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3 minutes ago, DarterBlue said:

George Carlin was an awesome comedian an a great social commentator. Nuff respect for him. May he Rest in Peace!

Absolutely. He was very intelligent man who made real life situations into jokes 

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I found video of @DarterBlue  as a small child. 😂     

Today’s market action was significant. Based on the criteria I use, a buy (go long) signal was flashed loud and clear. Now to be precise, I am an intermediate term trader. I am looking to make money o

Well shit Darter, why didn’t you warn me not to buy penny stocks 

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15 minutes ago, DarterBlue said:

A lost of questionable money is swishing around the world. Much of it is drug money; other sources include money stolen by corrupt government officials. Also prominent is money that is being funneled from high tax countries, as well as money seeking more stable homes. It's a hard job protecting your wealth these days! LOL

Deutsche Bank, JPMorgan lead drop in financial shares amid report the banks moved suspicious funds

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/09/21/deutsche-bank-jpmorgan-lead-drop-in-financial-shares-amid-report-the-banks-moved-suspicious-funds.html

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29 minutes ago, HSFBfan said:

Deutsche Bank, JPMorgan lead drop in financial shares amid report the banks moved suspicious funds

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/09/21/deutsche-bank-jpmorgan-lead-drop-in-financial-shares-amid-report-the-banks-moved-suspicious-funds.html

Deutsche has been implicated in laundering Eastern European money in the past. It is a stock I would be very careful owning. 

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On 9/20/2020 at 9:53 PM, DarterBlue said:

Choice of Vehicle: As I have indicated, the weight of the evidence now points to a change in direction for the broad market. After doing my research, I have decided that the two vehicles of choice will be:

28 Contracts of the QQQ Puts, strike 261, January 2021 expiration

27 Contracts of the MDY Puts, strike 335, January 2021 expiration

Based on the current bid/ask relationship for these put contracts, the approximate cost of these options is about $100,000 in total of which about $49,500 is the estimated cost of the QQQ Puts and $50,500, the estimated cost of the MDY Puts. 

Today, between 1 pm and 1:20 pm I took the following action:

28 QQQ PUTS, strike 261, January 2021 at prices ranging from $17.40 to $17.70
26 MDY PUTS, strike 330, January 2021 at prices ranging from $20.40 to $20.70
110 PSQ NASDAQ 100 inverse ETF at market
50 MYY S&P MID Cap inverse ETF at market

Total money spent $103,049.62

The deed is done, the money committed. Now I sit back and see if I am correct. 

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1 hour ago, imaGoodBoyNow said:

Don’t be a Bear 🐻 Darter

I am. The deed is done. Time will prove me right or wrong. Either way, if I am proven wrong, I will take the loss quickly before it destroys me. If I am right I will let the profits run. 

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1 hour ago, imaGoodBoyNow said:

Don’t be a Bear 🐻 Darter

To me, I am always market neutral. I let the action in relation to the indicators I use drive me. I see myself making money whenever there is a pronounced trend up or down. The bear side is a bit more difficult because bear markets are more volatile than bull markets. So you have to adjust for that in the position size and in the amount of volatility you stomach. 

At the end of the day, I am equally happy to make money on either side of the ledger. It does not bother me at all either way. In bear markets I distinguish myself by losing little and often gaining while most investors take from at 10 - 50% or more haircut. In bull markets it is harder to distinguish myself since most people are making or at least not losing money. 

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Stocks closed broadly higher and near day highs on significantly lower volume. The range was from a gain of .32% on the NYSE to 1.88% on the NASDAQ 100. Despite the big gains the breadth was not very impressive. On the NYSE, advancing stocks led 17-13 on the NYSE while on the NASDAQ, advancing and declining stocks were tied. Normally, when the gains are impressive breadth is much better than this. How do I view the action today? Not that great. On the positive side, stocks closed at or near day highs and the gains were significant. However, on the negative side, volume contracted compared with Monday and breadth was not very good. It was a narrow advance. To me this smacked as a bounce off oversold conditions for primarily the big NASDAQ techs. I think the burden of proof that the selling is over is squarely with the bulls.

Today, I took a significant short position to the tune of $103,049.62. Most of the position was in the QQQ, January 2021, $261 puts and the MDY, January 2021, $330 puts. A much smaller position was taken in two inverse ETFs in the QQQ and MDY. At day’s close my shorts are off to a bad start, down just over $6,000. Despite this, I made $418 on the day due to big gains of $4,343 on ZM or 5.15% and $2,237 or 4.75% in DHI. NEM had a negligible loss of $147 or .3% on the day. Clearly, I could have gotten better prices on the PUTs, particularly on the QQQs, which gained about 110 points after I bought the puts. Though off to a bad start, I am reasonably optimistic that the day’s rally will not be sustained for long. Of course, being primarily a technician, if I a wrong, I will exit the short positions in due course. I have my exit line drawn in the sand and will not waiver if we reach it.

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Stocks closed broadly lower on much higher volume. They also closed at or just above day lows. Notably, though, they did not sink to the intraday lows of Monday. They did take out the lows of last Friday and yesterday. At the close, the range of losses was from 1.92% on the DOW to 3.16% on the NASDAQ 100. Losing stocks led by margins of 9-1 on the NYSE and nearly 6-1 on the NASDAQ. It was a very bad day. Stocks went from being mixed to mildly down at the open to being down big across the board. In the process, all of yesterday’s gains were erased with a lot of room to spare. And, while Monday’s gains were not breached, they are within striking distance. There was really no solace for the bulls that the weakness we have seen since the fourth trading day in September is about to abate. While it is not clear yet whether we are in the second bear market of they year, the odds certainly seem to be heading rapidly in that direction.

On the day, I was up, $16,623.06 or 2.71%. On the long side, I had one winner in ZM which was up 1.6% but had been up over 6% earlier on. Both NEM and DHI were crushed losing well over 4% each. However, the PUT options more than made up for those losses as those positions were up approximately $20,000 on the day. They are now both in the black after being in the red yesterday. A bounce by the averages would not be surprising tomorrow as we are now well oversold on the McClennan Oscillator. However, further weakness instead could be indicative of free fall. It should be a very interesting day.

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Fighting to keep on its feet: The market is like a boxer struggling to stay on its feet with 2 minutes left in the round. It could survive, but the odds don't favor it doing so. Today both the DOW and S&P 500 came very close to taking out the lows made intraday Monday which would be the lows for this correction. The NASDAQ indices on the other hand are over 100 points away from doing so. Another weak day tomorrow would just about spell doom for those that think this is just a correction.

So, if this is a bear market, how low do I see it going? I never pick price targets on the downside or on the upside. It's a fool's game to do so. Suffice it to say that it could be very deep as I am leaning towards a contested election result in November and a bitter fight by both participants as POTUS will not leave 1600 Pennsylvania without a battle to stay in power. Stocks will not bottom in that kind of environment. If I am right, I will clean up on the options play. If I am wrong, I will take my losses while they are manageable and either get flat or reverse course and go long again. 

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And then there were two: At about 10:30 am, I sold 660 shares of DHI at various prices. Proceeds from the sale amounted to $47,380 on an original cost basis of $47,577 for a loss on the trade of $197. DHI is a very good company whose stock will likely go higher once the market goes into an uptrend. However, in keeping with my bearish thesis, now is not the time to be long substantial positions. With that sale, I have 180 ZM and 668 NEM. My other positions are short via primarily PUT Options on the QQQ and MDY. I also own a small position in the inverse ETFs of these two. 

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After being all over the place, stocks closed broadly higher on higher volume. On the surface, this sounds just great. Markets up, supported by institutional buying. Not so fast. While the day was not negative, it was far from positive. It was a day when the bulls and the bears were locked in an intense battle. When the smoke cleared, they had played more or less to a draw. At the close, the range of gains was from .01% on the MID Cap index to .58% on the NASDAQ 100. As would be expected from this range, given the narrow nature of the best index, losing stocks led by margins of 15-14 on the NYSE and 4-3 on the NYSE (lack of breadth was negative). So here is my take. Shortly after the open, most of the headline indices went down to or very close to the lows of Monday. But they held and the indices rallied off these lows (this was a positive). The rally lasted roughly from around 11 am till around 2 pm. Then the indices started selling off again. In fact, midway though the final hour, the indices all went negative for all of about ten minutes (failure to hold good gains was a negative). However, in the final 25 minutes stocks bounced back from the negative numbers to close modestly higher.  

I had a bad day losing $7,509 or 1.19%. The biggest contributor to my losses was ZM which gave up 7% and accounted for $6,339 of the losses. My put positions on the MID and QQQ surrendered $2,322, while NEM gained 2% or $815. Note that I got out of DHI today at about 10:35. I made about $400 on it today, but lost $197 on this trade. It was an inconsequential loss. I think the stock will do fine when the market gets better. But I expect the market to get significantly worse before they bottom. Hence the sale. ZM was due for a bad day. It was bad from the get go regardless of whether the indices were advancing or contracting. For now, I am not concerned, but I will watch it out of the corner of my eye. So, now I am down to two longs (ZM and NEM), coupled with a big short position.  

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2 minutes ago, HSFBfan said:

Westpac, one of Australia's largest banks, hit with record $920 million penalty over money laundering scandal

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/09/24/investing/westpac-fine-australia-intl-hnk/index.html

I heard that on the radio this morning. Like 23 million cases over a number of years. This is a real problem internationally. 

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Just now, DarterBlue said:

I heard that on the radio this morning. Like 23 million cases over a number of years. This is a real problem internationally. 

money laundering seems to be going around this past week or so

Time for some bankers and such to go to jail 

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3 minutes ago, DarterBlue said:

Where did they get that kind of cash?

Selling their places in NYC and buying houses in NJ and such. My brother just bought a townhouse in NJ 

Its a buying frenzy around here 

You could sell ur house within 24 hours around here 

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49 minutes ago, HSFBfan said:

Selling their places in NYC and buying houses in NJ and such. My brother just bought a townhouse in NJ 

Its a buying frenzy around here 

You could sell ur house within 24 hours around here 

That works for tristate. But I don't get the rest of the country. It's not like housing markets have been very strong in the Southeast. Never really recovered from the collapse of the housing bubble. 

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