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Calpreps 25 this week


golfaddict1

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3 hours ago, Bodysurf said:

IMG and MD ratings are very close now (91 and 89.9). Since IMG is done for the year and MD will continue to play good opponents, assuming MD wins out they will easily be number 1 at the end.

MD plays LBP... looking at their ranking... MDs PR from that game will end up between 77-91... they probably wont move up with this game but its probably they win by 25+... so itll probably stay around where it is.

Odds are they play Mission Viejo after that... assuming MV beats OLU by less than 15, which is the most likely scenario... MV will end up around 74.5... a 21 point win for MD over MV (my guesstimate)...  would be a 95... moving MD up a bit to around a 91.5...

Im going to assume MD plays SJB again... if they win by the same margin of 14.. and estimating SJBs rating has moved up to a 81 as a result of beating Rancho & Cen10... thatd give MD a 96 PR rating for that game...

So going into the SBG Open Bowl... MDs rating would be a 93 or so... 

 

So yeah theres a good chance MD wins the Natty by 3-5 points over IMG.

 

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IMG can still rise if East upsets Bingham in the state final as a starter.  That would be a nice start and likely has to happen for IMG to have any chance to stay above MD.  Then if MNW or MC win states they will get a boost.  Corona Centennial can certainly help as can Venice.  Hoover and Chandler running the table can’t hurt either.  Bishop Sullivan was a dud.  The Irma cancellations hurt w SJC and especially SFA (hurt SFA also from lacking a marquee matchup).  

With that said, with the playoff boost and likely opponents on deck with plus 15 at the minimum for a W, I don’t think IMG has a shot no matter what differential MD wins by and if MD pummels an opponent or two from next round on (especially if in the Open final) they will be closer to USC than IMG.  

Forgot to mention MD would get a bump if BC wins state.  BG I don’t think can help much anymore with NV playoffs.  

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54 minutes ago, golfaddict1 said:

IMG can still rise if East upsets Bingham in the state final as a starter.  That would be a nice start and likely has to happen for IMG to have any chance to stay above MD.  Then if MNW or MC win states they will get a boost.  Corona Centennial can certainly help as can Venice.  Hoover and Chandler running the table can’t hurt either.  Bishop Sullivan was a dud.  The Irma cancellations hurt w SJC and especially SFA (hurt SFA also from lacking a marquee matchup).  

With that said, with the playoff boost and likely opponents on deck with plus 15 at the minimum for a W, I don’t think IMG has a shot no matter what differential MD wins by and if MD pummels an opponent or two from next round on (especially if in the Open final) they will be closer to USC than IMG.  

Forgot to mention MD would get a bump if BC wins state.  BG I don’t think can help much anymore with NV playoffs.  

Took a long time to say IMG has no shot if MD wins out 

I agree with assessment and p being result — no wayba team that plays 8 games ought to even be in same discussion as a team that plays 15 better ones 

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1 hour ago, Pops said:

Took a long time to say IMG has no shot if MD wins out 

I agree with assessment and p being result — no wayba team that plays 8 games ought to even be in same discussion as a team that plays 15 better ones 

Bishop Sullivan's 5-5 record dilutes what is still a superb opponent W-L record of 70-18.  Had IMG played and beat SJC and SFA the playoff boost of MD would have been fully tested.  

Did IMG execute a win by just enough to impress yet not pummel to enhance scheduling for future year(s)... you tell me :)   BS was a lost cause weeks ago and IMG looked crappy vs. them last year and it was used as a crutch for rankings placement.   They had no desire to read that again.  

Bottom line,  IMG had "playoff" pressure from week 1.  Win or MNC bust.   Ask SJB about MNC pressure week 1.   

 

 

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27 minutes ago, golfaddict1 said:

Bishop Sullivan's 5-5 record dilutes what is still a superb opponent W-L record of 70-18.  Had IMG played and beat SJC and SFA the playoff boost of MD would have been fully tested.  

Did IMG execute a win by just enough to impress yet not pummel to enhance scheduling for future year(s)... you tell me :)   BS was a lost cause weeks ago and IMG looked crappy vs. them last year and it was used as a crutch for rankings placement.   They had no desire to read that again.  

Bottom line,  IMG had "playoff" pressure from week 1.  Win or MNC bust.   Ask SJB about MNC pressure week 1.   

 

 

If you exclude games DLS opponents played each other (always resulting in a 1-1 opponent’s record), DLS opponents were something like 70-6 in 2010

will you concede that MNC for that reason?

id think not, just trying to make a point about opponents records 

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36 minutes ago, Pops said:

If you exclude games DLS opponents played each other (always resulting in a 1-1 opponent’s record), DLS opponents were something like 70-6 in 2010

will you concede that MNC for that reason?

id think not, just trying to make a point about opponents records 

You saying IMG's opponents are similar to DLS' opponents in 2010? 

Miami Central

Miami Northwestern

Hoover

Venice

East

Corona Centennial

Chandler

Carol City

 

Do I think they should be ranked higher, ehh.  But don't go talking crazy!

 

 

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54 minutes ago, Pops said:

If you exclude games DLS opponents played each other (always resulting in a 1-1 opponent’s record), DLS opponents were something like 70-6 in 2010

will you concede that MNC for that reason?

id think not, just trying to make a point about opponents records 

121-54-1 record turns into 70-6 ?   That's interesting.   Using your criteria, IMG's losses would go from 18 down to 5.   I don't see DLS 2010 schedule standing out much (one top 100 win... St. Edward, now that's a different story).  2017 IMG schedule is strong and that's with SJC and SFA canceled games :(.  5 current top 50, 6 top 100.   That's a MNC schedule.  

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5 hours ago, 954gator said:

You saying IMG's opponents are similar to DLS' opponents in 2010? 

Miami Central

Miami Northwestern

Hoover

Venice

East

Corona Centennial

Chandler

Carol City

 

Do I think they should be ranked higher, ehh.  But don't go talking crazy!

 

 

I’m saying if you judged by record, DLS’s opponents were incredible in 2010 but that and a $4.95 can get you a vente latte

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On 11/13/2017 at 1:45 PM, golfaddict1 said:

http://calpreps.com/2017/ratings/National_all25.htm

Thoughts?  My initial one is what round of playoffs is AR in and the second would be wondering what the total number of Cali schools reaching top 25 status this year is. Upland gets a ribbon this week.  

Doesnt look like AR has played any playoff games.

Wow, 2 AR teams in the Top 25?

 

Keep in mind golf, that doesnt mean these 2 teams are really top 25. What it means, and the ONLY thing it means, is they are THAT much better than the rest of their own state. It really means nothing for them nationally. Greenwood & NLR are that much better inside their own state, that their ratings happen to land within the top 25 teams of all the states combined. It doesnt mean they actually are Top 25.... because CalPreps technically doesnt compare teams nationally, each teams ranking is how good they are compared to the teams theyve played..... CalPreps national ranking are nothing but every states teams compiled on 1 list... it doesnt mean all those teams are compared against each other. 

Thats why CalPreps National rankings are completely and totally useless.

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1 hour ago, ECHS05 said:

Doesnt look like AR has played any playoff games.

Wow, 2 AR teams in the Top 25?

 

Keep in mind golf, that doesnt mean these 2 teams are really top 25. What it means, and the ONLY thing it means, is they are THAT much better than the rest of their own state. It really means nothing for them nationally. Greenwood & NLR are that much better inside their own state, that their ratings happen to land within the top 25 teams of all the states combined. It doesnt mean they actually are Top 25.... because CalPreps technically doesnt compare teams nationally, each teams ranking is how good they are compared to the teams theyve played..... CalPreps national ranking are nothing but every states teams compiled on 1 list... it doesnt mean all those teams are compared against each other. 

Thats why CalPreps National rankings are completely and totally useless.

Surprised about AR not starting playoffs but your answer makes perfect sense.   It really boils down to one man's opinion, similar to any human pollster.   Freeman sets the state scales, he limits movement up/down (depth of ratings rankings like # of teams in top 100, 250 etc.) , he gets to decide the criteria for point differentials in terms of min/max ratings pts given and adds a playoff scale to boot to max out end of season performance (which as you stated simply emphasizes their in-state strength, not national... as OOS game results will never receive that boost).   

It would be nice to see state ratings with a more strategic look than top 50 Echs.   I'd like to see a top 10 for example, which allows more states to be featured as "power" states when you use a magnifying glass and really feature the schools we discuss on the forum vs. #48 in NJ trying to compete with #48 in CA to maintain a top 50 avg. (which makes little sense and on our national forum even less sense for comparison purposes).    

Freeman's last retread adjusting multiple years back was just odd, but it shows how easily ratings can be manipulated.   Fisher's hybrid poll is certainly quite different than Freeman's.   Take one of my fav schools Saguaro!!!  Freeman has them rated 542 this week while Fisher has them in his top 100 (84 this week).   Now that's quite a difference.   

I'll end with this... DBP is rated #20 in NJ this week.   I don't think even the Star-Ledger (NJ.com) can pump up the public schools that well.   That truly takes talent to come up with a rating system where that many NJ public schools pass DBP, but then again having Delbarton as your marquee win is not helping matters.   Still,  Freeman's rating system is flawed in this case, not taking into consideration the sos enough..   Northern Valley, Lenape, Philipsburg?   Oh brother.    

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10 hours ago, Pops said:

If you exclude games DLS opponents played each other (always resulting in a 1-1 opponent’s record), DLS opponents were something like 70-6 in 2010

will you concede that MNC for that reason?

id think not, just trying to make a point about opponents records 

That 2010 DLS team was Very good.  Possibly one of the best HS teams in the country from 2010-2012

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