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Power rating - risk/reward angle hsfb


golfaddict1

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Thoughts?  :)  I like this exercise better.   This focus is on risk/reward...  using only CalPreps and Comp poll entries but can dissect and avg. other algorithm based polls that rate to 350 or above at a later date or end of season tally.   33 schools tallied are either top 25 current CalPreps or current Comp 30 created by dntn31.   

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1oDfAjeKZpHaK2NMytbxBiaZ4BtCFCl5726kHhrex39w/edit?usp=sharing

5 10 25 50 100 250 350 Rating ranges
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 Win
8 7 6 5 4 3 2 Win OT
6 5 4 3 2 1 0.5 Loss OT
4 3 2 1 0.5 0 0 Loss
10 9 8 6 5 4 3 Risk

 

PR School Points Games   PR School Avg. Games
1 Mater Dei 160 3   1 Mater Dei 53 3
2 Miami Central 136 3   2 Miami Central 45 3
3 St John's College 135 3   2 St John's College 45 3
4 DLS 134 4   4 St. Louis 42 3
5 St. Louis 126 3   4 St Joseph Prep 42 2
6 Corona Centennial 124 4   6 Kahuku 35 2
7 Mission Viejo 122 5   7 DLS 34 4
8 Colquitt County 104 4   8 Corona Centennial 31 4
9 JSerra - San Juan C 100 4   8 North Shore 31 2
10 IMG 90 3   10 IMG 30 3
11 St Joseph Prep 84 2   10 University Lab 30 1
12 St. John Bosco 80 3   12 St. John Bosco 27 3
13 Folsom 77 3   13 Colquitt County 26 4
14 Oaks Christian 72 3   13 Folsom 26 3
15 Kahuku 69 2   15 JSerra - San Juan C 25 4
16 North Shore 62 2   15 Carol City 25 2
16 Broken Arrow 62 3   15 Mentor 25 2
18 Bingham 60 3   18 Mission Viejo 24 5
19 Good Counsel 58 3   18 Oaks Christian 24 3
20 Carol City 50 2   18 STA 24 2
20 Mentor 50 2   21 St Peter's Prep 23 2
22 STA 47 2   22 Broken Arrow 21 3
23 St Peter's Prep 46 2   22 Rome 21 2
24 Rome 42 2   24 Bingham 20 3
25 Allen 40 2   24 Allen 20 2
25 Hoban 40 2   24 Hoban 20 2
27 Pickerington Central 32 2   27 Good Counsel 19 3
28 University Lab 30 1   28 Pickerington Central 16 2
29 Lake Travis 12 1   29 Lake Travis 12 1
30 St. Frances Academy 0 0   30 St. Frances Academy 0 0
30 Aledo 0 0   30 Aledo 0 0
30 Warren Central 0 0   30 Warren Central 0 0
30 Dutch Fork 0 0   30 Dutch Fork 0 0

 

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The 101-249 range might be a weak spot, but the #'s looked more in sync imo.   Can adjust/tinker though. 

Also, the three losses that mattered in this exercise (IMG to MD, MC to SJC and STA to MC) were all competitive. Edit: Folsom to DLS added.   

Can't just give points to a 250 rated team who gets blown out by a top 5 squad like Pine Richland vs IMG.  Has to be some form of competitive gauge to get loss points (especially in the top 25 range).   That's another step, but thus far this isn't a factor.  

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21 minutes ago, golfaddict1 said:

Thoughts?  :)  I like this exercise better.   This focus is on risk/reward...  using only CalPreps and Comp poll entries but can dissect and avg. other algorithm based polls that rate to 350 or above at a later date or end of season tally.   33 schools tallied are either top 25 current CalPreps or current Comp 30 created by dntn31.   

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1oDfAjeKZpHaK2NMytbxBiaZ4BtCFCl5726kHhrex39w/edit?usp=sharing

5 10 25 50 100 250 350 Rating ranges
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 Win
8 7 6 5 4 3 2 Win OT
6 5 4 3 2 1 0.5 Loss OT
4 3 2 1 0.5 0 0 Loss
10 9 8 6 5 4 3 Risk

 

PR School Points Games   PR School Avg. Games
1 Mater Dei 160 3   1 Mater Dei 53 3
2 Miami Central 136 3   2 Miami Central 45 3
3 St John's College 135 3   2 St John's College 45 3
4 DLS 134 4   4 St. Louis 42 3
5 St. Louis 126 3   4 St Joseph Prep 42 2
6 Corona Centennial 124 4   6 Kahuku 35 2
7 Mission Viejo 122 5   7 DLS 34 4
8 Colquitt County 104 4   8 Corona Centennial 31 4
9 JSerra - San Juan C 100 4   8 North Shore 31 2
10 IMG 90 3   10 IMG 30 3
11 St Joseph Prep 84 2   10 University Lab 30 1
12 St. John Bosco 80 3   12 St. John Bosco 27 3
13 Folsom 77 3   13 Colquitt County 26 4
14 Oaks Christian 72 3   13 Folsom 26 3
15 Kahuku 69 2   15 JSerra - San Juan C 25 4
16 North Shore 62 2   15 Carol City 25 2
16 Broken Arrow 62 3   15 Mentor 25 2
18 Bingham 60 3   18 Mission Viejo 24 5
19 Good Counsel 58 3   18 Oaks Christian 24 3
20 Carol City 50 2   18 STA 24 2
20 Mentor 50 2   21 St Peter's Prep 23 2
22 STA 47 2   22 Broken Arrow 21 3
23 St Peter's Prep 46 2   22 Rome 21 2
24 Rome 42 2   24 Bingham 20 3
25 Allen 40 2   24 Allen 20 2
25 Hoban 40 2   24 Hoban 20 2
27 Pickerington Central 32 2   27 Good Counsel 19 3
28 University Lab 30 1   28 Pickerington Central 16 2
29 Lake Travis 12 1   29 Lake Travis 12 1
30 St. Frances Academy 0 0   30 St. Frances Academy 0 0
30 Aledo 0 0   30 Aledo 0 0
30 Warren Central 0 0   30 Warren Central 0 0
30 Dutch Fork 0 0   30 Dutch Fork 0 0

 

 

When I saw five of the top NINE being from Cali, I nearly spit up my grey poupon!

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7 minutes ago, ORabidOne said:

 

When I saw five of the top NINE being from Cali, I nearly spit up my grey poupon!

CalPreps had 8 of top 17 this week  from Cali.    Note to self, use more algorithms (but Nebraska might find their way in... ) .  With that said, Georgia had 13 reps in the top 100 from CalPreps, same as Cali.   Texas had 16.  FL 9 excluding IMG, OH 8... 

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