Ohio Week 4 Predictions/Discussion

[Coletrain06]

St. Xavier (2-1) vs. Indianapolis Cathedral IN (1-3) - St. X 31 Cathedral 14

St. X smoked Walnut Hills last week 41-7. X QB Hudepohl did not play. X is still very capable without him, but he really gives X an added dimension, especially with WR Kreimer. The X Defense is, IMO, probably their best defense in many years. I am very impressed with LB Kiessling. He's one of the best X LB's I've seen in awhile.

Cathedral comes in with 3 close losses to 3 solid teams in Brownsburg, Elder, and Bishop Chatard... but it's clear that this isn't one of Cathedral's better teams.

X rolls in this one.

Elder (3-0) vs. St. Edward (1-2) - Ed's 28 Elder 21

Elder comes in 3-0 after beating Team Canada 21-13. It was an ugly night of football in Cincinnati last Friday as it was a steady rain all game and at times a very heavy downpour. Needless to say, Elder didn't pass the ball much, which is their strength. Clarkson North CANADA is the best Canadian team and is kinda like the IMG of Canada. They would be a competitive D1 team in OH, and have played some good Ohio teams very tough the last few years. 

St. Edward beat Cathedral Prep PA 35-3, putting a running a clock on them. This was a good win for Ed's Offensively and Defensively. Clearly this isn't the same Cathedral Prep team from last year, but nonetheless Ed's cleaned up play and dominated. 

For the past 5 years or so, the home team has won this game. Most of the games have been relatively close. I think this will probably be another close game, but I look for Ed's to break the streak of the home team, and leave The Pit with a victory.

La Salle (2-1) @ Scott County KY (4-0) - La Salle 17 Scott County 14

La Salle squeaked by Lutheran North MO 13-12. As was said above, It was an ugly night for football last Friday night in Cincinnati because of constant, and at times very heavy rain. This certainly didn't help an already struggling La Salle offense. However, the La Salle Defense played very good as always. Lutheran North's first score came on a very short field after a La Salle turnover inside their own 15. 

Scott County beat Moeller 10-7 last week in the rainy conditions. Moeller's offense is struggling just like La Salle's. Scott County looks to be among the top KY teams this year.

This game is a toss up. It should play out pretty much like the Moeller game. La Salle's Defense is probably better than Moe's but thats just conjecture at this point. La Salle will struggle to score, but their D should keep them in the game. La Salle has already faced a very good running Offense in Colerain, and did a pretty good job containing them. I see a very low scoring game. 

Mentor (3-0) vs. Strongsville (3-0) - Mentor 49 Strongsville 17

Mentor beat Glenville last week 42-18. Mentor is looking very strong at this point.

Strongsville is 3-0.

Mentor should dominate Strongsville this week. 

Others:

Colerain dominated Princeton last week. The Colerain offense did well without their best OLineman against a good Princeton D front 7. Also Colerain RB JJ Davis still visibly hurt, and getting very few touches.....The Colerain Defense played great again and forced 2 more turnovers, bringing the total to 9 turnovers through 3 games. 

Hoban and Wayne played a very close game til half, and after half Hoban just took over completely......Hoban rolls this week..........Wayne plays a tough Miamisburg team this week. Wayne should win, but it is a tough game that Miamisburg could definitely win if Wayne doesn't come out strong.

Pick Central beat Trotwood-Madison 42-19, but the game was close until the 4th. Pick Central took a 2 score lead in the 3rd after an 82 yd Kickoff Return TD, and then an 85 yd Pick 6. T-M answered, but then Pick Central took over in the 4th. The Pick Central offense seems very good, but their Defense definitely has some holes. 

Iggy bounced back with a nice 21-6 win vs. a good Euclid team. 

Massillon looking very strong so far this year. I read that they returned 21 players from last years team. They play Montclair NJ this week. I assume they should beat them down?....

[prepsbill65]

Things have not changed....excellent work as always.  Was out of country the first two weeks, but still had access to your Colerain- X game.  The cards are loaded; need to stay healthy.  Turnovers killed X, but the 'stupid' penalties were just as costly.  I got to see a tape of the game.  You cannot screw up the snap inside the 10, have a late hit out of bounds when you stop them on 3rd down, and of course, the 12 men on the field (coming out of a Time out) giving the  Cards' a first down, after they were kicking from deep in their territory???? 

Really think LaSalle will get beat by Scott Co (playing at home).  Scott Co has a good Offense, and certainly can outscore LaSalle offensively.  LaSalle D really needs to be focused...or they will lose.

Believe it will be Colerain, StX (1,2) all season in Cincinnati.  They will again meet in playoffs.

 

[zulu1128]

I like SC over LS as well. Sounds like they’re legit this year. 

I’m actually kind of rooting for SC, just so we can see how long it takes for Chipmunk to start a thread about it if they beat LS. 

[Coletrain06]

Yea I'm really struggling with the La Salle/Scott County game. 

I want to pick Scott County, but I keep thinking their Wing T just plays right into the strength of La Salle's D...........I don't see La Salle scoring more than 21 though, so the La Salle D will probably have to play near perfect.

[93CardinalsFan]

Great write-ups Coletrain06, as always.

I don' t know about you, but I found myself lamenting a lot of things about the Cards play over the first three weeks of the year.  Getting shut out the second half of the LaSalle game and then the first half of the St. Xavier game really had me concerned.  Losing Rusty Feth for ostensibly the entire season, JJ and Syncere not really being a part of the offense yet, and DSM needing to do everything on their own...which he certainly did last week against Princeton.

The good news is after all that consternation, they are 3-0 and through the toughest part of their schedule.  They haven't put their best game together yet, by a long shot, and now they can fine-tune, so to speak, against the likes of Middletown, Sycamore and Hamilton.

What are your thoughts at this point of the season?  You think they got "all they need" to finally get over that state semi-final hurdle?  Hell, what about a re-match against St. Xavier?

-93CardinalsFan

[Coletrain06]

31 minutes ago, 93CardinalsFan said:

Great write-ups Coletrain06, as always.

I don' t know about you, but I found myself lamenting a lot of things about the Cards play over the first three weeks of the year.  Getting shut out the second half of the LaSalle game and then the first half of the St. Xavier game really had me concerned.  Losing Rusty Feth for ostensibly the entire season, JJ and Syncere not really being a part of the offense yet, and DSM needing to do everything on their own...which he certainly did last week against Princeton.

The good news is after all that consternation, they are 3-0 and through the toughest part of their schedule.  They haven't put their best game together yet, by a long shot, and now they can fine-tune, so to speak, against the likes of Middletown, Sycamore and Hamilton.

What are your thoughts at this point of the season?  You think they got "all they need" to finally get over that state semi-final hurdle?  Hell, what about a re-match against St. Xavier?

-93CardinalsFan

I agree with your concerns 100%, and while thinking about it last night, a thought/different perspective came to me........sure the offense has been a little unconventional, and they have come nowhere close to putting it all together...but they now sit 3-0 while playing 3 good to very good teams(X IMO is severely underrated nationally) while not playing particularly well on offense.....and if you look back last year to this point, Colerain had the same struggles offensively yet were 0-2 against equal or lesser La Salle and X teams. This made me realize that they are playing better than they were last year at this point, and the offense will improve greatly as the season progresses, just like every season.

Meanwhile....watch out if they do put it all together, and take care of the ball, I truly don't think there's a team in the state that could beat them. 

Also to add on to that, it seems after the incredible playoff games that Ivan Pace and JJ Davis had last year, teams are betting everything on stopping the FB and trying to take away the pitch, in order to make DSM beat them.....which he's been able to do so far... this is usually cyclical and soon we will see teams trying to take away DSM, and Ivan and JJ will have big games

 

[nptb17]

6 hours ago, Coletrain06 said:

I agree with your concerns 100%, and while thinking about it last night, a thought/different perspective came to me........sure the offense has been a little unconventional, and they have come nowhere close to putting it all together...but they now sit 3-0 while playing 3 good to very good teams(X IMO is severely underrated nationally) while not playing particularly well on offense.....and if you look back last year to this point, Colerain had the same struggles offensively yet were 0-2 against equal or lesser La Salle and X teams. This made me realize that they are playing better than they were last year at this point, and the offense will improve greatly as the season progresses, just like every season.

Meanwhile....watch out if they do put it all together, and take care of the ball, I truly don't think there's a team in the state that could beat them. 

Also to add on to that, it seems after the incredible playoff games that Ivan Pace and JJ Davis had last year, teams are betting everything on stopping the FB and trying to take away the pitch, in order to make DSM beat them.....which he's been able to do so far... this is usually cyclical and soon we will see teams trying to take away DSM, and Ivan and JJ will have big games

 

I was only able to watch a quarter and a half of the Colerain-St. X game, but of what I saw, the St. X qb made everything go for their offense.  Colerain db's were in great position in the portion of the game that I watched but the qb made some great throws and scrambled enough for his receivers to come open.  Turnovers were a big part of the issues for both teams from the little I watched but Colerain and St. X looked equal.

I think Fairfield has something going despite their 1 loss.  I know their qb is hurt right now but they have the pieces and depth on defense to cause problems for everyone.  I'm kind of biased on Fairfield because a friend of mine is one of their new coaches.

[Hardcore Troubador]

@Coletrain06

How does Steubenville look this year?  They’re playing a NJ prep School - Hun.  Hun has some athletes but not sure how much depth to compete with a storied program like Big Red.

Massillon should roll Montclair.  Last year Montclair was a good team (by NJ public standards they were exceptional) but they graduated a lot of that talent.

[nptb17]

27 minutes ago, Hardcore Troubador said:

@Coletrain06

How does Steubenville look this year?  They’re playing a NJ prep School - Hun.  Hun has some athletes but not sure how much depth to compete with a storied program like Big Red.

Massillon should roll Montclair.  Last year Montclair was a good team (by NJ public standards they were exceptional) but they graduated a lot of that talent.

Steubenville isn't quite as good as their past two teams imo.  They are still a good coached squad with some athletes.  

Massillon is pretty stout.  It would be an upset if Montclair knocked them off imo.

[OdbCle]

Here's how I'd rank them going into this week (my top 3 are pretty much interchangeable):

1. Hoban - I think they're the most talented team across the board, and when they are at their best, they dominate.  Unfortunately, they likely won't be tested again until the playoffs, so I may move them out of the one slot as the season progresses. 

2. Colerain - Clearly laid their claim as the top team in SWO with victories over X and LaSalle, coupled with a dominant effort against a talented Princeton team. Defense appears to be top notch again, and their offense usually gets better as the season progresses. 

3. Mentor - Could easily be one or two.  Still have questions about their defensive secondary, but their offense is explosive as usual.  May have the best combination of offensive and defensive lines in D1, a place where they typically lack elite level talent. Kipp will be another record setting QB for the Cardinals and his seamless adjustment to varsity football is why they are 3-0 at this point with wins over Ed's and Iggy.  

4. Pick Central - Crenshaw is a difference maker at QB, and the Tigers appear to have re-loaded at the skilled positions. Not the prettiest 3-0 start despite some of the final scores. They've been slow to start, but turn it on late in games. The interior of their defense, which is headlined by two D1 commits, has been surprisingly susceptible to the run.  If they put it all together, a repeat championship is not out of the question. 

5. St. Xavier - Lone blemish is to Colerain. Their signature 3-3 stack defense looks as good as it's ever been. New signal caller Hudepohl seems like he's ready to carry the torch at QB. 

6. Elder - Offense looks very capable, but questions remain on defense. Do they have the team speed to match-up with the top dogs? We'll find out this weekend. 

7. St. Edward - If the defensive front 7 turns the corner, this could very well be the best team in the state. Breaking in three new LB's this year, with one who is a converted d-lineman.  The mistakes we saw in week one against Mentor are being cleaned up. Talent and speed at the skill positions. Experienced signal caller who can move the chains with his arm and feet. Very good defensive secondary. Big game this weekend down in the Pit that could completely change the trajectory of their season one way or other. Lose, and there may not be enough harbins left on their schedule to qualify. 

8. Pick North - They seemed to be getting some hype this season, especially with the return of QB Mike Lowery who was originally in the Pick North district but transferred to Gahanna Lincoln. However, their results so far have been kind of blah. Not much offense against O-Lib, a close game with a 1-2 Dublin Jerome teams, and then a drubbing of a bad O-Orange squad. Nonetheless, they do have talent and are 3-0.  

9. Massillon Washington - Dominant in all three of the victories, albeit to questionable opponents. Probably the best pair of receivers in the state with Morgan and Ballard. Jamir Thomas can take over on both sides of the ball. This could actually be too low for the Tigers.   

10.  TCC - Continues to be the prime destination for the top talent in the Toledo area. What was thought to be somewhat of a rebuilding year has started out great for the Irish with convincing wins over Bishop Hartley and a perennially strong Detroit Catholic Central team.  The move to D2 this year will be interesting. Seems that a Hoban-TCC semifinal is a foregone conclusion. 

[OdbCle]

LaSalle 37, Scott County 7

Hello LaSalle offense, welcome to the football season.  

[Coletrain06]

St. X loses to Cathedral 20-14 in OT.......

X starts Hudepohl at QB.....X scores and is controlling the game.....X then pulls Hudepohl at QB early in game for some reason (Hudepohl seems fine)....X plays backup QB Kreimer for rest of game, until final series with Cathedral leading 14-6......X puts Hudepohl back in game for last drive of game...X drives for TD and 2pt to tie up game.....goes to OT, X misses FG, Cathedral scores.

Don't know what Hudepohl did or said to get pulled, but by all accounts, X wins easily with Hudepohl at QB for the whole game

[hardhit1]

Ed’s down 28-14 at half to Elder come back and win 36-30 only giving up a safety on a bad snap in the second half

[OdbCle]

15 hours ago, hardhit1 said:

Ed’s down 28-14 at half to Elder come back and win 36-30 only giving up a safety on a bad snap in the second half

Biggest test the secondary faced to date. Ramsey calls a hell of a game offensively. So many different looks and routes being run. After that first half, I was wondering if the Ed's defense was ever going to be able to put together enough stops to even things out and have a chance to take the lead. Elder took whatever they wanted underneath and just kept the chains moving. Reminded me of some of those Mentor teams from years ago when they didn't have much of a run game. 

The second half Ed's seemed content not putting pressure on Bittner (aside from a few timely called blitzes), and instead focused on dropping into their zones to try to take away short and intermediate routes. Not a lot of three and outs, but they ultimately kept them out of the endzone the entire second half. Huge win down in the Pit that may have saved their playoff lives. 

[hardhit1]

6 minutes ago, OdbCle said:

Biggest test the secondary faced to date. Ramsey calls a hell of a game offensively. So many different looks and routes being run. After that first half, I was wondering if the Ed's defense was ever going to be able to put together enough stops to even things out and have a chance to take the lead. Elder took whatever they wanted underneath and just kept the chains moving. Reminded me of some of those Mentor teams from years ago when they didn't have much of a run game. 

The second half Ed's seemed content not putting pressure on Bittner (aside from a few timely called blitzes), and instead focused on dropping into their zones to try to take away short and intermediate routes. Not a lot of three and outs, but they ultimately kept them out of the endzone the entire second half. Huge win down in the Pit that may have saved their playoff lives. 

I was wondering myself at halftime but apparently a great halftime pep talk and adjustments made the difference.

they move into the 7th playoff spot with this victory. I noticed next weeks game against COF has been cancelled. Also reading this is better for their harbin points average. They should beat Buchtel and Canada and will need to win 2-3 against Cathedral, Moeller and Iggy to make the playoffs comfortably.

Still just another step in their season but a big victory at a place they have not had much past success.

[nptb17]

6 minutes ago, hardhit1 said:

I was wondering myself at halftime but apparently a great halftime pep talk and adjustments made the difference.

they move into the 7th playoff spot with this victory. I noticed next weeks game against COF has been cancelled. Also reading this is better for their harbin points average. They should beat Buchtel and Canada and will need to win 2-3 against Cathedral, Moeller and Iggy to make the playoffs comfortably.

Still just another step in their season but a big victory at a place they have not had much past success.

St. Edward needs to jump out on Cathedral.  They have a habit of making games hell games if you don't get out on them early.  The only reason that the Ignatius game should be close is that it's a rivalry game imo.  St. Edward has better football players than Ignatius this year across the board.  

[ohio]

1 hour ago, OdbCle said:

Biggest test the secondary faced to date. Ramsey calls a hell of a game offensively. So many different looks and routes being run. After that first half, I was wondering if the Ed's defense was ever going to be able to put together enough stops to even things out and have a chance to take the lead. Elder took whatever they wanted underneath and just kept the chains moving. Reminded me of some of those Mentor teams from years ago when they didn't have much of a run game. 

The second half Ed's seemed content not putting pressure on Bittner (aside from a few timely called blitzes), and instead focused on dropping into their zones to try to take away short and intermediate routes. Not a lot of three and outs, but they ultimately kept them out of the endzone the entire second half. Huge win down in the Pit that may have saved their playoff lives. 

Totally thought the game was gonna start at 7 pm, so missed it.  Thanks for the info recap  👍

[hardhit1]

6 minutes ago, ohio said:

Totally thought the game was gonna start at 7 pm, so missed it.  Thanks for the info recap  👍

There’s a nice recap at Ed’s web site

Eds was 4-5 on going for it on 4th down including the last one on their 31 with 1:30 left in the game. 4th and one and they made it by a foot. Very Ballsy call IMO

[OdbCle]

25 minutes ago, hardhit1 said:

There’s a nice recap at Ed’s web site

Eds was 4-5 on going for it on 4th down including the last one on their 31 with 1:30 left in the game. 4th and one and they made it by a foot. Very Ballsy call IMO

Not only going for it on 4th down 5 times, but the fake punt as well.  Lombo was treating that like a playoff game (and in may very well be the win that secures their position in the top 8). 

[hardhit1]

18 minutes ago, OdbCle said:

Not only going for it on 4th down 5 times, but the fake punt as well.  Lombo was treating that like a playoff game (and in may very well be the win that secures their position in the top 8). 

Gutsy call but stalled drive.

Going forward I would like to see Ed’s call some quick slants & curl plays. Seems like they don’t have any or don’t call them.

[OdbCle]

20 hours ago, hardhit1 said:

Gutsy call but stalled drive.

Going forward I would like to see Ed’s call some quick slants & curl plays. Seems like they don’t have any or don’t call them.

Yes, it seems they're operating with a pretty limited playbook right now. Just relying on their playmakers to make plays. We've seen that from Lombo over the years, keeping it simple until the other team shows they can stop you. That will work until you face an opponent with athletes that can match up, like Cass Tech for example. With some more variety, that game probably doesn't come down to a hail mary. 

[prepsbill65]

On 9/14/2018 at 11:22 PM, Coletrain06 said:

St. X loses to Cathedral 20-14 in OT.......

X starts Hudepohl at QB.....X scores and is controlling the game.....X then pulls Hudepohl at QB early in game for some reason (Hudepohl seems fine)....X plays backup QB Kreimer for rest of game, until final series with Cathedral leading 14-6......X puts Hudepohl back in game for last drive of game...X drives for TD and 2pt to tie up game.....goes to OT, X misses FG, Cathedral scores.

Don't know what Hudepohl did or said to get pulled, but by all accounts, X wins easily with Hudepohl at QB for the whole game

Coletrain06.... totally confused with the QB situation against Cathedral.  Remember, QB Hudepohl did not play at all the week before against Walnut Hills.  The word was he was being 'rested' (from the Colerain game I presume).  I could see that.

I tried to find out Sunday afternoon with people I know at X.  They said he was not hurt, nor was it a discipline issue.  

Was it Specht's decision?  Who knows.  He needs to be at QB, and Kreimer needs to at WR.  Next 3 weeks decide season for them-Moeller at home, then away at Elder and LaSalle.  Offense needs to contribute.  Cathedral had the ball 20 of the 24 minute in the second half.

Win against Moeller is a MUST this week.