imaGoodBoyNow Posted July 2, 2020 Report Share Posted July 2, 2020 8 minutes ago, DarterBlue said: So, you bought them? The stock looks like it was up, so, so far, so good, then. I don't really have an opinion on Pacific Gas and Electric. Never owned it and aside from the Julia Roberts flick when EB exposed their wrongdoings, have never had it on my radar, mostly because I have never owned a big utility. Given I am a growth investor/trader, the Utilities have never appealed to me as they don't match my expectations. No but they would probably be my only play if I do choose to make a small call Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarterBlue Posted July 2, 2020 Author Report Share Posted July 2, 2020 1 hour ago, imaGoodBoyNow said: No but they would probably be my only play if I do choose to make a small call The chart of the DOW Jones Utility index is not that strong. Why do you think PCG is going to be strong? Normally, when I buy a stock I either want the other members of the group to be strong, or if cyclical issues coming off a bad market for all or at least most of them to be on the RHS of a U shaped formation. It may work, but I am not sure what your reasoning is for buying it? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarterBlue Posted July 2, 2020 Author Report Share Posted July 2, 2020 12 hours ago, DarterBlue said: It is now time for me to evaluate when and where to take profits on three of my big winners: ZM, SHOP and TTD. I also need to evaluate whether I should get rid of the MDY and perhaps the S&P call options, both of which are in the red and have been disappointments. Regarding ZM, the intention is to try and keep it. Its fundamentals are great, and it shows signs of being a 100% winner or more based on my prior experience. With respect to TTD and SHOP, in my opinion they are both very strong, but are ahead of fundamentals and are stretched technically. Thus, I need to seriously consider whether I should take my profits on the way up, or sit tight in which case I will have to take them on the way down. The day before Independence is usually a quiet one with a slight upside bias. So, I should have time overnight and tomorrow to make a measured decision with respect to what is a good problem to have. For the record, ZM is up 51% while TTD and SHOP are up 43% and 36%, respectively. The S&P Options are down 15% while MDY is down 3.5%. The market seems as if it is going to provide the perfect opportunity for me to book profits if I so decide. Funnily enough, I am not as impressed with the employment data as most analysts. And anyway, regard them as a rear view mirror perspective, devoid from what is the current situation with Covid-19. It is going to be very tempting to unload SHOP and TTD, and, perhaps, the S&P Options and MDY. We will see, though. Madness often goes on for much longer than one would think. The current situation may well be one of those examples ... the question is, if that is so, will I have the stomach to ride it to its conclusion? That is much easier said than done. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSFBfan Posted July 2, 2020 Report Share Posted July 2, 2020 Just now, DarterBlue said: The market seems as if it is going to provide the perfect opportunity for me to book profits if I so decide. Funnily enough, I am not as impressed with the employment data as most analysts. And anyway, regard them as a rear view mirror perspective, devoid from what is the current situation with Covid-19. It is going to be very tempting to unload SHOP and TTD, and, perhaps, the S&P Options and MDY. We will see, though. Madness often goes on for much longer than one would think. The current situation may well be one of those examples ... the question is, if that is so, will I have the stomach to ride it to its conclusion? That is much easier said than done. They just beat expectations again in the job report And beat unemployment. By over 1 percent Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarterBlue Posted July 2, 2020 Author Report Share Posted July 2, 2020 5 minutes ago, HSFBfan said: They just beat expectations again in the job report And beat unemployment. By over 1 percent You need to learn to drill down. To give context and perspective. You have a tendency to blindly accept the headlines from your favorite news source. But in fairness, most do. In that sense, you are far from unique. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSFBfan Posted July 2, 2020 Report Share Posted July 2, 2020 1 minute ago, DarterBlue said: You need to learn to drill down. To give context and perspective. You have a tendency to blindly accept the headlines from your favorite news source. But in fairness, most do. In that sense, you are far from unique. I saw it on cnbc as well as fox. 2 different sources. As long as u beat expectations its a great thing They say 12.8% unemployment. We get 11.1% unemployment. If that statement isn't good enough for everyone im not sure what is Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarterBlue Posted July 2, 2020 Author Report Share Posted July 2, 2020 2 minutes ago, HSFBfan said: I saw it on cnbc as well as fox. 2 different sources. As long as u beat expectations its a great thing They say 12.8% unemployment. We get 11.1% unemployment. If that statement isn't good enough for everyone im not sure what is Neither source is particularly reliable. Looking at the actual source of the information and drawing your own conclusions is a lot better. I never sought market advice because I knew that no one would have my best interest more than me. The same applies to drawing conclusions from data. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSFBfan Posted July 2, 2020 Report Share Posted July 2, 2020 Just now, DarterBlue said: Neither source is particularly reliable. Looking at the actual source of the information and drawing your own conclusions is a lot better. I never sought market advice because I knew that no one would have my best interest more than me. The same applies to drawing conclusions from data. I think ur looking too deep into this. Unemployment heads lower. Its a day to celebrate as people go back to work Americans working is a great thing Let's get that number below 10% Gov of florida has stated he will not close the state again. Very good. Lt gov of texas basically told fauci to shove it up his ass. Let's go make that money so we can spend that money Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarterBlue Posted July 2, 2020 Author Report Share Posted July 2, 2020 1 minute ago, HSFBfan said: I think ur looking too deep into this. Unemployment heads lower. Its a day to celebrate as people go back to work Americans working is a great thing Let's get that number below 10% Gov of florida has stated he will not close the state again. Very good. Lt gov of texas basically told fauci to shove it up his ass. Let's go make that money so we can spend that money I can assure you, any money I make will not be spent needlessly. You spend yours, I will cheer for the event. I will save mine as I need to the cushion to protect my future. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSFBfan Posted July 2, 2020 Report Share Posted July 2, 2020 2 minutes ago, DarterBlue said: I can assure you, any money I make will not be spent needlessly. You spend yours, I will cheer for the event. I will save mine as I need to the cushion to protect my future. Ok i spend money daily. Esp at small businesses. I believe in spending money to help an economy. For holding onto money not knowing when you will die is foolish. Id rather die having fun and a pauper than living as a millionaire and miserable Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
imaGoodBoyNow Posted July 2, 2020 Report Share Posted July 2, 2020 Fuck, I thought I did I Pfizer call last week, I’da made a killing 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
imaGoodBoyNow Posted July 2, 2020 Report Share Posted July 2, 2020 Tesla is up $1000 per share this year alone lol 😝 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSFBfan Posted July 2, 2020 Report Share Posted July 2, 2020 2 minutes ago, imaGoodBoyNow said: Tesla is up $1000 per share this year alone lol 😝 Wait til tesla goes to Texas Doesn't have to pay the taxes of California. Will get an 84 million dollar tax break to go thete The profits will be bigger. That stock should be looking at 2000 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
imaGoodBoyNow Posted July 2, 2020 Report Share Posted July 2, 2020 Just now, HSFBfan said: Wait til tesla goes to Texas Doesn't have to pay the taxes of California. Will get an 84 million dollar tax break to go thete The profits will be bigger. That stock should be looking at 2000 At @DarterBlue do you see Tesla doing a split stock, I heard Elon mentioning that Tesla’s price is to high Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarterBlue Posted July 2, 2020 Author Report Share Posted July 2, 2020 6 minutes ago, imaGoodBoyNow said: At @DarterBlue do you see Tesla doing a split stock, I heard Elon mentioning that Tesla’s price is to high When I started playing this game, splits were commonplace as the individual investor was respected. Today, they are not as markets are dominated by institutions. To be honest, aside from any psychological effect, splits have no practical impact on a stocks price performance post split. I have no problem buying odd lots of expensive stock. I only own 61 shares of SHOP. But they have done quite well for me so far. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSFBfan Posted July 2, 2020 Report Share Posted July 2, 2020 https://m.jpost.com/breaking-news/israeli-start-up-lemonade-soars-73-percent-in-us-market-debut-633644 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarterBlue Posted July 2, 2020 Author Report Share Posted July 2, 2020 Wide Loose and Just Crazy: Normally, the stock market is calm and sedate before the July 4th holiday. Today is anything but. After liking the jobs numbers and gapping up as a result, stocks pulled back sharply and at one stage looked like they were going to give up all the day's gains as the indices had surrendered anything from 50% of their opening gains to over 75% of them. As I type this, the market is once again attempting to right itself and have a solid day. My equity has been all over the place today, being up almost $13,000 at the highs to up just over $4,500. They are somewhere near the midpoint between these extremes as I type this. Interestingly, the S&P attempted to fill the island created in mid-June at its highs today. The DOW is still a ways from filling its Island reversal. Meanwhile, if the NASDAQ indices can close higher, both will be in new all-time high territory. It has been interesting to see the day's leadership vacillate between the DOW and the NASDAQ indices. The market wants to continue higher. However, it seems there is a glimmer of understanding that we are not on firm footing. At a minimum, I may close out the S&P call options before the close today. I am on the fence regarding the MDY. After careful analysis, I have decided that I will let SHOP and TTD run. They both hit new all-time highs and although they are probably both overpriced, they look like they still have quite a bit further to run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
imaGoodBoyNow Posted July 2, 2020 Report Share Posted July 2, 2020 Bam Bought Pfizer this morning with 1 week expiration and sold it couple hours later for a profit of a nice dinner and a filled gas tank in my car and truck 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarterBlue Posted July 2, 2020 Author Report Share Posted July 2, 2020 20 hours ago, imaGoodBoyNow said: I feel like NKLA is gonna shoot up when they release the Badger pickup truck NKLA may be toast. It has to hold at the $50 range or its big run is probably over, at least for now, if not forever. If it closes below that, I am going to cover the calls and leave it alone. I was leery of the fact that it should still be a non-public company and it may be playing out that way. Too many other companies jumping on the bandwagon. Whenever I see that, I smell a bubble. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarterBlue Posted July 2, 2020 Author Report Share Posted July 2, 2020 Stocks closed broadly higher on lower volume across the board. Good? No, not terrible, but very far from good. Why? Today, as I see it, was a stalling day. Stocks gapped up at the open on a good interpretation of the employment numbers released at 8:30 am. They traded strong for most of the first hour and then shortly after 10:15 am started to sell off. The selloff was attributed to the release of data showing that Florida had 10,109 new cases of Covid-19 today. Whether the attribution was the true cause or not, the quickly gave up up to ¾ of their gains over the next hour before bottoming at around 11:15 am. From there they regained about ½ of the gains they had given up and then traded sideways until approximately 3:00 pm. From there they proceeded to selloff again and in the process took out the day lows set at 11:15 am to close at or very near day lows depending on the index at the closing bell. At the close, the range was from a gain of .32% on the Russell to .76% on the NYSE. Advancing stocks led 19-11 and 19-15 on the NYSE and NASDAQ, respectively. Earlier they had led 10-1 on the NYSE and about 7-1 on the NASDAQ. In short, stocks stalled during the day and though they did not close in the red, the indices gave up from 65% to 80% of their earlier gains. On the back of the divergent day, Wednesday, it is clear to me that despite the two NASDAQ indices at new all-time highs, this is not a healthy bull market and at best we are still in the trading range established in mid-June for most of the indices. To make matters worse, froth is still all around as evidenced by the fact that Lemonade, a new issue, came public and immediately more than doubled the IPO price. We are not in the froth of 1999 yet, but surely we are starting down that path. Too many inexperienced traders in the market, and too many experienced traders willing to take the crowded trades. While Jay Powell may have rescued the market from a severe bear, back in late March, in the process he seems to have set the stage for a bubble that will be very difficult to control and will likely end very badly. On a personal note, I ended up $4,952 or .88% on the day. I had been up as much as just under $13,000 earlier. So, I too, despite outperforming the market, suffered from the selloff. I had stated that at a minimum I was likely to sell my S&P Calls due to concerns about the market in relation to the pandemic backdrop. I also indicated I was considering selling my MDY position. I did neither. And this will likely end up being a mistake. For, despite my having a very good week, up just over $23,000 or about 4.3%, I don’t like the market’s current action and I certainly had the opportunity to get out of the calls with a relatively small loss. I did not take the opportunity and take full responsibility. I suspect I will regret this as I will likely exit at lower prices. At a minimum, I see the broad market continuing to back and fill even if the NASDAQ keeps going higher over the next few weeks. Given that calls are a wasting asset, it is stupid to keep them if I am correct. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
imaGoodBoyNow Posted July 2, 2020 Report Share Posted July 2, 2020 2 hours ago, DarterBlue said: NKLA may be toast. It has to hold at the $50 range or its big run is probably over, at least for now, if not forever. If it closes below that, I am going to cover the calls and leave it alone. I was leery of the fact that it should still be a non-public company and it may be playing out that way. Too many other companies jumping on the bandwagon. Whenever I see that, I smell a bubble. At this point I’m convinced CEO from NKLA is same dude from Frye Festival Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarterBlue Posted July 3, 2020 Author Report Share Posted July 3, 2020 2 hours ago, imaGoodBoyNow said: At this point I’m convinced CEO from NKLA is same dude from Frye Festival It's really hard to say. The guy that controlled the company he reversed merged into was an Auto stock analyst for over 20 years. The fact he agreed to the merger which gave NKLA access to over $200 mn in cash, says he believes in the NKLA CEO. Time will tell. The bottom line is that in normal market times, this company would be at least 18 months to 36 months away from going public. The stock had really formed a very tight base between $65 and $70. For that kind of company that had run up so fast to do that looked promising. However, its action the last two trading days has been suspect. Can this just be a shakeout? Sure. But with a stock like this it is prudent to draw a line in the sand. I would tolerate it breaking $50, but not staying below that number overnight. I would rather salvage $6k of the $12 I sunk into it than see the stock drift back to the $30s or below and the options become essentially worthless. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSFBfan Posted July 4, 2020 Report Share Posted July 4, 2020 https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.forbes.com/sites/sergeiklebnikov/2020/07/03/stocks-are-rallying-too-much-on-vaccine-news-says-this-market-expert/amp/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
imaGoodBoyNow Posted July 4, 2020 Report Share Posted July 4, 2020 11 hours ago, HSFBfan said: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.forbes.com/sites/sergeiklebnikov/2020/07/03/stocks-are-rallying-too-much-on-vaccine-news-says-this-market-expert/amp/ I doubt Darter is interested, if you wanna research this company It’s a universal charging station 🚉 for all makers of Electric Vehicles ,, over 15,000 charging stations might be worth the risk, especially with Electric Vehicles starting to be in high demand Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSFBfan Posted July 4, 2020 Report Share Posted July 4, 2020 1 minute ago, imaGoodBoyNow said: I doubt Darter is interested, if you wanna research this company down 33% over 5 years. Doesnt look to be going anywhere This article states you will have to wait years to make a profit https://www.google.com/amp/s/seekingalpha.com/amp/article/4356717-blink-is-triple-triple-digit-sales-growth 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.