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Ohio Week 9 Predictions and Discussions


OdbCle

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At the request of Coletrain, here is a little week 9 primer to get us going:

 

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X @ Ignatius - Ignatius is coming off a somewhat stunning loss to a reeling Moeller team on their third string QB. They struggled with ball security all game and turned it over 3 times.  Their defense was gashed by Colin Thurman for 227 yards on the ground. Last week they got a closer than expected game against GlenOak, and don't appear to be trending in the right direction heading into their two biggest games of the year. X does have to make the long trip up to Cleveland this year, and this is a rivalry game, but X is clearly the superior team. 

Moeller @ Ed's - Moeller got new life after it appeared they were heading towards a 3-6 season and a possible third year playoff drought. They could still sneak in if they lose out, but one win over the last two weeks will secure a playoff spot. Ed's is coming off a breather against Canada Prep and should be relatively healthy as they play host to Moeller. They have won the past seven match-ups against the Crusaders (including Moe's two state championship seasons) and seem to have their number both home and away. 

Euclid @ Mentor - if you like offense, this is probably the game for you. The always potent Mentor offense came back in the last minute to beat a Solon team playing for their playoff lives, while Euclid put up 78 points on Brunswick. This is somewhat of a rivalry game with many in the Mentor community having ties to Euclid before moving out to Lake County, and Euclid always gets up for this match-up. However, they haven't been able to beat Mentor at their home field in the 2000's. I think that streak continues as the Euclid defense is not up to snuff, and offensive shootouts tend to favor Mentor. 

O-Lib @ O-Orange - the last of the "Olentangy battles" for the year.  Orange carries its undefeated streak into this game, but has only beaten two teams with winning records. Likewise, Liberty has only beaten one team with a winning record and has convincing losses to both Wayne and Pick North. I think Orange has the better defense and should prevail. 

Fairmont @ Centerville - Centerville finally fell from the ranks of the unbeaten with its loss to an underrated Northmont team.  Fairmont hung a lot closer to Wayne than I thought they would. I like the Elks to rebound at home, but this one should be a good game.  

Springfield @ Wayne - a win will clinch a playoff spot for Wayne, and should do the same for Springfield if they win. Wayne finishes with Trotwood and Springfield with Fairmont, so both have a difficult finish and would prefer to lock it up this week. Springfield hasn't been able to do much against teams with defenses, but the Wayne defense is surprisingly mediocre this year.  I still like Wayne at home. 

Fairfield @ Mason - a win for Fairfield will put them in position to host in week one of the playoffs, while a loss for Mason makes week ten against Lakota East a must win (an even that would be no guarantee of a spot). Both teams were crushed by Colerain, and I see neither as a legitimate playoff threat in R4. I see this as a coin flip game. 

Others games with top teams:

Colerain v. Lakota West - Colerain will roll. Running clock type game. 

Elder v. International School of Broward (FL) - running clock for Elder 

Winton Woods v. St. Francis DeSales - DeSales is decent, but not on WW's level. They should rebound after the crushing loss to Elder in OT. 

Hoban v. NDCL - NDCL comes in at 7-1, but they don't have the top tier talent that Hoban does. 

 

 

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The thing that is looking good for St. X this year is that they appear to have the full package when it comes to offense AND defense.

The defense is giving up less than 10 ppg including OT and garbage time (less than a td when you factor them out).

The offense is averaging 35 ppg, which could/would be much worse except for wholesale bench clearing which has begun - in a case or two - as early as the 2nd quarter.

QB Chase Wolf has been living up to the hype, so far going 131/193 (68%) with 18 TDs and just one INT. Outstanding.

They also have solid RBs to keep defenses honest.

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7 minutes ago, concha said:

The thing that is looking good for St. X this year is that they appear to have the full package when it comes to offense AND defense.

The defense is giving up less than 10 ppg including OT and garbage time (less than a td when you factor them out).

The offense is averaging 35 ppg, which could/would be much worse except for wholesale bench clearing which has begun - in a case or two - as early as the 2nd quarter.

QB Chase Wolf has been living up to the hype, so far going 131/193 (68%) with 18 TDs and just one INT. Outstanding.

They also have solid RBs to keep defenses honest.

Tell us more about, Hillary and post some memes!

That's your function here.

Know your role!

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St. Edward (8-0) vs. Moeller (4-4) - Ed's 38 Moeller 21

St. Edward beat up on the Canadians last week 31-7. 

Moeller brought in their 3rd string QB and turned to a rushing attack, shocking Iggy 41-20. RB Thurman had 138 yds and 2 TD's. Iggy had a lot of turnovers and mistakes, but Moeller still has to be ecstatic with the way they played.

This is an interesting game. Ed's is fantastic on the Lines, and Moe is usually great on the Lines too. I don't think Moe will be able to run on Ed's like they did Iggy. Ed's is pretty good at running and passing, and mix it up nicely with stellar Line play. This is the type of team Moeller struggles with, and I think Moe's big week last week will prove to be more of an aberration, rather than a new Moeller.

St. Xavier (8-0) @ St. Ignatius (7-1) - St. X 24 Iggy 17

St. X also defended American football by beating Team Canada 47-14. 

Iggy had a rough week losing to Moe 41-20. While Iggy played bad with turnovers and multiple mistakes, it's still not good to lose to Moe with a 3rd string QB by 3 scores. Since Moeller really changed up their offensive attack with a new QB, I'm guessing a lack of film and appropriate preparations played a big role in Iggy's loss. 

I'm not sure how this one will play out. Iggy does seem to be downtrending a bit. I'm not sure if Iggy's QB play will be good enough to stay in this game. This big loss to Moe could be a blessing in diguise for Iggy, because they had some serious flaws pointed out and it will give coach Kyle a good opportunity to correct their issues. I still think Chase Wolf and X take this one. 

Colerain (6-2) vs. Lakota West (2-6) Colerain 35 Lakota West 7

Colerain came off a huge 38-12 win over Fairfield last week. It was a great game in the first half. Fairfield was able to match Colerain's athleticism, speed, talent, and had a big size advantage on the Lines. Fairfield was running succesfully and were about to go up 13-10 right before half, before Ja'von Hicks picked off a pass in the endzone and returned it 105 yds for a TD on the last play of the half.....In the 2nd half Colerain turned it on and the offense started executing the option at a very high level, and Gunnar was making good confident throws. Fairfield had a nice drive running the ball to answer, but then threw a pass that Dan Bolden picked off and returned into Fairfield territory....next play Ivan Pace Jr. punches in a ~35 yd TD run, and that's when the wind left Fairfield's sails. Colerain played extremely well in the 2nd half against a very tough Fairfield team, and proved their LB's and secondary are at or near the top in the state.

Colerain should roll in this game. I don't know what's happened over at West this year....surely it's not only on the Iceman? 

Elder (5-3) vs. ISB FL (1-3) - Elder 124 ISB 2

Elder had a great win vs. Winton Woods, winning 35-34 in OT after a missed WW XP. Elder has really found something special with backup QB Bittner. Elder fans have expressed their desire to see him at QB, and they look like a very good team with Bittner at QB. Elder's 3 losses are to Ed's, X, and Iggy. Not bad losses. 

Elder will destroy ISB 

Winton Woods (7-1) @ St. Francis DeSales (5-3) - WW 28 DeSales 10

Winton Woods lost a heartbreaker to Elder last week 35-34 in OT on a missed XP. WW lost their best defensive player in the first half, 4* star captain LB Chris Oats. That really hurt WW. It was a game where typical Winton Woods mistakes cost them the game: a missed FG and missed XP, a huge turnover late and penalties. Winton Woods racked up over 400 yds of offense, but gave up a lot to Bittner passing and running.

DeSales is a good team that has lost to 3 good teams in Bishop Chatard IN, CovCath KY, and Bishop Hartley. Unfortunately DeSales isn't as good as last year.

Winton Woods will be way too much for DeSales this year.

Mentor (7-1) vs. Euclid (7-1) - Mentor 42 Euclid 35

Mentor had a very nice comeback in a shootout win over Solon 38-34. Tatarunas had 4 INT's but still led Mentor to a game winning TD drive with 43 secs left. Typical Mentor....very good Offense, very poor defense. 

Euclid has had a nice season. Their only loss is to Iggy and they hung around in that one. They have a solid win over Solon. 

I really want to pick Euclid in this one, but I'm gonna go with Mentor at home.

Fairfield (5-3) @ Mason (6-2) - Fairfield 28 Mason 14

Malik vann is one of the best Defensive players I've seen all year. 
As long as Fairfield sticks to running the ball, I don't see how they lose this game.

Centerville (7-1) vs. Fairmont (6-2) - Centerville 34 Fairmont 21

Wayne (6-2) vs. Springfield (6-2) - Wayne 35 Springfield 20


 

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Elder (5-3) vs. ISB FL (1-3) - Elder 124 ISB 2

Elder had a great win vs. Winton Woods, winning 35-34 in OT after a missed WW XP. Elder has really found something special with backup QB Bittner. Elder fans have expressed their desire to see him at QB, and they look like a very good team with Bittner at QB. Elder's 3 losses are to Ed's, X, and Iggy. Not bad losses. 

Elder will destroy ISB 

 

 

xD 124-2

Gonna give up a safety to ISB? 

That'd be pretty shameful actually. 

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One more pivotal R1 game I forgot to include is McKinley v. Perry. A win for McKinley should lock up a first round home game. The Pups got a scare from rival GlenOak last week, but GlenOak's 2-6 record is a bit deceiving as they have been very competitive against a good schedule (including games against Ignatius, Whitmer, Massillon, and Jackson).  Nonetheless, the Pups unbeaten record remain intact as they head into the defacto Fed League Championship game.  Perry sports a 7-1 record, but has feasted on a bunch of patsies and lost to the only good team (Jackson) they have played to date in convincing fashion. The sit at the 8 spot right now and may have to win out to secure a playoff spot. I don't see that happening, and believe McKinley rolls in this one. 

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Region 4     Harbin Projections

1    43.12    St. Xavier (10-0)
2    27.05    Colerain (8-2)
3    23.63    Elder (7-3)
4    23.15    Fairfield (7-3)
5    20.85    Sycamore (7-3)
6    19.75    West Clermont (7-3) 
7    18.60    Mason (7-3) Fairfield
8    16.15    Moeller (4-6) St. Edward, Winton Woods
=================================
    14.60    Milford (7-3) Anderson, West Clermont
    14.55    Lakota East (6-4) Sycamore, Mason
    13.40    Springboro (5-5) Northmont

 

There's way too many scenarios to go through............ I don't like doing individual team point calculators, because while an individual team's points can be calculated, all those calculations and variations can move a bunch of teams around at once (ex: Elder losing to La Salle lowers Elders total but  raises St. X's total).... ....It's best to look at as a whole. 

A few popular scenarios...........If Elder loses to La Salle they would be around an 18 and on the good side of bubble

Fairfield likely in even with loss to Mason

Milford, West Clermont, Lakota East, Mason, Sycamore all have important games against at least one of the others and each most likely controls their own destiny.

Springboro beating Northmont would put them on the bubble

 

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Region 3 Harbin Projections

1    38.15    Centerville (9-1)
2    34.60    Hilliard Bradley (10-0)
3    34.08    Pickerington Central (9-1)
4    33.93    Northmont (8-2)
5    30.10    Pickerington North (8-2) 
6    29.90    Wayne (7-3) Trotwood-Madison
7    22.10    Reynoldsburg (7-3) Pick Central
8    21.50    Fairmont (6-4) Centerville, Springfield
=================================================
    21.05    Springfield (7-3) Wayne
    20.25    Hilliard Darby (7-3) 
    13.85    Miamisburg (5-5) Northmont
    11.85    Beavercreek (5-5) Miamisburg, Centerville

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Region 2       Harbin Projections


1    33.05    Whitmer (10-0)
2    31.60    Olentangy Orange (10-0)
3    23.00    Olentangy (7-3)
4    22.65    Dublin Coffman (8-2)
5    21.80    Gahanna Lincoln (6-4) Pick North
6    20.65    Olentangy Liberty (7-3) Orange
7    19.90    Dublin Jerome (7-3) 
8    18.75    Lorain (8-2) Bedford
=========================================
    12.25    Findlay (4-6) TCC, Whitmer
    11.85    Westerville Central (4-6) Olentangy

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Region 1    Harbin Projections


1    40.94    St. Edward (10-0)
2    37.70    Canton McKinley (10-0)
3    30.35    Mentor (9-1)
4    29.15    St. Ignatius (7-3) St. X, St. Edward
5    27.60    Jackson (8-2) 
6    27.35    Euclid (8-2) Mentor
7    26.35    Stow-Munroe Falls (9-1)
8    20.55    Solon (7-3) 
=========================================
    20.45    Perry (8-2) McKinley
    13.56    Ausintown-Fitch (5-5) Boardman, Cardinal Mooney

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