State of the Stock Market

[DarterBlue]

21 hours ago, ohio said:

Sold PANW premarket at 234.70  Sold QID 37.545  Sold UVXY 9.27.   Can't look at the market anymore today, going to help a friend move.

A friend in need is a friend indeed. And given the volatility in the two short vehicles, you probably did the right thing. Those positions need to be watched very carefully. 

[DarterBlue]

21 hours ago, ohio said:

Sold PANW premarket at 234.70

A nice, quick profit. Good for you!

[THS2011]

1 hour ago, DarterBlue said:

A Canadian fertilizer company recently taken public ... interesting. 

I had it on my watch list since it was 34 a share. Bought in at 54.82. A little upset I didn't get in earlier 

[DarterBlue]

55 minutes ago, THS2011 said:

I had it on my watch list since it was 34 a share. Bought in at 54.82. A little upset I didn't get in earlier 

It's in an uptrend even though it has pulled back. Don't know if you are an investor or trader, but if the latter, it also has a tight exit point if you are wrong at just under 52. . 

[ohio]

9 hours ago, DarterBlue said:

A friend in need is a friend indeed. And given the volatility in the two short vehicles, you probably did the right thing. Those positions need to be watched very carefully. 

Thanks.  BIg Mike and his family have been my good friends since the 90s, plus he helped me move four years ago.  Although, I did realize one thing: I'm not young anymore.  My lower back and shoulders are feeling it.

With the NASDAQ falling over 200 points for the week, I may play them or others like them if the volatility continues.  Other than good quarterly earnings and a small pullback, I don't see much that will make the markets go up much.  Things like overbought markets, tariffs, possible interest hike worries, Government concern with social media companies, and the falling Chinese stock market may prevent the US markets from going up too much for the rest of the year. Could even be more pull back some more.

But I don't have a crystal ball, so who knows what will happen.

[ohio]

9 hours ago, DarterBlue said:

A nice, quick profit. Good for you!

Thanks again.

I know that small, quick trades aren't anything like holding on to a stock for a longer time and getting that 100% return or a ten bagger (Peter Lynch).  But over a course of a year they do add up.

This week I'll be have a chance to look at the market, since I don't have any plans and I work second shift.  Might keep my eye on the pot stocks (if they pullback some), ETF shorts (maybe), and a few companies that are reporting earnings (LMNR, PVTL, OXM, TLRD????, and ADBE).  

Good luck on your positions as well

[DarterBlue]

33 minutes ago, ohio said:

Thanks again.

I know that small, quick trades aren't anything like holding on to a stock for a longer time and getting that 100% return or a ten bagger (Peter Lynch).  But over a course of a year they do add up.

This week I'll be have a chance to look at the market, since I don't have any plans and I work second shift.  Might keep my eye on the pot stocks (if they pullback some), ETF shorts (maybe), and a few companies that are reporting earnings (LMNR, PVTL, OXM, TLRD????, and ADBE).  

Good luck on your positions as well

It's a matter of available time and your own psychology. To swing trade, which probably best describes you, you need to have the time and  method that takes advantage of short term trends. If you lack the time, or are bothered when you leave a fair amount of dollars on the table, it's not for you. On the other hand, you don't get destroyed in bear markets as you are either short or on the sidelines.

Thanks. GRUB and CRM seem fine. As for FND, I really have no excuse to hold it now as it fell through the lower boundary. Whatever I lose on this position from here is solely on me due to indiscipline.  MPX is inching up to my buy stop. If I get it I think it goes higher quickly. However, the thin volume on it means I will probably exit quickly. Getting caught in a downdraft when you are in a think stock is no fun. Alll the bids dry up. You would think you were owning real estate at that time. 

[ohio]

2 minutes ago, DarterBlue said:

It's a matter of available time and your own psychology. To swing trade, which probably best describes you, you need to have the time and  method that takes advantage of short term trends. If you lack the time, or are bothered when you leave a fair amount of dollars on the table, it's not for you. On the other hand, you don't get destroyed in bear markets as you are either short or on the sidelines.

Thanks. GRUB and CRM seem fine. As for FND, I really have no excuse to hold it now as it fell through the lower boundary. Whatever I lose on this position from here is solely on me due to indiscipline.  MPX is inching up to my buy stop. If I get it I think it goes higher quickly. However, the thin volume on it means I will probably exit quickly. Getting caught in a downdraft when you are in a think stock is no fun. Alll the bids dry up. You would think you were owning real estate at that time. 

Sorry to hear about FND. Don't understand why it's falling, considering it had mixed results the last earnings report. Hope it makes at least a little rebound before you chose to sell it. Or better yet, a big rebound😁😁

MPX is inching up higher, but it will need some good news to make it pop.  I'm assuming you went long with the buy stop.  Exiting quickly, might be a good idea since it tends to come down after a quick pop.  Hopefully, the volume increases then and the spreads become smaller.  Good luck.

 

[ohio]

1 hour ago, DarterBlue said:

It's a matter of available time and your own psychology. To swing trade, which probably best describes you, you need to have the time and  method that takes advantage of short term trends. If you lack the time, or are bothered when you leave a fair amount of dollars on the table, it's not for you. On the other hand, you don't get destroyed in bear markets as you are either short or on the sidelines.

I do swing trades mostly during earnings season, I also have held trend trade type stocks like ETSY, and ADSK since March of this year, among others. Have held AAPL for over two years(bought it at 96 something, and will probably continue holding it as long as it is fundamentally strong.  So, I guess when it comes to trading, I'm all over the place.

As far as time goes, I work second shift; so I can look at the markets during the day.  Can't see myself as a day trader though.  It would be too exhausting.  My mind is lucid between 8 AM to about 10:30 to 11:00 AM, and then it turns to mush. So, usually sometime after 10:30 AM I go for a walk, get something to eat, do some garden work, relax, or take care of other business.

If the markets were to crash like in 2000-2001 or 2007-2008 in the near future, then I wouldn't waste my time with swing or trend trading, But would go long with a few solid companies, and ETFs like QQQ, SPY, or QTEC.

[DarterBlue]

4 hours ago, ohio said:

MPX is inching up higher, but it will need some good news to make it pop.  I'm assuming you went long with the buy stop.  Exiting quickly, might be a good idea since it tends to come down after a quick pop.  Hopefully, the volume increases then and the spreads become smaller.  Good luck.

I am not long yet. I will be long if it trades up to 20.52, for then the buy stop becomes a market order to be filled at the best available price. Given its nature, I don't want to touch it unless I see clear evidence that it's heading higher. The 20.52 is based on what it did on its last earnings release in July when it headed higher in a big way only to reverse sharply and close down on the day. If you look at a three or six month chart you will get an idea why I chose that price.

Of course there is the risk that it gaps through the price and I get filled much higher. With thinly traded stocks that could happen. If we get closer to its next earnings release and I am not filled, I will probably take the order off the table to avoid the added risk of a gap through that point.  

[DarterBlue]

3 hours ago, ohio said:

I do swing trades mostly during earnings season, I also have held trend trade type stocks like ETSY, and ADSK since March of this year, among others. Have held AAPL for over two years(bought it at 96 something, and will probably continue holding it as long as it is fundamentally strong.  So, I guess when it comes to trading, I'm all over the place.

As far as time goes, I work second shift; so I can look at the markets during the day.  Can't see myself as a day trader though.  It would be too exhausting.  My mind is lucid between 8 AM to about 10:30 to 11:00 AM, and then it turns to mush. So, usually sometime after 10:30 AM I go for a walk, get something to eat, do some garden work, relax, or take care of other business.

If the markets were to crash like in 2000-2001 or 2007-2008 in the near future, then I wouldn't waste my time with swing or trend trading, But would go long with a few solid companies, and ETFs like QQQ, SPY, or QTEC.

My strategy during bull markets is to find stocks that I think are going to trend up, identify a convenient entry point (a pullback to the 50 day would be one, as well as certain consolidation patterns), buy the stock with a view to getting out quickly if it violates the uptrend, but riding it up if it does not. I will take my profits when: a. The market gets into serious trouble; b. The stock shows clear signs of violating its uptrend; c. If it runs up very quickly, say 40% in a matter of two months or less, especially if the overall market seems suspect. If it behaves well and the market is in good shape I may hold it for as much as a year. This gives you a shot at getting a double or better, particularly if the stock is strong and the market is in good shape.

I have clearly violated some of my cardinal rules with FND. There is no rationalizing it. in fact it may be best if I end up losing big on this one. It would serve as exhibit A regarding the folly of not adhering to my rules at all times. For if it were to rebound getting me out near break even or with a profit, it would send me a very bad message that could cost me more grief later on. 

Overall, I consider day trading, unless you are very good at it, to be a strategy to both stress you out too much and send you to the poorhouse due to transactions costs becoming a much higher hurdle to jump over. 

If we get into a serious bear market (2000-2002, 2007-2009 or 1973-1974), I will probably use a LEAP Put Option strategy, keeping 75% of my resources in cash. With LEAPS (options that have close to two years to expire), you don't lose time value very rapidly during the first year or so of purchase. If you buy them in the money, they trade like a volatile lower priced stock (say 10-15 per share). This allows you to get the options benefit of high volatility, to a degree, while limiting your risk. 

[ohio]

21 hours ago, DarterBlue said:

I am not long yet. I will be long if it trades up to 20.52, for then the buy stop becomes a market order to be filled at the best available price. Given its nature, I don't want to touch it unless I see clear evidence that it's heading higher. The 20.52 is based on what it did on its last earnings release in July when it headed higher in a big way only to reverse sharply and close down on the day. If you look at a three or six month chart you will get an idea why I chose that price.

Of course there is the risk that it gaps through the price and I get filled much higher. With thinly traded stocks that could happen. If we get closer to its next earnings release and I am not filled, I will probably take the order off the table to avoid the added risk of a gap through that point.  

Took another look at its chart, and can see why you chose 20,52. But I have a few questions, since I've never used a buy stop. Lets say you get it at 20.55, does it stay long like as if you normally bought it at that price and you would need to, lets say, set a trailing stop loss?  Can you give me an example of how you would play it once it hits 20.52 or more.  Also, what you would do if it gaps too much, say at 21.00 or even higher on October 24, its earnings date? 

I have one more question for you.  Lets say a stock was at 100 and it is scheduled to report earnings after market close. Is there a way of setting, a limit order to buy it at a higher limit of say 102? The reason I am asking this is if the stock beats earnings, most likely it would pop up to 105 or more, but you would get it at 102.  If it did't make earnings, then the price would drop, and you would not have bought it. If there was a way of doing something like this you could make out like a bandit during earnings season.

[ohio]

22 hours ago, DarterBlue said:

My strategy during bull markets is to find stocks that I think are going to trend up, identify a convenient entry point (a pullback to the 50 day would be one, as well as certain consolidation patterns), nice strategy  buy the stock with a view to getting out quickly if it violates the uptrend, but riding it up if it does not. I will take my profits when: a. The market gets into serious trouble; b. The stock shows clear signs of violating its uptrend; c. If it runs up very quickly, say 40% in a matter of two months or less, especially if the overall market seems suspect. If it behaves well and the market is in good shape I may hold it for as much as a year. This gives you a shot at getting a double or better, particularly if the stock is strong and the market is in good shape. Also a good strategy.

I have clearly violated some of my cardinal rules with FND. There is no rationalizing it. in fact it may be best if I end up losing big on this one. NOOOO!!!!!  Never think like that.  Just remember to lose quickly, because there are thousands of other stocks that you can make money on to cover a loss.  The smaller the loss, the easier it is to cover it.  It would serve as exhibit A regarding the folly of not adhering to my rules at all times. Again, NO.  For if it were to rebound getting me out near break even or with a profit, it would send me a very bad message that could cost me more grief later on. If you do get out with a profit, just consider as being lucky.  But make sure you don't do it again, because you probably won't get lucky a second time. What I did was, put my list of rules on paper, and taped it to my bedroom mirror, and look at when ever I get a chance.  Sounds strange, but It works for me.

Overall, I consider day trading, unless you are very good at it, to be a strategy to both stress you out too much and send you to the poorhouse due to transactions costs becoming a much higher hurdle to jump over. Totally agree. 

If we get into a serious bear market (2000-2002, 2007-2009 or 1973-1974), I will probably use a LEAP Put Option strategy, keeping 75% of my resources in cash. With LEAPS (options that have close to two years to expire), you don't lose time value very rapidly during the first year or so of purchase. If you buy them in the money, they trade like a volatile lower priced stock (say 10-15 per share). This allows you to get the options benefit of high volatility, to a degree, while limiting your risk. Thanks for this info on LEAPS option puts.  Never heard of it before, but I like the long term expiration date that it allows.  It's the quick expiration date that was my biggest reason for not getting into options. I'll try to study up on it, try to practice paper trading it on Ameritrade's Thinkorswim.  And if there is a steep market drop, I just may use a LEAPS put option strategy as well.  Thanks. 

Also, I am figuring, a LEAPS call Option strategy could be used if the market starts tanking like it did in 2000 to 2002.  Though this may be more risky and may have to get out quick, if the market makes a quick rebound.

[DarterBlue]

4 hours ago, ohio said:

Took another look at its chart, and can see why you chose 20,52. But I have a few questions, since I've never used a buy stop. Lets say you get it at 20.55, does it stay long like as if you normally bought it at that price and you would need to, lets say, set a trailing stop loss?  Can you give me an example of how you would play it once it hits 20.52 or more.  Also, what you would do if it gaps too much, say at 21.00 or even higher on October 24, its earnings date? 

I have one more question for you.  Lets say a stock was at 100 and it is scheduled to report earnings after market close. Is there a way of setting, a limit order to buy it at a higher limit of say 102? The reason I am asking this is if the stock beats earnings, most likely it would pop up to 105 or more, but you would get it at 102.  If it did't make earnings, then the price would drop, and you would not have bought it. If there was a way of doing something like this you could make out like a bandit during earnings season.

First underline - yes. 

Second underline - My stop for this stock would be just below $20. It really should not pull back there if the breakout is for real.

Third underline - I would have bought it higher than I want it. I would see how it did during the rest of the trading day. If it held close to or above $21, I would not have an immediate problem with that. 

Fourth underline - Yes, but you may not get filled. If you set a buy limit and it gaps through 102 in your example, you would not get filled unless it pulled back to 102, since your order would never become a market order. So in short order your broker is protected from you "making out like a bandit" at his expense. 

[DarterBlue]

3 hours ago, ohio said:

I have clearly violated some of my cardinal rules with FND. There is no rationalizing it. in fact it may be best if I end up losing big on this one. NOOOO!!!!!  Never think like that.  Just remember to lose quickly, because there are thousands of other stocks that you can make money on to cover a loss.  The smaller the loss, the easier it is to cover it.  It would serve as exhibit A regarding the folly of not adhering to my rules at all times. Again, NO.  For if it were to rebound getting me out near break even or with a profit, it would send me a very bad message that could cost me more grief later on. If you do get out with a profit, just consider as being lucky.  But make sure you don't do it again, because you probably won't get lucky a second time. What I did was, put my list of rules on paper, and taped it to my bedroom mirror, and look at when ever I get a chance.  Sounds strange, but It works for me.

 

3 hours ago, ohio said:

On 9/8/2018 at 11:27 PM, DarterBlue said:

If we get into a serious bear market (2000-2002, 2007-2009 or 1973-1974), I will probably use a LEAP Put Option strategy, keeping 75% of my resources in cash. With LEAPS (options that have close to two years to expire), you don't lose time value very rapidly during the first year or so of purchase. If you buy them in the money, they trade like a volatile lower priced stock (say 10-15 per share). This allows you to get the options benefit of high volatility, to a degree, while limiting your risk. Thanks for this info on LEAPS option puts.  Never heard of it before, but I like the long term expiration date that it allows.  It's the quick expiration date that was my biggest reason for not getting into options. I'll try to study up on it, try to practice paper trading it on Ameritrade's Thinkorswim.  And if there is a steep market drop, I just may use a LEAPS put option strategy as well.  Thanks. 

Also, I am figuring, a LEAPS call Option strategy could be used if the market starts tanking like it did in 2000 to 2002.  Though this may be more risky and may have to get out quick, if the market makes a quick rebound.

First paragraph, we are saying the same thing. I know I am doing wrong with FND. For me it's a classic example of why I often stay away from trading companies that I have had positive customer experiences with. In those situations, it is easy for me to remember that I liked the product or services and that tends to cloud my decisions with respect to the technical aspects of the stocks performance in the market. FND, technically, is behaving very badly notwithstanding the fact it closed higher on Friday.  Changing the subject, my list of rules is taped above my desktop from which I usually monitor the market along with a 90 year chart of the DOW and S&P (in the case of the S&P it's a bit less than 90 years as it has not been around that long). Overlaid on the chart are recessions, expansions, and major world events during that period. The purpose is to give one a degree of perspective so the noise does not overly distract. 

Second paragraph, I have found LEAP Options to be a safer way of playing a long term, deep downtrend. I have used LEAP Puts on the major indices and on individual stocks. When using them on individual stocks, I have used past market leaders that ran into trouble. Two examples from the 2000-2002 bear market would be: CSCO and NT (Nortel Networks) which, BTW, is no longer around. 

Third paragraph, I have also used LEAP calls, but have usually waited till I got a sense that a clear bottom has been put in after a punishing bear market. I made some money on LEAP Calls coming out of the last bad bear market that ended in March 2009. I did not initiate them till May of that year when I was sure we were in a new uptrend. The danger with buying them during the course of the bear market is that you never really know how long it is going to last and how deep the drop is going to be. But I agree with you that if you could put these positions on in the later stages of a bear market and have the conviction to keep them even if the averages declined, say another 10 - 15%, then you could make a killing with such a strategy. The funny think is that LEAPS are not that popular mostly because most options traders (outside of the professionals) are rank gamblers and thus they consider LEAPS to be too "slow" for them. 

[ohio]

15 hours ago, DarterBlue said:

 

First paragraph, we are saying the same thing. I know I am doing wrong with FND. For me it's a classic example of why I often stay away from trading companies that I have had positive customer experiences with. In those situations, it is easy for me to remember that I liked the product or services and that tends to cloud my decisions with respect to the technical aspects of the stocks performance in the market. FND, technically, is behaving very badly notwithstanding the fact it closed higher on Friday.  Changing the subject, my list of rules is taped above my desktop from which I usually monitor the market along with a 90 year chart of the DOW and S&P (in the case of the S&P it's a bit less than 90 years as it has not been around that long). Overlaid on the chart are recessions, expansions, and major world events during that period. The purpose is to give one a degree of perspective so the noise does not overly distract. 

Second paragraph, I have found LEAP Options to be a safer way of playing a long term, deep downtrend. I have used LEAP Puts on the major indices and on individual stocks. When using them on individual stocks, I have used past market leaders that ran into trouble. Two examples from the 2000-2002 bear market would be: CSCO and NT (Nortel Networks) which, BTW, is no longer around. 

Third paragraph, I have also used LEAP calls, but have usually waited till I got a sense that a clear bottom has been put in after a punishing bear market. I made some money on LEAP Calls coming out of the last bad bear market that ended in March 2009. I did not initiate them till May of that year when I was sure we were in a new uptrend. The danger with buying them during the course of the bear market is that you never really know how long it is going to last and how deep the drop is going to be. But I agree with you that if you could put these positions on in the later stages of a bear market and have the conviction to keep them even if the averages declined, say another 10 - 15%, then you could make a killing with such a strategy. The funny think is that LEAPS are not that popular mostly because most options traders (outside of the professionals) are rank gamblers and thus they consider LEAPS to be too "slow" for them. 

There is nothing wrong with liking a companies products or services,, I think that's how Peter Lynch used to select some of this stocks in the Magellan Fund in the 80s.  But you are right, the fundamentals are more important and it's never good to fall in love with a stock. I've been burned in the past by falling in love with stocks, (EBAY this year) so I really didn't learn my lesson yet.

As far as buying stocks when the markets are falling goes, its hard to predict the bottom. Kind of like trying to catch a falling knife. There should be no hurry to go long on stocks or indexes after a 2000 to 2002 type pullback.  For instance, it took NASDAQ only a little over two years to drop from 5000 to 1500. But it took it almost 13 years to get back to 5000, from 2002.

[ohio]

16 hours ago, DarterBlue said:

First underline - yes. 

Second underline - My stop for this stock would be just below $20. It really should not pull back there if the breakout is for real.

Third underline - I would have bought it higher than I want it. I would see how it did during the rest of the trading day. If it held close to or above $21, I would not have an immediate problem with that. 

Fourth underline - Yes, but you may not get filled. If you set a buy limit and it gaps through 102 in your example, you would not get filled unless it pulled back to 102, since your order would never become a market order. So in short order your broker is protected from you "making out like a bandit" at his expense. 

Thanks

Too bad there is no good way to set a stock price and actually get it.  Could be make earnings season a lot less stressful.

[DarterBlue]

30 minutes ago, ohio said:

Thanks

Too bad there is no good way to set a stock price and actually get it.  Could be make earnings season a lot less stressful.

True, that it would.

For the record, I got filled on MPX today at prices ranging from 20.63  to 20.88. Bought 1,820 shares. My exit will be the first time it closes below $20, I will get out at the open the next day. I bought this on the theory that I was buying a breakout. If it's a false breakout, I don't want to be in it, for it trades too thinly for my liking. Though today was a relatively high volume day for this stock as over 60,000 shares traded, I still accounted for approximately 2% of the total volume. 

[ohio]

9 minutes ago, DarterBlue said:

True, that it would.

For the record, I got filled on MPX today at prices ranging from 20.63  to 20.88. Bought 1,820 shares. My exit will be the first time it closes below $20, I will get out at the open the next day. I bought this on the theory that I was buying a breakout. If it's a false breakout, I don't want to be in it, for it trades too thinly for my liking. Though today was a relatively high volume day for this stock as over 60,000 shares traded, I still accounted for approximately 2% of the total volume. 

Even though, MPX volume is still low, a  spike in volume usually represents a bullish sign and a possible breakout.  Good luck  It's smart to have a tight stop loss on it as well, because with low volume it only takes a few trades to bring it right back down.

Oh, by the way.  During earnings season, I sometimes buy a stock a few days before the earnings report, but only if 1) it has beat earnings for at least the last two or three quarters, 2) it is a growth stock like PANW or LULU,  and 3) there is a bull market.  But it is still very risky, because I am still taking an educated guess on an uncertainty.

Another thing that I like to do (which is less risky) during earnings season is wait for a growth stock to beat earnings (either after market hours or before market hours) and if it is trending upward I buy it, if it trends down ward, I leave it alone. This may seem risky, but historically my success rate has been very high with this method. Plus it's very easy to get out if it turns direction.

[ohio]

21 hours ago, DarterBlue said:

True, that it would.

For the record, I got filled on MPX today at prices ranging from 20.63  to 20.88. Bought 1,820 shares. My exit will be the first time it closes below $20, I will get out at the open the next day. I bought this on the theory that I was buying a breakout. If it's a false breakout, I don't want to be in it, for it trades too thinly for my liking. Though today was a relatively high volume day for this stock as over 60,000 shares traded, I still accounted for approximately 2% of the total volume. 

Congrats.

MPX is up 9.49% today.  Plus it has earnings coming up in a month, which it will probably beat.  Hope to see it double from your purchase price.

[HSFBfan]

He can thank me for the mpx stock. I had it at 17 and sold it around 19 or so. 

[ohio]

16 minutes ago, HSFBfan said:

He can thank me for the mpx stock. I had it at 17 and sold it around 19 or so. 

Nice job.

[HSFBfan]

2 minutes ago, ohio said:

Nice job.

I was called an idiot for selling it. But the stock market game isnt for me. I wished darter all the luck in the world on it and hope he makes a million. Mpx has gone up to 23 and had pulled back at that level. So itll he interesting to see if it can break through 23

[ohio]

Just now, HSFBfan said:

I was called an idiot for selling it. But the stock market game isnt for me. I wished darter all the luck in the world on it and hope he makes a million. Mpx has gone up to 23 and had pulled back at that level. So itll he interesting to see if it can break through 23

Hopefully it will.

[HSFBfan]

1 minute ago, ohio said:

Hopefully it will.

That's all u can do is hope. And hope people put the volume behind it to send it upwards