ECHS05 Posted December 19, 2016 Report Share Posted December 19, 2016 2 hours ago, dntn31 said: I think this reflects 2 things. Small tweaks to the algorithm over the years, and a reflection of the importance of SOS as a component of the algorithm. The more I look into it, the more likely I think it is that you can't really compare teams across years using CalPreps data. Despite this, 2016 BG can probably make the argument due to them having played probably the most grueling OOS schedule ever. 2016 SJB is clearly propped up by it's SOS which is the highest (SOS Value) in the CalPreps era. There's roughly a 0% chance that this 2016 SJB is the 3rd best team in the last 15 years. Of course you cant compare teams from different years... CalPreps says so itself: Those smart enough, can see why the SAME logic and ideal can essentially be compared to different states even in the SAME year... states arent connected to each other because they dont play... IMPORTANT NOTE: Projected scores involving teams from different years should be taken with a very large grain of salt. While it can be fun to see, for example, how your school this year would have done against your school's 2004 team...obviously, there just isn't a way to know that. Our system works on a scale where a team rated a 0 is the average team nationwide. So, a team rated a 21 is 3 TDs better than an average team, but there's absolutely no way to say whether a team rated a 21 in 2016 is better or worse than a team rated a 19 in 2005, mainly because (needless to say!) no teams from 2016 have played any teams from 2005. In other words, there's no way to determine if the entire scale (the country as a whole) is up a bit or down a bit in a particular season. ....... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dntn31 Posted December 19, 2016 Report Share Posted December 19, 2016 More video (highlights start around 1:30) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pops Posted December 19, 2016 Report Share Posted December 19, 2016 2 hours ago, ECHS05 said: Of course you cant compare teams from different years... CalPreps says so itself: Those smart enough, can see why the SAME logic and ideal can essentially be compared to different states even in the SAME year... states arent connected to each other because they dont play... IMPORTANT NOTE: Projected scores involving teams from different years should be taken with a very large grain of salt. While it can be fun to see, for example, how your school this year would have done against your school's 2004 team...obviously, there just isn't a way to know that. Our system works on a scale where a team rated a 0 is the average team nationwide. So, a team rated a 21 is 3 TDs better than an average team, but there's absolutely no way to say whether a team rated a 21 in 2016 is better or worse than a team rated a 19 in 2005, mainly because (needless to say!) no teams from 2016 have played any teams from 2005. In other words, there's no way to determine if the entire scale (the country as a whole) is up a bit or down a bit in a particular season. ....... This is one of only times ECHS is correct regarding calpreps 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
181pl Posted December 19, 2016 Report Share Posted December 19, 2016 Too bad SBJ couldn't have beaten Gorman. They'd have a shot at an MNC because they avenged their only loss. With vigor. SBJ and STA would be a fun game. The STA D would be able to match the speed of the SBJ offense. I'd give a minor edge to SBJ on offense and a substantial edge to STA on D, but it would be probably the best game out there, along with a Gorman rematch, for STA. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrepGridiron Posted December 19, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 19, 2016 5 minutes ago, Pops said: This is one of only times ECHS is correct regarding calpreps Which part that you can't compare years or that the statement regarding comparison of years also carries over to comparison of states. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pops Posted December 19, 2016 Report Share Posted December 19, 2016 56 minutes ago, PrepGridiron said: Which part that you can't compare years or that the statement regarding comparison of years also carries over to comparison of states. Can't compare years to years states to states is something he's gripping hard on, but the interplay is increasing every year, especially among the elite teams to render his theories moot I'll use STA '08 as an example -- they're rating was 69.3. That team is on the short list of discussion of the best hsfb teams of all time. In 2016, 69.3 would fall between #25 St Mary's and #26 Rancho Cucamonga That said, I do believe that there are more elite teams today than there was in 2008 or 1998 -- you have the growth of the Oak Hill/ IMGs in hsfb, BG recruiting from western states, SoCal basically green-lighting all but the most blatant transfers, etc. I can't imagine a team like Starkville, MS (all the kids from one same small town) competing for an MNC again anytime soon. I think even the big TX publics will have trouble keeping pace to the point where TX could realistically have 15 top 100 teams, but no top 5s, which will all be occupied by a similar set of teams from year to year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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