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Stanscript, golf... on the playoff boost...


ECHS05

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I wanted to make a new post to explain what we were talking about... and stan, to explain why I believe you can make some corrections to the way you were doing the playoffs.

Stanscript,

Lets make a pretend scenario...so I can better explain why your way technically isnt right.

Lets say, a team has 9 Bolded Regular Season games, and only 1 Bolded Playoff game because they lost... 

Your way would make that 1 single playoff game mean twice as much as 9 Bolded Regular season games...

Where as in my way... 1 Playoff game would be 2.1 of 11.1 ... or to put it into percentages, that playoff game would be 18.92% of their rating, where as each individual regular season game accounts for 9.009% of the rating ... (where as if all games were counted equal, and there were 10 total bolded game, each would be 10% of the total)

This way the playoff game would be given the proper weight ... and if you wanted to do it the way you are... the proper way in this scenario would be ...

1 Playoff game Average × .1892

9 Regular season Avg x .8108

(.1892+.8108 = 1.000)

 

If theres 2 Bolded Playoff games and 9 Bolded Regular Season games... itd be 4.2 + 9 = 13.2 ... 4.2 of 13.2 is 31.82% (so the 2 playoff games are 31.82% of the PR)

So if theres 11 total bolded games, 2 are playoff games and 9 regular season games.... the playoff games would be 31.82% of the final PR and the regular season games would be the other 68.18%

So youd do

2 Playoff game average × .3182

9 Regular season avg × .6818

(This means each individual playoff game is worth 15.91%, while each individual regular season game is worth only 7.576%)

 

Want me to make up some #s and try it?

 

Does this all make sense to you?

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Heres a post showing where mine is much closer because of the way I do it... and one where yours is off, stan, because of you giving 1 playoff game too much weight...

...

Lets try this team.. the target rating is 44.1 (their end rating)

Heres my way (ECHS)

57.4 + 28.4 + 49.1 + 55.3 + 44.6 + 63.4 + 58.7 + (44.2×2.1) + (23.8×2.1) = 499.7

7 + 4.2 = 11.2 

499.7 / 11.2 = 44.62

Only .52 off

 

====

And Stanscripts Way ...

356.9/7 = 50.9857142857 × .32258 = 16.4469717143

68/2 = 34 × .67742 = 23.03228

16.4469717143 + 23.03228 = ~39.48

You are off by 4.62 here... while im only off by .52... theres a reason for this.

Your way is making the playoffs worth 2.1 times more, not just each game.. but the entire playoffs.... if a team only plays 1 playoff game, but has 9 regular season games... you are still making that 1 playoff game mean over twice what those 9 regular season games will... its the flaw in yours... that can get you close sometimes, but its technically not correct.

My way I can make each individual game equal exactly what I want it to...

 

 

This team was Norcross GA btw...

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