A deeply disturbing and most extraordinary event

[ohio]

On 11/28/2018 at 4:21 PM, DarterBlue said:

The above action may also ensure that we end up with the mother of all stock market and debt bubbles. How we eventually extract ourselves from this when it comes crashing down is beyond my capacity to comprehend. 

I never realized how fragile our institutions were till Trump came along. I shudder to imagine where this will all end. 

You have to remember that most people, especially politicians, are short term thinkers.  Same thing pretty much happened in 1998 (Greenspan refusing to raise rates)and in 2007 ( Republicans ignoring the prime mortgage problem), and it will happen again in the near future.

[ohio]

On 11/28/2018 at 4:38 PM, HSFBfan said:

As baby boomers in this country are hitting retirement and they make up a lot of the stock market I'm sure they are happy that the stock market is doing well. 

Stability has to be able to be achieved better than just raising interest rates every couple of months. Has to be a different way 

It is stability, by deflating the market a little it keeps the market from crashing hard in the future.  As you know, all balloons and bubbles have to burst sometime.  Look at the Japanese market in 1990, when their Government did nothing to slow it down.  Since 1990, their market has never recovered from their highs.  The same could also happen to us if our market gets too high, too fast.

[HSFBfan]

4 minutes ago, ohio said:

It is stability, by deflating the market a little it keeps the market from crashing hard in the future.  As you know, all balloons and bubbles have to burst sometime.  Look at the Japanese market in 1990, when their Government did nothing to slow it down.  Since 1990, their market has never recovered from their highs.  The same could also happen to us if our market gets too high, too fast.

But so far in the name of that trillions of dollars have been taken out of our economy 

[ohio]

Just now, HSFBfan said:

But so far in the name of that trillions of dollars have been taken out of our economy 

Don't know the exact amount to be honest.  But a true market crash could do much more than take money from our economy.  It's good if the market grows steadily, but not if it starts to run away due to artificially low interest rates (by Government interference) instead of true economic growth.  This market is way overbought and many corporation's market caps are insane.  If and when, it crashes it will crash hard, maybe even worse than in 2008.  And the higher it is, the harder it will crash.

[HSFBfan]

5 minutes ago, ohio said:

Don't know the exact amount to be honest.  But a true market crash could do much more than take money from our economy.  It's good if the market grows steadily, but not if it starts to run away due to artificially low interest rates (by Government interference) instead of true economic growth.  This market is way overbought and many corporation's market caps are insane.  If and when, it crashes it will crash hard, maybe even worse than in 2008.  And the higher it is, the harder it will crash.

Its trillions. That's what has been reported. But let's wait until something like that is close to happening. Stop assuming its going to happen. 

[ohio]

On 11/28/2018 at 8:51 PM, noonereal said:

That is how Trump ran his business. Live for today and let them crash and burn while you walk away. Not sure how a country walks away from itself though. 

Trump has pretty much done this same thing on many fronts. 

I said this months ago. He has already done too much damage, we will never be the power were were pre-Trump again. Never. 

Ha ha ha, you know Trump's MO well.  He loves to get others to invest in his business ventures, and if the the business fails; then the investors get screwed while he not only loses nothing but also retains any profits.  There is a reason that he has to borrow from foreign financial institutions.  US banks know him too well to lend to him.

The President should not be trying to set monetary policy just to buoy the markets and his ego.

 

[DarterBlue]

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Posted Thursday at 08:14 AM

  On 11/29/2018 at 4:29 AM, DarterBlue said:

1. I never lose my ability to separate my trades from my emotions.<<Maybe so...but you certainly don't sound like it...certainly hoping you are correct here.. I have no problem taking my losses. That is what keeps me in the game.<<<It's actually just your money that keeps you in the game...losses have a way of interfering with that, eye on the ball please... I do have a problem with our POTUS making interest rate policy.<<<apparently so LOL

2. I lost a lot of money today solely because of POTUS's statement that led to the capitulation of the FED Chair.<<<NO you lost money solely because you were shorting the market and misjudged...talk about excuses LOL... Troll, if since I started trading again in late January, I have posted all my trades in various threads in this forum. If you take the time to read them (I don't expect you to, as that would be unreasonable), you would see that I have never ascribed blame for the losing threads to an external party. It is not my style. This is the first time I have ever done this and it is solely due to the unusual nature of Trump's public comments and the unprecedented response from the Fed Chair. What matters now is how I react to the new reality we are now exposed to:  <<ok the fact Trump now makes interest rate policy!<<<running with that one has not been that good for you now has it??? It has not, indeed. But it will be even worse in the long run for the country. 

3. The essence of financial markets is that they are an arbiter of differences of opinion.<<ok My going short is not betting against the house.<<LOL if you think not.... you are clueless... The other side of options trades are usually, but not always, taken by professional market makers. However, my options trades are always long dated with the exception I may take a position around earnings in individual stocks. Thus, if my trade was taken by a "market maker" the odds are he/she would have neutralized the position long before maturity. It represents an expression of opinion on where we go in the intermediate term. <<maybe if you were a global bank, shorting the market with your so called 'OPINION' (LOLOL) investment (of actual $$) could sway the market, but alas your "opinion's" (LOLOL) expression means little but the cash $ you pumped in... Being a small trader has both its advantages and disadvantages. Yes, I am a price taker and not a price maker. But if you reflect on that for a minute, it is not necessarily a bad place to be in. Also, the market doing well is often separated from the economy doing well (the opposite is also sometimes true). <<<you mean like when the economy and jobs etc suck big time, yet the market rockets with billions of $$$ printed from thin air directly injected into it???  Yeah we know...the Obama era proved that one, did it not??? Two comments on this. First, you have no idea what my opinion on that era was for I did not post here at that time as I had a full time job then that did not allow the luxury of participation. The second, which goes to the heart of your comment, is that those policies were started by Bernanke and Paulson. Obama merely continued them when he took office. For the record, for the most part, that is not the way I would have handled that debacle. But then again, I would never want to be in that position. 

But you miss the essence of my point, probably intentionally.<<<nah I think I got it... I think you did too; hence intentionally My point is that the President, for obvious reasons, should not be making monetary policy.<<<Yup, that's the one....sorry that nothing in the tangent you ranted, even remotely backs up that proposition ... This is not worthy of a response. 

I know for sure you know better for you actually are intelligent and fairly knowledgeable.<<agreed LOLOLOL ...JK You are the only right wing person (more accurately not that far right from center, but yes, many times right leaning) on this message board that actually makes me think through your comments before responding on a regular basis. <<<That's just because my comments often come out cryptic (or require a certain level of understanding)...sorry bout that...It is why I advocated for your return during your absence. <<did not know that (I was not here remember? lolol), but thank you.. 

And just so you know I am not trying to beat you up or 'kick someone when down'' etc., but it's just some of the things you try to tie together when emotional, don't ring true to me...If something does not ring true to you, far be it for me to try and convince you otherwise. That would be an exercise in futility. 

I would be kind of interested in your response or thoughts to my last post...Twist and Quantitative easing.....printed BILLIONS daily from thin air, to artificially pump the market...……...good deal or no???   To me bad deal. But that depends on your objectives. If the objective was to save the existing system, it accomplished it. The problem is how to remove the sugar high markets from the drug they have become accustomed to. Say Trump's administration decided to 'roll with that one' as well (and REALLY press the markets like O admin did)....

I would guess your response to be something like.....OH, it was great, cause we needed it then, but now it would be silly....

am I correct??? Please refer to my comments above. The problem with you is that you have a preconceived notion of who I am and what I think. I guess to a degree we are all guilty of this. 

[DarterBlue]

20 hours ago, ohio said:

You have to remember that most people, especially politicians, are short term thinkers.  Same thing pretty much happened in 1998 (Greenspan refusing to raise rates)and in 2007 ( Republicans ignoring the prime mortgage problem), and it will happen again in the near future.

Exactly. Bad behavior that goes unpunished leads to more bad behavior. 

[DarterBlue]

On 11/29/2018 at 10:10 AM, Troll said:

That's cool, I really got to get off and get some stuff done here too...

you have inspired me...LOL...

will catch up with you later 👍

I responded in green to your comments. 

[ohio]

23 hours ago, HSFBfan said:

Its trillions. That's what has been reported. But let's wait until something like that is close to happening. Stop assuming its going to happen. 

Two things. 

One, waiting until something comes close to happening usually is a bad idea.  For instance, if your house has an old roof and you wait for the dripping to start, you may be taking an unnecessary risk.  Let's say it starts to drip but you lose your job 10 months before that and your unemployment benefits ran out.  Also, you have no money saved up to pay for the costly repair.  So, you wait a few months till you get enought money.   By waiting, you may end up with serious structural roof damage.  But had you taken care of the problem a year earlier, the cost may have been much, much less.

This actually happened to the market in the late  1990s.  The market was climbing like crazy due to the internet bubble, Chairman Greenspan did not raise interest rates for years, but inflation started to surge as well and he was forced to increase rates in 2000.  However, it was too late and the market crashed hard. Many people's retirements were wiped out.  Had he started to raised interest rates slightly in 1998, the market would have had a slight pullback and not crashed.  Chairman Greenspan is still blamed for that crash.

Two, I'm not assuming a market crash will happen because it will happen.  The only uncertainty is when and by how much.  As you know, everything in life has has a beginning, a middle, and an end.  A puppy is born, it becomes middle aged, and dies at old age.  A new car is made, it eventually starts needing repairs, and eventually dies.  A movie is newly released, less people go watch it as the weeks go by, eventually it goes on DVD and out of the theaters. 

Bull markets are the same way.  They start to slowly go up after a crash, they start to build up steam, in the final stages they skyrocket, and eventually crash.  They always crash, the only question is when and by how much?  You can't control the when, but you can control the by how much; which is the FEDs job.

Here is a graph of the DOW since 1946.  As you can see there are crashes.  They are inevitable. Looking at this graph, it looks like we may be due for one in the near future, considering that all things come to an end.

[Gospeeder]

On 11/28/2018 at 1:17 PM, DarterBlue said:

As those of you who read my market posts know, I have been bearish on the financial markets since early October. For the most part, this has been justified in recent market action. Well last evening, in an interview, our President, DJT, stated that he was totally unhappy with the actions of the Fed Chairman, Jerome Powell, and would not have appointed him had he know what he was going to do. 

Well today, in an unprecedented capitulation, Mr. Powell (I am not sure he deserves the title), said in a NYC speech before a gathering of luminaries that the Fed is now of the position that rates need not go much higher from here in order to meet Fed targets. So, the USA, now has a President making Fed policy. SHMDFH!

As far as I am concerned, with this move, we are essentially finished as a great nation. For once the politicians, particularly one as corrupt and economically illiterate as the current occupant of 1600 Pennsylvania makes monetary policy, Zimbabwean style inflation cannot be far off. Yes, we still have great power as most major things are dollar denominated (we are currently the world's reserve currency, courtesy of the Bretton Woods agreement made shortly before the conclusion of WW2). However, if this is not a signal of the end, I don't know what is. 

Needless to say, I lost a lot of money today. While the losses stung, I am far more concerned with the precedent of last night's statement and the subsequent action of the Fed Chairman. This is not normal and is not indicative of how things work in a world power.  

I am somewhat surprised that you would take the position you posted above as most of your posts about the market have been of interest and mostly educational but I am sure you know that the Federal Reserve is one of the entities that have contributed toward the slow degradation of our country over the decades.

They are ( unknown to the majority of our citizens ) a private concern of international private bankers whose only interests is to maximize their profits at our expense. That has been their history and every time a strong political figure has challenged them, they went to great lengths to remove that individual. Trump, despite all of his negatives would like nothing better than to get rid of it. He at least understands that we would be better off without it. They back-doored ( if that is a word ) their way into running this country in the early 20th century which has led to the longest run of corruption the modern world has ever seen.

[DarterBlue]

23 minutes ago, Gospeeder said:

I am somewhat surprised that you would take the position you posted above as most of your posts about the market have been of interest and mostly educational but I am sure you know that the Federal Reserve is one of the entities that have contributed toward the slow degradation of our country over the decades.

They are ( unknown to the majority of our citizens ) a private concern of international private bankers whose only interests is to maximize their profits at our expense. That has been their history and every time a strong political figure has challenged them, they went to great lengths to remove that individual. Trump, despite all of his negatives would like nothing better than to get rid of it. He at least understands that we would be better off without it. They back-doored ( if that is a word ) their way into running this country in the early 20th century which has led to the longest run of corruption the modern world has ever seen.

From my point of view a Central Bank is not necessarily a bad thing (full disclosure, I worked for the Jamaican Central Bank for two and a half years before migrating to the USA). It depends on its structure, mandate and who controls it. I understand where you are coming from with respect to the USA's Central Bank. It's structure and control are different than in most other countries. However, even worse than its current construct, is the notion that the Executive Branch of our political system should control Fed action. I can't for the life of me think of any other Presidency where POTUS in plain view sought to exercise authority over Central Bank policy. But I can state that in countries where this has been the case, the end results have not been pretty. 

Given my own misgivings toward the current President (I fully admit I am not a fan and probably could never be, and this is a statement regarding his temperament more than anything else), I am even more concerned that this will end up bad very quickly, but I would not approve of any President, even one I thought the wold of, having this kind of power. And the reason is very simple. In his/her quest to keep the electorate happy and thus remain in power, bad monetary policy almost certainly would be implemented. 

[ohio]

44 minutes ago, DarterBlue said:

From my point of view a Central Bank is not necessarily a bad thing (full disclosure, I worked for the Jamaican Central Bank for two and a half years before migrating to the USA). It depends on its structure, mandate and who controls it. I understand where you are coming from with respect to the USA's Central Bank. It's structure and control are different than in most other countries. However, even worse than its current construct, is the notion that the Executive Branch of our political system should control Fed action. I can't for the life of me think of any other Presidency where POTUS in plain view sought to exercise authority over Central Bank policy. But I can state that in countries where this has been the case, the end results have not been pretty. 

Given my own misgivings toward the current President (I fully admit I am not a fan and probably could never be, and this is a statement regarding his temperament more than anything else), I am even more concerned that this will end up bad very quickly, but I would not approve of any President, even one I thought the wold of, having this kind of power. And the reason is very simple. In his/her quest to keep the electorate happy and thus remain in power, bad monetary policy almost certainly would be implemented. 

Dis iz Premeer Tito here.  Da, ay is stil live.

Ay say bulshitski.  Amerishki bulshitski.  I say you statementska is totaly vraang.  The premeer shoot have total kontrol to da Centralska banka, it helped our kommunist partis remane world economik superiority over you kapitalist sistema.  Dont you no how well the Sovietska Junia iz doink finaciali i Jugoslavia iz iven doink even beter. Ay no moneterska polici da best. Da.

😂🤣😆👻

[DarterBlue]

5 hours ago, ohio said:

Dis iz Premeer Tito here.  Da, ay is stil live.

Ay say bulshitski.  Amerishki bulshitski.  I say you statementska is totaly vraang.  The premeer shoot have total kontrol to da Centralska banka, it helped our kommunist partis remane world economik superiority over you kapitalist sistema.  Dont you no how well the Sovietska Junia iz doink finaciali i Jugoslavia iz iven doink even beter. Ay no moneterska polici da best. Da.

😂🤣😆👻

That is just about right. I would have used the smiley face emoji, but consider the matter too serious to do so. Not many Americans have experienced first hand, a totalitarian system. Thus, certain freedoms and conventions are taken for granted even as they are eroded before our eyes.  

[DarterBlue]

After it seemed that he had buckled to POTUS, Jerome Powell came through in fine style today! I owe this man a sincere apology. He did not let DJT intimidate him. He had every reason and excuse to at the very least say he was going to take his foot off the pedal unless future economic date warranted it and he didn't! Good for him!