Bormio Posted October 18, 2019 Report Share Posted October 18, 2019 The House of Commons must vote on the Brexit deal Saturday, and will be close, but Prime Ministers do not usually lose close votes of this importance. He did what everyone said was impossible, by making the EU believe Britain might actually go without a deal. This is a huge win for the US, who should have always sought to keep Britain separate from the EU. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSFBfan Posted October 18, 2019 Report Share Posted October 18, 2019 19 minutes ago, Bormio said: The House of Commons must vote on the Brexit deal Saturday, and will be close, but Prime Ministers do not usually lose close votes of this importance. He did what everyone said was impossible, by making the EU believe Britain might actually go without a deal. This is a huge win for the US, who should have always sought to keep Britain separate from the EU. I keep hearing something about northern Ireland being a factor Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bormio Posted October 18, 2019 Author Report Share Posted October 18, 2019 7 minutes ago, HSFBfan said: I keep hearing something about northern Ireland being a factor The Northern Ireland conservatives are not going to support the deal, but there are probably 305 Tory or ex-Tory votes for the deal. A smattering of independent votes may get him to 310 - needing 320. There are a number of Labour MPs who represent Leave districts - particularly in the North. Remember, close to 1/3 of Labour voters voted Leave. All Boris needs is 10 Labour votes or a few abstentions and he can reach a majority. Opinion polls in Britain are apparently strongly in favor of the deal. Parliament could buck popular opinion if it was real close, but MPs are not committing suicide with an election imminent. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSFBfan Posted October 22, 2019 Report Share Posted October 22, 2019 Looks like he did @Bormio Brexit has passed 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bormio Posted October 22, 2019 Author Report Share Posted October 22, 2019 22 minutes ago, HSFBfan said: Looks like he did @Bormio Brexit has passed Not yet - that was the second reading. Each Bill has 3 readings. The Commons did not approve the 3 day timetable for debate and amendments. So the bill is on hold. However the 2nd reading had a number of Labour MPs support it - so if they get to a 3rd reading (when) chances are looking good. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bormio Posted October 22, 2019 Author Report Share Posted October 22, 2019 The Remainers think the EU will grant a delay. However the French are inclined not to - and they have a veto. People are forgetting if the EU says no, they know for a certainty that the Commons would approve Boris’ deal in a nanosecond to avoid a no deal Brexit. The EU wants this over, and denying an extension beyond 10/31 is the fastest way for this to happen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Troll Posted October 22, 2019 Report Share Posted October 22, 2019 Doesn't a half dozen other EU countries have to vote approval as well??? Where does that stand?... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bormio Posted October 22, 2019 Author Report Share Posted October 22, 2019 33 minutes ago, Troll said: Doesn't a half dozen other EU countries have to vote approval as well??? Where does that stand?... The 26 other EU countries all must agree on a delay. They were ready to approve the deal. The EU will delay if they want Britain to stay, not delay if they want them to go. The French may want them to go. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stanscript Posted October 23, 2019 Report Share Posted October 23, 2019 "This is a huge win for the US, who should have always sought to keep Britain separate from the EU." ???????? Britain is an important ally and Brexit is weakening their economy. The U.S. should not want to see any ally economically weakened. It isn't a zero sum game where if an ally falters two steps that means that the American economy moves forward two steps. It doesn't work that way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bormio Posted October 23, 2019 Author Report Share Posted October 23, 2019 24 minutes ago, stanscript said: "This is a huge win for the US, who should have always sought to keep Britain separate from the EU." ???????? Britain is an important ally and Brexit is weakening their economy. The U.S. should not want to see any ally economically weakened. It isn't a zero sum game where if an ally falters two steps that means that the American economy moves forward two steps. It doesn't work that way. The economic effects of Brexit are overblown and will be transient. Britain is still the strongest military in Europe and the 2nd largest economy. The US wants an ally not bound up in the mess that is the EU, and wants a power center in Western Europe to balance Germany. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSFBfan Posted October 23, 2019 Report Share Posted October 23, 2019 The US has NO true allies. We have to worry about ourselves Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bormio Posted October 23, 2019 Author Report Share Posted October 23, 2019 3 minutes ago, HSFBfan said: The US has NO true allies. We have to worry about ourselves No two countries have identical interests, but the US and Britain have a special relationship 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSFBfan Posted October 23, 2019 Report Share Posted October 23, 2019 11 minutes ago, Bormio said: No two countries have identical interests, but the US and Britain have a special relationship I dont trust people who we had to kick their ass for our interest as a country. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bormio Posted October 23, 2019 Author Report Share Posted October 23, 2019 It’s been 250 years. Hell, every one wants to forgive and forget re: Germany and it hasn’t been 80 years - and their sins were far, far worse. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSFBfan Posted October 23, 2019 Report Share Posted October 23, 2019 Just now, Bormio said: It’s been 250 years. Hell, every one wants to forgive and forget re: Germany and it hasn’t been 80 years - and their sins were far, far worse. I dont trust the germans. I dont trust the Japanese. We kicked all these countries asses just for them to screw us in trade and such. These are not allies. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cat_Scratch Posted October 23, 2019 Report Share Posted October 23, 2019 It is earier to take a country that stands alone than one that has allies. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSFBfan Posted October 23, 2019 Report Share Posted October 23, 2019 2 minutes ago, Cat_Scratch said: It is earier to take a country that stands alone than one that has allies. We've been attacked 2x on this soil and we destroyed both. Is anyone that stupid to attack us again?? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Troll Posted October 23, 2019 Report Share Posted October 23, 2019 1 hour ago, stanscript said: Britain is an important ally and Brexit is weakening their economy. The U.S. should not want to see any ally economically weakened. It isn't a zero sum game where if an ally falters two steps that means that the American economy moves forward two steps. It doesn't work that way. From a non-biased stance "weakening their economy" is all very dependent... you know, like on whether the economy would be better with these business partners or not.... Wouldn't that necessarily all hang on whether the rest pull them up... or pull them down??? Now I'm sure you have some stan stat somewhere, that projects those other economies (several also declining) to do better than the hypothetical England alone....but the bottom line is...when it is all a crap shoot, I thought that the voters had placed their bets ??? maybe not....maybe it doesn't work that way...🤔 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bormio Posted October 24, 2019 Author Report Share Posted October 24, 2019 The French may be considering a veto. Ambassador has been seen going into 10 Downing Street. Would be a stunning development and would get the deal approved by Parliament without delay. The alternative is crashing out next Thursday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSFBfan Posted October 30, 2019 Report Share Posted October 30, 2019 From Nigel Farage At last the deadlock in parliament is broken, Brexit now has a chance to succeed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bormio Posted October 30, 2019 Author Report Share Posted October 30, 2019 14 minutes ago, HSFBfan said: From Nigel Farage At last the deadlock in parliament is broken, Brexit now has a chance to succeed. Boris needs to win a majority - cannot depend on the N. Ireland contingent or have a bunch of Tory Remainers. Will lose some Remain seats to the Lib Dems in London. But can make up for it in the Brexit-supporting Labour seats in the North of England. Will likely lose seats in Scotland as well. It could be very close. Polls favor the Tories - but much can change in 6 weeks. Tory voters fortunately like Boris - they could have cared less for May. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSFBfan Posted October 30, 2019 Report Share Posted October 30, 2019 2 minutes ago, Bormio said: Boris needs to win a majority - cannot depend on the N. Ireland contingent or have a bunch of Tory Remainers. Will lose some Remain seats to the Lib Dems in London. But can make up for it in the Brexit-supporting Labour seats in the North of England. Will likely lose seats in Scotland as well. It could be very close. Polls favor the Tories - but much can change in 6 weeks. Tory voters fortunately like Boris - they could have cared less for May. I just hope hes able to do it. I appreciate you laying it out the way u do. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bormio Posted October 30, 2019 Author Report Share Posted October 30, 2019 Most recent odds on a Tory MAJORITY are listed at 17/20 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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