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2 minutes ago, golfaddict1 said:

With so little connect the dots, imho every game is meaningful and will and should be scrutinized.  The better opponents and performances will take care of itself, but an opening game between two OOS powers matters for national ratings and impacts much of the ratings between states.   

I'm still not sure what Massey does based on his treatise.

But the St. Frances Academy game is super important in evaluating STA more so than Atlantic or Miramar. Hence no extra weight should be given to the latter.

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2 minutes ago, Atticus Finch said:

I'm still not sure what Massey does based on his treatise.

But the St. Frances Academy game is super important in evaluating STA than Atlantic or Miramar. Hence no extra weight should be given to the latter.

Spock would have a field day with both Massey and Freeman rating Venice #1 in FL... illogical.   

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1 hour ago, Sammyswordsman said:

Who would you put as #1 in Fla?  Central?

Central is always dangerous... but the SJB win was too convincing imo.  They played BG to the end tight and took it to AHP later in the game.  SJB multiple scores loss... gotta put on the hypothetical cap, does STA lose by that much vs national powerhouse SJB?  I doubt it.   They needed the BG win to have a say imo.  Two best opponents and two losses.  Also had a tight game with MNW, before pummeling them later on. 

Venice had two close games, taking a loss at home to Gibbons and winning another on a missed PAT by Cocoa late.  That's two quality FL opponents with little to no separation.   Gibbons beat Venice and Cocoa (close both) so advantage Gibbons vs Venice on the high end.   Gibbons lost convincingly to STA and a close loss to AHP... Venice lost at home to the one quality Broward school they faced.  Gibbons takes out Venice and Gibbons doesn't make this list.  

Jesuit didn't lose and has the STA W and blowout of MNW in the playoffs to validate that STA didn't lose to Cooper City 2011 image.  They struggled in the final, but got the job done.   Resume wise, limited on the top end but they did their job.  They didn't dominate weaker foes like they should have though.  They got STA at home with rain... that's as good a shot as you're gunna get vs. STA's offensive style of game plan and limited looks.   Separation vs MNW isn't going to flatter the other teams here.  Central had one blowout also with them, but not two.  

IMG?  OK not FL but even if so... loss to SFA and played a few schools tighter than expected.   But head to head vs FL opponents?  Not seeing a good result for most, but I don't see STA losing by as much as Central lost to SJB.  Frankly, looking at the top end results,  STA on paper would have had a decent shot this season.  

STA has the SFA W, but lost to Jesuit.   They handled Gibbons easily, but struggled with Dillard.  Also won vs. AHP.  

Chaminade took out a quality Buford program on the road and a feisty Highlands bunch.  But they lost to AHP.  

So who was #1?   I'd drop it down to 3... Jesuit, STA and Chaminade.  Neutral site round robin end of season?  Central I'd give a shot to beat all 3, but they didn't convert on the two OOS tilts and STA handled SFA, granted at home but they got a marquee national power win.  

I think Jesuit would fade if they had to play two neutral site powers in a row, while STA and Chaminade I think could win both games.   Man, it's tough.  Each team has pros and cons.  But I'd place STA and Chaminade as top 2 with MC and Jesuit battling for the 3 spot.  Gibbons couldn't beat STA or AHP, but Jesuit got STA.  This is why I have Jesuit in the final 3.  Marquee win is paramount and STA gave them a state and national marquee win.   Good for them to take the game.   They sure converted for a magical season and high national rating/ranking.  

So, STA and Chaminade... with MC still in my ear lol.  Let Calpreps predict a game choose it :)  

OK STA vs Chaminade head to head...  for the state title all classes.   The winner is ___________________  whomever CP and Massey choose!   Not good enough?   I'm very biased of course.   Would be a solid matchup, but STA I think prevails.  

Had it been MC vs STA?  Well MC needed that PK to not slip in Vegas.   I think that slip is the difference between choosing STA and MC to be honest.   It's very close this year in FL, an interesting season that could have been really something special had the playoff format include one or two less classes.   We did get MC vs. AHP early though in the playoffs.  

 

 

 

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8 minutes ago, golfaddict1 said:

Central is always dangerous... but the SJB win was too convincing imo.  They played BG to the end tight and took it to AHP later in the game.  SJB multiple scores loss... gotta put on the hypothetical cap, does STA lose by that much vs national powerhouse SJB?  I doubt it.   They needed the BG win to have a say imo.  Two best opponents and two losses.  Also had a tight game with MNW, before pummeling them later on. 

Venice had two close games, taking a loss at home to Gibbons and winning another on a missed PAT by Cocoa late.  That's two quality FL opponents with little to no separation.   Gibbons beat Venice and Cocoa (close both) so advantage Gibbons vs Venice on the high end.   Gibbons lost convincingly to STA and a close loss to AHP... Venice lost at home to the one quality Broward school they faced.  Gibbons takes out Venice and Gibbons doesn't make this list.  

Jesuit didn't lose and has the STA W and blowout of MNW in the playoffs to validate that STA didn't lose to Cooper City 2011 image.  They struggled in the final, but got the job done.   Resume wise, limited on the top end but they did their job.  They didn't dominate weaker foes like they should have though.  They got STA at home with rain... that's as good a shot as you're gunna get vs. STA's offensive style of game plan and limited looks.   Separation vs MNW isn't going to flatter the other teams here.  Central had one blowout also with them, but not two.  

IMG?  OK not FL but even if so... loss to SFA and played a few schools tighter than expected.   But head to head vs FL opponents?  Not seeing a good result for most, but I don't see STA losing by as much as Central lost to SJB.  Frankly, looking at the top end results,  STA on paper would have had a decent shot this season.  

STA has the SFA W, but lost to Jesuit.   They handled Gibbons easily, but struggled with Dillard.  Also won vs. AHP.  

Chaminade took out a quality Buford program on the road and a feisty Highlands bunch.  But they lost to AHP.  

So who was #1?   I'd drop it down to 3... Jesuit, STA and Chaminade.  Neutral site round robin end of season?  Central I'd give a shot to beat all 3, but they didn't convert on the two OOS tilts and STA handled SFA, granted at home but they got a marquee national power win.  

I think Jesuit would fade if they had to play two neutral site powers in a row, while STA and Chaminade I think could win both games.   Man, it's tough.  Each team has pros and cons.  But I'd place STA and Chaminade as top 2 with MC and Jesuit battling for the 3 spot.  Gibbons couldn't beat STA or AHP, but Jesuit got STA.  This is why I have Jesuit in the final 3.  Marquee win is paramount and STA gave them a state and national marquee win.   Good for them to take the game.   They sure converted for a magical season and high national rating/ranking.  

So, STA and Chaminade... with MC still in my ear lol.  Let Calpreps predict a game choose it :)  

OK STA vs Chaminade head to head...  for the state title all classes.   The winner is ___________________  whomever CP and Massey choose!   Not good enough?   I'm very biased of course.   Would be a solid matchup, but STA I think prevails.  

Had it been MC vs STA?  Well MC needed that PK to not slip in Vegas.   I think that slip is the difference between choosing STA and MC to be honest.   It's very close this year in FL, an interesting season that could have been really something special had the playoff format include one or two less classes.   We did get MC vs. AHP early though in the playoffs.  

 

 

 

Well thought out explanation, but even you leave it as a toss up.   Unless I am missing something, the only three teams not to lose to a Fla team were Jesuit, Venice and Central.   

competing in Fla, those would be the three teams in the discussion.

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31 minutes ago, dntn31 said:

They really should have won that game...

672593931_Screenshot2021-12-21153545.thumb.png.aaac5b335ee05d60496ed78211a976c9.png

Yea some freaky shit going on with FG attempts at that field vs FL powers.  
STA’s miss on Superfly Bolden’s block while smashing into the LS, resulted in a crossbar landing and drop off.  
WTF was my initial reaction and it hasn’t changed in over 5 years lol.  STA has lost games through the years in some special ways.  
 

I was expecting Dillard (round 2 matchup in the season) in the playoffs with STA.  That was a bit of a bummer.  

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9 minutes ago, golfaddict1 said:

Yea some freaky shit going on with FG attempts at that field vs FL powers.  
STA’s miss on Superfly Bolden’s block while smashing into the LS, resulted in a crossbar landing and drop off.  
WTF was my initial reaction and it hasn’t changed in over 5 years lol.  STA has lost games through the years in some special ways.  

The Central/Gorman game was in Florida. The STA/Gorman game was in Nevada. Point taken though. Missed FGs were big in SJB/STA as well.

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35 minutes ago, Sammyswordsman said:

Well thought out explanation, but even you leave it as a toss up.   Unless I am missing something, the only three teams not to lose to a Fla team were Jesuit, Venice and Central.   

competing in Fla, those would be the three teams in the discussion.

Imo gotta use sos of entire season.  
Central didn’t face a strong FL opponent and barely escaped MNW in their first of two rounds.  Jesuit has a marquee win but no other real high quality opponent but granted, they beat MNW handily.  

I have no issue with Jesuit being chosen or Chaminade and had MC split their 2 OOS games, then as well.  

But Venice?  The CP sweet spot is cranking wins and especially playoff wins on teams with 45-55 ratings so you can max out on a high rating plus the playoff boost.   I’m not buying Venice.  Their marquee win was a missed PAT by Cocoa and Cocoa was a fine team this season… but that’s not tops in state.  You need a wow victory.  A game that shows strength vs strength.  Venice falls short.  Great season, aided by being in 8A (sounds funny the largest class, and totally irrelevant also in FL).  

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3 minutes ago, golfaddict1 said:

Imo gotta use sos of entire season.  
Central didn’t face a strong FL opponent and barely escaped MNW in their first of two rounds.  Jesuit has a marquee win but no other real high quality opponent but granted, they beat MNW handily.  

I have no issue with Jesuit being chosen or Chaminade and had MC split their 2 OOS games, then as well.  

But Venice?  The CP sweet spot is cranking wins and especially playoff wins on teams with 45-55 ratings so you can max out on a high rating plus the playoff boost.   I’m not buying Venice.  Their marquee win was a missed PAT by Cocoa and Cocoa was a fine team this season… but that’s not tops in state.  You need a wow victory.  A game that shows strength vs strength.  Venice falls short.  Great season, aided by being in 8A (sounds funny the largest class, and totally irrelevant also in FL).  

I agree.  Venice sounds like the Folsom of Florida

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1 hour ago, golfaddict1 said:

Central is always dangerous... but the SJB win was too convincing imo.  They played BG to the end tight and took it to AHP later in the game.  SJB multiple scores loss... gotta put on the hypothetical cap, does STA lose by that much vs national powerhouse SJB?  I doubt it.   They needed the BG win to have a say imo.  Two best opponents and two losses.  Also had a tight game with MNW, before pummeling them later on. 

Venice had two close games, taking a loss at home to Gibbons and winning another on a missed PAT by Cocoa late.  That's two quality FL opponents with little to no separation.   Gibbons beat Venice and Cocoa (close both) so advantage Gibbons vs Venice on the high end.   Gibbons lost convincingly to STA and a close loss to AHP... Venice lost at home to the one quality Broward school they faced.  Gibbons takes out Venice and Gibbons doesn't make this list.  

Jesuit didn't lose and has the STA W and blowout of MNW in the playoffs to validate that STA didn't lose to Cooper City 2011 image.  They struggled in the final, but got the job done.   Resume wise, limited on the top end but they did their job.  They didn't dominate weaker foes like they should have though.  They got STA at home with rain... that's as good a shot as you're gunna get vs. STA's offensive style of game plan and limited looks.   Separation vs MNW isn't going to flatter the other teams here.  Central had one blowout also with them, but not two.  

IMG?  OK not FL but even if so... loss to SFA and played a few schools tighter than expected.   But head to head vs FL opponents?  Not seeing a good result for most, but I don't see STA losing by as much as Central lost to SJB.  Frankly, looking at the top end results,  STA on paper would have had a decent shot this season.  

STA has the SFA W, but lost to Jesuit.   They handled Gibbons easily, but struggled with Dillard.  Also won vs. AHP.  

Chaminade took out a quality Buford program on the road and a feisty Highlands bunch.  But they lost to AHP.  

So who was #1?   I'd drop it down to 3... Jesuit, STA and Chaminade.  Neutral site round robin end of season?  Central I'd give a shot to beat all 3, but they didn't convert on the two OOS tilts and STA handled SFA, granted at home but they got a marquee national power win.  

I think Jesuit would fade if they had to play two neutral site powers in a row, while STA and Chaminade I think could win both games.   Man, it's tough.  Each team has pros and cons.  But I'd place STA and Chaminade as top 2 with MC and Jesuit battling for the 3 spot.  Gibbons couldn't beat STA or AHP, but Jesuit got STA.  This is why I have Jesuit in the final 3.  Marquee win is paramount and STA gave them a state and national marquee win.   Good for them to take the game.   They sure converted for a magical season and high national rating/ranking.  

So, STA and Chaminade... with MC still in my ear lol.  Let Calpreps predict a game choose it :)  

OK STA vs Chaminade head to head...  for the state title all classes.   The winner is ___________________  whomever CP and Massey choose!   Not good enough?   I'm very biased of course.   Would be a solid matchup, but STA I think prevails.  

Had it been MC vs STA?  Well MC needed that PK to not slip in Vegas.   I think that slip is the difference between choosing STA and MC to be honest.   It's very close this year in FL, an interesting season that could have been really something special had the playoff format include one or two less classes.   We did get MC vs. AHP early though in the playoffs.  

 

 

 

Respect!

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57 minutes ago, dntn31 said:

The Central/Gorman game was in Florida. The STA/Gorman game was in Nevada. Point taken though. Missed FGs were big in SJB/STA as well.

Yes.  SJB missed a quality opportunity.  
 

54 minutes ago, golfaddict1 said:

Ah, my bad.  That one got by the goalie.
So BG is the common theme, not geocode. Ha.  

That reduces MC strength in my prior post.  Not winning in FL and the marquee W opportunity dropped.  

I’m more comfortable with the top 3 opinion of STA, Chaminade and Jesuit now.  

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5 hours ago, golfaddict1 said:

It's a fact regarding Freeman's .2 rule.   

STA could never pass Jesuit without Jesuit losing a game.  Other algorithms don't have that rule.  Human choice.  @Cal 14can confirm this with inside knowledge.  Trust us.  It's a fact.  

The 0.2 rule exists.  If Team A loses to Team B, who is undefeated, Team A cannot overtake Team B in the normal ratings.  This is why DLS sat behind St. Francis for nearly the entire year.  That said, there were times that SF was more than 0.2 ahead of DLS, but 0.2 is the minimum.

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5 hours ago, golfaddict1 said:

I would agree as well... @Cal 14 will let us know when he's available.  

Again, using the SF-DLS scenario, those who used the 'project a matchup' tool saw that DLS was predicted to win, despite having the lower rating.  Really, this sort of thing happens a fair amount of time if two teams' ratings are very close.  Really, any gap of < 5 points should largely be considered a toss-up.

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On 12/21/2021 at 12:33 PM, dntn31 said:

A few things I'm not 100% sure on is if that 0.2 ceiling is determined:

1) Does CalPreps use the "published" ratings or the "prediction" ratings (I'm guessing projection ratings)?

2) Does CalPreps solely use the ratings before the game was played or does it ever change if CalPreps later changes who it deems to be the stronger team.

@Cal 14 do you happen to know?

I'm not sure I completely understand the questions, but I'll try to give an answer to what I think it is. 

 

The 0.2 only exists in the published ratings. 

The prediction ratings could actually be multi-faceted.  Since the predictions are not only based on the MoV, but rather the actual score, there could be separate offensive and defensive ratings against their respective opposing defenses and offenses.  I don't think these are nearly as tied to the 31-point blowout rule as the regular ratings.  I feel they are a better indication of what the overall system really thinks of the teams.

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19 hours ago, Cal 14 said:

The 0.2 rule exists.  If Team A loses to Team B, who is undefeated, Team A cannot overtake Team B in the normal ratings.  This is why DLS sat behind St. Francis for nearly the entire year.  That said, there were times that SF was more than 0.2 ahead of DLS, but 0.2 is the minimum.

@golfaddict1 and @dntn31, I'm going to have to adjust this a little.  It appears that Tampa Jesuit is only 0.1 higher than St. Thomas Aquinas (69.7 vs 69.6).

Now, only 1 decimal spot is used, so the actual gap may very well be 1.5 or something like that.  It's entirely possible that STA is really 69.55 and TBJ is 69.74, but there is no way for us to tell.

That said, the concept remains the same... an undefeated team must remain higher than a team they've defeated, by whatever margin is actually used.

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17 hours ago, Cal 14 said:

@golfaddict1 and @dntn31, I'm going to have to adjust this a little.  It appears that Tampa Jesuit is only 0.1 higher than St. Thomas Aquinas (69.7 vs 69.6).

Now, only 1 decimal spot is used, so the actual gap may very well be 1.5 or something like that.  It's entirely possible that STA is really 69.55 and TBJ is 69.74, but there is no way for us to tell.

That said, the concept remains the same... an undefeated team must remain higher than a team they've defeated, by whatever margin is actually used.

I had a good feeling about the Jesuit game vs MNW.   They struggled in the final, but the cream rises to the top and they finished with a nice comeback and title. 

FL had a very interesting season at the top.  A handful of teams (maybe 6?) in a poll would probably get votes and if IMG was included, my guess they wouldn’t have the most votes.  
 

Crazy to see how IMG rates in FL and that Venice is on top (imho, I get why but I disagree with the notion of Venice resume being a number 1 without the sweet spot of beating teams they should that are somehow rated in the 100-200 range with a helping of playoff boost).  


 

 

 

 

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