GAs 2018 OOS Games Predicted by CalPreps (Preseason)

ECHS05 · July 12, 2018

Statistically, if the computer is completely unbiased and perfectly scaled ... There should be a 50-50 chance for all predicted games. And Georgias + / - should be close to zero when comparing results vs predictions ... The thing is , every season Georgia always outperforms preseason, midseason, and postseason predictions, which should not be the case if its scaled correctly... There should be just as much of a chance that the computer picks Georgia to under perform in its games as there is for it to out perform... Which simply does not happen.

Lets see how bad the preseason predictions are this season ... My guess is the predictions this season are a little better than normal/most previous years. Because Georgias teams have been scaled upward it appears this preseason, atleast at the top... But lets do it anyway.

I will definitely give Ned credit for adding in a way to better scale states by way of OOS game results (which is the only way its possible).

(Theres a few more lower level games I am going to add over time)

vs. Alabama: (CP projects GA to go 2-3 in these games vs Alabama)

CP Proj.: Cedar Grove GA 31, Hewitt-Trussville AL 28 ... GA +3

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

CP Proj.: Central (Phenix City) AL 44, Mays GA 17 ... GA -27

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

CP Proj.: Westlake GA 24, Sidney Lanier AL 17 ... GA +7

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

CP Proj.: Clay-Chalkville AL 28, Griffin GA 10 ... GA -18

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

CP Proj.: Hewitt-Trussville AL 42, West Forsyth GA 14 ... GA -28

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

CP Proj.: Montgomery Academy AL 27, Brookstone GA 19 ... GA -8

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

CP Proj.: Harris Co. GA 31, Russell Co. AL 6 ... GA +25

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

vs. Maryland/DC:

CP Proj.: St. John's DC 31, Marietta GA 13 ... GA -18

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

CP Proj.: St. John's DC 62, Johns Creek GA 0 ... GA -62

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

CP Proj.: Marietta GA 31, Good Counsel MD 14 ...GA +17

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

vs. Florida:

CP Proj.: Wekiva FL 26, North Gwinnett GA 20 ... GA -6

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

CP Proj.: Cardinal Gibbons FL 34, Milton GA 17 ... GA -17

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

CP Proj.: Lee Co. GA 19, Dr. Phillips FL 17 ... GA +2 (this is an interesting one)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

CP Proj.: Bartram Trail FL 41, Brunswick GA 24 ... GA -17

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

CP Proj.: Buford GA 28, Deerfield Beach FL 21 ... GA +7

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

CP Proj.: Deerfield Beach FL 44, Westlake GA 0 ... GA -44

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

CP Proj.: Lowndes GA 38, Lincoln FL 28 ... GA +10

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

CP Proj.: Coffee GA 44, Taravella FL 7 ... GA +37

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

CP Proj.: Ware Co. GA 35, Pine Ridge FL 3 ... GA +32

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

CP Proj.: Bolles FL 28, New Hampstead GA 26 ... GA -2

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

CP Proj.: Lincoln FL 31, Bainbridge GA 21 ... GA -10

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

vs. Missouri:

CP Proj.: Colquitt Co. GA 22, Trinity Catholic MO 17 ... GA +5

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

vs. New Jersey:

CP Proj.: Grayson GA 31, Bergen Catholic NJ 20 ... GA +11

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

vs. North Carolina:

CP Proj.: Charlotte Christian NC 38, Pace Academy GA 6 ... GA -32

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

CP Proj.: Towns Co. GA 28, Hayesville NC 13 ... GA +15

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

CP Proj.: Towns Co. GA 38, Andrews NC 6 ... GA +32

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

vs. South Carolina:

CP Proj.: Fort Dorchester SC 28, Glynn Academy GA 24 ... GA -4

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

CP Proj.: Archer GA 35, Spartanburg SC 6 ... GA +29

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

CP Proj.: Cedar Grove GA 35, Summerville SC 6 ... GA +29

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

CP Proj.: Wren SC 24, Camden Co. GA 22 ... GA -2

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

CP Proj.: Abbeville SC 28, Lincoln Co. GA 10 ... GA -18

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

CP Proj.: Lincoln Co. GA 38, McCormick SC 6 ... GA +32

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

CP Proj.: Savannah Christian GA 27, Oceanside Collegiate SC 14 ... GA +13

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

CP Proj.: Calvary Day GA 49, St. Johns SC 0 ... GA +49

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

CP Proj.: Wayne Co. GA 28, Beaufort SC 14 ... GA +14

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

vs. Tennessee:

CP Proj.: Marist GA 27, Baylor (Chatt.) TN 8 ... GA +19

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

CP Proj.: McCallie TN 28, West Forsyth GA 21 ... GA -7

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

vs. Texas:

CP Proj.: Prestonwood Christian TX 28, Greater Atl. Christian GA 21 ... GA -7

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

HawgGoneIt · July 12, 2018

It predicts Colquitt +5 over Trinity Catholic? Screwy ass computer stuff man.

It has Colquitt currently #23 in the country.

<< NATIONAL #23 >>

Colquitt County (Norman Park, GA) previews home

GENERAL
Nickname: Packers
Colors: Black/Gold
Coach: Rush Propst
League: AAAAAAA Region 1
Playoff Division: AAAAAAA
Playoff Division Rank*: #3

ECHS05 · July 12, 2018

4 minutes ago, HawgGoneIt said:

It predicts Colquitt +5 over Trinity Catholic? Screwy ass computer stuff man.

It has Colquitt currently #23 in the country.

<< NATIONAL #23 >>

Colquitt County (Norman Park, GA) previews home

GENERAL
Nickname: Packers
Colors: Black/Gold
Coach: Rush Propst
League: AAAAAAA Region 1
Playoff Division: AAAAAAA
Playoff Division Rank*: #3

Thats old... Colquitt is #35 now with a 60.3 rating.

Trinity Catholic is #98 with a 49.2 rating

35

Colquitt County (Norman Park, GA) team preview trend

Georgia

HawgGoneIt · July 12, 2018

1 minute ago, ECHS05 said:

Thats old... Colquitt is #35 now with a 60.3 rating.

Trinity Catholic is #98 with a 49.2 rating

Not old. I just got it directly from their site. Just now.

Including this...

TOP 25 COMPARISON (talent-only based vs SOS factored in)

*based only on our perception of how "good" teams are*

#1 IMG Academy (Bradenton, FL)	#1 IMG Academy (Bradenton, FL)
#2 St. John Bosco (Bellflower, CA)	#2 St. John Bosco (Bellflower, CA)
#3 Mater Dei (Santa Ana, CA)	#3 Mater Dei (Santa Ana, CA)
#4 St. Frances Academy (Baltimore, MD)	#4 St. John's (Washington, DC)
#5 Aquinas [St. Thomas] (Fort Lauderdale, FL)	#5 Lutheran (Orange, CA)
#6 St. John's (Washington, DC)	#6 Allen (TX)
#7 Folsom (CA)	#7 Folsom (CA)
#8 St. Louis (Honolulu, HI)	#8 St. Louis (Honolulu, HI)
#9 Lutheran (Orange, CA)	#9 St. Frances Academy (Baltimore, MD)
#10 Chandler (AZ)	#10 Aquinas [St. Thomas] (Fort Lauderdale, FL)
#11 University Lab (Baton Rouge, LA)	#11 Bishop Dunne (Dallas, TX)
#12 Mission Viejo (CA)	#12 Oaks Christian (Westlake Village, CA)
#13 Oaks Christian (Westlake Village, CA)	#13 Serra [Junipero] (Gardena, CA)
#14 Serra [Junipero] (Gardena, CA)	#14 North Little Rock (AR)
#15 Archbishop Hoban (Akron, OH)	#15 Chandler (AZ)
#16 Allen (TX)	#16 Mission Viejo (CA)
#17 Grayson (Loganville, GA)	#17 Marietta (GA)
#18 Cajon (San Bernardino, CA)	#18 Grayson (Loganville, GA)
#19 Upland (CA)	#19 Pittsburg (CA)
#20 Marietta (GA)	#20 Bergen Catholic (Oradell, NJ)
#21 Narbonne [Nathaniel] (Harbor City, CA)	#21 Cajon (San Bernardino, CA)
#22 Cardinal Gibbons (Fort Lauderdale, FL)	#22 Newton (TX)
#23 Rome (GA)	#23 Colquitt County (Norman Park, GA)
#24 De La Salle (Concord, CA)	#24 Bingham (South Jordan, UT)
#25 North Little Rock (AR)	#25 Punahou (Honolulu, HI)

ECHS05 · July 12, 2018

Go to their actual rankings...

http://calpreps.com/2018/ratings/National_all.htm

Thats what matters. You were in their "National Preview"... It doesnt update from all appearances.

HawgGoneIt · July 12, 2018

2 minutes ago, ECHS05 said:

Go to their actual rankings...

http://calpreps.com/2018/ratings/National_all.htm

Thats what matters. You were in their "National Preview"... It doesnt update from all appearances.

Ahh. I see. Tricky tricky and confusing.

Columbiafan · July 12, 2018

Wow I'm surprised

Bartram trail didn't look that good when we shut them down with ease back in May

Brunswick must be really down

And if lowndes only wins by 10 then they don't deserve to even sniff national top 100 this year

HawgGoneIt · July 12, 2018

2 minutes ago, Columbiafan said:

Wow I'm surprised

Bartram trail didn't look that good when we shut them down with ease back in May

Brunswick must be really down

And if lowndes only wins by 10 then they don't deserve to even sniff national top 100 this year

Nah. It's trash in trash out right now with that screwy computer stuff man.

I do think that ECHS has pretty much proven that some states are undervalued in the computer scaling by using this technique though. It sounds good anyway.

Columbiafan · July 12, 2018

Then again calpreps put bartram in top 20 in FL and had us back around 40 even though we were clearly far superior when we played

It wasn't just a win. It was a beatdown

We went down field easily while starters were in and held them to 2 field goals, bartram didn't score a td until backups were in for both teams 😂

HawgGoneIt · July 12, 2018

Not trying to take this thread off course or anything, but...

The computer isn't "thinking" very highly of Tift, Lowndes or Valdosta this season, at least at this point. It has Trinity Catholic rating ahead of both of them.

08/18   at McEachern (Powder Springs, GA) [opponent rating: 56.3]

08/25   vs Trinity Catholic (St. Louis, MO) [opponent rating: 49.2]

08/31   vs Thomasville (GA) [opponent rating: 18.6]

09/07   vs Valdosta (GA) [opponent rating: 21.2]

09/14   at Warner Robins (GA) [opponent rating: 36.3]

09/21   at Grayson (Loganville, GA) [opponent rating: 71.1]

09/28   vs Alcovy (Covington, GA) [opponent rating: -1.6]

10/12   vs Camden County (Kingsland, GA) [opponent rating: 10.4]

10/19   at Tift County (Tifton, GA) [opponent rating: 34.6]

Columbiafan · July 12, 2018

1 minute ago, HawgGoneIt said:

Nah. It's trash in trash out right now with that screwy computer stuff man.

I do think that ECHS has pretty much proven that some states are undervalued in the computer scaling by using this technique though. It sounds good anyway.

Perhaps and I'm not faulting his effort

I just think these projections don't look right, i can tell just by looking at the FL ones that calpreps numbers are going to need to be adjusted very early into the season

BUFORDGAWOLVES · July 12, 2018

1 minute ago, HawgGoneIt said:

Not trying to take this thread off course or anything, but...

The computer isn't "thinking" very highly of Tift, Lowndes or Valdosta this season, at least at this point. It has Trinity Catholic rating ahead of both of them.

08/18   at McEachern (Powder Springs, GA) [opponent rating: 56.3]

08/25   vs Trinity Catholic (St. Louis, MO) [opponent rating: 49.2]

08/31   vs Thomasville (GA) [opponent rating: 18.6]

09/07   vs Valdosta (GA) [opponent rating: 21.2]

09/14   at Warner Robins (GA) [opponent rating: 36.3]

09/21   at Grayson (Loganville, GA) [opponent rating: 71.1]

09/28   vs Alcovy (Covington, GA) [opponent rating: -1.6]

10/12   vs Camden County (Kingsland, GA) [opponent rating: 10.4]

10/19   at Tift County (Tifton, GA) [opponent rating: 34.6]

Well, Tift and Lowdnes are down due to graduation losses. Camden looks to be 3 years away from being a concern.

AMIRITE or no?

BGW

HawgGoneIt · July 12, 2018

1 minute ago, BUFORDGAWOLVES said:

Well, Tift and Lowdnes are down due to graduation losses. Camden looks to be 3 years away from being a concern.

AMIRITE or no?

BGW

Tift is likely off a bit. Lowndes is never really off imo. They graduate some but, they still got some too. Camden probably at least another year. I wouldn't be too surprised if they're much improved this season.

TheMaximumHornetSting · July 12, 2018

Ima go ahead a nip this in the nuts.

The New Hampstead HC is a good well meanimg man.

But Bolles is gonna smoke them

Its gonna be a 42-7 type game...

ECHS05 · July 12, 2018

1 minute ago, TheMaximumHornetSting said:

Ima go ahead a nip this in the nuts.

The New Hampstead HC is a good well meanimg man.

But Bolles is gonna smoke them

Its gonna be a 42-7 type game...

Bolles isnt what they were.

TheMaximumHornetSting · July 12, 2018

Dont get me wrong I'd like nothing more than to see a Savannah area public beat a respectable FL team.

But this is just one of those times where you wish in one hand and shit in the other...

TheMaximumHornetSting · July 12, 2018

Just now, ECHS05 said:

Bolles isnt what they were.

What happened to Bolles?

ECHS05 · July 12, 2018

I think the computers are overrating Cedar Grove a bit... They dont have the overall FBS talent they normally do, even with Jadon Haselwood.

Theyll be pretty good, but I doubt they beat Hewitt-Trussville.

Columbiafan · July 12, 2018

8 minutes ago, TheMaximumHornetSting said:

What happened to Bolles?

Trinity Christian starting getting duval best athletes instead of Bolles

Bolles still gets good athletes but nothing like they used to

Texasball · July 12, 2018

1 hour ago, HawgGoneIt said:

Not old. I just got it directly from their site. Just now.

Including this...

TOP 25 COMPARISON (talent-only based vs SOS factored in)

based only on our perception of how "good" teams are

#1 IMG Academy (Bradenton, FL) #1 IMG Academy (Bradenton, FL)
#2 St. John Bosco (Bellflower, CA) #2 St. John Bosco (Bellflower, CA)
#3 Mater Dei (Santa Ana, CA) #3 Mater Dei (Santa Ana, CA)
#4 St. Frances Academy (Baltimore, MD) #4 St. John's (Washington, DC)
#5 Aquinas [St. Thomas] (Fort Lauderdale, FL) #5 Lutheran (Orange, CA)
#6 St. John's (Washington, DC) #6 Allen (TX)
#7 Folsom (CA) #7 Folsom (CA)
#8 St. Louis (Honolulu, HI) #8 St. Louis (Honolulu, HI)
#9 Lutheran (Orange, CA) #9 St. Frances Academy (Baltimore, MD)
#10 Chandler (AZ) #10 Aquinas [St. Thomas] (Fort Lauderdale, FL)
#11 University Lab (Baton Rouge, LA) #11 Bishop Dunne (Dallas, TX)
#12 Mission Viejo (CA) #12 Oaks Christian (Westlake Village, CA)
#13 Oaks Christian (Westlake Village, CA) #13 Serra [Junipero] (Gardena, CA)
#14 Serra [Junipero] (Gardena, CA) #14 North Little Rock (AR)
#15 Archbishop Hoban (Akron, OH) #15 Chandler (AZ)
#16 Allen (TX) #16 Mission Viejo (CA)
#17 Grayson (Loganville, GA) #17 Marietta (GA)
#18 Cajon (San Bernardino, CA) #18 Grayson (Loganville, GA)
#19 Upland (CA) #19 Pittsburg (CA)
#20 Marietta (GA) #20 Bergen Catholic (Oradell, NJ)
#21 Narbonne [Nathaniel] (Harbor City, CA) #21 Cajon (San Bernardino, CA)
#22 Cardinal Gibbons (Fort Lauderdale, FL) #22 Newton (TX)
#23 Rome (GA) #23 Colquitt County (Norman Park, GA)
#24 De La Salle (Concord, CA) #24 Bingham (South Jordan, UT)
#25 North Little Rock (AR) #25 Punahou (Honolulu, HI)

Why do any of you waste time bogus polls.

i love me some Newton TX with not even 300 students in the HS ranked at #22 - lol.

Its all Bogus including Newton’s national ranking.

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