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TheMaximumHornetSting

2018 Hurricane season predicted to be worse than 2017.

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This comes from the UK Oceanic weather center- The European model which is the most accurate. Has been keeping a close watch on Oceanic temperatures and weather conditions. 

They have stated there is a strong chance that 2018 is more active than 2017 and we could see 1 or 2 Hurricanes by the end of April. 

 

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3 minutes ago, TheMaximumHornetSting said:

The European model is ridiculously accurate. 

 

truth...it's the best predictor...

11 year cycle on the waves from them big boys too ..... check it out sometime...at least its the fabled surf call

seems like same 10-12 year cycle but I thought Fla. was a couple year shift after Jersey on that like ~2016~ 2005 etc. for Fla .....~2012  ~2001 ~1990

surfers almanac says we just had our rough cycles....not to say they can spin up the coast all fall and we will cheer them....as long as they don't make any 'left hand turns...

And fyi: I think the European model was the only one to call for a direct jersey hit from sandy.....

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6 hours ago, TheMaximumHornetSting said:

This comes from the UK Oceanic weather center- The European model which is the most accurate. Has been keeping a close watch on Oceanic temperatures and weather conditions. 

They have stated there is a strong chance that 2018 is more active than 2017 and we could see 1 or 2 Hurricanes by the end of April. 

 

Isn't it curious that Europe, which does not have hurricanes, has a better model than the USA, which has a vested interest in getting this right? 

But to the matter at hand, it is but a matter of time before the hurricane season extends from mid Spring through the end of Fall. 

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5 hours ago, TheMaximumHornetSting said:

The European model is ridiculously accurate. 

 

 The page are usually use for weather is Mike’s weather page which is www.spaghettimodels.com 

It’s a great resource and has everything all togetherIt’s a great resource and has everything all together

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6 hours ago, DarterBlue said:

Isn't it curious that Europe, which does not have hurricanes, has a better model than the USA, which has a vested interest in getting this right? 

But to the matter at hand, it is but a matter of time before the hurricane season extends from mid Spring through the end of Fall. 

Great i need a new state

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5 hours ago, DarterBlue said:

Isn't it curious that Europe, which does not have hurricanes, has a better model than the USA, which has a vested interest in getting this right? 

But to the matter at hand, it is but a matter of time before the hurricane season extends from mid Spring through the end of Fall. 

European model does not care if they are wrong enough, to incorporate new data appropriately, as it becomes available...

local forecasts are always tied to their own latest forecast...they always err on the side of 'what we just said before' so that they don't look so inept...

Easiest way to interpret a forecast is to watch the delta changes as a storm approaches....

- if forecast timing is pushed up (accelerating) , you can be sure it will accelerate more than stated, and vice versa for delay/deceleration.

- Same for precipitation amounts etc. , look for the delta changes and factor OUT the hedge that forecasters factor IN (to cover their own asses).

or just look at the satellite composite map in motion....everything you need to see right there...and better than any 6 o'clock news forecast (imbedded with the obligatory go spend money, it's gonna be a nice weekend  and such type cheerleading)...

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12 hours ago, dbcaptiron said:

truth...it's the best predictor...

11 year cycle on the waves from them big boys too ..... check it out sometime...at least its the fabled surf call

seems like same 10-12 year cycle but I thought Fla. was a couple year shift after Jersey on that like ~2016~ 2005 etc. for Fla .....~2012  ~2001 ~1990

surfers almanac says we just had our rough cycles....not to say they can spin up the coast all fall and we will cheer them....as long as they don't make any 'left hand turns...

And fyi: I think the European model was the only one to call for a direct jersey hit from sandy.....

You ever been to Mavericks?  Do You or have you surfed big waves?  If you do or don't, you should check it out if you come to Cali.  It is impressive, if you like the big waves.  

 

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48 minutes ago, World Citizen said:

You ever been to Mavericks?  Do You or have you surfed big waves?  If you do or don't, you should check it out if you come to Cali.  It is impressive, if you like the big waves.  

 

Yes I have been to Mavericks. Before it was even a name...

You must know the story of the 13 yo kid as the only one making that endless paddle out...for several years then....that’s sicker than the waves there....

surfed steamers lane, SF, and everything else down to k38? In Baja...

Best of the biggest I found in Cali was at a place the locals called ‘Fullers’....

at a 15 to 18 swell with 25-30 ft clean faces ....perfection with no lineup

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2 hours ago, World Citizen said:

You ever been to Mavericks?  Do You or have you surfed big waves?  If you do or don't, you should check it out if you come to Cali.  It is impressive, if you like the big waves.  

 

I can't surf. 

I wish I could. 

I'd move to Hawaii...

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1 hour ago, TheMaximumHornetSting said:

I can't surf. 

I wish I could. 

I'd move to Hawaii...

I've never tried. 😕  

But I'm sure I would look great on one.  Or at least walking around with a board.   😏  

Hawaii huh? Ok.  That would be cool.  When I was a kid, my sister ran away and when she came back she got sent to her father's in Hawaii as punishment.  Poor kid.  

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3 hours ago, dbcaptiron said:

Yes I have been to Mavericks. Before it was even a name...

You must know the story of the 13 yo kid as the only one making that endless paddle out...for several years then....that’s sicker than the waves there....

surfed steamers lane, SF, and everything else down to k38? In Baja...

Best of the biggest I found in Cali was at a place the locals called ‘Fullers’....

at a 15 to 18 swell with 25-30 ft clean faces ....perfection with no lineup

Where is Fullers?  

I heard that guy surfed Mavericks for 20 years before it became the spot.  Amazing.  All by himself too.  

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8 minutes ago, World Citizen said:

I've never tried. 😕  

But I'm sure I would look great on one.  Or at least walking around with a board.   😏  

Hawaii huh? Ok.  That would be cool.  When I was a kid, my sister ran away and when she came back she got sent to her father's in Hawaii as punishment.  Poor kid.  

What type of punishment is that? 

A punishment would be having to stay with your uncle for 4 months In the middle of nowhere North Dakota... 

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1 minute ago, TheMaximumHornetSting said:

What type of punishment is that? 

A punishment would be having to stay with your uncle for 4 months In the middle of nowhere North Dakota... 

Right?  That was my thinking.   But as it turns out she was happy to come home after 6 months.  Grass isn't always greener.  

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3 hours ago, World Citizen said:

Where is Fullers?  

I heard that guy surfed Mavericks for 20 years before it became the spot.  Amazing.  All by himself too.  

Somewhere close to the light house at Santa Cruz/Big Sur.  We were on our way north chasing the waves and we spotted this cut from the cliffs that had a 'scenic overlook' parking spot off 1.  Thought it was just south but could be north of it.  saw two guys out on what looked like tiny waves from the cliffs, but it only took one wave to see the quadruple overhead wave stand up.  They seemingly were coming out of nowhere, as the whole kelp bed on the outside would just shift out and down and then monster swells just stood up from no real big lines on the horizon...

Grabbed our boards and found a long hike trail down the cliffs....best big waves I ever got on the west coast....(Huntington , Malibu, Trestles...even Big Sur and Maverics not near as good....though technicallv I think we may have still been in what's considered 'big sur' or Monterey Bay...not sure

As far as 20 years solo for that kid, i don't think it was that long...guessing maybe 5 or so?  The kid was a friend of Kenny's (as in Bradshaw if you know any old school big wave surfers).  Kenny and Laird  (no last name required) used to roll into Seaside when the pro surfing tour had a stop there. Ken was dating my Lifeguard partner's sister at the time and we used to see them on the surfing beach I guarded a lot.  He was a sick fuck on a motorcycle that's for sure...

Not really trying to namedrop to sound cool or anything, but the reason why i bring it up is simple.  I think it was Gibberish or another Fla surfer who kook cried BS, when I told him the biggest wave I ever surfed was in NJ (really not surprising since 90% of all my surfing was done there).  I've got big waves in several places, but always north.  You can't compare Trestles to Big Sur just like you can't compare Sebastian inlet to Manasquan inlet.   Kooks from Fla always think they know what 'big' surf is LOL.

As far as my biggest wave ever ridden....yes it was also my worst wipeout ever, as it was a screaming left mountain that I could only manage a quick bottom turn and run ....race..till it swallowed me whole and probably kept me down a full minute or two.  It was on a day we called 'garbage day' as the swell brought some shit on shore.  Beaches were all closed (with us keeping people out) and the state troopers were rolling up and down clearing as well....interesting convo between the state trooper and my partner who was captain at the time....'get those surfers out of there...' (pointing to half the lifeguard crew, only ones out LOL )...my buddy....how do you suggest we do that? LOL.      Anyways...that wave was the biggest of the day on a freakish set.  It was called at 25 ft Hawaiian and as big as anything you can paddle into in Hawaii by a real 'Hawaiian big wave surfer'  (yes whitey boy Laird is a native Hawaiian) .....I just call it what they called it as that's always been accepted as a 'conservative' estimate...

I think they get into the mavericks kid story some in a movie that Laird and Bradshaw did called 'Riding Giants'....a decent chronicle of big wave surfing that can be watched by everyone (not just a splash flick, has some decent history and stories told).   Just a suggestion if big waves or surfing interests you....

EDIT: found a preview for that movie...VVVV....

 

 

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