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Week 17 pick ems. *Thursday game*


Cossacks
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1 hour ago, SeaShells21 said:

I’m so sorry ☹️

I’d be just happy with a Christmas bear.74D955DF-D6F9-4F3A-9CE7-1C0439AF17F3.thumb.jpeg.e1934fd3a7cedda92aaebf982e947341.jpeg

I volunteered for this... 

 

She's been holding it down and helping me... 

 

I havent been going into great detail but this year has been... 

 

A real kick in the balls... 

 

And she's been with me through Thick and thin... 

 

Hot and cold

 

Sad and Happy... 

 

And she's never asked me for shit other than to stop leaving the toilet seat up... and drinking outta the OJ jug... 

 

In the long run this aint nothing... 

 

 

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On 12/13/2021 at 3:31 PM, Cossacks said:

 

Since there are 7 jockeying for the final top 5 positions and some guys may want some strategy, @HawgGoneIthas graciously agreed to let you DM your picks to him and he will post them after the Friday deadline. 

 

I'd like to order this ring for getting the most picks right (year total)  in the pickem.

 

 

ring.jpg

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14 minutes ago, Sammyswordsman said:

 

What you talking 'bout holmes?  We having a parade.

 

pick em.pdf 81.13 kB · 3 downloads

It’s a confidence pick em, has been from day one. Total wins don’t matter in a confidence pick em, nobody cares. That’s like a baseball team saying, sure we lost, but we had more extra base hits. 😂

That’s the whole point, you need to have picking savy and balls, not just one. 😂

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40 minutes ago, Cossacks said:

It’s a confidence pick em, has been from day one. Total wins don’t matter in a confidence pick em, nobody cares. That’s like a baseball team saying, sure we lost, but we had more extra base hits. 😂

That’s the whole point, you need to have picking savy and balls, not just one. 😂

Whatever.  I still picked the most winning teams no matter how you want to spin it.

Not saying I am the "confidence" pick em winner.  Congrats to Dntn for that great job.

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5 minutes ago, Wosinc said:

This is pretty neat.

How did you work the confidence part into the Massey, Consensus, Calpreps, etc. ratings?  I’m pretty sure they don’t weight their picks.

Massey provides projected win%. I simply weighted those 1-10 and used mean projected score differential to break ties. Massey was at a slight disadvantage because there were a handful of games throughout the year that weren't listed on his site (I count 3 going back over all the weeks - and one that I had to fudge a bit because the teams were there but the matchup was on a Sunday - some SJC WCAC game in November I think). For the missing games, I just simply weighted them as 1 and then counted them as a loss for Massey (his fault that his data was incomplete).

CalPreps provides projected scores but not projected win%. I weighted the matchups based on score differential and broke ties based on the team ratings differential. CalPreps only provided "official "projections starting October 1, so for the 6-7 weeks I had to wing it a bit with them (and partially explains their poor showing). I screwed up a bit by forgetting that the "Project a Matchup" tool was a thing for the first few weeks (which allows you to create "unofficial" projections even for the current year), so in the very beginning it was based strictly on ratings differential but then switched over once I remembered and then finally switched over to their "official" projections after Oct 1.

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4 minutes ago, dntn31 said:

CalPreps provides projected scores but not projected win%. I weighted the matchups based on score differential and broke ties based on the team ratings differential. CalPreps only provided "official "projections starting October 1, so for the 6-7 weeks I had to wing it a bit with them (and partially explains their poor showing). I screwed up a bit by forgetting that the "Project a Matchup" tool was a thing for the first few weeks (which allows you to create "unofficial" projections even for the current year), so in the very beginning it was based strictly on ratings differential but then switched over once I remembered and then finally switched over to their "official" projections after Oct 1.

Also, FWIW, CalPreps out-picked everybody Week 9 forward. 😂

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