Middletown DE 73.8 SOS #1 IN THE COUNTRY

[OldTerrapin]

@73.8 has the highest strength of schedule rating in the country per Max/Cal Preps.. lol

 

http://calpreps.com/2022/ratings/National_all25.htm

 

http://calpreps.com/2022/ratings/Delaware_all.htm

 

 

 

 

[golfaddict1]

There’s a new novelty tool at CP with higher sos numbers.  Their new tool is similar to what Massey does with a power rating.  

11-man projection ratings is the header name.  

As the season progresses, will be interesting to see how it looks compared to the standard rating system.  
 

 

 

[OldTerrapin]

8 minutes ago, golfaddict1 said:

There’s a new novelty tool at CP with higher sos numbers.  Their new tool is similar to what Massey does with a power rating.  

11-man projection ratings is the header name.  

As the season progresses, will be interesting to see how it looks compared to the standard rating system.  
 

 

 

 

It's high because their coach is an idiot and scheduled #6 IMG, #12 SJC and #156 Massillon all on the road. Along with the couple decent DE teams they play.. 

[FreeBird]

24 minutes ago, OldTerrapin said:

 

It's high because their coach is an idiot and scheduled #6 IMG, #12 SJC and #156 Massillon all on the road. Along with the couple decent DE teams they play.. 

is he an idiot tho????

[OldTerrapin]

8 minutes ago, FreeBird said:

is he an idiot tho????

 

They didn't get any money at least not any the program could keep. Just some travel expenses. They still have to fundraiser for the FL trip.. No FLO dough for them. FLO not showing any of the games.  Massillon wasn't set up by the Jersey Fool. They (Massillon) were advertising on the Game Needed boards in PA, DE and NJ with the message willing to pay travel stipend.  Taking the Massillon game is reasonable and a fun place to visit and play a game. The other two just dumb.

[golfaddict1]

https://highschoolfootballamerica.com/mater-dei-solidifies-to-hold-on-no-1-ranking-in-hsfa-300-national-high-school-football-rankings/
 

I noticed that Jeff Fisher is sharing his algorithm with secret sauce to 300 rating/ranking.  I wanted this for several years back when I was toying with my Abby Normal 🧠  power rating creation…utilizing CP, Massey and @dntn31comp 25 as guides.  
 

I have zero programmer skills.  It’s a pita to do… appreciate any more bored spare time brethren than me to help.  🏳 

But I’ll try to do the comp 25 teams at least and share.  @Ga96instead of counting transfers, how about helping me tabulate.  😂 

[dntn31]

7 minutes ago, golfaddict1 said:

https://highschoolfootballamerica.com/mater-dei-solidifies-to-hold-on-no-1-ranking-in-hsfa-300-national-high-school-football-rankings/
 

I noticed that Jeff Fisher is sharing his algorithm with secret sauce to 300 rating/ranking.  I wanted this for several years back when I was toying with my Abby Normal 🧠  power rating creation…utilizing CP, Massey and @dntn31comp 25 as guides.  
 

I have zero programmer skills.  It’s a pita to do… appreciate any more bored spare time brethren than me to help.  🏳 

But I’ll try to do the comp 25 teams at least and share.  @Ga96instead of counting transfers, how about helping me tabulate.  😂 

After poll watching about as closely as anyone over the past decade, and having my own background in Information and Computer Science, I still maintain that Fisher's "proprietary algorithm" is just him or a flunky typing something into Excel or Word. Comparing the volatility of actual computer-based polls (CalPreps and Massey) to HSFA is night and day. If it does happen to be anything more sophisticated, there's no way it's backed by anything rigorous or even tangential to real data science.

[OldTerrapin]

MIddletown ranked #1 SOS in Massey too.. lol

 

69.32

https://masseyratings.com/hsf/ratings

https://masseyratings.com/hsf2022/delaware/ratings

 

[golfaddict1]

17 minutes ago, dntn31 said:

After poll watching about as closely as anyone over the past decade, and having my own background in Information and Computer Science, I still maintain that Fisher's "proprietary algorithm" is just him or a flunky typing something into Excel or Word. Comparing the volatility of actual computer-based polls (CalPreps and Massey) to HSFA is night and day. If it does happen to be anything more sophisticated, there's no way it's backed by anything rigorous or even tangential to real data science.

If I’m not mistaken, he starts with Massey’s foundation and adds criteria (or special sauce as he puts it or excel as you put it) 😂… either way, explanation is lacking for sure and his ratings/rankings look just as odd as them all (human or human scaled Spock) at times with wtf 😳 thoughts.  

[golfaddict1]

Massey starts with no data from the previous year as far as I know as far as roster info, while Freeman magnifies the roster and talent returning and tries to put out a good preseason novelty product.  Not all the schools provide roster and upcoming season data.  
 

I’m “assuming” that to this point of the season, CP > Massey.  Fisher is separate from them… I fully agree with @dntn31take.  
 

In the past, Freeman and Massey favored states that made me/us 😳.  I haven’t dissected state variances in a few years.   
 

@ECHS05, did you ever check Massey’s differentials back in the day?  His site offers pregame scores (not always in all regions).  If so, how did GA fare?  Similarly to Freeman?   I know you’ve been away for awhile, but what was your take on Massey’s novelty tool for GA HSFB years back and current in terms of scale strength?  Thx. 

[OldTerrapin]

10 minutes ago, golfaddict1 said:

Massey starts with no data from the previous year as far as I know as far as roster info, while Freeman magnifies the roster and talent returning and tries to put out a good preseason novelty product.  Not all the schools provide roster and upcoming season data.  
 

I’m “assuming” that to this point of the season, CP > Massey.  Fisher is separate from them… I fully agree with @dntn31take.  
 

In the past, Freeman and Massey favored states that made me/us 😳.  I haven’t dissected state variances in a few years.   
 

@ECHS05, did you ever check Massey’s differentials back in the day?  His site offers pregame scores (not always in all regions).  If so, how did GA fare?  Similarly to Freeman?   I know you’ve been away for awhile, but what was your take on Massey’s novelty tool for GA HSFB years back and current?  Thx. 

 

Massey starts with some carry over data from the previous year then dumps it after week 3 I believe

[golfaddict1]

5 minutes ago, OldTerrapin said:

 

Massey starts with some carry over data from the previous year then dumps it after week 3 I believe

I’m not in the know there, but as far as roster info, strength/weaknesses, returning key players etc.  I don’t think Massey brings anything (data) to the new year.  
@dntn31?  

[OldTerrapin]

3 minutes ago, golfaddict1 said:

I’m not in the know there, but as far as roster info, strength/weaknesses, returning key players etc.  I don’t think Massey brings anything to the new year.  
@dntn31?  

How do you generate preseason ratings?

The BCS compliant ratings do not use preseason information, so everyone starts at zero. A team's rating may look funny or fluctuate wildly until there is enough evidence to get a more precise measurement of the team's strength. As games are played, the computer gradually 'learns' and the cream rises to the top.

For the main version, preseason ratings compensate for the lack of data early in a given season. They give the computer a realistic starting point from which to evaluate teams that have played zero or few games. This limits dramatic changes that could be caused by isolated results not buffered by the context of other games.

The effect of the preseason ratings gradually diminishes each week. When every team has played a sufficient number of games to be accurately evalulated based on this year alone, the preseason bias will be phased out.

Preseason ratings are based on an extrapolation recent years' results, tuned to fit historical trends and regression to the mean. A team's future performance is expected to be consistent with the strength of the program, but sometimes there may be temporary spikes.

Other potentially significant indicators (ex. returning starters, coaching changes, and recruiting) are ignored. Therefore, preseason ratings should not be taken too seriously,

[golfaddict1]

4 minutes ago, OldTerrapin said:

The BCS compliant ratings do not use preseason information, so everyone starts at zero. A team's rating may look funny or fluctuate wildly until there is enough evidence to get a more precise measurement of the team's strength. As games are played, the computer gradually 'learns' and the cream rises to the top.

For the main version, preseason ratings compensate for the lack of data early in a given season. They give the computer a realistic starting point from which to evaluate teams that have played zero or few games. This limits dramatic changes that could be caused by isolated results not buffered by the context of other games.

The effect of the preseason ratings gradually diminishes each week. When every team has played a sufficient number of games to be accurately evalulated based on this year alone, the preseason bias will be phased out.

Preseason ratings are based on an extrapolation recent years' results, tuned to fit historical trends and regression to the mean. A team's future performance is expected to be consistent with the strength of the program, but sometimes there may be temporary spikes.

Other potentially significant indicators (ex. returning starters, coaching changes, and recruiting) are ignored. Therefore, preseason ratings should not be taken too seriously,

Makes sense but remember the key beginning… BCS 

Connect the dots BCS vs HSFB is quite different.  

[OldTerrapin]

2 minutes ago, golfaddict1 said:

Makes sense but remember the key beginning… BCS 

Connect the dots BCS vs HSFB is quite different.  

Massey ratings aren't BCS compliant. He is explaining the difference. Massey does do a preseason rating with historical data that phases out as games get played. 

[golfaddict1]

9 minutes ago, OldTerrapin said:

Massey ratings aren't BCS compliant. He is explaining the difference. Massey does do a preseason rating with historical data that phases out as games get played. 

He uses a 2 year rolling data system for OOS as I recall reading, which brings up the question is it right to use multiple years performance for a state scale upcoming season?  He does this because of such few connect the dots between OOS.  At least in the past, that’s how he rolled.  He may alter as Freeman does.  
 

Massey answered my email years back, but the communication stalled when I asked about state scaling.  

Like it or not, the more OOS games played, the better the algorithms will be. … and the “villain” imo is helping their product.  More OOS connect the dots = better product.  Imo. 
 

[OldTerrapin]

22 minutes ago, golfaddict1 said:

He uses a 2 year rolling data system for OOS as I recall reading, which brings up the question is it right to use multiple years performance for a state scale upcoming season?  He does this because of such few connect the dots between OOS.  At least in the past, that’s how he rolled.  He may alter as Freeman does.  
 

Massey answered my email years back, but the communication stalled when I asked about state scaling.  

Like it or not, the more OOS games played, the better the algorithms will be. … and the “villain” imo is helping their product.  More OOS connect the dots = better product.  Imo. 
 

Honestly I could care les about these ratings.. I just thought it was funny MT has the highest SOS..especially after all the hub ub of SFA has top schedule and 8000 miles blah blah blah.. They aren't even playing Hawaii now and the clown is still pushing that narrative...

[golfaddict1]

9 minutes ago, OldTerrapin said:

Honestly I could care les about these ratings.. I just thought it was funny MT has the highest SOS..especially after all the hub ub of SFA has top schedule and 8000 miles blah blah blah.. They aren't even playing Hawaii now and the clown is still pushing that narrative...

10-4.
I dig Algorithms/analytical research. I received part of my father’s brain.  

Big fan of both guys.  Like a true fanatic, I don’t like too much ridicule about the algorithms, but if I see something looks odd I’m not shy to point it out.     
 

Like Seinfeld’s position about Timmy (Diaz, Mets)  Fans can ridicule sarcastically and factually.     A gift we all have here.  Well most of us here.  Our LA fanatic needs to make fun of situations at times.  Roll with Burrow yesterday.  Have a laugh with the forum.  It’s sports!  

[chalmetteowl]

just my uneducated opinion, if you have the strongEST schedule out of 14 thousand teams, it's probably too strong and there's not a team out there that would succeed against that schedule

[MA Fan]

Iron so sharp they'll be kicked out of the playoffs for stabbing

[OldTerrapin]

27 minutes ago, MA Fan said:

Iron so sharp they'll be kicked out of the playoffs for stabbing

woof woof #ironsharpensiron woof woof #playthebest woof woof #getexposure woof woof.. oops #getexposed 

I watched the SCJ v MT game. SJC made MT look like a pee wee rec team. yelp yelp #302embarrasment.  They got two more beatdowns like this coming. Let's see what's left of them come playoff time

[golfaddict1]

1 hour ago, MA Fan said:

Iron so sharp they'll be kicked out of the playoffs for stabbing

The Sills Experience (10 year reunion) 

https://vault.si.com/vault/2012/08/27/just-a-national-football-powerhouse

2013 season, followed by infamous 2014… Sills broken leg game 3.  
 

Kudos to Sills for the dedication to switch positions (WR) and work at his craft to become a NFL roster player this season for the Giants.

 

 

[OldTerrapin]

1 hour ago, golfaddict1 said:

The Sills Experience (10 year reunion) 

https://vault.si.com/vault/2012/08/27/just-a-national-football-powerhouse

2013 season, followed by infamous 2014… Sills broken leg game 3.  
 

Kudos to Sills for the dedication to switch positions (WR) and work at his craft to become a NFL roster player this season for the Giants.

 

 

 Half the ECA team came back crippled after that Texas gauntlet they ran..ECA had players from MD, Philly, NJ and DE.  ECA bussed down there and stayed for 3 weeks at some old summer camp site .lol.. Lots of drama surrounding that whole ordeal at ECA.  That is also when SFA was made up of Baltimore City and Baltimore/Harford County academic ineligible transfers. Kids would transfer there for football season and when the tuition bills came they transferred back to their home school. lol..Pre Poggi but the current SFA coach was in charge then

[golfaddict1]

14 minutes ago, OldTerrapin said:

 Half he ECA team came back crippled after that Texas gauntlet they ran..ECA had players from MD, Philly, NJ and DE.  ECA bussed down there and stayed for 3 weeks at some old summer camp site down there.lol.. Lots of drama surrounding that whole ordeal at ECA.  That is also when SFA was made up of Baltimore City and Baltimore/Harford County academic ineligible transfers. Pre Poggi

Yea, SFA has had a nice run, but looking at those 2 years shown, ouch.  Poggi is/was a character.  

If I’m not mistaken, there’s a Dallas Jackson quote in the lengthy article above.   

Now the Red Lion school is tickling my brain. 

[MA Fan]

Thought of this thread when I saw this quote from the Martinsburg coach ahead of their game with Highland Springs tonight:

“We always say if you’re not getting better, you’re getting worse. We want to do things to make the program better and get the kids more exposure,” he said. “Take the Highland Springs game last year, that really put Murphy Clement on the map for teams like Old Dominion that didn’t recruit our kids before.

“Things like that, we’re definitely trying to do, but we have to be careful, too. We get messages all the time, I don’t think people understand it affects us in the standings if we lose games. So we look for schools about our size, public schools. We’re not on the same level as IMG or DeMatha — people all the time are telling us to play those teams and it’s just not what we can do.”

https://www.journal-news.net/journal-news/martinsburg-set-to-host-no-75-team-in-the-country-highland-springs/article_bc6a819d-8e8e-5108-993b-219af665eb82.html