Bormio Posted October 16, 2020 Report Share Posted October 16, 2020 With 276 EV. Trafalgar has Trump winning Mi and Pa in 2016, and DeSantis in 2018 (against the CW). This time wins Michigan and everything he won in 2016 except Pa and Wi. Maybe he is right, maybe he is wrong - but he has had some big hits recently. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bormio Posted October 16, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 16, 2020 Like chum to a shark Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSFBfan Posted October 16, 2020 Report Share Posted October 16, 2020 3 minutes ago, Bormio said: With 276 EV. Trafalgar has Trump winning Mi and Pa in 2016, and DeSantis in 2018 (against the CW). This time wins Michigan and everything he won in 2016 except Pa and Wi. Maybe he is right, maybe he is wrong - but he has had some big hits recently. Been following their polls every day They were right in 2016 state wise when everyone else was dead wrong Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSFBfan Posted October 16, 2020 Report Share Posted October 16, 2020 I believe they trump winning over 300 EC votes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bormio Posted October 16, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, HSFBfan said: I believe they trump winning over 300 EC votes He went on today with Slate and predicted 276. To be fair - he predicted Trump by +1 in Michigan. Not a lot of comfort. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSFBfan Posted October 16, 2020 Report Share Posted October 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, Bormio said: He went today with Slate and predicted 276. To be fair - he predicted Trump by +1 in Michigan. Not a lot of comfort. No but he has trump up 4 in Arizona Has him up 2 in FL Only down 3 in PA Has him up in Ohio Has him up in wisconsin Up by almost 2 in NC Like I said I follow the poll daily Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gospeeder Posted October 16, 2020 Report Share Posted October 16, 2020 At this point, I don't think any of this stuff matters. On one hand, we have a guy that actually has started some elements of things that are actually meaningful ( the crime bill, getting key players in the Middle East to actually talk together, dealing with China etc ) yet is determined to commit political suicide with his lies, behavior, stupid shit he says and his unending ego. ... on the other side; a guy who for decades, has been part of the establishment supporting the very elements that have led to the broken system we have today and up to this point has not shown to have one original idea to help solve 21st century problems. If he just had the balls to pick a running mate who was actually qualified to be POTUS instead of caving to the political BS, he might make a better case for himself. ...Just imagine if Biden gets elected and cannot finish his term... we get a Harris/Pelosi white house and its Welcome to the United States of California! Chew on that one for a while. It bothers me a lot that we allowed our system to get to this point and neither party will put forward a dignified leader who will call things for what they really are and deal with Globalization along with our social problems in a rational way. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bormio Posted October 16, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 16, 2020 10 minutes ago, Gospeeder said: At this point, I don't think any of this stuff matters. On one hand, we have a guy that actually has started some elements of things that are actually meaningful ( the crime bill, getting key players in the Middle East to actually talk together, dealing with China etc ) yet is determined to commit political suicide with his lies, behavior, stupid shit he says and his unending ego. ... on the other side; a guy who for decades, has been part of the establishment supporting the very elements that have led to the broken system we have today and up to this point has not shown to have one original idea to help solve 21st century problems. If he just had the balls to pick a running mate who was actually qualified to be POTUS instead of caving to the political BS, he might make a better case for himself. ...Just imagine if Biden gets elected and cannot finish his term... we get a Harris/Pelosi white house and its Welcome to the United States of California! Chew on that one for a while. It bothers me a lot that we allowed our system to get to this point and neither party will put forward a dignified leader who will call things for what they really are and deal with Globalization along with our social problems in a rational way. Politics often involves a binary choice - unfortunately. There is a lot not to like about our current politics. For me, the overriding fact is one side acted like a 2 year-old when they lost an election, and I don’t think such despicable behavior should be rewarded. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I AM IRONMAN Posted October 16, 2020 Report Share Posted October 16, 2020 3 minutes ago, Bormio said: Politics often involves a binary choice - unfortunately. There is a lot not to like about our current politics. For me, the overriding fact is one side acted like a 2 year-old when they lost an election, and I don’t think such despicable behavior should be rewarded. Similar to the dem posters on here 😭😭😭👶👶👶's 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bormio Posted October 16, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 16, 2020 1 minute ago, I AM IRONMAN said: Similar to the dem posters on here 😭😭😭👶👶👶's I want Trump to win, but what I really want to witness is the absolute psychosis that will ensue when he does. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I AM IRONMAN Posted October 16, 2020 Report Share Posted October 16, 2020 33 minutes ago, Bormio said: I want Trump to win, but what I really want to witness is the absolute psychosis that will ensue when he does. The meltdowns will be epic brother! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atticus Finch Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 Lucky pollster happens to be a clown. Read this puff piece in the National Review. The Pollster Who Thinks Trump Is Ahead “Right now, we’ve got him down in Pennsylvania,” he says, “I think if it were held today, the undecided would break toward Trump and there’d be some hidden vote. He’d probably win Pennsylvania. But I’m going to give a caveat on only Pennsylvania. I believe Pennsylvania to be the No. 1 state that Trump could win and have stolen due to voter fraud.” So too sum it up.... Trump will win the states that he's behind in the polling averages because we have him ahead. And Trump will also win in the states that we have him trailing because the undecideds will break for him and, uh, the hidden vote too. Oh and also I believe Pennsylvania is a state Trump could win and have it stolen by voter fraud. 🤡 You can't make this stuff up. Not a single reasonable person can buy what this guy is saying. It's hocus pocus. He's just making it up. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Troll Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 1 hour ago, Atticus Finch said: Lucky pollster happens to be a clown. Read this puff piece in the National Review. The Pollster Who Thinks Trump Is Ahead “Right now, we’ve got him down in Pennsylvania,” he says, “I think if it were held today, the undecided would break toward Trump and there’d be some hidden vote. He’d probably win Pennsylvania. But I’m going to give a caveat on only Pennsylvania. I believe Pennsylvania to be the No. 1 state that Trump could win and have stolen due to voter fraud.” So too sum it up.... Trump will win the states that he's behind in the polling averages because we have him ahead. And Trump will also win in the states that we have him trailing because the undecideds will break for him and, uh, the hidden vote too. Oh and also I believe Pennsylvania is a state Trump could win and have it stolen by voter fraud. 🤡 You can't make this stuff up. Not a single reasonable person can buy what this guy is saying. It's hocus pocus. He's just making it up. and that's any different from your silly numbers just how exactly ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSFBfan Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 This poll has trump down about 1.6% in wisconsin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSFBfan Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 With him on traflager right now losing Pa and Wisconsin He needs Minnesota Nevada NH AZ NC Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atticus Finch Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 1 hour ago, HSFBfan said: With him on traflager right now losing Pa and Wisconsin He needs Minnesota Nevada NH AZ NC Doesn't matter. The Trafalgar clown said that Trump will win the states that he's winning and losing in his polls. So no worries. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bormio Posted October 19, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 His prediction of 276 was with losing Pa. Trafalgar has him ahead in all the battleground states he is predicted to win. The National Review article was a good explanation of his polling methods. It pointed out people hate surveys with 25-30 questions, like a lot of pollsters use. Only ones that answer those are the diehards. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bormio Posted October 19, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 14 minutes ago, HSFBfan said: With him on traflager right now losing Pa and Wisconsin He needs Minnesota Nevada NH AZ NC He only needs the last 2. If he wins everything he won last time except Pa, Wi and Maine-2, he is re-elected. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSFBfan Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 2 minutes ago, Bormio said: He only needs the last 2. If he wins everything he won last time except Pa, Wi and Maine-2, he is re-elected. Well he's up in AZ and NC so I guess looking good?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atticus Finch Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 48 minutes ago, Bormio said: His prediction of 276 was with losing Pa. “Right now, we’ve got him down in Pennsylvania,” he says, “I think if it were held today, the undecided would break toward Trump and there’d be some hidden vote. He’d probably win Pennsylvania. But I’m going to give a caveat on only Pennsylvania. I believe Pennsylvania to be the No. 1 state that Trump could win and have stolen due to voter fraud.” In other words, Trump will win them all whether his polls say so or not. Sounds like a toady if anything. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bormio Posted October 19, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 Just now, Atticus Finch said: “Right now, we’ve got him down in Pennsylvania,” he says, “I think if it were held today, the undecided would break toward Trump and there’d be some hidden vote. He’d probably win Pennsylvania. But I’m going to give a caveat on only Pennsylvania. I believe Pennsylvania to be the No. 1 state that Trump could win and have stolen due to voter fraud.” In other words, Trump will win them all whether his polls say so or not. Sounds like a toady if anything. No he was saying it was very close and in his opinion the undecided vote would put Trump over the top. Not a hard concept to understand for most of us. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atticus Finch Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 50 minutes ago, Bormio said: The National Review article was a good explanation of his polling methods. It pointed out people hate surveys with 25-30 questions, like a lot of pollsters use. Only ones that answer those are the diehards. The RCP polling averages have been closer to the actual result just as much as Trafalgar has (3 to 3 on quick glance). You're wishful thinking. You want him to have some magic polling method to reinforce your Trump love. But he doesn't. He's clearly just making it up. Go look at how dreadful some of his 2018 polling was. He had Kemp +12 (he won by 1.4) and Cruz +9 (He won by 2.6). He has an average R-biased polling error of about 5.5-6.0. It's not an accurate polling firm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atticus Finch Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 8 minutes ago, Bormio said: No he was saying it was very close and in his opinion the undecided vote would put Trump over the top. Not a hard concept to understand for most of us. He said that Trump would win the states that he was up in his poll and would also win the state that he was down in their poll. He didn't say it was his opinion. He's a pollster who wants to be taken seriously and he just blurted out that the undecideds would break for Trump (with no evidence) and that there would be hidden vote (with no evidence). But I thought his methodology already accounted for the hidden vote? 🤷♂️ It's all opinion. He's making it all up. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bormio Posted October 19, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 We will see, won’t we? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atticus Finch Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 6 minutes ago, Bormio said: We will see, won’t we? Of course. But you wouldn't have started this thread if you weren't living on a prayer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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