Ohio Playoffs Round 1 Predictions/Discussion

[Coletrain06]

Region 1

#1 St. Ignatius (9-1) vs. #8 Perry (9-1) - Iggy 33 Perry 7

Ignatius capped of its season with an impressive 17-10 win over St. Edward. Although Ed's was without their QB and 3 WR's, it was still an impressive win. Iggy has the best resume' in Ohio, being the only team to defeat Hoban, Mentor, St. X, and St. Eds. They also beat Euclid whom only has 1 other last second loss to Mentor. Iggy is gigantic on the Lines and can control the LOS. They have some nice skill players but no standouts IMO. They have a good set of LB's and a pretty solid secondary. Extremely well-coached 

Massillon Perry has had a very solid season. Last season they were D2 and lost to La Salle in the D2 Title game. This year they were bumped up to D1, and have had a great season, only losing to Massillon Jackson 38-7, but getting a nice win vs Canton McKinley.

Iggy should handle Perry with ease.

#4 Euclid (8-2) vs. #5 Jackson (8-2) - Euclid 42 Jackson 28

Euclid has had a very solid season, and it appears Coach Rotsky has turned another program around. Euclid has only lost 2 games, 34-20 to Iggy & 61-59 to Mentor. Euclid has a pretty good offense, but not much of a defense at all. 

The Massillon Jackson Polar Bears (a favorite mascot) have a great win over Massillon Perry, and two losses to Boardman and McKinley. Jackson's defense isn't very good either.

With neither teams defense being very good, look for a higher scoring game. I think Euclid has been competitive with far better teams. Look for a Euclid win here.

#3 Mentor (9-1) vs. #6 Stow-Munroe Falls (9-1) - Mentor 38 Stow 28

Mentor has returned as a dangerous contender. With one of the most potent offenses in the state, led by Tadas Tatarunas, Mentor will be a tough out for anybody. On the season they have good wins against Euclid, and Massillon Washington, with their lone loss coming against Iggy 41-31. Mentor has only been held under 40 twice, and their lowest point total (31) came against Iggy. As usual though, Mentor's defense is not good.

Stow is a very interesting team. They hav a nice win over Hudson, but their lone loss is to Wadsworth. Wadsworth is an undefeated D2 team whom has 2 score wins over Hudson and Stow.

Stow could prove to us that we've all been sleeping on Wadsworth, and that Stow may be a legit D1 threat. I still am not picking against Mentor, unless it's against Iggy or Eds.

#2 St. Edward (9-1) vs. #7 Canton McKinley (8-2) -  Eds 28 McKinley 10

St. Edward was without their QB and 3 of their WR's against rival Iggy, and had 4 turnovers, one of which was a muffed punt that Iggy recovered at the Ed's 8 yd line and led to Iggy's first TD. Ed's defense played a great game, but their offense couldn't get anything going without their playmakers. Ed's needs to get healthy if they want to make a run to the title. Don't know the status of the injuries.

McKinley has had a nice season, and are certainly headed in the right direction. They have a lot of talent on their team, but lack of execution and discipline has come back to bite them this year. They've beaten Hudson and Jackson, but have lost to Perry 28-20, and archrival Massillon Washington 15-16.

Mckinley has a good team this year, but they will be no match for an Ed's team coming off a loss. Ed's rolls.

Region 2 

#1 Whitmer (10-0) vs. #8 Lorain (8-2) - Whitmer 35 Lorain 10

We had heard in the preseason that this Whitmer team would be one of their better teams. They have lived up to the billing so far, going undefeated, with the only real win of note being against TCC. Whitmer plays good defense and has only given up more than 14 pts 1 time this year, against GlenOak in the first game of the season.

Lorain has only played 2 teams of note, Midview and Bedford, and lost to both. 

Whitmer should win this game without too much trouble.

#4 Dublin Coffman (8-2) vs. #5 Olentangy (7-3) - Olentangy 24 Coffman 17

Coffman doesn't have a particularly strong team this yea, by their standards.....they've only played 2 good teams, Olentangy and Gahanna Lincoln, and lost to both.

Olentangy is a good team who has 2 good wins against Dublin Coffman and Hilliard Darby. They have 3 losses to good teams Olentangy Liberty, Olentangy Orange, and an underrated Reynoldsburg team.

This a rematch from Week 4 that was played at Olentangy and Olentangy won 31-14. This time the game is at Coffman, which should make the game closer, but I don't think Coffman will have enough to close the gap.

#3 Olentangy Orange (9-1) vs. #6 Gahanna Lincoln (6-4) - Orange 27 Gahanna 24

Olentangy Orange has had their best season in a long time. They have nice wins over Dublin Jerome and Olentangy. They lost in week 9 to Olentangy Liberty by 1 point 25-24.

Gahanna Lincoln has a win over a Dublin Coffman. They have losses to Elder, Pickerington Central, Reynoldsburg, and Pickerington North. They gave Elder a good one score game earlier in the year. 

I could see Gahanna Lincoln taking this one, but I'm going to go with Orange.

#2 Olentangy Liberty (8-2) vs. #7 Dublin Jerome (7-3) - Liberty 28 -21

Olentangy Liberty lost 17-0 to Wayne, and 42-0 to Pickerington North earlier in the year, but have seemed to come around the last few weeks, knocking off Olentangy and Olentangy Orange.

Dublin Jerome has been blown-out in their 3 losses to Pickerington North, Olentangy Orange, and Hilliard Bradley. They have one solid win against Hilliard Darby...

Don't really know on this one. I'll go with Liberty because they seem to be the 2nd best team in Region 2.

Region 3

#1 Centerville (9-1) vs. #8 Hilliard Darby (7-3) - Centerville 31 Darby 14

Centerville was a big surprise this season. This is one of their strongest teams since 2004. Under first year coach Brent Ullery, the Centerville faithful have to be ecstatic with this season. They have a bunch of good wins against Fairfield, Pick North, Wayne, and Fairmont. Their lone loss is a tough 21-14 loss to Northmont. Centerville isn't very good defensively, but they have a nice well balanced offense.

Darby has lost to Olentangy, Hilliard Bradley, and Dublin Jerome.......They haven't really beaten anybody good.

I think Centerville wins this one without a whole lot of trouble.

#4 Wayne (7-3) vs. #5 Pickerington North (8-2) - Pick North 21 Wayne 14

Wayne lost a close one last week to a very good Trotwood-Madison team 14-7. They've had a bit of trouble this year against good defenses, even though they still have some good offensive playmakers. Wayne has nice wins over Olentangy Liberty, Fairmont, and a 2OT win over  Northmont.

Pick North has rolled right through everyone they have played except Centerville and Pick Central. They lost to Centerville 27-26 in a game where they let a win get away from them. They lost to archrival Pick Central 24-21, where they dropped a game winning TD pass in the final seconds of the game. Pick North has a very good QB in Jimmy Weirick. 

This is one of the best first round games. I lean toward Pick North taking this game, but Wayne has home field advantage and are an experienced playoff team. Still taking Pick North but should be interesting.

#3 Pickerington Central (9-1) vs. #6 Northmont (8-2) - Pick Central 35 Northmont 28

Pick Central has had a great season, only losing to undefeated D3 power Trotwood-Madison. Along the way they've knocked off Cass Tech, Indy Cathedral, Gahanna Lincoln, and escaped with a win against archrival Pick North. Pick Central has a bunch of athletes, playoff experience, and are good everywhere. 

Northmont, much like Centerville, is a big surprise this year. They are playing great football. They grabbed nice wins over Fairfield and Centerville. They were very competitive in their 2 losses to Winton woods (45-36) and to Wayne in 2OT(38-35). Northmont also doesn't have a good defense, but their offense is solid. More importantly, they've been rising to big occasions. 

This should be a really good game. I wouldn't be surprised at all with either outcome. I have to go with Pick Central and all of their playofff experience at home. 

#2 Hilliard Bradley (10-0) vs. #7 Fairmont (7-3)  - Bradley 28 Fairmont 21

Bradley is the big unknown in D1. They are undefeated and have won every game by 2 scores.....They've only played 2 good teams, Dublin Jerome, whom they hammered 28-7; and Hilliard Darby, whom they beat 21-7. Just looking at scores, it appears Bradley plays pretty good defense. I haven't been able to see them yet this year.

In the preseason, we heard that Fairmont would have a pretty strong by their standards...and they were right. Fairmont's only losses were to Beavercreek, Centerville, and Wayne, and they were competitive in all of those games. They also have 2 nice wins against otherwise undefeated D3 power Alter, and also a 42-0 win agaisnt Milford. 

Because I haven't seen Bradley, this is a hard one to predict. I'll go ahead and say Bradley wins this one, but wouldn't be surprised either way.

Region 4 

#1 St. Xavier (9-1) vs. #8 Fairfield (6) - St. X 28 Fairfield 10

The Bombers escaped the Tigers last week 16-14 in Cold, rainy weather. This game meant nothing to either team, so not sure how much to take away from it. I believe X star LB/DE Blake Bacevich is back and healthy now, which is big. At this point in the season X has a bunch of good wins over Colerain, Indy Cathedral, Moeller, Elder, La Salle, and Louisville St. X. Their lone loss is to St. Ignatius.

Here's the story on Fairfield....They have 2 of the biggest recruits in the country on their team...DE Malik Vann, and OL Jack Carman. Malik Vann is an absolute beast, and probably the best DL I've seen this year. He can cause problems. Carman on the other hand has all of the physical tools, but seems to lack motivation, and can become uninterested. So far Fairfield only has one good win against Sycamore, and have lost to the other 4 good teams they've played, (Centerville, Northmont, Colerain, Mason.)

This game should go X's way without too much trouble, but Fairfield has the talent, and team speed to really give them trouble. Fairfield is pretty big on both lines, and have nice RB's that can run behind them. However, their QB, though he has a nice arm, does not like pressure and isn't good at all passing under pressure.......On the other side of the ball, Fairfield has pretty good run Defense. If Vann can get through and cause some bad throws by Wolf, Fairfield could win this game.

#4 Sycamore (8-2) vs. #5 Milford (8-2) - Sycamore 35 Milford 14

Sycamore's only good win this year is their win over rival Mason. Their 2 losses are a blowout 42-0 loss to Colerain, and a 21-7 loss to Fairfield. Besides the Colerain game, Sycamore's defense has been pretty solid. Their offense just doesn't have that playmaker like thay had last year.

 
Milford has been the biggest surprise in D1 by far. Just last year Milford was struggling to put out a football team that looked like an actual football team. They hired former longtime Elder/Fairfield/La Salle coach Tom Grippa whom was coaching college as a coordinator and teaching P.E. at Colerain. Grippa has once again turned a program around and has Milford in the D1 playoffs in 1 year! They haven't played anyone too tougn, but they do have a nice win against Anderson. They've lost to Fairmont 42-0, and West Clermont 35-28. 

Milford is a great story, but I'm afraid it comes to an end this week. Even though Sycamore isn't as strong as last year, Milford won't be able to hang with Sycamore. 

#3 Mason (8-2) vs. #6 West Clermomt (7-3) - Mason 28 West Clermont 7

Mason has had another great season, and are really a tough team. They play good defense with 5 shutouts on the year. They have a very good RB in Matt Sora, and a QB who is a decent passer. Mason has some good size on the lines. They lost to rival Sycamore 21-7 and to Colerain 36-10. Mason is better than Sycamore, but Sycamore always seem to get the better of them, especially at home.

West Clermont is another great story. They are a first year school that is a combination of Glen Este and Amelia high schools. West Clermont's losses are to Winton Woods, La Salle, and Anderson. They needed to win last week against Milford to get in the playoffs, and they pulled it off. 

Just like Milford, I think West Clermont's story ends here in the first round.

#2 Colerain (8-2) #7 Moeller (4-6) - Colerain 28 Moeller 14

Colerain rolled to their 18th consecutive GMC title. Gunnar Leyendecker has really found his way as the QB of the Colerain option, and is making great reads. The RB's are looking very good, making cuts upfield instead of east and west.....JJ Davis has serious speed. Then at FB, Ivan Pace Jr. has been running right through tackles and averaging a large amount per carry. On defense Colerain has been a bit banged up, playing all 4 RB's and WR both ways at times...but still the defense has been fantastic, and one of, if not thee best in the state. Colerain's secondary has a pick 6 in 6 games this year! Colerain just needs to get healthy.

Moeller has had a very bizarre season. They made the playoffs after a 4-6 season. They've been hit by injury with their star LB Hawkins injured before the season, and QB McBride injured mid way through. Moeller has been blown out in a handful of games, but in a bizarre twist won by 3 scores over Iggy. Iggy played terrible with alot of turnovers. Moeller went with a WR at QB in that game, and changed their offensive gameplan to a rushing attack. Perhaps because of lack of film and strategy involved, Moe caught Iggy off guard. One thing is for sure tho, Moeller does have size and talent on the lines.

All signs point to Colerain winning. Moeller seriously lacks speed, and Colerain has plenty to burn. Moe's size on the line is the only thing that I think could give Moe the win. Colerain is very small on the D line (the linebackers are significantly bigger.) If Phillips and Ivan Pace Jr. are both playing and get pressure on the Moe QB, I think there may a few INT's. Colerain's Offense may take a while to get going, but I think they'll have too much speed and too many weapons. Also Colerain has never lost in the playoffs at home. Look for a close game early, and Colerain pulling away late.
 

[prepsbill65]

'train06...... right on with your analysis, as usual.  Below is an interesting Division 1 acessment from Drew Pasture.  Interesting in the sense that the Top 4 are the usual's (R1 ( St. Ignatius and St Ed's).....R4  (Colerain and StX).  Nos. 5-8 are all R3 teams Centerville, Pickerington North, Pickerington Central,  Huber Heights Wayne.  Toledo Whitmer is the  LONE R2 team in the Top 16 Division 1 teams...at# 12.  So Regions 1 and 4 probably have the 4 best teams in the state. Region 3 is probably the strongest Region top to bottom, and Region 2 has 1 team.  My question; what is the semi-final setup.... does Region 1 get Region 2, while Regions 3 and 4 beat themselves up?  I could not find a bracket that states which Region winners play each other in the semi's?

 

Division I rankings

Updated 31-Oct-2017 9:19AM
Week 10 complete
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

1. #1 Cincinnati St Xavier (9-1 D1 R4)
2. #2 Cleveland St Ignatius (9-1 D1 R1)
3. #3 Lakewood St Edward (9-1 D1 R1)
4. #4 Cincinnati Colerain (8-2 D1 R4)
5. #7 Centerville (9-1 D1 R3)
6. #10 Pickerington North (8-2 D1 R3)
7. #11 Pickerington Central (9-1 D1 R3)
8. #12 Huber Heights Wayne (7-3 D1 R3)
9. #13 Mentor (9-1 D1 R1)
10. #14 Cincinnati Elder (6-4 D1 R4)
11. #15 Clayton Northmont (8-2 D1 R3)
12. #18 Toledo Whitmer (10-0 D1 R2)
13. #19 Hilliard Bradley (10-0 D1 R3)
14. #20 Cincinnati Archbishop Moeller (4-6 D1 R4)
15. #21 Mason (8-2 D1 R4)
16. #22 Stow-Munroe Falls (9-1 D1 R1)  

[hardhit1]

20 minutes ago, prepsbill65 said:

'train06...... right on with your analysis, as usual.  Below is an interesting Division 1 acessment from Drew Pasture.  Interesting in the sense that the Top 4 are the usual's (R1 ( St. Ignatius and St Ed's).....R4  (Colerain and StX).  Nos. 5-8 are all R3 teams Centerville, Pickerington North, Pickerington Central,  Huber Heights Wayne.  Toledo Whitmer is the  LONE R2 team in the Top 16 Division 1 teams...at# 12.  So Regions 1 and 4 probably have the 4 best teams in the state. Region 3 is probably the strongest Region top to bottom, and Region 2 has 1 team.  My question; what is the semi-final setup.... does Region 1 get Region 2, while Regions 3 and 4 beat themselves up?  I could not find a bracket that states which Region winners play each other in the semi's?

 

Division I rankings

Updated 31-Oct-2017 9:19AM
Week 10 complete
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

1. #1 Cincinnati St Xavier (9-1 D1 R4)
2. #2 Cleveland St Ignatius (9-1 D1 R1)
3. #3 Lakewood St Edward (9-1 D1 R1)
4. #4 Cincinnati Colerain (8-2 D1 R4)
5. #7 Centerville (9-1 D1 R3)
6. #10 Pickerington North (8-2 D1 R3)
7. #11 Pickerington Central (9-1 D1 R3)
8. #12 Huber Heights Wayne (7-3 D1 R3)
9. #13 Mentor (9-1 D1 R1)
10. #14 Cincinnati Elder (6-4 D1 R4)
11. #15 Clayton Northmont (8-2 D1 R3)
12. #18 Toledo Whitmer (10-0 D1 R2)
13. #19 Hilliard Bradley (10-0 D1 R3)
14. #20 Cincinnati Archbishop Moeller (4-6 D1 R4)
15. #21 Mason (8-2 D1 R4)
16. #22 Stow-Munroe Falls (9-1 D1 R1)  

R1 winner plays R2 winner 

R3 winner plays R4 winner

each winner of those games in Championship 

OHSAA has the option to switch this but have not done so over the years.

[prepsbill65]

Thanks.....  It does seem like every year Region 1 get paired against Region 2 (IMO, easily the worst Region in Division 1).

That leaves the Columbus, Dayton, Cincinnati areas (Regions 3 and 4) with the only competitive semi-final.  When was the last time a Region 2 team won the D1 Title?  Or even played in the Championship game?  

[hardhit1]

54 minutes ago, prepsbill65 said:

Thanks.....  It does seem like every year Region 1 get paired against Region 2 (IMO, easily the worst Region in Division 1).

That leaves the Columbus, Dayton, Cincinnati areas (Regions 3 and 4) with the only competitive semi-final.  When was the last time a Region 2 team won the D1 Title?  Or even played in the Championship game?  

Whitmer  vs Moeller 2012

Whitmer has a Soph QB so they look to be strong in coming years

[Coletrain06]

1 hour ago, prepsbill65 said:

Thanks.....  It does seem like every year Region 1 get paired against Region 2 (IMO, easily the worst Region in Division 1).

That leaves the Columbus, Dayton, Cincinnati areas (Regions 3 and 4) with the only competitive semi-final.  When was the last time a Region 2 team won the D1 Title?  Or even played in the Championship game?  

I believe Region 2 has made the Finals in 2012-Whitmer......2005-Massillon......2004-McKinley.

The thing about that Region....if they have a really good team, they basically only have to worry about the semifinal game........while the other Regions beat each other up. Wouldn't surprise me at all to see Whitmer in the Finals for this very reason....especially if the semi is against Mentor again....... Obviously I think a healthy Eds will be in the finals, or Iggy.

[nptb17]

25 minutes ago, Coletrain06 said:

I believe Region 2 has made the Finals in 2012-Whitmer......2005-Massillon......2004-McKinley.

The thing about that Region....if they have a really good team, they basically only have to worry about the semifinal game........while the other Regions beat each other up. Wouldn't surprise me at all to see Whitmer in the Finals for this very reason....especially if the semi is against Mentor again....... Obviously I think a healthy Eds will be in the finals, or Iggy.

The Toledo schools are always slept on.  I picked Whitmer to win it in 2012.  I have only seen a little bit of TCC this season and they were solid.  Toledo Whitmer is a solid program who should be considered a threat to do damage most years.  

[HSFBfan]

Middletown coach resigned over death threats

https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/ohio-high-school-football-coach-resigns-position-amid-alleged-death-threats/

[prepsbill65]

3 hours ago, nptb17 said:

The Toledo schools are always slept on.  I picked Whitmer to win it in 2012.  I have only seen a little bit of TCC this season and they were solid.  Toledo Whitmer is a solid program who should be considered a threat to do damage most years.  

Not arguing your point at all.  But Widmer played one (1) team in the Top 500 (Calpreps) and only won that game 21-14 (Toledo Central Catholic) # 409.  Hard for me to see them as contenders this year based on schedule they played.

As a reference:  St. Ignatius played 7 teams in Top 500 (went 6-1), St Xavier played 8 teams in Top 500 (went 7-1) and Moeller played 8 teams in Top 500..... 7 of those 8 were in the Top 165.

Widmer may get to the semi's only because there is no one to challenge them in Region 2.  Do not know how any AP writer could actually give them a first place vote?????   IMO, state champ will not come from Region 2 this year.

[hardhit1]

20 minutes ago, prepsbill65 said:

Not arguing your point at all.  But Widmer played one (1) team in the Top 500 (Calpreps) and only won that game 21-14 (Toledo Central Catholic) # 409.  Hard for me to see them as contenders this year based on schedule they played.

As a reference:  St. Ignatius played 7 teams in Top 500 (went 6-1), St Xavier played 8 teams in Top 500 (went 7-1) and Moeller played 8 teams in Top 500..... 7 of those 8 were in the Top 165.

Widmer may get to the semi's only because there is no one to challenge them in Region 2.  Do not know how any AP writer could actually give them a first place vote?????   IMO, state champ will not come from Region 2 this year.

Probably a Toledo blade writer gave them a vote  nuff said😀

[OdbCle]

In a surprising turn of events, both Ed's and Ignatius find themselves down at the half to the Stark County contingent. Perry leads Iggy 7-3 while McKinley took the lead late in the half when they returned a fumble for a TD and are up 14-10. 

Other halftime scores:

Euclid 42, Jackson 7. Panthers hitting big play after big play. 

Colerain 14, Moeller 0

Whitmer 14, Lorain 12

St. X 23, Fairfield 6

Pick Central 27, Northmont 7

Mentor 28, Stow 17

Pick North 27, Wayne 13

 

 

 

 

 

 

[OdbCle]

Ignatius and Ed's both regain the lead on their opening drives.

Eds 17, McKinley 14

Ignatius 10, Perry 7

[OdbCle]

St. Ignatius 24, Perry 7

St. Edward 24, McKinley 14

[Coletrain06]

Colerain 35

Moeller 0

130 3rd

[OdbCle]

St. Ignatius 24, Perry 7 - FINAL

St. Edward 31, McKinley 14 -  9:00 left in the 4th Qtr.

 

[OdbCle]

St. Edward 31, McKinley 21; pick six by McKinley as Ed's with awful play-calling from their one yard line deciding to throw. 

[Coletrain06]

Colerain 45

Moeller 0

246 4th

[OdbCle]

Centerville 35, Darby 0 - FINAL

Bradley 49, Fairmont 14 - FINAL

St. X 40, Fairfield 12 - FINAL

[OdbCle]

St. Edward 37, McKinley 21 - FINAL

[OdbCle]

Mason 26, Clermont 0 - FINAL

Mentor 49, Stow 17 - FINAL

Whitmer 28, Lorain 28 - 1:40 in 4th

Sycamore 28, Milford 28 - going to OT

 

[hardhit1]

10 minutes ago, OdbCle said:

St. Edward 37, McKinley 21 - FINAL

Eds had almost 400 -150 yard difference but giving up 2 defensive TD's to McKinley made it tough going

[hardhit1]

Whitmer 31-28 OT win

[Sammyswordsman]

I think Iggy takes it all.  Seem to be peaking while others are regressing.  Keep an eye on Colerain tho

[OdbCle]

3 minutes ago, Sammyswordsman said:

I think Iggy takes it all.  Seem to be peaking while others are regressing.  Keep an eye on Colerain tho

I don''t know that I'd consider a 24-7 victory over Perry after trailing at half to be "peaking," but they are definitely on the short list of contenders. Colerain may be the team that is peaking. 

[hardhit1]

2 minutes ago, Sammyswordsman said:

I think Iggy takes it all.  Seem to be peaking while others are regressing.  Keep an eye on Colerain tho

Not sure about that

their in for a task next week vs Euclid

also Eds without their senior QB & WR tonight along with another WR hobbled

if they are not ready next week Mentor will beat them 

any of the 4 in Region one could be in the finals