DBP66 Posted July 16, 2020 Report Share Posted July 16, 2020 President Trump is now lagging behind presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden nationally and in numerous key swing states, according to a series of recent polls.Biden leads the president by 13 points in Pennsylvania — a state that helped springboard Trump into the White House when he won a surprise victory there in 2016 — released Wednesday. It’s the latest bad poll for the incumbent as his disapproval ratings for his handling of the coronavirus pandemic continue to rise. Joe Biden makes an unannounced stop at his childhood home in Scranton, Pa., July 9. (Christopher Dolan/The Times-Tribune via AP.Per Monmouth, Biden is supported by 53 percent of registered voters, compared with Trump’s 40 percent. Biden also nets a large lead among independent voters, with 54 percent supporting him and only 33 percent supporting Trump.Barack Obama won the state by only 5 points in 2012. Trump, meanwhile, was the first Republican to carry the state since 1988.Crucially, according to the poll, Biden is up 19 points among registered voters in Pennsylvania’s major swing counties, which include the Philadelphia suburbs and northeastern regions of the state. Democrats have scored a number of victories in the state since 2016 and made inroads among suburbanites, a crucial and historically Republican-leaning voting bloc.Biden has leaned heavily into his Scranton, Pa., roots over the past several months, pitching himself as a blue-collar, union-friendly candidate who, if elected, would bring billions of dollars in manufacturing back to the United States.Speaking at a Pennsylvania metalworks factory this month, Biden accused Trump of abandoning the working-class voters who went for him in 2016.“He’s walked away,” the former vice president said. “His failures come with a terrible cost and deep economic toll.” But a Trump victory can’t rely on Pennsylvania alone. The incumbent candidate is also losing ground in GOP strongholds Arizona and Texas, a warning sign that those reliably red states may not be so dependable this time around. In the last election, Trump won those states by 3 points and 9 points, respectively, and losing either could doom his reelection chances in November.According to a slew of recent polls, Trump is likewise struggling in key swing states such as Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Wisconsin and Georgia. The president won all five states in 2016, and Democrats have not won Georgia since 1992. In addition to the state polls, a Yahoo News/YouGov survey released Wednesday found Biden leading Trump by 8 points nationally among registered voters, as the president’s attacks on his rival have failed to gain traction.NBC reported that Arizona Republicans are feeling “pessimistic” about the party’s future there, and worry that divisions stoked by Trump to shore up his most ardent followers are alienating the independent voters he needs to win. A New York Times/Siena College poll from late June found Trump trailing Biden by 7 points in the state, which last voted Democratic in 1996.In Texas, Trump is barely leading Biden, according to averages from RealClearPolitics, and a Fox News poll released late last month gave the Democrat a 1-point lead. Former candidate and Congressman Beto O’Rourke told Yahoo News in late June that he sees his home state as “Biden’s to lose.”Arizona, Texas and Florida have all been ravaged by the coronavirus in recent weeks. Texas set the single-day record for new cases on Tuesday, with Houston projected to eclipse cases in Brazil. And hospitals in Arizona continue to report higher inpatient rates.Health officials in Arizona and Texas are now readying refrigerated mobile morgue trucks as hospital morgues near capacity. Critics see the dramatic uptick in cases and the death toll as a result of Republican lawmakers’ urge to open up states too early, which could continue to hinder Trump’s chances in November.In a meandering Rose Garden speech Tuesday, Trump falsely equated the rising cases nationwide to an increase in testing and said polls showing him losing to Biden were “fake.”“I think we’re doing very well in the polls, and I think you have a silent majority the likes of which this country has never seen before,” Trump said. “This is a very important election.” Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DBP66 Posted July 16, 2020 Author Report Share Posted July 16, 2020 As Trump fires his campaign manager!....let the meltdown begin.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSFBfan Posted July 16, 2020 Report Share Posted July 16, 2020 HRC is calling...99 percent chance of winning. Loser 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DBP66 Posted July 16, 2020 Author Report Share Posted July 16, 2020 Even if the Polls Are Really Off, Trump Is Still in Trouble Nate Cohn July 16, 2020, 7:56 AM Trump With Joe Biden claiming almost a double-digit lead in national polls, one question still seems to loom over the race: Can we trust the polls after 2016? It’s a good question. But for now, it is not as important as you might guess. If the election were held today, Biden would win the presidency, even if the polls were exactly as wrong as they were four years ago. The reason is simple: His lead is far wider than Hillary Clinton’s was in the final polls, and large enough to withstand another 2016 polling meltdown. This is not to say that Trump can’t win. There are still nearly four months to go until the election — more than enough time for the race and the polls to change. The race changed on several occasions over the final months in 2016. And this race has already changed significantly in the past four months. According to FiveThirtyEight, three months ago, Biden held a lead of only about 4 points. And while Biden can currently survive a 2016-like polling error, there is no reason a polling error couldn’t be even larger in 2020. But for now, his lead is large enough to survive a 2016 repeat and just about every general-election polling error in recent memory. He leads by an average of nearly 10 percentage points in national polls since June 1, well ahead of Clinton’s 4-point lead in the final national polls or her peaks of about 7 points in early August and mid-October. Biden also enjoys a far wider lead in the battleground states likeliest to decide the presidency. His 13-point lead in a Monmouth University poll of Pennsylvania published Wednesday, for instance, puts him in a much stronger position than Clinton, who had a 4-point lead in the last Monmouth poll of Pennsylvania taken just before the election. Of course, the polls could be even further off this time than four years ago. But there are also many reasons to think they could be better this time around. Perhaps most important, many pollsters now weight their sample to properly represent voters without a college degree. The failure of many state pollsters to do so in 2016 is widely considered one of the major reasons the polls underestimated Trump’s support. Voters without a four-year college degree are far less likely to respond to telephone surveys — and far likelier to support Trump. By our estimates, weighting by education might move the typical poll by as much as 4 points in Trump’s direction. Although many state pollsters still do not weight by education, far more do than four years ago. The Monmouth poll is one example. The final Monmouth poll of Pennsylvania in 2016, which showed Clinton up 4 percentage points, would have shown her with a 2-point lead, 47% to 45%, if it had been weighted by education, according to Patrick Murray, director of the poll. That alone covers about half of the difference between the actual result and the final Monmouth poll, and it’s a reason to have more confidence in the new Monmouth poll. Education weighting is not enough to ensure a perfect result. After all, Clinton still would have led — albeit quite narrowly — in the final Monmouth poll of Pennsylvania, even weighted by education. And other high-quality, education-weighted state polls, like the Marquette Law School poll in Wisconsin, still showed Clinton with a considerable edge in 2016. Other factors were clearly at play. But many of the other sources of polling error in 2016 also seem less likely to repeat. There are far fewer undecided or minor-party voters now than four years ago. These voters broke in Trump’s favor, according to exit polls and postelection surveys that recontacted preelection respondents, helping to explain part of his strength in the final results. Undecided voters could again break toward Trump, but this time there are simply fewer of them — and therefore less opportunity for the polls to be wrong for that reason. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DBP66 Posted July 16, 2020 Author Report Share Posted July 16, 2020 5 minutes ago, HSFBfan said: HRC is calling...99 percent chance of winning. Loser that's what I'll be calling you and the rest of the clowns here very soon....the FAT lady is getting ready to sign... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DBP66 Posted July 16, 2020 Author Report Share Posted July 16, 2020 Trump Replaces Campaign Manager as Biden Widens Polling Lead Zachary Evans July 16, 2020, 8:18 AM Read full article President Trump replaced his 2020 campaign manager on Wednesday evening as numerous polls showed the incumbent trailing behind Democratic rival Joe Biden. Trump promoted Bill Stepien, a longtime aide, to campaign manager while Brad Parscale will continue as a senior campaign adviser. Parscale will also continue to oversee the campaign’s digital strategy arm. “Both were heavily involved in our historic 2016 win, and I look forward to having a big and very important second win together,” Trump wrote in a Facebook post. “This one should be a lot easier as our poll numbers are rising fast, the economy is getting better, vaccines and therapeutics will soon be on the way, and Americans want safe streets and communities!” The move comes as polls show Biden with a wide lead, with RealClearPolitics polling averages giving Biden almost 49 percent to Trump’s 40 percent as of Wednesday. Biden has consistently bested Trump in these polling averages since fall 2019 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I AM IRONMAN Posted July 16, 2020 Report Share Posted July 16, 2020 Let the debates begin. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DBP66 Posted July 16, 2020 Author Report Share Posted July 16, 2020 13 minutes ago, I AM IRONMAN said: Let the debates begin. yea..that's the ticket!!…...LOL....the debates aren't going to save his lying red neck ass...he's toast... #selfexposed.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I AM IRONMAN Posted July 16, 2020 Report Share Posted July 16, 2020 7 minutes ago, DBP66 said: yea..that's the ticket!!…...LOL....the debates aren't going to save his lying red neck ass...he's toast... #selfexposed.... Hey dummy....what Biden did in 8 years as vp and 40+ years in politics will be exposed and will sink him. Plus how far radical left he is being pulled and what this country will look like if the radicals get their way. Keep dreaming Karen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DBP66 Posted July 16, 2020 Author Report Share Posted July 16, 2020 3 minutes ago, I AM IRONMAN said: Hey dummy....what Biden did in 8 years as vp and 40+ years in politics will be exposed and will sink him. Plus how far radical left he is being pulled and what this country will look like if the radicals get their way. Keep dreaming Karen. I'm dreaming??..LOL...who's getting his ass kicked BIG time??...your lying boy...not going to be close... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I AM IRONMAN Posted July 16, 2020 Report Share Posted July 16, 2020 40 minutes ago, DBP66 said: I'm dreaming??..LOL...who's getting his ass kicked BIG time??...your lying boy...not going to be close... Heard this from your whiney bitchy mouth about 4 years ago 😂🙊🙉🙈 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DBP66 Posted July 16, 2020 Author Report Share Posted July 16, 2020 27 minutes ago, I AM IRONMAN said: Heard this from your whiney bitchy mouth about 4 years ago 😂🙊🙉🙈 and you'll be hearing a lot about it in the near future...the Fat lady is warming up.... #selfexposed..... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I AM IRONMAN Posted July 16, 2020 Report Share Posted July 16, 2020 1 minute ago, DBP66 said: and you'll be hearing a lot about it in the near future...the Fat lady is warming up.... #selfexposed..... 🙊🙉🙈 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ga96 Posted July 16, 2020 Report Share Posted July 16, 2020 Crazy part trump is turning hard nosed red states into blue and swings states. Never thought I would hear Texas and Georgia might end up being swing states. How bad can you be to piss off rednecks? Hell here in Georgia republican mayors are saying wear a mask and the governor staying inside but refusing to mandate wearing mask. Shit has hit the fan. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSFBfan Posted July 16, 2020 Report Share Posted July 16, 2020 4 minutes ago, Ga96 said: Crazy part trump is turning hard nosed red states into blue and swings states. Never thought I would hear Texas and Georgia might end up being swing states. How bad can you be to piss off rednecks? Hell here in Georgia republican mayors are saying wear a mask and the governor staying inside but refusing to mandate wearing mask. Shit has hit the fan. Really??? Every 4 years they say Texas is in play. And than they are disappointed when it goes red. So either your disingenuous or u really don't pay attention Gov in Georgia....no mask mandate. Thank you Gov Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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