The Characteristics of Bear Markets and what to Expect

[DarterBlue]

4 minutes ago, HSFBfan said:

Apparently I'm having a very bad day 

Right? Certainly seems like it!

[HSFBfan]

Just now, DarterBlue said:

Right? Certainly seems like it!

As these are my opinions and my opinions can change. It's good to have something of an open mind on something but there are things that just doesnt make sense or in my mind works. 

[ohio]

7 minutes ago, HSFBfan said:

It is what it is. Like I said I knew I would be called wrong. I anticipated that from the start. My opinions are not going to change the way things are traded or whatever. 

I'm just teasing you a little.  So, don't take it negatively.

Look.  You're a good sport who wants to see some normalcy in prices of items.  It's just that when things get regulated a little too much, capitalism does not work as well as it should.

The markets will always rise and fall, so it's smart to profit when they go too far one way or another.  But in the end things do work out for the best.

I'm gonna go for a little walk, then go to work. 

We'll talk some other time.

[HSFBfan]

5 minutes ago, ohio said:

I'm just teasing you a little.  So, don't take it negatively.

Look.  You're a good sport who wants to see some normalcy in prices of items.  It's just that when things get regulated a little too much, capitalism does not work as well as it should.

The markets will always rise and fall, so it's smart to profit when they go too far one way or another.  But in the end things do work out for the best.

I'm gonna go for a little walk, then go to work. 

We'll talk some other time.

Later

[ohio]

20 minutes ago, DarterBlue said:

Most households don't take advantage of the best game in town! Funny thing is many of these are the biggest supporters of capitalism when the way to get rich under capitalism is to be an investor. 

Talk about ironies!

Did you notice that the highest percentage of peoples net worth comes from equity in their homes? 

So, people who live in apartments probably have a smaller net worth.  Better to be a home owner than a renter.

[HSFBfan]

3 minutes ago, ohio said:

Did you notice that the highest percentage of peoples net worth comes from equity in their homes? 

So, people who live in apartments probably have a smaller net worth.  Better to be a home owner than a renter.

Another huge problem in America. Another baby bomber created disaster. I'm sure darter can speak on this

[DarterBlue]

20 minutes ago, HSFBfan said:

Another huge problem in America. Another baby bomber created disaster. I'm sure darter can speak on this

One of the biggest reason home ownership lags among the young is the enormous amount of student debt the younger generation was forced to take out and the shoddy jobs they got when they graduated. It is a big part of the problem.

[HSFBfan]

1 minute ago, DarterBlue said:

One of the biggest reason home ownership lags among the young is the enormous amount of student debt the younger generation was forced to take out and the shoddy jobs they got when they graduated. It is a big part of the problem.

As well as the price of homes

It was reported in the wSJ that home prices will no longer be part of student loans. Meaning that you'll get assistance based on salaries not the value of your house 

Another issue is that were just not interested in owning houses. Big part of my generation is just simply not interested 

[DarterBlue]

14 minutes ago, HSFBfan said:

As well as the price of homes

It was reported in the wSJ that home prices will no longer be part of student loans. Meaning that you'll get assistance based on salaries not the value of your house 

Another issue is that were just not interested in owning houses. Big part of my generation is just simply not interested 

It's hard to be a homeowner if every few years you have to pick up and move because of your job situation. There is also less incentive if you are not married and don't have kids. 

[HSFBfan]

Just now, DarterBlue said:

It's hard to be a homeowner if every few years you have to pick up and move because of your job situation. There is also less incentive if you are not married and don't have kids. 

Bingo and my generation is not having kids like previous generations. 

Your not buying a house because of the schools because you dont have kids. No reason to pay all these taxes. Etc etc 

[DarterBlue]

1 minute ago, HSFBfan said:

Bingo and my generation is not having kids like previous generations. 

Your not buying a house because of the schools because you dont have kids. No reason to pay all these taxes. Etc etc 

But it makes the country less stable and with declining population that puts a check on growth. 

[HSFBfan]

Just now, DarterBlue said:

But it makes the country less stable and with declining population that puts a check on growth. 

That's ok. Less population means more opportunities for the people who are here. And we can focus on jobs. And our lives instead of now having to worry about kids

[ohio]

On 12/14/2018 at 1:45 PM, DarterBlue said:

One of the biggest reason home ownership lags among the young is the enormous amount of student debt the younger generation was forced to take out and the shoddy jobs they got when they graduated. It is a big part of the problem.

Also, home prices are starting to skyrocket again.  Recently from an average low of 260K in 2012 to 390K in the 3rd Quarter of this year.   https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ASPUS.

Now if Millennials plan on living in the Midwest or South, then they can afford to buy a home or a condo in the near future, but if they plan on living in either coast then they have little or on chance without the help of their parents.

New graduates do get the lowest paying, shoddiest jobs.  So that does not help them either.

[ohio]

On 12/14/2018 at 2:01 PM, DarterBlue said:

It's hard to be a homeowner if every few years you have to pick up and move because of your job situation. There is also less incentive if you are not married and don't have kids. 

True.  If one has a job like that, then it's probably better to rent, especially if the housing market went up a lot; like it is now.  In 2012 it would have been better to buy, than rent, even if one's job requires one to move,  due to the deep discount in housing prices.  However, if one has to move every year, then it's better to rent irregardless of the housing market.  Hopefully, one's company pays for one's housing or rent in those situations.

Young people don't know or don't care to save and invest.  The only way that they can build up some net worth is by paying their mortgage and building equity in their home.  So even if they don't plan on having kids, I believe it would still be in their best fiscal interest to buy a home if the housing market falls again like like it did in 2007 to 2009.  Today things are different as home sales are starting to stagnate and prices have gone up too much which could cause home prices could fall again, maybe not as bad as in 2009; but they could fall.

[zulu1128]

On 12/14/2018 at 11:14 AM, ohio said:

Here, this pie chart might give you a hint as to why it's falling on deaf ears.  Plus most people own mutual funds and very few on here trade.

 

 

Another option (and mind you I'm just spitballing here) is that those here who trade probably have someone advising them whom they have a relationship with and trust, and choose to go that route instead of listening to some random self-important goofball on the internet. 

[ohio]

1 hour ago, zulu1128 said:

Another option (and mind you I'm just spitballing here) is that those here who trade probably have someone advising them whom they have a relationship with and trust, and choose to go that route instead of listening to some random self-important goofball on the internet. 

Maybe so.  But DarterBlue is up around 60% on his short positions.   And their advisors are down about 3.4% on the year and could go down more.  So, I plan on listening to DarterBlue.

Always follow the money.

But you are right that they do have advisors and it has helped them over the last 10 years.  But the market is bearish and could take back some of the profits that investors made in the bull run.

The point that I was trying to make is that Millenials don't want to save and invest, and buy homes like their parents and grandparents did.  Even putting extra money in the bank is better than spending all of their money, plus many millenials are deep in credit debt.

Plus buying a home in a down market is a good way to build up net worth.  Renting is just throwing money down the drain.

[HSFBfan]

2 hours ago, ohio said:

Maybe so.  But DarterBlue is up around 60% on his short positions.   And their advisors are down about 3.4% on the year and could go down more.  So, I plan on listening to DarterBlue.

Always follow the money.

But you are right that they do have advisors and it has helped them over the last 10 years.  But the market is bearish and could take back some of the profits that investors made in the bull run.

The point that I was trying to make is that Millenials don't want to save and invest, and buy homes like their parents and grandparents did.  Even putting extra money in the bank is better than spending all of their money, plus many millenials are deep in credit debt.

Plus buying a home in a down market is a good way to build up net worth.  Renting is just throwing money down the drain.

Very true. We have no interest in that at all esp buying a home part.