golfaddict1 Posted July 18, 2018 Author Report Share Posted July 18, 2018 I looked through the entire regular season schedule last night via Massey Ratings and listed the games I felt would/could matter towards a rating. I'll get a state list up and show the schools included. I'm sure I missed many and added too many schools (some won't have the sos to make sense to include for lack of movement potential). I'm a power state snob also, so likely there's too many schools from CA, TX, GA, OH and FL and likely some missing from other states. Hard to keep focus looking at game after game and deciding does the opponent have a schedule that can warrant inclusion and often the answer is I have no idea. TX private schools or a lower state class are examples. Next step: Ohio Elder, LaSalle, Moeller, St. X, St. Ed's, Iggy, Colerain and Winton Woods... to Dexter's Lab. Norland, Miami Central, Carol City and MNW completed. No OOS or OOD* games included yet (Except *BTW due to common opponents connect the dots) ------------------------------------------------ If I used 4 year trend 04-07 SJB 1891, MD 1870, MC 1725, Carol City 1595, MNW 1580, BTW 1475, JSerra 1306, Santa Margarita 1287, OLutheran 1236, Norland 1162, Servite 1123 1725 1475 1162 1595 1580 MC BTW Norland CC MNW 1891 1870 1306 1287 1123 1236 SJB MD JSerra SM Servite Lutheran If I used 2017 end of year... one season only 2017 MD 1699, MNW 1606, SJB 1557, Carol City 1547, MC 1501, SM 1498, JSerra 1422, BTW 1419, OLU 1407, Norland 1404, Servite 1376 1557 1699 1422 1498 1376 1407 SJB MD JSerra SM Servite OLU 1501 1419 1404 1547 1606 MC BTW Norland CC MNW 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
golfaddict1 Posted July 20, 2018 Author Report Share Posted July 20, 2018 elo.xlsx 1201 1644 1262 1646 1666 1592 1609 1477 1346 1539 1529 Moeller X Elder Iggy La Salle Ed's Colerain Wayne Mentor PC WW 14-17 2017 only 1337 1594 1441 1532 1501 1517 1537 1500 1492 1540 1545 Moeller X Elder Iggy La Salle Ed's Colerain Wayne Mentor PC WW Wayne had no common opponents to add in 17 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
golfaddict1 Posted August 16, 2018 Author Report Share Posted August 16, 2018 * Could I have some views of schools included currently and input of teams I excluded that should be there plus schools that should be omitted. I used a combo of recent track record plus some 2018 input of research. Keep in mind I omitted some schools who play in lower classes that may not have an opponent on this list or if so maybe one total. I want to include schools that will have at least 3 games of movement and perhaps I have included teams that won't meet this hopeful criteria. I have around 275 schools listed K boost factor will be doubled for games played with teams in a top 100 (end of Sept, we will have CalPreps, Massey and Fisher to use and comp polls can possibly create an extra boost for top end matchups and results. Playoff wins vs teams in this list will also be boosted). Also, if a team on this loses to a team not on this list... well I've got a problem. I was thinking "if" this is really a wtf loss then a flat 100 point deduction takes place (like everything else, can be amended). Perhaps two tiers of WTF loss levels will be needed... really have to see how points look to determine how big a drop it's worth. Sort of if I did this for the FBS schools, I would have to create a deduction for a loss to a FCS school. I'd like to tinker as the season goes on and who knows, maybe this will look like something at year's end or maybe I say F this after week one... but at least I've enjoyed the ride. Current school list: Central AL Clay-Chalk Hew-Truss Hoover McGill-tool Thompson Centennial Chandler Mountain pt Perry Pinnacle Saguaro Bentonv W Bentonville Bryant Fayetteville Greenwood NL Rock AR Pine Bluff Pulaski Ac. Bish. Amat Cajon Calabasas Chaminade Corona Cen DLS Folsom Helix Mater Dei Mission Viejo Narbonne Oaks Christ OLU Pittsburg Rancho Cuc Santa Marg Serra Gard. Serra SJC SJB Upland Cherry Crk Pomona Valor Christ AHP Apopka Armwood Bartram Trail Braden River BTW Card. Gibb Carol City Central FL Cham Madon Cocoa Columbus DFB Dr Phillips Dwyer IMG Immokalee Lakeland Mainland MNW PBC Plant South Dade Southridge STA Trin. Christ Uschool Venice Vero Beach Viera Wekiva Archer Blessed Trin Buford Cedar Grove Colquitt Cty Glynn Acad Grayson Hillgrove Lee Cty Lowndes Marietta Mays McEachern Mill Creek Milton N Gwinnett Norcross Northside Parkview Rome Tift Cty Tucker Valdosta Walton Kahuku Mililani Punahou Saint Louis Glenbard W Linc Way E Loyola Acad Maine South Avon Ben Davis Carmel Center Grove Indy Cathed Warren Cent Male Trinity KY Catholic LA Easton Evangel John Curtis Karr Neville Rummel Ulab W Monroe Zachary DeMatha Gonzaga McDonough Mt St J OLGC SJC Spalding St Frances Wise Cass Tech DLS MI King Muskegon W Bloomfield Clinton Hattiesburg Horn Lake Pearl South Panola Starkville Tupelo Warren C MS West Pt Blue Springs Christ Bros Rockhurst Arbor View Desert Pines Liberty NV Reed The Bishop Bergen Cath DBP DePaul Par Cath Pope John RBC SJR SPP StJoes Hamm Canisius St Anthonys Stepinac Butler Charlott Cath Hough Mallard Crk Wake Forest Central Cath Colerain Elder Hilliard Brad Hoban La Salle Mentor Moeller Northmont Olentangy Lib PC Pick Norith St Ed's St Iggy St. X OH Trotwood Wayne Whitmer Winton Wds Booker T OK Broken Arr Jenks Owasso Union AB Wood C Cath PA Cathedral Pr Coatesville Imhotep Pine Richland SJP Byrnes Dorman Dutch Fork Ft Dorchest Greer Northwestern South Pointe Spartanberg TL Hanna Brentwood Christ Bros Knoxville Cath Maryville Oakland Aledo Allen Argyle Atascocita Bishop Dunne Bishop Lynch Carthage Cedar Hill Cedar Park Cedar Ridge Coppell Cy-Fair Cypress Rch DeSoto Duncanville Euless Trinity Guyer Highland Park Judson Katy Klein Collins Lake Travis Langham Crk Longview Lufkin Mansfield Manvel Marshall Martin Midway North Shore Prestonwood Ridge Pt Rockwall Ryan San Ang Cen SLC Smithson Val St Pius X Steele Temple Westfield TX Westlake Woodlands American Fk Bingham East Herriman Lone Peak Orem Skyridge Timpview Highland sp Oscar Smith Salem VA Westfield Camas E side Cath O'Dea Richland https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1VupAHKYDVy1PuI6D27V6VSvg0tJF2s9q_Z-hCZcUeLg/edit?usp=sharing 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
golfaddict1 Posted August 21, 2018 Author Report Share Posted August 21, 2018 Old formula had a flaw in it, so I amended it but still not to what I desire... any programmers in the house? 34 games added through weekend of August 18-20 (will add and subtract games as teams rise and fall as more is not necessarily better... more games is most important) https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10NnFEfGyyY8hyQfuaJThZLIHcqktSP3jz1Bhs-JEWn4/edit?usp=sharing As all teams begin at 1500, obviously even 3 games in to compare will be scary... but let's see how it goes. 287 schools added so far (some don't belong and likely won't play 3 minimum games with this group of schools, but they are tied to schools to compare to with more games to use... so some states might look more realistic than others with more connecting data). * Pending undetermined adjustment for sos. Also, home field advantage ( My guess around 2.5 to 3 pts ) could be added if someone knows how to do so I'll add the data needed. Thoughts welcome and again, if every school starts at 1500 we need games! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ararar Posted August 21, 2018 Report Share Posted August 21, 2018 Very interesting stuff here .Really want to see what it looks like after 4-5 games Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
954gator Posted August 21, 2018 Report Share Posted August 21, 2018 Is there a way to search for all OOS games for a states teams? Would be cool if Maxpreps made something like that available. Does Calpreps have anything like that? I'd be nice to have all that OOS data easily accesable at least the Maxpreps years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrepGridiron Posted August 21, 2018 Report Share Posted August 21, 2018 22 minutes ago, 954gator said: Is there a way to search for all OOS games for a states teams? Would be cool if Maxpreps made something like that available. Does Calpreps have anything like that? I'd be nice to have all that OOS data easily accesable at least the Maxpreps years. calpreps allows you to do state vs state H2H. The problem is that it is state and year specific, i.e., you can not see how a state has done across a number of years nor can you see how a particular school has done against states or over several years. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
golfaddict1 Posted August 22, 2018 Author Report Share Posted August 22, 2018 I looked at Massey schedule preseason and have a sheet of games targeted to include on my list each week, plus/minus blowouts of borderline games (like Hough, NC smashing HardIng 56-6 that CalPreps had rated highly to start... if Harding earns it they’ll be added... looking for 3 min meaningful games to gauge). For now not adding that game, Hough stays at 1500. CP is better to use w schedules and look of games but I liked using Massey ratings numbers for a change vs CalPreps and that had a factor in adding schools or not. Also the Massey site has a probability % of winning a game with a prediction score and ratings of O and D. Kind of cool stuff to view. From Oct 1 we could have CP vs Massey head to head contest . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
golfaddict1 Posted August 22, 2018 Author Report Share Posted August 22, 2018 Every criteria covered but home field advantage (and I’m cool with that). As I post this I am already considering tinkering with my percentages in the final 3 columns. Winning pct vs compilation 25 should get a boost % as well as a top 50 inclusion also. I’ll likely tinker again but here is my current version. I can also add a differential points ranking and boost that puppy. Note to self, add OT loss category. (5 pts win, 3 pts win OT, 1 pt loss OT) If a game ends a tie 2 pts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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