Ohio Playoffs 3rd Round Discussion/Predictions

[Coletrain06]

#1 St. Ignatius (11-1) vs. #3 Mentor (11-1) @ Bedford HS - Iggy 35 Mentor 31

Iggy handled Euclid 45-21. They were only up 10-0 at Half, but took over the second half scoring 28-0 unanswered points. 

Mentor played an Ed's team that has struggled the last 3-4 weeks with innuries to their QB, WR's, and some Linemen...surprisingly it was a low scoring game. Through some questionable strategy's and officating, Mentor prevailed 21-13.

This is a rematch from week 2, when Iggy was able to beat Mentor 41-31. These two teams have become rivals of a sort. They started playing each other annually in 2005 and since then have met 15 times with Iggy leading 9-6. They also played another playoff game in 2003 that Mentor won, making it 9-7 Iggy since 2000.......This year, Mentor brings their typical uptempo spread offense, behind QB Tadas Tatarunas, and WR Shea....Mentor's Defense is usually their achilles heel, and that is no different this year.... Iggy brings giant size on the Lines, and are solid everywhere. They've been inconsistent at times..........I think Mentor is playing really great right now, and see this game as a toss up.  

#1 Whitmer (12-0) vs. #2 Olentangy Liberty (10-2) @ Findlay HS - Whitmer 24 Liberty 21

Whitmer beat Olentangy 32-29 with a nice comeback and some end game heroics...It was a back and forth game, but a nice trick play put Olentangy ahead with ~50 secs left. Whitmer marched down the field and threw a nice TD pass with 10 secs left to take the victory and remain undefeated.

Liberty beat Gahanna Lincoln 17-14 in what was a defensive battle. One of Liberty's best players, Wiseman, was ejected for targeting. This could mean that he will not be able to play this week...not sure.

This should be a good game. The ejection of Liberty's player could play a big role if he is restricted from playing this week. I know the least about these 2 teams. Whitmer keeps finidng ways to win in close games. I'll take them in this one.

#3 Pickerington Central (11-1) vs. #5 Pickerington North (10-2) @ St. Francis DeSales HS - Pick North 28 Pick central 21

Pickerington Central handled Hilliard Bradley, winning 42-31. Pick Central forced 4 turnovers, all of which they scored on. Bradley kept it close in the first half, trailing only 21-17 at half. From there it was all Pick Central as they went up 42-17, with Bradley adding 2 scores late. Pick Central is really rolling

Pickerington North avenged their prior single point loss to Centerville by blasting them 42-12! Centerville committed 5 turnovers and Pick North had 2 pick 6's. QB Jimmy "Football" Weirick is playing great and is leading his team. 

This should be a real showdown. Both teams are playing really great. Pick North has 2 losses on the year; they just avenged one loss in impressive fashion, and now they have a chance to avenge their other loss to rival Pick Central. They lost earlier in the season 24-21 after they dropped a TD pass in the endzone with 3 secs left.  I'm really liking both teams, and this is a toss up. 

#1 St. Xavier (11-1) vs. #2 Colerain (10-2) @ Mason HS - Colerain 24 St. X 21 OT

St. X handled Sycamore winning 37-7. Sycamore struck first scoring on a big play from speedy WR Malek. After that it was all X. At half it was only 14-7 X, but St. X took control in the 2nd half. Sycamore played a nickel and dime defense to try limit Chase Wolf, and it worked, but Sycamore couldn't stop the St. X run game. X is playing very well. 

Colerain hammered Mason winning 49-21. Colerain's offense has improved so dramatically, that I would never have believed it after week 1 and week 2. Gunnar Leyendecker has proved all the doubters wrong and is making such good cuts and the right reads. FB Ivan Pace Jr. has run absolutely wild on any team that didn't commit everything to stopping him. Against Mason, Ivan Pace Jr. ran for ~230 yds and 4 TD's, while Leyendecker added 162 yds and a TD. In addition Colerain has 3 other good WB's. The Colerain Defense has played lights out all year. After they went up 28-0 on Mason in the 3rd, the defense  slacked off and were worn out with so many 2-way players in 25 degree weather, and with the aid of personal fouls, Mason was able to punch in some scores, though Colerain kept answering every Mason Score.........Mason had pitched 6 shutouts on the year prior to this, and had not given up a point since September. 

This is, in my biased opinion, the best rivalry in the country when you take into consideration annual national relevance, Records, and MOV. They've played 19 times since 2005 with X leading 11-8. Colerain won a playoff game in 2000 over X, so since 2000 X leads 11-9. The last 3 games have gone to OT and 4 of the last 5 have gone to OT. The average point differential during this 19 game rivalry stretch is .4 pts! 

There are many factors to think about for this game. The last 2 games, Colerain had X dead to rights, but X made incredible comebacks. Last Year's playoff game was a game that while X made plays, Colerain choked away through turnovers, bad playcalling, and some uncharacteristic bad special teams plays....The game from week 2 this year was a game that in the 4th X just made all the right plays. Colerain didn't hurt themselves, or have bad playcalling...they just couldn't make the play to stop momentum and X kept making every play......Some big factors in that game were that Colerain lost star 6'4 LB Eric Phillips on the 3rd play of the game, and Colerain didn't have Ivan Pace Jr. at FB until 2nd half.......X's timing routes gave Colerain trouble; Having Eric Phillips and his length back will tremendously help colerain in this regard............St. X will be the favorite coming in to this game, and Colerain will be looking for vengeance. I think Chase Wolf has to have a good game if X wants to win....if he plays like he did against Iggy, Colerain will blow them out.......Same goes for Gunnar Leyendecker for Colerain.....It'll probably end up in OT again.....I won't pick against my team.

[Coletrain06]

Gunnar Leyendecker looks light years better running the option, now that he's not suffering from an injured hamstring.

Here's two great runs against Mason last week....

Here's another great 84 yd run that he unfortunately fumbled away on the 2 yd line

 

[Omaha Vol]

I’m torn on who to pick between X and Colerain. I guess I’ll just flip a coin before I submit my picks this week. 

[prepsbill65]

8 hours ago, Coletrain06 said:

#1 St. Ignatius (11-1) vs. #3 Mentor (11-1) @ Bedford HS - Iggy 35 Mentor 31

Iggy handled Euclid 45-21. They were only up 10-0 at Half, but took over the second half scoring 28-0 unanswered points. 

Mentor played an Ed's team that has struggled the last 3-4 weeks with innuries to their QB, WR's, and some Linemen...surprisingly it was a low scoring game. Through some questionable strategy's and officating, Mentor prevailed 21-13.

This is a rematch from week 2, when Iggy was able to beat Mentor 41-31. These two teams have become rivals of a sort. They started playing each other annually in 2005 and since then have met 15 times with Iggy leading 9-6. They also played another playoff game in 2003 that Mentor won, making it 9-7 Iggy since 2000.......This year, Mentor brings their typical uptempo spread offense, behind QB Tadas Tatarunas, and WR Shea....Mentor's Defense is usually their achilles heel, and that is no different this year.... Iggy brings giant size on the Lines, and are solid everywhere. They've been inconsistent at times..........I think Mentor is playing really great right now, and see this game as a toss up.  

#1 Whitmer (12-0) vs. #2 Olentangy Liberty (10-2) @ Findlay HS - Whitmer 24 Liberty 21

Whitmer beat Olentangy 32-29 with a nice comeback and some end game heroics...It was a back and forth game, but a nice trick play put Olentangy ahead with ~50 secs left. Whitmer marched down the field and threw a nice TD pass with 10 secs left to take the victory and remain undefeated.

Liberty beat Gahanna Lincoln 17-14 in what was a defensive battle. One of Liberty's best players, Wiseman, was ejected for targeting. This could mean that he will not be able to play this week...not sure.

This should be a good game. The ejection of Liberty's player could play a big role if he is restricted from playing this week. I know the least about these 2 teams. Whitmer keeps finidng ways to win in close games. I'll take them in this one.

#3 Pickerington Central (11-1) vs. #5 Pickerington North (10-2) @ St. Francis DeSales HS - Pick North 28 Pick central 21

Pickerington Central handled Hilliard Bradley, winning 42-31. Pick Central forced 4 turnovers, all of which they scored on. Bradley kept it close in the first half, trailing only 21-17 at half. From there it was all Pick Central as they went up 42-17, with Bradley adding 2 scores late. Pick Central is really rolling

Pickerington North avenged their prior single point loss to Centerville by blasting them 42-12! Centerville committed 5 turnovers and Pick North had 2 pick 6's. QB Jimmy "Football" Weirick is playing great and is leading his team. 

This should be a real showdown. Both teams are playing really great. Pick North has 2 losses on the year; they just avenged one loss in impressive fashion, and now they have a chance to avenge their other loss to rival Pick Central. They lost earlier in the season 24-21 after they dropped a TD pass in the endzone with 3 secs left.  I'm really liking both teams, and this is a toss up. 

#1 St. Xavier (11-1) vs. #2 Colerain (10-2) @ Mason HS - Colerain 24 St. X 21 OT

St. X handled Sycamore winning 37-7. Sycamore struck first scoring on a big play from speedy WR Malek. After that it was all X. At half it was only 14-7 X, but St. X took control in the 2nd half. Sycamore played a nickel and dime defense to try limit Chase Wolf, and it worked, but Sycamore couldn't stop the St. X run game. X is playing very well. 

Colerain hammered Mason winning 49-21. Colerain's offense has improved so dramatically, that I would never have believed it after week 1 and week 2. Gunnar Leyendecker has proved all the doubters wrong and is making such good cuts and the right reads. FB Ivan Pace Jr. has run absolutely wild on any team that didn't commit everything to stopping him. Against Mason, Ivan Pace Jr. ran for ~230 yds and 4 TD's, while Leyendecker added 162 yds and a TD. In addition Colerain has 3 other good WB's. The Colerain Defense has played lights out all year. After they went up 28-0 on Mason in the 3rd, the defense  slacked off and were worn out with so many 2-way players in 25 degree weather, and with the aid of personal fouls, Mason was able to punch in some scores, though Colerain kept answering every Mason Score.........Mason had pitched 6 shutouts on the year prior to this, and had not given up a point since September. 

This is, in my biased opinion, the best rivalry in the country when you take into consideration annual national relevance, Records, and MOV. They've played 19 times since 2005 with X leading 11-8. Colerain won a playoff game in 2000 over X, so since 2000 X leads 11-9. The last 3 games have gone to OT and 4 of the last 5 have gone to OT. The average point differential during this 19 game rivalry stretch is .4 pts! 

There are many factors to think about for this game. The last 2 games, Colerain had X dead to rights, but X made incredible comebacks. Last Year's playoff game was a game that while X made plays, Colerain choked away through turnovers, bad playcalling, and some uncharacteristic bad special teams plays....The game from week 2 this year was a game that in the 4th X just made all the right plays. Colerain didn't hurt themselves, or have bad playcalling...they just couldn't make the play to stop momentum and X kept making every play......Some big factors in that game were that Colerain lost star 6'4 LB Eric Phillips on the 3rd play of the game, and Colerain didn't have Ivan Pace Jr. at FB until 2nd half.......X's timing routes gave Colerain trouble; Having Eric Phillips and his length back will tremendously help colerain in this regard............St. X will be the favorite coming in to this game, and Colerain will be looking for vengeance. I think Chase Wolf has to have a good game if X wants to win....if he plays like he did against Iggy, Colerain will blow them out.......Same goes for Gunnar Leyendecker for Colerain.....It'll probably end up in OT again.....I won't pick against my team.

My Cardinal friend.....could not have said it better.  We all knew it would come down to Colerain and StX, and why not.

Incredible stat - the point differential in the last 19 games is .4 points (less than half a point).

You know your Cards' well and I agree with your assessment.  As for StX, who I have watched for the last 3 decades, the road to victory is very simple.  Defensively, I will look for them to play a 'modified' 3-3-5 (meaning you will probably see X put 7 players -including a safety - in the box.) They will play their DB's one on one with the Colerain WR's.  Need to make sure Leyendecker gets keyed on every play.  Believe you will see Specht's touch in there with some interesting defensive sets.

Offensively, they need to play North and South, both throwing and running.  Get rid of that "bubble-screen" crap (that we see 5-10 times a game).  First down is Key of this X offense.  Firmly believe we will see Wolf take to the air deep early.  Look for X to run straight at Colerain (that's right - stay away from trying to beat them on the edge - difficult to do on Colerain D, and they cannot afford to be 2 and long or 3 and long. 

Finally,  the last 2 games (both OT) were won when StX gained momentum in the 2nd half and never gave it up.  All Bolden's boys had to do was get a couple of first downs late, in each of those games,  and X would not have had the time to come back.  

I do not look for any last comeback's or OT this time.   The winner will take control early, and build from there.  Take your pick.... I'm going with Specht and the Bombers.  Two outstanding teams, and coaches.  Lots of respect for each other.

 

[OdbCle]

Love the picks. And I agree that every game is really a coin flip.  An interesting tidbit is that whenever Mentor and Ignatius met in the playoffs after having faced each other in the regular season, the losing team always won the rematch (Iggy in '11 and Mentor in '12 and '13). So history would tell us Mentor will take this, but I'm not picking the Cards. If Ignatius can avoid the turnover bug that has hurt them this year, no reason they shouldn't win that game with the advantage they have in the trenches. Mentor probably has their best lines in years, but they still aren't as massive as Ignatius. Iggy is also getting some great linebacker play lately from Eichenberg and Joyce. A potential wild-card  is each teams running backs. Since that week 2 game, Jahadge Floyd has replaced Bobinksi at tailback for Ignatius and Elijah McDougal has emerged as Mentor's primary ball carrier in tandem with Edmonds. Floyd provides more big play capabiltiy than Bobinski, as does McDougal for Mentor who is a deceptively tough runner for his build and picks up a lot of yards after contact. If either of those guys gets going, it could spell trouble for the opposing team. 

 

[zulu1128]

If Colerain can keep the 3 2-way guys from getting gassed on defense, they will win the game.

[Coletrain06]

2 huge D2 games also as Winton Woods plays La  Salle and Hoban plays Barberton 

[zulu1128]

I haven’t seen DonTragicRon this fired up in 5 years. 

[Coletrain06]

4 hours ago, zulu1128 said:

If Colerain can keep the 3 2-way guys from getting gassed on defense, they will win the game.

Besides turnovers.....This, I agree will be the key to the game.

 

[Coletrain06]

21 hours ago, Omaha Vol said:

I’m torn on who to pick between X and Colerain. I guess I’ll just flip a coin before I submit my picks this week. 

Seems as good a way as any to pick a winner in this rivalry

[Adam Kurkjian]

14 hours ago, prepsbill65 said:

My Cardinal friend.....could not have said it better.  We all knew it would come down to Colerain and StX, and why not.

Incredible stat - the point differential in the last 19 games is .4 points (less than half a point).

You know your Cards' well and I agree with your assessment.  As for StX, who I have watched for the last 3 decades, the road to victory is very simple.  Defensively, I will look for them to play a 'modified' 3-3-5 (meaning you will probably see X put 7 players -including a safety - in the box.) They will play their DB's one on one with the Colerain WR's.  Need to make sure Leyendecker gets keyed on every play.  Believe you will see Specht's touch in there with some interesting defensive sets.

Offensively, they need to play North and South, both throwing and running.  Get rid of that "bubble-screen" crap (that we see 5-10 times a game).  First down is Key of this X offense.  Firmly believe we will see Wolf take to the air deep early.  Look for X to run straight at Colerain (that's right - stay away from trying to beat them on the edge - difficult to do on Colerain D, and they cannot afford to be 2 and long or 3 and long. 

Finally,  the last 2 games (both OT) were won when StX gained momentum in the 2nd half and never gave it up.  All Bolden's boys had to do was get a couple of first downs late, in each of those games,  and X would not have had the time to come back.  

I do not look for any last comeback's or OT this time.   The winner will take control early, and build from there.  Take your pick.... I'm going with Specht and the Bombers.  Two outstanding teams, and coaches.  Lots of respect for each other.

 

Great post and breakdown, and WOW at that point differential stat.

I agree too on the north-south stuff. That might work against some of the teams on St. X's schedule, but against a team like Colerain you only use it perhaps as a decoy or to set up something else.

[Coletrain06]

It's been fun updating the rivalry since 2000.....

2000 - Colerain 35  St. X 30***

2005 - St. X 7  Colerain 0 ..............St. X 12  Colerain 9 OT***

2006 - Colerain 24 St. X 7 ***

2007 - St. X 29 Colerain 14***

2008 - Colerain 13  St. X 8

2009 - St. X 16 Colerain 0

2010 - St. X 24 Colerain 23***

2011 - St. X 17  Colerain 14.................St. X 28 Colerain 15***

2012 - Colerain 31 St. X 28...............Colerain 35 St. X 14***

2013 - Colerain 31 St. X 19

2014 - St. X 33 Colerain 12..........St. X 29 Colerain 21***

2015 - Colerain 13 St. X 10 OT.............Colerain 42 St. X 14***

2016 - Colerain 20 St. X 14 OT.............St. X 29 Colerain 23 OT***

2017 - St. X 20 Colerain 17 OT

[prepsbill65]

6 hours ago, Coletrain06 said:

It's been fun updating the rivalry since 2000.....

2000 - Colerain 35  St. X 30***

2005 - St. X 7  Colerain 0 ..............St. X 12  Colerain 9 OT***

2006 - Colerain 24 St. X 7 ***

2007 - St. X 29 Colerain 14***

2008 - Colerain 13  St. X 8

2009 - St. X 16 Colerain 0

2010 - St. X 24 Colerain 23***

2011 - St. X 17  Colerain 14.................St. X 28 Colerain 15***

2012 - Colerain 31 St. X 28...............Colerain 35 St. X 14***

2013 - Colerain 31 St. X 19

2014 - St. X 33 Colerain 12..........St. X 29 Colerain 21***

2015 - Colerain 13 St. X 10 OT.............Colerain 42 St. X 14***

2016 - Colerain 20 St. X 14 OT.............St. X 29 Colerain 23 OT***

2017 - St. X 20 Colerain 17 OT

Thanks for laying that out.  Tonight's game will make 6 of the last 7 years these two have played twice in a season. Totally unheard of, especially because they play in two different conferences...and still keep that regular season series alive.  Hat's off to both.

Exceptional series, not sure if this is duplicated anywhere in the country.  Two teams, from different conferences/leagues, that have a continuing home and home in the regular season.... have played this many times in the post season.....this many OT games..........and the margin of victory (total) of less than half a point (0.4).  Enough said.

[concha]

All SW Ohio...

https://www.cincinnati.com/story/sports/high-school/football/ohio-prep-football/2017/11/15/southwest-ohio-all-district-high-school-football-teams-announced/865535001/

 

 

 

[zulu1128]

5 minutes ago, concha said:

All SW Ohio...

https://www.cincinnati.com/story/sports/high-school/football/ohio-prep-football/2017/11/15/southwest-ohio-all-district-high-school-football-teams-announced/865535001/

 

 

 

Man, Xavier Peters got kinda ratfucked on this. 2nd team DL? He's an OLB with numbers at least equal to, if not slightly better than Dan Bolden.

I get that he plays for West, and that's likely some kind of automatic deduction, but jeez.

[Coletrain06]

1 hour ago, zulu1128 said:

Man, Xavier Peters got kinda ratfucked on this. 2nd team DL? He's an OLB with numbers at least equal to, if not slightly better than Dan Bolden.

I get that he plays for West, and that's likely some kind of automatic deduction, but jeez.

This was my first thought when looking at it too. Xavier Peters absolutely deserved first team. 

 

[Coletrain06]

When I was researching Mentor/Iggy history for this week, it kinda struck me how similar it is to X/Colerain.

Both Mentor and Colerain are probably the 2 strongest public schools in Ohio....Both are the Cardinals

both are publics going against the private Jesuit power from their region. 

both started their annual rivalries in 2005.......Both usually meet around week 2 and again in the playoffs.

Great games and rivalries!

 

[concha]

I have seen some chatter that Bacevich and Payne may not be 100% for X. Hope that's not the case.

[Adam Kurkjian]

Any stream for this game? Sorry if I missed it elsewhere.

[Coletrain06]

2 minutes ago, Adam Kurkjian said:

Any stream for this game? Sorry if I missed it elsewhere.

No video unless you have Spectrum.

Pretty dominant first half for Colerain. Should be up 21-6 or 21-3. A defensive holding kept Xs scoring drive alive after  sack that would've forced 4th down, and  a hold negated a 75 yd Td run before half.....

The validity of those calls, I'll leave up to replay to decide

[Mjd33]

11 minutes ago, Adam Kurkjian said:

Any stream for this game? Sorry if I missed it elsewhere.

Yes... same Q!? 

X/Colerain link ? 

[concha]

Ohio playoff games aren't streamed.

[CardinalTruth]

Try and find a way to watch so you can catch the “zebras for the gcl” in action. This is a disgrace 

[concha]

7 minutes ago, CardinalTruth said:

Try and find a way to watch so you can catch the “zebras for the gcl” in action. This is a disgrace 

Are they GCL refs?

[Coletrain06]

5 minutes ago, concha said:

Are they GCL refs?

Most every crew in Cincinnati is.

I don't know but it's atrociously one sided