60% DISAPPROVAL...

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23 hours ago, HSFBfan said:

Just a question......has any poll called u?? They have never called me. So I'd love to know who these pollsters are really polling

Actually different polls have called me over the years but I don't like to do them and haven't for quite some time.  What turned me off was that one caller was trying to "push poll" me, so I gave up midway and have sworn them off since.  Some supposed pollsters try to sway your view and vote by using loaded questions to try guiding the interviewee to change their mind.  Some supposed pollsters use your answers to analyze your resistance to their candidate or issue. 

The chances of one of the major polls calling you in any given election is pretty remote given that there were 130,000,000+ voters voted in the 2016 Presidential Election.  If a poll chooses 1,000 random voters and does it 25 times during the election year and there are 200 polls, then the odds of randomly pick you is still greater than 25 to 1.  

[HSFBfan]

1 minute ago, stanscript said:

Actually different polls have called me over the years but I don't like to do them and haven't for quite some time.  What turned me off was that one caller was trying to "push poll" me, so I gave up midway and have sworn them off since.  Some supposed pollsters try to sway your view and vote by using loaded questions to try guiding the interviewee to change their mind.  Some supposed pollsters use your answers to analyze your resistance to their candidate or issue. 

The chances of one of the major polls calling you in any given election is pretty remote given that there were 130,000,000+ voters voted in the 2016 Presidential Election.  If a poll chooses 1,000 random voters and does it 25 times during the election year and there are 200 polls, then the odds of randomly pick you is still greater than 25 to 1.  

So as you say that the polls really have no idea what people are doing. They have no idea who is gonna show up on any given election night. They dont even know who will be alive on any election night. To quote these polls is really dumb. Idc if they support or not your candidate. And to watch them everyday is stupid. Take for example rasmussen they do the presidential approval every day. I have literally seen that go from tied to +8 disapproval in a day. I have never been polled but than again we block like every number that comes to the house. 

[stanscript]

7 minutes ago, HSFBfan said:

So as you say that the polls really have no idea what people are doing. They have no idea who is gonna show up on any given election night. They dont even know who will be alive on any election night. To quote these polls is really dumb. Idc if they support or not your candidate. And to watch them everyday is stupid. Take for example rasmussen they do the presidential approval every day. I have literally seen that go from tied to +8 disapproval in a day. I have never been polled but than again we block like every number that comes to the house. 

Don't put words in my mouth.  I never said that polls have no idea what people are doing. But it seems as if you follow Rasmussen pretty regularly to know that the biggest swing in one day was 8 points.  I searched most of the results and found one day when it was a 7 point change.  Of course, nobody knows who will show up on election day.  I'd bet there are a lot of people who don't even know 100% whether they will be voting on the night before.  What a poll does is give an estimation of what would happen if the election were held today. 

The best way to determine what is going to happen is to average several of the best polls (just like we do for the composite football poll) and watch the average change from time to time.  That's what I do.  Admittedly, I like to poke fun at Rasmussen and those that feel it is the Holy Grail of national polls.  It clearly is not.  On 7/01/18, my average of 3 composite polls was -9.3 and has stayed in a small range from -9.3 to -10.5 until 8/30/18.  Less than one week later it is at 12.7% and that's a significant change.  I don't know if it is a break in the dam yet but it is encouraging to think that perhaps the moderates are finally getting off the fences and moving to the opposite side from Sideshow Donnie.

 

[HSFBfan]

12 minutes ago, stanscript said:

Don't put words in my mouth.  I never said that polls have no idea what people are doing. But it seems as if you follow Rasmussen pretty regularly to know that the biggest swing in one day was 8 points.  I searched most of the results and found one day when it was a 7 point change.  Of course, nobody knows who will show up on election day.  I'd bet there are a lot of people who don't even know 100% whether they will be voting on the night before.  What a poll does is give an estimation of what would happen if the election were held today. 

The best way to determine what is going to happen is to average several of the best polls (just like we do for the composite football poll) and watch the average change from time to time.  That's what I do.  Admittedly, I like to poke fun at Rasmussen and those that feel it is the Holy Grail of national polls.  It clearly is not.  On 7/01/18, my average of 3 composite polls was -9.3 and has stayed in a small range from -9.3 to -10.5 until 8/30/18.  Less than one week later it is at 12.7% and that's a significant change.  I don't know if it is a break in the dam yet but it is encouraging to think that perhaps the moderates are finally getting off the fences and moving to the opposite side from Sideshow Donnie.

 

No I dont follow it regularly. One simple look at it showed me what I said. 7 points 8 points whatever. I have no idea what people are doing and like you said neither do you. And I am not putting words in your mouth. I stated these polls dont have a clue. They have no idea. I dont even look at polls for high school football. Another opinionated thing that people think they know. Yeah its fun to discuss games and see what happens but to think that anyone thinks they know what can happen are out of their minds. Right now we have no idea what 2020 will look like or even the midterms in November.