noonereal Posted January 4, 2019 Report Share Posted January 4, 2019 Trump is killing you. All the rules you trade by are being blown up. Just sit out till TRump is gone. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarterBlue Posted January 4, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 4, 2019 24 minutes ago, noonereal said: Trump is killing you. All the rules you trade by are being blown up. Just sit out till TRump is gone. Actually, Trump has been relatively good to me as I made a lot of money in the fourth quarter being short. Based on my rules, I expected us to get, at a minimum a five week bounce. Well we are only a week in after factoring the holidays in and the market is looking wobbly again. So, I may have rushed this trade. The thing is, though, that regardless of whether we have a f*8k up in the White House or not, what I do should work. But as I explained in my post in the other thread, when you trade you will have losers. The trick is to risk manage your bets both in terms of initial size, and in terms of how long you let them run. I am currently willing to give the current market two more days to clarify its direction. If I come to the conclusion that direction is down, I will once again go short or at a minimum retreat to the sidelines at that time. The beauty of being a trader is that you are not wedded to be long all the time. For me I go long when things look bullish and short or to the sidelines when they don't. It is from this flexibility that I expect to outperform the market over the long run. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSFBfan Posted January 4, 2019 Report Share Posted January 4, 2019 Btw how many millionaires has trump made in that the dow hit 26000. But than again arent we not supposed to link the presidency to the stock market lol. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarterBlue Posted January 4, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 4, 2019 2 minutes ago, HSFBfan said: Btw how many millionaires has trump made in that the dow hit 26000. But than again arent we not supposed to link the presidency to the stock market lol. Very few if any. He certainly has benefited many millionaires and billionaires before the market got into trouble. Thing is, for me I care not whether the market goes up or down. As long as there are price swings, I intend to make money. I am neither married to the failure or success of Wall Street, unless, of course, if the whole system collapses, in which case I am f*!ked like everybody else! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSFBfan Posted January 4, 2019 Report Share Posted January 4, 2019 Just now, DarterBlue said: Very few if any. He certainly has benefited many millionaires and billionaires before the market got into trouble. Thing is, for me I care not whether the market goes up or down. As long as there are price swings, I intend to make money. I am neither married to the failure or success of Wall Street, unless, of course, if the whole system collapses, in which case I am f*!ked like everybody else! How would there be very few if any if people had money in the markets riding that wave but its whatever. I really dont care if it goes up or down. It's quite fun to watch people freak out over these things. I pay attention more to the news coming out and give said reaction. If that news drops the market a 1000 points but overall it's great news that's fine. If the market goes up a 1000 points but the news sucks than the news sucks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarterBlue Posted January 4, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 4, 2019 13 minutes ago, HSFBfan said: How would there be very few if any if people had money in the markets riding that wave but its whatever. I really dont care if it goes up or down. It's quite fun to watch people freak out over these things. I pay attention more to the news coming out and give said reaction. If that news drops the market a 1000 points but overall it's great news that's fine. If the market goes up a 1000 points but the news sucks than the news sucks. And all the time you make not a dime. How does that benefit you, pray tell? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSFBfan Posted January 4, 2019 Report Share Posted January 4, 2019 3 minutes ago, DarterBlue said: And all the time you make not a dime. How does that benefit you, pray tell? Money isnt everything my friend......I've learned in life how to get by by not making a lot of money. For happiness is a lot better than slaving away making money for someone else. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarterBlue Posted January 4, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 4, 2019 2 minutes ago, HSFBfan said: Money isnt everything my friend......I've learned in life how to get by by not making a lot of money. For happiness is a lot better than slaving away making money for someone else. But based on your posts over the year and a half I have posted on this board you are not happy. I honestly wish you were, but I am pretty sure you are not as periodically you go into a very scary funk! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSFBfan Posted January 4, 2019 Report Share Posted January 4, 2019 2 minutes ago, DarterBlue said: But based on your posts over the year and a half I have posted on this board you are not happy. I honestly wish you were, but I am pretty sure you are not as periodically you go into a very scary funk! Oh I'm not happy but I know making money for companies will not be the path to happiness. Sorry I dont care enough about your company to make you money. I say it all the time i am not a consumer. I dont watch their stupid ads on tv listen to them on the radio etc. Yes I buy stuff out of necessity not because they are driving me that way. People in this country run out like they are batshit crazy over the latest car, phone etc etc. Its sad and comical at the same time. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarterBlue Posted January 4, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 4, 2019 12 minutes ago, HSFBfan said: Oh I'm not happy but I know making money for companies will not be the path to happiness. Sorry I dont care enough about your company to make you money. I say it all the time i am not a consumer. I dont watch their stupid ads on tv listen to them on the radio etc. Yes I buy stuff out of necessity not because they are driving me that way. People in this country run out like they are batshit crazy over the latest car, phone etc etc. Its sad and comical at the same time. I am glad you see that. And, I honestly wish that you find happiness. We hardly ever agree, but I don't dislike you, let alone hate you. I can't say the same for some of your board friends. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSFBfan Posted January 4, 2019 Report Share Posted January 4, 2019 6 hours ago, DarterBlue said: I am glad you see that. And, I honestly wish that you find happiness. We hardly ever agree, but I don't dislike you, let alone hate you. I can't say the same for some of your board friends. Lmaooooo I have personal friends on here. I've met some great guys from this board. There are plenty of posters who go back and forth with me. I'm pretty sure some guys dont like me. And I dont like them. But like I said there are guys on here who I'm friends with in the real world. Even 66 has no problem saying hello to me if/when he seems me. Idk of anyone on here who hates me.....maybe general dislike and that's fine. But there are several guys on here or used to be on here who I am friends with. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarterBlue Posted January 5, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 5, 2019 One day after a big selloff, stocks finished broadly and decisively higher on the last day of the first week of the New Year. They were so strong that IBD declared a follow through day although it was unclear whether NYSE volume closed higher than the previous day and NASDAQ volume did not. Still, given the underlying strength who could blame them? At the close, the range of gains was from 3.06% on the NYSE to 4.48% on the NASDAQ 100. Every single index except the gold miners was up on the day. On the day, we recouped all of our losses from Thursday’s big selloff to close up $4,632 on the day and $1,798 on the week. Our positions actually under performed on the day as neither Merck or Atlassian gained more than 3.09%. However, we owned MRK options not the stock and they did fine indeed. The market was so strong that breadth (advancing versus declining stocks) was 10-1 positive on the NYSE and about 6-1 positive on the NASDAQ. With a rally this strong, one of two things are probably certain. Either this strength is for real and we continue decisively higher next week even if there is a slight pullback Monday, or the rally has expended itself and we get a big down day on Monday. Anything other than a big down day Monday, is evidence to me that regardless of whether the bear market is over or not, the rally continues for several weeks at a minimum. If I am right, then the two positions I own will make money and I will consider adding at least one or two more to take advantage of the new upside strength. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarterBlue Posted January 7, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 7, 2019 On 1/5/2019 at 1:19 AM, DarterBlue said: The market was so strong that breadth (advancing versus declining stocks) was 10-1 positive on the NYSE and about 6-1 positive on the NASDAQ. With a rally this strong, one of two things are probably certain. Either this strength is for real and we continue decisively higher next week even if there is a slight pullback Monday, or the rally has expended itself and we get a big down day on Monday. Anything other than a big down day Monday, is evidence to me that regardless of whether the bear market is over or not, the rally continues for several weeks at a minimum. If I am right, then the two positions I own will make money and I will consider adding at least one or two more to take advantage of the new upside strength. The market acted almost perfectly today. As such, I bought 413 shares of CRM at 142.10 within the final fifteen minutes of the trading day. I considered adding CROX also. However, this one got away from me. I may still purchase it, but only if it pulls back to $28.50 or slightly below. As I work tomorrow, it won't happen till Wednesday at the earliest. Cost including commissions amounted to $58,717. At the close I was up $19 on a net basis. I probably spent $15,000 more than I had intended to on this position. I will adjust downward on any purchase of CROX to a degree if I make that trade. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarterBlue Posted January 8, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 8, 2019 On 1/7/2019 at 4:59 PM, DarterBlue said: The market acted almost perfectly today. As such, I bought 413 shares of CRM at 142.10 within the final fifteen minutes of the trading day. I considered adding CROX also. However, this one got away from me. I may still purchase it, but only if it pulls back to $28.50 or slightly below. As I work tomorrow, it won't happen till Wednesday at the earliest. Cost including commissions amounted to $58,717. At the close I was up $19 on a net basis. I probably spent $15,000 more than I had intended to on this position. I will adjust downward on any purchase of CROX to a degree if I make that trade. I knew something was wrong when I looked at this. It turns out I bought 104 shares too much in one account. As this creates a weighting issue, both in that account, and in my overall ownership of CRM, tomorrow at the open I will sell 104 shares. So, I will have 309 shares left at a cost of approximately $44,000 which is what I should have done to begin with. I can only imagine what portfolio managers trading billions go through when they make mistakes like this. Anyway, better catch it now than later. Whether lightening up proves beneficial or not is not the point. It is about sticking rigorously to what I do in terms of risk and potential reward. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarterBlue Posted January 12, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 12, 2019 From a bull's perspective the market had a great week. I did just okay as nice gains in TEAM and CRM were offset by losses in the MERCK leap call options. Still, I closed the week up nearly $1,700 and am up over $3,450 year to date. Well, the market now faces what I consider its first real test of this nascent new, up move. For one, it is heavily overbought. In fact the overbought reading on the McClellan Oscillator this week hit levels that exceeded the level of mid-March 2009, the week after the Bush Bear Market ended. Added to the overbought nature of the market is the fact that all the major, broad based stock indices are at or just below their 50 day declining moving averages. So, under normal circumstances, we should see a pullback here, as such averages usually serve as resistance when the averages trade below them. Will we get one? This is not clear to me. On Friday, a week and a day ago, the market recorded a very rare, 10-1 up day (advancing versus declining stocks). As Dan Sullivan publisher of the Chartist Newsletter points out such days usually lead to big gains. In fact, since WW2, when two consecutive days like this are recorded within a couple weeks, the odds are 95% that stocks will be higher a year out. With that said, the next week should be a critical one in determining the durability of the current bull move. Should we get an all clear via another huge up day on blow out breadth, I plan on going all in the the fullest extent of what I am prepared to risk at this juncture in my life. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarterBlue Posted January 15, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 15, 2019 On 1/12/2019 at 2:42 PM, DarterBlue said: Added to the overbought nature of the market is the fact that all the major, broad based stock indices are at or just below their 50 day declining moving averages. So, under normal circumstances, we should see a pullback here, as such averages usually serve as resistance when the averages trade below them. Will we get one? This is not clear to me. On Friday, a week and a day ago, the market recorded a very rare, 10-1 up day (advancing versus declining stocks). As Dan Sullivan publisher of the Chartist Newsletter points out such days usually lead to big gains. In fact, since WW2, when two consecutive days like this are recorded within a couple weeks, the odds are 95% that stocks will be higher a year out. With that said, the next week should be a critical one in determining the durability of the current bull move. Should we get an all clear via another huge up day on blow out breadth, I plan on going all in the the fullest extent of what I am prepared to risk at this juncture in my life. We got a pullback today. But by pullback standards, so far it has been mild. Of some concern is the fact that the market sold off a bit into the close. However, given how overbought it was and the significant resistance it encountered at the fifty day moving averages, there was nothing overly concerning from a big picture standpoint. On the day, I performed worse than the market and at today's close, I am now down $1,200 year to date. Interestingly, however, the futures were up nicely after the close and my three positions were each up over a buck each, so as I type this we may have some sort of rebound tomorrow. Another thing to note is that CROX, my fourth pick actually pulled back to the top of its buy range today. If I can get it for about the price it closed at, I may buy it, as it has been the strongest of the four picks so far. If we have more upside to this rally attempt, and I think we do, I expect it to out leg all the major averages. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSFBfan Posted January 15, 2019 Report Share Posted January 15, 2019 8 hours ago, DarterBlue said: We got a pullback today. But by pullback standards, so far it has been mild. Of some concern is the fact that the market sold off a bit into the close. However, given how overbought it was and the significant resistance it encountered at the fifty day moving averages, there was nothing overly concerning from a big picture standpoint. On the day, I performed worse than the market and at today's close, I am now down $1,200 year to date. Interestingly, however, the futures were up nicely after the close and my three positions were each up over a buck each, so as I type this we may have some sort of rebound tomorrow. Another thing to note is that CROX, my fourth pick actually pulled back to the top of its buy range today. If I can get it for about the price it closed at, I may buy it, as it has been the strongest of the four picks so far. If we have more upside to this rally attempt, and I think we do, I expect it to out leg all the major averages. Did u see the article that compared trump and JFK markets and if the pattern continues 2019 can be bullish Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarterBlue Posted January 15, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 hour ago, HSFBfan said: Did u see the article that compared trump and JFK markets and if the pattern continues 2019 can be bullish I keep telling you I do not and have not in over 20 years read media articles on the market. I take my direction from: 1. The market itself; 2. A few select individuals I respect with regards to their market opinions. As to the JFK market and its pattern, I am not acquainted with it. What I can tell you is that the current rally attempt is solid and as long as it remains that way, I will stay long. IF it blinks, I will stand aside or go the other way. For the record, I just placed a limit order to buy CROX at 29.60. IF I get a fill I will post the information including quantity purchased and price filled at. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarterBlue Posted January 15, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 15, 2019 20 hours ago, DarterBlue said: On the day, I performed worse than the market and at today's close, I am now down $1,200 year to date. Interestingly, however, the futures were up nicely after the close and my three positions were each up over a buck each, so as I type this we may have some sort of rebound tomorrow. Another thing to note is that CROX, my fourth pick actually pulled back to the top of its buy range today. If I can get it for about the price it closed at, I may buy it, as it has been the strongest of the four picks so far. If we have more upside to this rally attempt, and I think we do, I expect it to out leg all the major averages. As I type this, several of the averages or right at or have reclaimed their 50 day moving averages by a little bit. If they hold above this level tomorrow, that would be fantastic for the bulls. The fifty day would also have failed to provide any significant resistance. So far, this recovery is going roses for the bulls. Despite my misgivings and conviction that we will pay the piper for our bad economic (fiscal and monetary policies), I am cognizant of the reality that this may yet be down the road. As such, I am positioned to take advantage of the farce while it lasts. Given the way I trade, when the gig is up, I should be able to stand aside while the majority get destroyed. Can't say I will enjoy seeing it happen, but I cannot do anything to mitigate the stupidity of the heard. 9 hours ago, DarterBlue said: For the record, I just placed a limit order to buy CROX at 29.60. IF I get a fill I will post the information including quantity purchased and price filled at. I purchased 1,406 shares of CROX at $29.60. total cost including commissions was $42,306.54. As I type this, the position is up a small amount. In truth, I could have gotten the stock for at least 30 cents cheaper. However, if I am right about its direction, that's okay. I am glad it afforded me the opportunity to get it on the pullback. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarterBlue Posted January 16, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 With the purchase of CROX, I have one more position to fill if the market continues to act well and particularly if we get another 10-1 up day such as we had the Friday before last. This final position will most likely be an index position. I am trying to decided whether I will buy an Index ETF (SPY, QQQ, IWM, etc.), or whether I will buy LEAP calls on one of the indices. Obviously if I go the Options route I will be putting less money to work as the vehicle will be inherently more volatile. I will post my decision, if and when I decide on the final trade. If I pass on it, I will also post the reasons why and rest assured, this will mean that I have my eye on the exit. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohio Posted January 17, 2019 Report Share Posted January 17, 2019 23 hours ago, DarterBlue said: With the purchase of CROX, I have one more position to fill if the market continues to act well and particularly if we get another 10-1 up day such as we had the Friday before last. This final position will most likely be an index position. I am trying to decided whether I will buy an Index ETF (SPY, QQQ, IWM, etc.), or whether I will buy LEAP calls on one of the indices. Obviously if I go the Options route I will be putting less money to work as the vehicle will be inherently more volatile. I will post my decision, if and when I decide on the final trade. If I pass on it, I will also post the reasons why and rest assured, this will mean that I have my eye on the exit. Long time no see, Sir. Had to go to Croatia with my parents to settle some paperwork regarding property they still have there, plus to renew contract on Grandparents plot. Was a lot of work, but all looks OK. Got to see my uncles, aunts, and cousins. Sorry, I could not post on this site as I forgot to bring my Prepgridiron password and Google Mail address, which are on a different computer. Got your PM. Thanks, and hope you had a great New Year as well. I bought UCO, UGAZ, TQQQ, and TLRY before I left for Europe, and still have all 4 positions. Looks like your 4 positions are doing OK, though MRK could do better. Looks like the earning season is doing OK, except 2 bank stocks so far, so you might be OK to buy the ETFs and calls. If the earnings turn sour, then you may want to think about avoiding the future ETFs or calls. As always, good luck. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSFBfan Posted January 17, 2019 Report Share Posted January 17, 2019 2019 is going to be bullish.....my prediction based off nothing lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohio Posted January 17, 2019 Report Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, HSFBfan said: 2019 is going to be bullish.....my prediction based off nothing lol So, you'll end up outperforming 90% of the fund managers out there. LOL 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSFBfan Posted January 17, 2019 Report Share Posted January 17, 2019 4 minutes ago, ohio said: So, you'll end up outperforming 90% of the fund managers out there. LOL Time to throw all my money into GE now lmaoo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zulu1128 Posted January 17, 2019 Report Share Posted January 17, 2019 I guess I owe my guy some dinner...still up a biscuit under 15% since 1/20/17. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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