, but cover my backside. You don't go broke doing that, even though you don't maximize profits when you are right. 

[imaGoodBoyNow]

@DarterBlue I tried staying away from calls but PSE&G news came out and the calls are really cheap

[DarterBlue]

31 minutes ago, imaGoodBoyNow said:

@DarterBlue I tried staying away from calls but PSE&G news came out and the calls are really cheap

So, you bought them? The stock looks like it was up, so, so far, so good, then. I don't really have an opinion on Pacific Gas and Electric. Never owned it and aside from the Julia Roberts flick when EB exposed their wrongdoings, have never had it on my radar, mostly because I have never owned a big utility.

Given I am a growth investor/trader, the Utilities have never appealed to me as they don't match my expectations.