DownSouth Posted September 4, 2020 Report Share Posted September 4, 2020 I looked over the State Polls from 2016 to see who got closest to the actual result. I only listed polls that got within 1-3 points (general MOE range) of the final result and were taken within the last week of October and into November. I only listed polls that included Johnson and Stein (no 2 or 3 candidate polls). Not all major polling companies surveyed every state, some did most of the swing states, but didn't participate in all. FLORIDA (actual result Trump +1.2%): CBS/YouGov (tie) Bloomberg/Selzer (Trump +2) Trafalgar (Trump +4) Dixie Strategies (Trump +4) New York Times/Siena (Trump +4) NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist (HRC +1) Emerson (HRC +1) Quinnipiac did 2 polls in the final week, both had (Hillary +1) CNN (Hillary +2) PENNSYLVANIA (actual result Trump +0.6%) Trafalgar (Trump +1) Harper (tied) Susquehanna (HRC +2) MICHIGAN (actual result Trump +0.25%) Trafalgar (Trump +2) WISCONSIN (actual result Trump +0.75%) No polls taken were close. The polls were also smaller polling places, no major firms bothered with Wisconsin (much like Hillary...zing) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DownSouth Posted September 4, 2020 Author Report Share Posted September 4, 2020 ARIZONA (actual result Trump +3.5%) Insights West (Trump +2) CBS News/YouGov (Trump +2) Data Orbital (Trump +2) TEXAS (actual result Trump +9%) NBC News/Wall SJ/Marist (Texas +9) COLORADO (actual result HRC +5%) Magellen (HRC +5) Emerson (HRC+3) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DownSouth Posted September 4, 2020 Author Report Share Posted September 4, 2020 GEORGIA (actual result Trump +5%) Trafalgar (Trump +7) MINNESOTA (actual result HRC +1.5%) No major poll takers surveyed here. The polls that were done here were way off (skewed towards support for HRC). NEVADA (actual result HRC +2.5%) Insights West (tie) Gravis (HRC +2) Emerson (HRC+ 1) (Trafalgar was WAY off here, Trump +5) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bormio Posted September 4, 2020 Report Share Posted September 4, 2020 Trafalgar state polls now are very similar to 2016 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DownSouth Posted September 4, 2020 Author Report Share Posted September 4, 2020 NEW HAMPSHIRE (actual result HRC +0.3%) Emerson (HRC +1) Suffolk/Boston Globe (tie) UMASS Lowell/7 News (tie) MassInc/WBUR (Trump +1) NORTH CAROLINA (actual result Trump +3.7%) Trafalgar (Trump +5) OHIO (actual result Trump +8%) Emerson (Trump +7) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSFBfan Posted September 4, 2020 Report Share Posted September 4, 2020 4 minutes ago, Bormio said: Trafalgar state polls now are very similar to 2016 And the predicted downfall of blue wall Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DownSouth Posted September 4, 2020 Author Report Share Posted September 4, 2020 8 minutes ago, Bormio said: Trafalgar state polls now are very similar to 2016 Emerson, CBS News/YouGov, and Trafalgar all seemed to get most of them right - or at least get the result very close to the actual results (Trafalgar did really bad in Nevada for some reason and was close to being outside the MOE on FL, though they did correctly find Trump to be the winner). Quinnipiac looks like they had the percentages best figured out in FL. They picked HRC +1 in 2 polls, which obviously was wrong, but they seem to be VERY close to having the overall numbers correct in FL. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DownSouth Posted September 4, 2020 Author Report Share Posted September 4, 2020 14 minutes ago, Bormio said: Trafalgar state polls now are very similar to 2016 The only thing that would worry me with Trafalgar (if I was a Trump supporter) is that they seem to give Trump somewhere around an extra 2.5% from where he actually ended up in 2016. So if they predicted he'd get 50%, he'd usually always end up with 47.5%. So if Traf. has a tie, very well could be Biden up 1-2%; if it's Biden up 1-2%, could mean it's actually closer to 3.5%. They very well could have corrected themselves from 2016, and again, those were 4 way polls - looks like 2020 will be 2 way polls only as I doubt any other candidates will get more than 1% of the vote (I'd be surprised if that happened). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atticus Finch Posted September 4, 2020 Report Share Posted September 4, 2020 1 minute ago, DownSouth said: Emerson, CBS News/YouGov, and Trafalgar all seemed to get most of them right - or at least get the result very close to the actual results (Trafalgar did really bad in Nevada for some reason and was close to being outside the MOE on FL, though they did correctly find Trump to be the winner). Quinnipiac looks like they had the percentages best figured out in FL. They picked HRC +1 in 2 polls, which obviously was wrong, but they seem to be VERY close to having the overall numbers correct in FL. Trafalgar hasn't polled Pennsylvania since July and had Biden +5. So not "very similar" to what they had in 2016. These goofballs are just grasping for straws. Trafalgar missed Florida by 2.8% and was more inaccurate on the vote than CBS/YouGov yet somehow Trafalgar nailed it. Trafalgar is a C- poll. It's below average on it's vote accuracy. Yet all you need is one time to convince gullible people that a trend exists. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atticus Finch Posted September 4, 2020 Report Share Posted September 4, 2020 3 minutes ago, DownSouth said: So if Traf. has a tie, very well could be Biden up 1-2%; if it's Biden up 1-2%, could mean it's actually closer to 3.5%. Yeah, it's a Republican paid pollster. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DownSouth Posted September 4, 2020 Author Report Share Posted September 4, 2020 17 minutes ago, Atticus Finch said: Trafalgar hasn't polled Pennsylvania since July and had Biden +5. So not "very similar" to what they had in 2016. These goofballs are just grasping for straws. Trafalgar missed Florida by 2.8% and was more inaccurate on the vote than CBS/YouGov yet somehow Trafalgar nailed it. Trafalgar is a C- poll. It's below average on it's vote accuracy. Yet all you need is one time to convince gullible people that a trend exists. They picked the winner correctly on quite a few states, but yes - they weren't as good on the actual numbers as others were. Based only on how close they were to the actual vote, Traf. was outperformed by 6 polls (and narrowly beat 1 other) in Florida. I accidentally did not include a few polls, went back and added a few others to the original post that I originally missed. And Trafalgar barely outperformed the CNN/ORC poll that had HRC +2. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atticus Finch Posted September 4, 2020 Report Share Posted September 4, 2020 5 minutes ago, DownSouth said: They picked the winner correctly on quite a few states, but yes - they weren't as good on the actual numbers as others were. Yes, they did but likely just benefited from large third party and undecided voters. People tend to underrate the total percentage and closeness to 50% in these polls. Hillary wasn't close to 50% and there was a lot of undecideds/third party voters. That's not the case now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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