Bormio Posted October 19, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 3 minutes ago, Atticus Finch said: Of course. But you wouldn't have started this thread if you weren't living on a prayer. I said I did not know if he was right. He was 4 years ago. And he seems to bother the piss out of you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atticus Finch Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 13 minutes ago, Bormio said: I said I did not know if he was right. So transparent in your wishful thinking. Noting all of his "big hits" but none of his bigger misses. 🤡 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atticus Finch Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 14 minutes ago, Bormio said: And he seems to bother the piss out of you. He's a clown pollster who claims to be good. When he's wrong you'll probably just try to claim that you were just trolling. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bormio Posted October 19, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 3 minutes ago, Atticus Finch said: He's a clown pollster who claims to be good. When he's wrong you'll probably just try to claim that you were just trolling. And if he is right, you’ll disappear for 4 months. Which is another side benefit of Trump winning Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atticus Finch Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 18 minutes ago, Bormio said: And if he is right, you’ll disappear for 4 months. Which is another side benefit of Trump winning Again with the wishful thinking. "Don't believe the polls!" "But definitely believe this one poll because he says what we like!" 🤡 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DownSouth Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 3 hours ago, Bormio said: I said I did not know if he was right. He was 4 years ago. And he seems to bother the piss out of you. You're also ignoring the ones they got wrong, and badly. Trafalgar had Trump winning Nevada 50-45 over Hillary. Actual result was HRC +2.5%, Trafalgar was way off, Trump got 45.5% they weighted him too heavily (Hillary got 48% so they were pretty far off here). I've shown you before that while he got the winner correct in FL, statistically there was 5-6 polls that got the margin in FL closer. Trafalgar had Trump at +4% (Trafalgar was off 2.8%). Trump won by 1.2%. (YouGov was closest polling it as a tie; statistically Emerson/Quinnipiac/NBCNews-WSJ were closer polling it HRC +1%, they were only off 2.2%) So in Nevada and Florida, their numbers were either way off or weighted way too much to Trump for no apparent reason (they got the result right in FL, but they were further off from the actual result than at least 4 other polls just 1 week before the election). If you're counting on Trafalgar to make you feel good that's fine, but I'd subtract 2.5% - 7% (call it 4% or so) from Trump to end up at what the margin will likely be. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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