HSFBfan Posted March 14, 2018 Author Report Share Posted March 14, 2018 1 minute ago, Bormio said: The GOP is getting smart - their counties report last. That's what it's looking light. 60% chance of saccone winning according to NYT Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSFBfan Posted March 14, 2018 Author Report Share Posted March 14, 2018 52% chance lamb Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarterBlue Posted March 14, 2018 Report Share Posted March 14, 2018 1 minute ago, HSFBfan said: That's what it's looking light. 60% chance of saccone winning according to NYT Yes, but I am not sure how accurate their forecast is. Very light reporting outside of Allegheny and Greene Counties. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedZone Posted March 14, 2018 Report Share Posted March 14, 2018 https://www.pscp.tv/w/1eaJbpwgadjKX Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSFBfan Posted March 14, 2018 Author Report Share Posted March 14, 2018 1 minute ago, DarterBlue said: Yes, but I am not sure how accurate their forecast is. Very light reporting outside of Allegheny and Greene Counties. NYT usually does a good job when it comes to their prediction as the votes come in. Westmoreland should go all red. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarterBlue Posted March 14, 2018 Report Share Posted March 14, 2018 2 minutes ago, HSFBfan said: 52% chance lamb Exactly. They really have no means of accurately forecasting this at this point. I think until we get to more than 60% reporting spread over all the Counties, we really won't have an accurate basis. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarterBlue Posted March 14, 2018 Report Share Posted March 14, 2018 Just now, HSFBfan said: NYT usually does a good job when it comes to their prediction as the votes come in. Westmoreland should go all red. It may not matter. It will come down to margin. Lamb has outperformed in Allegheny. That may be enough for him to eek out a win. We will see shortly. Either way, it really should not be this close. Not sure if it's a rejection of Trump or if you all just fielded a terrible candidate. I suspect it's a bit of both! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSFBfan Posted March 14, 2018 Author Report Share Posted March 14, 2018 Just now, DarterBlue said: It may not matter. It will come down to margin. Lamb has outperformed in Allegheny. That may be enough for him to eek out a win. We will see shortly. Either way, it really should not be this close. Not sure if it's a rejection of Trump or if you all just fielded a terrible candidate. I suspect it's a bit of both! Saccone apparently a terrible candidate. They even reported Trump talked shit about him. Not everyone is a great fundraiser and orator of a message. Apparently the avg in elections is dems +16 So if rump won by 20 saccone should win by 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarterBlue Posted March 14, 2018 Report Share Posted March 14, 2018 1 minute ago, HSFBfan said: Saccone apparently a terrible candidate. They even reported Trump talked shit about him. Not everyone is a great fundraiser and orator of a message. Apparently the avg in elections is dems +16 So if rump won by 20 saccone should win by 4 He should win by more than 4. It has been forever since the Dems took this seat. A good candidate in a different set of circumstances would win by at least 10. It seems pretty clear that the winner, whoever it is, will win by single digits, perhaps by much less than 4. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSFBfan Posted March 14, 2018 Author Report Share Posted March 14, 2018 Just now, DarterBlue said: He should win by more than 4. It has been forever since the Dems took this seat. A good candidate in a different set of circumstances would win by at least 10. It seems pretty clear that the winner, whoever it is, will win by single digits, perhaps by much less than 4. Could very well be. Could be 1 percentage point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarterBlue Posted March 14, 2018 Report Share Posted March 14, 2018 9 minutes ago, HSFBfan said: NYT usually does a good job when it comes to their prediction as the votes come in. Westmoreland should go all red. I think it comes down to Washington County. If Lamb can keep it close there, he may squeak out the win. If not, then Saccone probably wins a very close race. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSFBfan Posted March 14, 2018 Author Report Share Posted March 14, 2018 2 minutes ago, DarterBlue said: I think it comes down to Washington County. If Lamb can keep it close there, he may squeak out the win. If not, then Saccone probably wins a very close race. I'll pay attention to that county. Saccone up about 100 votes give or take right now. We're already at 60 percent counted. About to get very interesting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bormio Posted March 14, 2018 Report Share Posted March 14, 2018 NE Westmoreland apparently is quite GOP and not reported Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSFBfan Posted March 14, 2018 Author Report Share Posted March 14, 2018 Just now, Bormio said: NE Westmoreland apparently is quite GOP and not reported Most of Westmoreland is not reported Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarterBlue Posted March 14, 2018 Report Share Posted March 14, 2018 5 minutes ago, HSFBfan said: Most of Westmoreland is not reported Yes, but those are light precincts. I think it comes down to Washington County. If Saccone wins the remainder of the precincts there by comfortable margins, he wins. If not, he loses. It is probably as simple as that. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bormio Posted March 14, 2018 Report Share Posted March 14, 2018 The NYT predictor gave up the ghost - this race is close 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSFBfan Posted March 14, 2018 Author Report Share Posted March 14, 2018 Just now, Bormio said: The NYT predictor gave up the ghost - this race is close Was just about to post this. They said their predictor is not reliable right now Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSFBfan Posted March 14, 2018 Author Report Share Posted March 14, 2018 5 minutes ago, DarterBlue said: Yes, but those are light precincts. I think it comes down to Washington County. If Saccone wins the remainder of the precincts there by comfortable margins, he wins. If not, he loses. It is probably as simple as that. Washington very slow to come in. We're gonna be here a while Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarterBlue Posted March 14, 2018 Report Share Posted March 14, 2018 1 minute ago, HSFBfan said: Washington very slow to come in. We're gonna be here a while I see that. It could be another hour before we know. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bormio Posted March 14, 2018 Report Share Posted March 14, 2018 Cohn or Wasserman said the early Washington vote was from Democratic precincts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSFBfan Posted March 14, 2018 Author Report Share Posted March 14, 2018 2 minutes ago, DarterBlue said: I see that. It could be another hour before we know. Could be. GOP in the future better wake up. Better candidates better message. More Trump on the campaign trail Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarterBlue Posted March 14, 2018 Report Share Posted March 14, 2018 1 minute ago, Bormio said: Cohn or Wasserman said the early Washington vote was from Democratic precincts It will come down to margin. Lamb has outperformed in almost all precincts. He will need to do so in the remainder of Washington even if he loses them all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSFBfan Posted March 14, 2018 Author Report Share Posted March 14, 2018 Saccone won Greene county 100 percent reporting by about 700 votes. Very small turnout in Greene county Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarterBlue Posted March 14, 2018 Report Share Posted March 14, 2018 It's down to the wire. Lamb by just over 2,000 votes with 87% in. It is anyone's race at this stage. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSFBfan Posted March 14, 2018 Author Report Share Posted March 14, 2018 Just now, DarterBlue said: It's down to the wire. Lamb by just over 2,000 votes with 87% in. It is anyone's race at this stage. Yes it is and NYT won't bring up the ghost. They are waiting for Westmoreland to keep coming in. All these non presidential years seems like whatever party is not in the WH come out harder than the party that is in the WH Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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