Market Plan for Next Week

[DarterBlue]

With the sale of the S&P Calls on Friday, I now own: GRUB, FND and CRM. The current market value of the three positions is $120,520. All three positions are in the black, with GRUB being the most successful to date with an unrealized profit in excess of 10% as of Friday's close. At the start of the most recent rally back in late April, I decided to deploy no more than approximately $130,000 of original capital into the current bull market due to its age and the fact that I expect it to finally top later this year. However, now, in addition to redeploying the options money freed up by the sale on Friday, I am going to add another 37,000 to a stock position. With that said, assuming market conditions meet my expectations over the next two trading days, by Wednesday, I will add the following:

• Option contracts in either the Russell 2000 Exchange Traded Fund or the NASDAQ 100. The expiration will be the September 28, 2018 contracts. I expect to deploy approximately $12,000 in this position.
• A stock position of approximately $37,000 in one of the following: MA, V, BABA, H or HTL. Two are credit card companies, two are hotel chains and the final one BABA is the Chinese version of Amazon. 

Buying the above will be contingent on what I would describe as: Either a healthy pullback in the averages on Monday or a continuation of Friday's strength with an expansion in volume Monday. Absent that, I will bide my time and maintain the three open positions I currently have. 

[DarterBlue]

On 6/2/2018 at 9:55 PM, DarterBlue said:

Buying the above will be contingent on what I would describe as: Either a healthy pullback in the averages on Monday or a continuation of Friday's strength with an expansion in volume Monday. Absent that, I will bide my time and maintain the three open positions I currently have. 

Market Action: Stocks closed broadly higher today. The Russell closed at an all time high. The NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 came within a hairs breadth of taking out the March 18, intra day highs but on a closing basis recorded all time highs. On the surface this sounds great. But there were a few cracks in the markets action. Although the Russell closed at an all time high, the index spent much of the day in negative territory, as it only rallied in the final 45 minutes. In keeping with its strange action, market breadth was only so so. Finally, volume contracted on the day, marking the third consecutive daily gain accompanied by lower volume. 

What did I do?: After some rigorous analysis of the five stocks I had selected as potential buys in the post above, I decided that BABA was the strongest of the five and most likely to go higher in the near term. So, in keeping with my modus operendi, shortly after 10:00 am, I placed a limit order to buy 188 shares of BABA. The limit was to buy at a price of 206 or less. At the time the stock was trading at about 207.40. Well, the 206 price was never attained. Between 10:20 and 10:40, the stock pulled back to 206.03. However, it never traded at 206. Now I could have bought it at the open, in the 205 and change range. However, I never place new orders during the first half hour of the trading day. This is a rule I rigorously adhere to. I also did not purchase the options (I decided on the NASDAQ 100 options over the Russell 2000 options), due to the fact that though the NASDAQ advanced nicely, Monday's volume contracted and did not expand.

With that said, if tomorrow, the NASDAQ indices take out their old March 18, 2018 highs, I will most likely purchase the options as this would represent the beginning of the next leg up in these indices. I may also purchase them if the the indices pullback in an orderly fashion without drama or fanfare. With respect to BABA, at its current close of 208.95, it has gone a little too far beyond its breakout point of just under 200 for my liking, given the age of this bull market. Thus, I will only purchase it if it pulls back a little tomorrow regardless of whether I buy the NASDAQ 100 Options. If it does not pullback, then I will proceed to either Hyatt (H) or Master Card (MA), as these two are not quite as extended as BABA. I will not purchase Hilton (HLT) or Visa (V), as upon further analysis Sunday, I see too many flaws in their charts to warrant doing so.  

[DarterBlue]

On 6/4/2018 at 5:49 PM, DarterBlue said:

With that said, if tomorrow, the NASDAQ indices take out their old March 18, 2018 highs, I will most likely purchase the options as this would represent the beginning of the next leg up in these indices. I may also purchase them if the the indices pullback in an orderly fashion without drama or fanfare. With respect to BABA, at its current close of 208.95, it has gone a little too far beyond its breakout point of just under 200 for my liking, given the age of this bull market. Thus, I will only purchase it if it pulls back a little tomorrow regardless of whether I buy the NASDAQ 100 Options. If it does not pullback, then I will proceed to either Hyatt (H) or Master Card (MA), as these two are not quite as extended as BABA. I will not purchase Hilton (HLT) or Visa (V), as upon further analysis Sunday, I see too many flaws in their charts to warrant doing so.  

After meandering around most of the day, both NASDAQ indices (the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100) closed decisively in record territory today. In that sense they have joined the Russell 2000 in record high territory. The DOW, S&P 500 and NYSE continue to lag and are still in the trading range that began with the selling experienced at the end of January. However, with the Russell and NASDAQ leading, I expect they will join in the party sometime over the summer if not before.

As such, tomorrow I will purchase call Options on the September 28, 2018 Call Options on the NASDAQ 100 ETF. My strike price will most likely be 169, but that is subject to change depending on pricing. The purchases will be made sometime after 10 am and will be conditional on the NASDAQ being less than a percent up or down from today's close. I will most likely purchase 13 or 14 contracts. 

I again failed to get BABA today coming no nearer than over a buck from my limit order. I may try to get this stock one more time tomorrow, again using limits. If I do and fail to get a fill, that will be it; I will move on to the "next stock up" which will likely be Hyatt (H) at this stage. Another stock on my radar which may get consideration is VF Corp (VFC). 

I will post the results of my final decisions no later than after the close tomorrow. 

[DarterBlue]

17 hours ago, DarterBlue said:

As such, tomorrow I will purchase call Options on the September 28, 2018 Call Options on the NASDAQ 100 ETF. My strike price will most likely be 169, but that is subject to change depending on pricing. The purchases will be made sometime after 10 am and will be conditional on the NASDAQ being less than a percent up or down from today's close. I will most likely purchase 13 or 14 contracts. 

I purchased 14 contracts of the September 28, 2018 QQQ Trust, Calls, strike price 271. Price paid was $8.60 (860 per contract) which amounts to approximately $12,080 with the commissions cost factored in. 

For the record, I am once again trying to buy BABA but am reluctant to pay more than $206.50 per share which is the upper end of its buy zone. I am not comfortable paying more than that. We will see if I get filled or not. 

[DarterBlue]

3 hours ago, GardenStateBaller said:

Nice!!! 

 

I don't want to rain on your parade as I, myself, am long. But today's action is actually very troubling. It is not what I expected nor what I would like to see so soon into another up leg. 

[DarterBlue]

10 minutes ago, GardenStateBaller said:

I'm always a glass half full guy. Don't worry, be happy! 

Then you are best off putting your money in mutual funds, paying no mind to daily action, and hoping and praying that when your time comes to retire we are not on the cusp of a bad, secular bear market. When you actively participate in the market as I do, you have to keep tabs on what is happening and react/respond to changes as they occur. 

With that said, I am still optimistic that we go on to new highs in all the averages from here. However, a couple more days like today, with its multiple divergences, and I shall have to reassess my current optimism.

It is necessary that one does so in the battle for investment survival!

[DarterBlue]

13 minutes ago, GardenStateBaller said:

The majority of my investments are already in MFs. My fun money is in stocks. All good. 

We play a different game. While a good mutual fund greatly reduces individual stock risk via diversification, by default, a broadly diversified fund actually heightens market risk. I guess because I have always viewed capitalism as inherently unstable, I have never been comfortable continuously exposing myself to market risk.

Hence, I trade the markets in the expectation that when the next bad, bear market occurs, at a minimum, I will avoid most of the damage, and if I am nimble enough, I should also be able to profit from being short. 

[DarterBlue]

25 minutes ago, GardenStateBaller said:

You have a stronger stomach than I. 

Or, perhaps, a greater fascination, love if you will, for the nature of markets. Thus,  I have spent a lot more time studying how it seems to work in real time, rather than what the academic literature says or the chattering of the talking heads on CNBC or Fox Business. 

What is profoundly ironic about our differing perspectives, is that you are a "true believer" in unfettered capitalism as best as I can tell, while I am a skeptic, yet it is I that have a greater fascination with one of the key underpinnings of a contemporary capitalist system. 

[DarterBlue]

On 6/6/2018 at 2:21 PM, DarterBlue said:

For the record, I am once again trying to buy BABA but am reluctant to pay more than $206.50 per share which is the upper end of its buy zone. I am not comfortable paying more than that. We will see if I get filled or not. 

Stock Purchase: Due to a horrible error on my part, I purchased 188 shares of BABA today shortly after the open. What was the error? Normally when I purchase securities I use limit orders. A limit order is a specification to purchase a given security but only at a given price or less. Limit orders may be placed good for the day, meaning that at the close, if not filled the order is cancelled. Or limit orders can be Good Till Cancelled (GTC), which means with most brokers, that unless cancelled by the customer they remain open for 60 to 90 days. Well, I had been using good for the day limits as I always do (I only use GTC orders when I am placing stop losses on my open positions). However, yesterday, in error I placed the order GTC and did not realize this morning when I was filled for the 188 shares at $206.50. It could have been a lot worse of course, for at least I did not chase the position. But I could have gotten a much better price due to the weakness in the NASDAQ today. 

With the purchase of BABA I am now as invested as I intend to be for this leg of the market. Needless to say,   I took it on the chin today. Such is life in the game I play. 

Market Action: Beginning yesterday, the lagging indices: NYSE, DOW and S&P started showing strength relative to the leading indices: NASDAQ indices, Russell 2000 and S&P Mid Cap. Yesterday's action was fine, though, as the lagging ones had to do some catching up if the current up leg was to continue. Today, on the other hand, was a different kettle of fish as the lagging indices gained ground while the leading indices lost ground. In particular, the NASDAQ indices were hit quite hard, though they recouped about a third of their losses by the close. Volume expanded which was not good sign for the bulls.

Now one suspect day does not mean that the new uptrend is about to be derailed. However, it does reinforce the idea that one needs to be vigilant. The fact that a good bottom was put in place on May 3, and that the market leading indices, NASDAQ and Russell have made new highs does not mean that this rally will automatically be sustained. The next two to three trading days should give us more clarity as to what will unfold for the summer months. In any case, I am now as invested as I intend to be for this leg, so I will sit back and watch what unfolds. If we go up, I should do fine. If the rally falters and fails, I will go back to cash. 

[DarterBlue]

The stock market closed the week out in quiet fashion after opening lower on the day. My week was a checkered one. On the prior Friday, I covered the S&P 500, 267 strike July calls with a $2,900 profit. The intent was to substitute the NASDAQ 100, September calls. The reasoning was that the NASDAQ indices had been far stronger than the S&P and thus the latter calls probably provided greater profit potential. I did not purchase the NASDAQ calls till Wednesday of this week. 

The decision to close the S&P calls proved to be a mistake, at least in the short run. For had I sold them near the close Friday, I would have realized an additional $5,100 profit on them. They closed Friday at 12 while I covered at about 8.80. Of course, the shift of the strength to the DOW and S&P may not last long. The week could have been aberrant. 

Where I stand: I currently have the following five positions: GRUB, FND, CRM, BABA and NASDAQ 100, September Calls strike 171. FND is up very nicely, with an unrealized profit in the mid teens percentage wise. GRUB is still up nicely despite weakness in the latter part of the week. CRM is also up by a small percent. The QQQ calls are down about 5.5% while BABA is down just under a percent. So on balance I am profitable and more importantly, I feel the trend is still up despite less than stellar market action. So, I believe all of the positions will ultimately provide an opportunity to profit handsomely.  As always, I could be wrong as no person can call the future with precision. However, the technical, action of the market is still positive on balance and I see new highs in all the indices on the horizon before Labor Day. 

[DarterBlue]

Market Action this Week to Date: To my way of thinking the market has acted very well this week. To some this may be surprising as Monday saw mixed action and today, the market sold off into the close after digesting the fact that we will probably have two more interest rate hikes this year instead of just one. With that said, market leading stocks have had a very good stealth week. And, even though the averages are not up big this week, they have not given much ground when we consider the backdrop: 1. Uncertainty over trade after DJT's unceremonious dis of fellow participants at the Group of 7 meeting in Canada. 2. Further tightening by the Fed continuing into next year, which has actually led to a flattening out of the yield curve. Flat to inverted yield curves often foretell economic weakness on the horizon. 3. The fact that coming into the week, the market was extended and due for a pullback.

That the market has held relatively tough in the face of the above, is confirmation of my view that all the major indices will see new all time highs during the course of the summer months. Currently, the S&P Mid Cap index has joined the two NASDAQ indices and the Russell 2000 in making new all time highs. So for now, I fully intend to ride the positions I currently hold over the next few months. The positions are discussed below.

Current Portfolio: The following are the positions I currently own:

1. Grubhub (GRUB) purchased in late April, this position is up approximately 20% since purchase as of today's close. More importantly from a technical standpoint, the stock is in new high ground and even when the averages sold off late, it did not give ground. I expect GRUB to continue climbing upward.
2. Floor N Decor (FND) purchased in early May, this position is now up just over 17% as of today's close. From a technical standpoint the stock is now extended as it begins to approach its old all time high of $58 and change. I am looking for this stock to consolidate its recent gains at around current levels and then, sometime in mid to late July through early August, make an assault on its all time highs. 
3. Salesforce (CRM) purchased in early May, this position is now up over 5% as of today's close. The stock has been steadily climbing and has been making new all time highs over the past several trading days. I expect CRM to continue on its current path, albeit in a more ordered, measured, manner than GRUB and FND. 
4. Alibaba (BABA) purchased prematurely, due to carelessness on my part (I failed to cancel an open order), this stock is just above the break even point as of today's close. BABA dominates the Chinese market. Its dominance is the equivalent of Amazon in the US market. As long as the current uptrend remains in place, I look for BABA to continue climbing higher. This stock is still in a buy zone. 
5. NASDAQ 100, Exchange Traded Fund, September 28, 2018, Calls, Strike Price 171. This position as of today's close, is up 9.6%. It is currently $5 in the money as of today's close. The option closed at $9.45, meaning it has $4.45 of time value built into its current price. Needless to say, this position will live and die with the movement in the NASDAQ 100, which together with the regular NASDAQ, Russell 2000 and S&P Mid Cap indices, has been making new highs. I continue to believe that based on where we are in the current market cycle, the NASDAQ 100 will continue higher ensuring that profits will continue to be realized in this position.

I close by saying that all the positions I currently hold are trades, not investments. I will continue to hold them as long as the market continues its current up leg, provided they participate in the move as I expect they will. Should the market show signs of topping, I will cover them all and go to cash. 

[DarterBlue]

Friday's Action: Stocks closed the week broadly lower, but well of day lows after opening significantly lower. In fact at the close, underlying breadth was just barely down on the day. From a technical perspective, this is indicative of a market that still wants to go higher. And it is totally consistent with late stage bull market action. On the week, despite a mixed performance from the major indices, NYSE and DOW closed significantly down, while Russell and NASDAQ indices were solidly up, the kind of stocks I like to be long in (growth issues), did very well. Nothing in the week's action changed my view that we are on our way to new highs in all the major indices. Assuming I am right, by the time the DOW and S&P hit new highs, the more speculative indices could easily be up another 10% or more from where we are today. Thus, I go into the new week confident in the positions in which I am currently long.

I do believe, however, that this very old bull market (it is now the oldest in recorded American history) will soon roll over and we could easily be not far away from a bear market every inch as devastating as 2000-2002 and 2007-2009. But we are not there yet. So I will hold my longs for now. When we do finally top out, I will reverse myself and go short. I expect this will be so later this year or certainly by early next year. But I will let overall market action be my guide.  

[DarterBlue]

Tuesday's Action: The market is finally starting to show some signs of cracking. But this is due to news and mostly surrounds the ongoing trade wars between our President and China, as well as our traditional allies. But even with the latest announcement by DJT late last evening and China's retaliatory rhetoric, the damage today was manageable, as stocks closed well off day lows (with the exception of the DOW). My take is that the market still wants to go higher. However, the reality that we may be in a trade war situation on many fronts has finally started to sink in.

Let's be clear here. Regardless of one's take on the President's actions and its longer term implications for the US economy, if we do get into trade wars with multiple countries, in the near to intermediate term, there will be significant economic repercussions, many of which will be negative. The most consequential in the short term will be inflation as the cost of may consumer and producer goods will rise as companies pass on the costs of the tariffs to their customers. This will result in the FED continuing to raise interest rates, and will increase the likelihood of a recession within the next year. 

Despite the above, I still remain optimistic that the market will make new highs this summer as Mr. President may be just posturing. However, I am starting to keep a closer eye on the door, as further weakness may lead me to reassess my current outlook. 

On a personal note, for the first time in several weeks I had a significantly bad day losing over $3,500.  

[HSFBfan]

GE taken off the Dow replaced by Walgreens 

[DarterBlue]

8 minutes ago, HSFBfan said:

GE taken off the Dow replaced by Walgreens 

I saw that. It was for the best. Because the DOW is price weighted (this is a horrible way to construct an index, btw, and violates all tenants of sound statistics), GE was having very little effect on the DOW, especially as it continued to decline the past fifteen months. 

Ironically, if GE survives as a going concern (I have my doubts), it may actually start to go up now it's to be booted from the DOW. 

[DarterBlue]

Current thoughts on the market: A day after the NASDAQ indices and Russell 2000 closed at new all time highs, stocks ran into a roadblock, closing lower across the board on higher volume. What was most troubling about today's action is that unlike recent days when the averages declined, today's weakness did not reflect any new controversial pronouncements on the part of the current occupant of the White House.

It was almost as if, the averages were finally starting to feel the cumulative effects of the abnormal way in which politics has been conducted. At the close, the range was from a loss of .63% on the S&P 500 to 1.06% on the Russell 2000 which finally showed relative weakness. Breadth was very poor with declining issues outnumbering advancing issues by margins of 20-9 and 21-8  on the NYSE and NASDAQ, respectively. On the day, I got beat up pretty badly as all of my positions except CRM fell from just under 2% to about 3%. GRUB and FND got beat up especially badly. My losses amounted to just under $5,000.

With today's losses, the DOW has now lost approximately 900 points in the past 8 trading days. This has taken it to within hailing distance of the 24,000 level which has provided a measure of support on its prior selloffs. For while the lows of this corrective cycle have been in the mid 23,000, those have been reached on singular bad market days, and we have rebounded each time from those levels in short order. The NYSE Composite Index, looks as bad as the DOW and could also be in danger of retesting its lows for the year. On the other hand, the NASDAQ and Russell, and to a lesser extent, the S&P Mid Cap index, are one good day away from making all time highs.

This is the essence of what market divergence looks like. Divergences like this typically resolve themselves violently and decisively either to the upside or downside. They seldom remain in place for protracted periods. Up until today, I was confident they would have been resolved to the upside. Now I am not so confident. In fact, another bad day tomorrow, could mean that we go into a another corrective phase of market action. This market has been a trying one. For trend followers it has been particularly frustrating, as the trends have mostly been of very short duration. 

[BUFORDGAWOLVES]

On 6/19/2018 at 8:36 PM, DarterBlue said:

Tuesday's Action: The market is finally starting to show some signs of cracking. But this is due to news and mostly surrounds the ongoing trade wars between our President and China, as well as our traditional allies. But even with the latest announcement by DJT late last evening and China's retaliatory rhetoric, the damage today was manageable, as stocks closed well off day lows (with the exception of the DOW). My take is that the market still wants to go higher. However, the reality that we may be in a trade war situation on many fronts has finally started to sink in.

Let's be clear here. Regardless of one's take on the President's actions and its longer term implications for the US economy, if we do get into trade wars with multiple countries, in the near to intermediate term, there will be significant economic repercussions, many of which will be negative. The most consequential in the short term will be inflation as the cost of may consumer and producer goods will rise as companies pass on the costs of the tariffs to their customers. This will result in the FED continuing to raise interest rates, and will increase the likelihood of a recession within the next year. 

Despite the above, I still remain optimistic that the market will make new highs this summer as Mr. President may be just posturing. However, I am starting to keep a closer eye on the door, as further weakness may lead me to reassess my current outlook. 

On a personal note, for the first time in several weeks I had a significantly bad day losing over $3,500.  

I promise to not say anything to the wifey.

BGW

[BUFORDGAWOLVES]

Oh Hi, Mrs. Blue...

So sorry to hear about the "losses".

Darter seems so smart and level headed....

Oh my Lord, really?

Okay....

Bye...

😈

[DarterBlue]

14 minutes ago, BUFORDGAWOLVES said:

I promise to not say anything to the wifey.

BGW

Yours or mine?😃

[DarterBlue]

12 minutes ago, BUFORDGAWOLVES said:

Oh Hi, Mrs. Blue...

So sorry to hear about the "losses".

Darter seems so smart and level headed....

Oh my Lord, really?

Okay....

Bye...

😈

LOL. She knows what I do and trusts that our oldest child will pull the plug if the pain gets too much! He serves as my quantitative analyst in this endeavor. 

[BUFORDGAWOLVES]

27 minutes ago, DarterBlue said:

Yours or mine?😃

Hahaha...

Great comeback!

BGW

[BUFORDGAWOLVES]

27 minutes ago, DarterBlue said:

LOL. She knows what I do and trusts that our oldest child will pull the plug if the pain gets too much! He serves as my quantitative analyst in this endeavor. 

😎

[DarterBlue]

On 6/21/2018 at 8:27 PM, DarterBlue said:

With today's losses, the DOW has now lost approximately 900 points in the past 8 trading days. This has taken it to within hailing distance of the 24,000 level which has provided a measure of support on its prior selloffs. For while the lows of this corrective cycle have been in the mid 23,000, those have been reached on singular bad market days, and we have rebounded each time from those levels in short order. The NYSE Composite Index, looks as bad as the DOW and could also be in danger of retesting its lows for the year. On the other hand, the NASDAQ and Russell, and to a lesser extent, the S&P Mid Cap index, are one good day away from making all time highs.

This is the essence of what market divergence looks like. Divergences like this typically resolve themselves violently and decisively either to the upside or downside. They seldom remain in place for protracted periods. Up until today, I was confident they would have been resolved to the upside. Now I am not so confident. In fact, another bad day tomorrow, could mean that we go into a another corrective phase of market action. This market has been a trying one. For trend followers it has been particularly frustrating, as the trends have mostly been of very short duration. 

Market Action and Outlook: After behaving fine through Friday, June 15, 2018, the major indices have taken a bit of a beating the past 10 trading days. Among the indices that are broad based (I include the DOW which has only 30 stocks since an effort is made by the keepers of the index to make it fairly representative of the broad market), they have lost from 2.25% on the S&P 500 to as much as 3.4% on the DOW over this period. The market leading NASDAQ index has lost approximately 3.2% and now sits a little under 4% from its all time high set earlier this month. The DOW Transportation index has been ravaged and is down 7% over this two week period reflecting significant weakness in Fed Ex and United Parcel Service. What looked like a stealth bull market to me on June 15, now looks like a market that may be in the process of retesting its February, April and May lows. If they do so, the NASDAQ and Russell may have another 6 or 7% to fall from here. And, if the lows do not hold then we are in real trouble. 

My Personal Performance and Plan: Over the past two weeks, I have gone from being up approximately $28,000 since January 30, to being up just over $8,600. This is a stunning setback of approximately $19,400 or about 4.3% of my trading portfolio, but 10% of the amount of the trading portfolio I had at risk. These results are not surprising as my positions tend to have much higher betas and alphas than the overall market. Hence, that's why I have not committed all my trading capital in the the current market (if we were at the beginning of a new bull market I would but not in this latter stage of the oldest bull on record). I go on vacation to a border town in Texas next Monday and plan to be out of commission for the next two weeks. As I don't intend to actively follow the markets over this vacation period, I think I will liquidate the bulk of my open positions if not all of them. If the market had held up as I had anticipated, I would have been inclined to let my positions ride till I got back both because I would be more optimistic on the short to intermediate term direction, and I would be essentially playing with house money. Well this is not the case; and I don't intend to let the market spoil a nice vacation with sis.

[DarterBlue]

Market Performance Monday and Tuesday: Going into the July 4th holiday, the market opened lower Monday only to reverse higher and close at day highs. On Tuesday it did the exact opposite, opening higher only to sell off in the final hour of trade and close mostly lower. Monday we had a positive reversal, followed by a negative reversal on Tuesday. Normally, the trading days leading up to the 4th are positive as Americans are usually in a good mood, feeling patriotic and generally optimistic. This time, what he have had is market behavior characterized by uncertainty. After the net of these two moves, the NASDAQ indices sit right at support hovering just around their 50 day moving averages. In contrast, the DOW continues to under perform holding just above the 24,000 level which is close to where we closed out 2017. Thus, more than half the year has gone by with no price progress to show for it.

Personal Performance and Plan: At the conclusion of the two trading days this week, I am net positive $233. Winning on Monday and giving back most of it on Tuesday. On Friday, the Trump Administration announces whether it will go ahead with a significant round of tariffs effective that day. It is not guaranteed it will do so, but given recent pronouncements from Administration spokespersons, it seems at least 50% likely it will. While the market weakness over the past 2.5 weeks no doubt reflects some of the likelihood that the USA will go full steam ahead with its announced tariffs, I don't think its effects are fully incorporated. I think that there are still many skeptics who believe that Trump is bluffing. Thus, if he goes ahead, I believe the market will have a bad Friday which will likely continue next week. On the other hand, if the Administration kicks the can down the road (postpones putting into effect all the tariffs due to go into effect Friday), opting instead for further negotiations, there should be a relief rally lasting at least for a few days. 

How will I handle this? If I were not going on vacation, I would hold the positions at least through early next week. For despite the fact that my portfolio has been beaten up over the past two and a half weeks, none of the positions held have seriously broken down. The weakest of the lot, BABA, which reflects our tensions with China is still comfortably above its long term support. With that said, though, on vacation, I don't pay attention to the market to anywhere the extent I do when I am at home. Why go off to have fun, if you are preoccupied with other stuff? So this complicates my decision.

As I type this, I am leaning toward closing out the NASDAQ 100 Option position and the Alibaba (BABA) position, taking losses on both. I am also leaning toward keeping the CRM, GRUB and FND positions and leaving specific instructions to my son to monitor them, with a view to selling them should all hell break loose. I will make a final decision one way or the other during the course of Thursday's trade, and hold the positions or execute sell transactions accordingly. 

[dan in daytona]

.....and all the while enjoying with family a relaxing hard earned get away. Mr BlueDarter, you are a complicated individual, my friend. I toast you, on this Independence Day with a bottled import (Fuck Trump), and may your ship rise and float all of our boats. Peace