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ELO hybrid rating system - Revised


golfaddict1

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Latest revision with some top teams added so far.   My cutoff currently is CalPreps teams rated to #350.   Not sure if SFA has an opponent in this range this season... 

Had Mater Dei not forfeited a game and I used the 42-14 score, MD would be leading this list with a Total of 741.5 points.  As it stands now, they are at 690.5... I gave MD a loss and did not touch ELO points for that game (same for Amat when I tally them eventually).   ELO rating, Win-Loss record, differential, SOS (team's and it's opponents) and top opponent win boosts factored in.  

School ELO W pts OT W pts OT L pts Total G Avg. Team Team Win Opp. Opp. Win SOS Rating Differential SOS Total PF PA Diff. top 10 top 25 top 100 top 250 top 350 Top 5 top 10 top 25
                      W's L's pct. W's L's pct.                 W-L W-L W-L W-L W-L Boost x 3 Boost x 2 Boost x 1
SJB 1723 3 15 0 0 0 0 15 3 5.00 3 0 1.000 2 5 0.286 0.6154 516.90 123 83.077 737.98 157 34 123 0-0 0-0 2-0 3-0 3-0      
Corona Cent 1745 4 20 0 0 0 0 20 4 5.00 4 0 1.000 6 4 0.600 0.7778 523.50 86 105.000 734.50 157 71 86 0-0 0-0 2-0 4-0 4-0      
DLS 1688 4 20 0 0 0 0 20 4 5.00 4 0 1.000 4 2 0.667 0.8571 506.40 45 115.714 713.61 105 60 45 0-0 1-0 3-0 3-0 3-0     26.5
Mater Dei 1605 2 10 0 0 0 0 10 3 3.33 2 1 0.667 3 6 0.333 0.4667 481.50 46 63.000 690.50 70 24 46 1-0 1-0 2-1 2-1 2-1 90    
SJC 1632 2 10 1 1 0 0 11 3 3.67 3 0 1.000 4 4 0.500 0.7143 489.60 38 96.429 685.03 100 62 38 1-0 1-0 3-0 3-0 3-0   50  
IMG 1616 2 10 0 0 0 0 10 3 3.33 2 1 0.667 2 4 0.333 0.5000 484.80 73 67.500 635.30 101 28 73 0-1 0-1 1-1 2-1 2-1      
SFA 1500 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00 0 0 0.0000 0 0 0.0000 0.0000 0 0 0.000 0 0 0 0 - - - - -      
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Rating W pts OT W pts OT L pts Total G Avg. Team Team Win Opp. Opp. Win SOS Rating % Differential SOS% Total PF PA Diff. top 10 top 25 top 100 top 250 top 350 Top 5 top 10 top 25
                    W's L's pct. W's L's pct.                 W-L W-L W-L W-L W-L Boost x 3 Boost x 2 Boost x 1
1688 4 20 0 0 0 0 20 4 5.00 4 0 1.000 4 2 0.667 0.8889 506.40 45 120.000 697.90 105 60 45 0-0 1-0 3-0 3-0 3-0     26.5
                                                               
Opponent   For Against Pts CP rating                                                    
                                                               
Folsom W 14 0 53 12                                                    
The Bishop W 27 21 37 88                                                    
Buchanon W 31 24 40 114                                                    
St. Francis W 33 15 58 194                                                    
                                                               
Opponent's Opponents
                                                             
State rating   10 25 100 250 350 350+                                                
Folsom 5 0-0 0-0 1-0 2-0 2-0  
Opponents: Chaminade, Oak Ridge, DLS
                                             
BG 2 0-1 0-1 0-2 1-2 1-2  
Opponents:
 
Orem, Mater Dei, DLS, Centennial AZ
                                         
Buchanon 16 0-0 0-0 0-0 1-0 1-0  
Opponents:
 
Liberty CA, DLS
                                         
St. Francis 31 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0  
Opponents: DLS
                                             

 

Team sheet example - DLS    (hopefully this shows somewhat normal)  

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32 minutes ago, Sammyswordsman said:

Interesting but why are you dicking around by giving MD a loss to Amat.  Please stick to results on the field.  No one on this board cares about forfeits.

It counts as a loss but Amat won’t receive any points or bonus pts... the W and L in this current setup is not the majority, ELO points are.  They lose a little strength, but dot the i’s and cross the t’s, when you have a shitload of transfers annually, don’t just admin the 4-5 Star kids.  :)  

I will eventually use the comp poll top 50.  And from 51 to 350 I think CP is fair enough as a starting point.   I suppose at season’s end I can use the avg of Fisher, Massey and Calpreps for 51-100.  And from 101-350 I’d rather use CP solo.  Massey’s is a bit odd and frankly Freeman imo has a better state scale representation imo.  

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22 minutes ago, golfaddict1 said:

It counts as a loss but Amat won’t receive any points or bonus pts... the W and L in this current setup is not the majority, ELO points are.  They lose a little strength, but dot the i’s and cross the t’s, when you have a shitload of transfers annually, don’t just admin the 4-5 Star kids.  :)  

I will eventually use the comp poll top 50.  And from 51 to 350 I think CP is fair enough as a starting point.   I suppose at season’s end I can use the avg of Fisher, Massey and Calpreps for 51-100.  And from 101-350 I’d rather use CP solo.  Massey’s is a bit odd and frankly Freeman imo has a better state scale representation imo.  

Mater Dei (like many schools) has transfers that are not related to Football.  Relocated students, other sport transfers, girls sports etc. etc. etc.  probably 200+ transfers in and out each year.  One slips through and the "T is not crossed", has no bearing on the power ranking of their football team. 

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