DarterBlue Posted March 22, 2018 Author Report Share Posted March 22, 2018 2 minutes ago, noonereal said: let's face it, capitalism needs to be bridled or it's a disastrous system for the masses. Without proper checks and safeguards, it's also disastrous for the capitalist class, too, as we would end up with frequent busts leading to very deep recessions, if not outright depressions. The problem with unregulated capitalism is that it is inherently unstable and does not tend to equilibrium, as suggested in most textbooks. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarterBlue Posted March 22, 2018 Author Report Share Posted March 22, 2018 22 hours ago, DarterBlue said: It is always good to have your trade start off positively. However, unlike the end of January when I was relatively certain that the market was going to go south violently, I am less sure this time. With that said, my decision to go short again was based on last week's action, this Monday's selloff, and Tuesday's tepid bounce back. With respect to last week's action, Tuesday, March 13, was a key reversal day in the sense that the market after opening up, reversed violently to the downside. It was followed by successive stalling day on Wednesday and Thursday, with a very mild, positive bounce on Friday. Well, over the weekend, a lot went on on political front. Nothing surprising there, as the current Presidency has been characterized by unceasing drama. What was surprising was the market's response on Monday. For the first time, it appeared to react negatively to our political turmoil, as Monday was a bad market day. And Tuesday resembled Friday of last week in that the bounce back was very mild. With the FED making its decision on interest rates today, I felt initiating another short position was in order as I expected it would remain on track to continue raising rates. After all, it pretty much has no choice. Now 1/4 point hikes in of themselves would normally have little impact given how low rates are to begin with. However, this entire bull market has been predicated on easy monetary policy. Given what I consider as its extreme overvaluation, once easy money is off the table, we could easily see a 40% or more decline in the prices of financial assets. And with the weakness last week and questionable action this week, perhaps the process did indeed begin at the end of January 2018. For, despite the NASDAQ indexes hitting new highs in March, the other indices have not gotten there yet, and based on recent action, may not get there in this cycle. For the second time in a row, my entry was pretty good. However, the first time I was wrong in believing that the market was pretty much going to go straight down from its January highs, rather than top out over time. As a result, that trade was closed with minimal profit. At the close today, using the mid range between bid and ask (on a quiet trading day you can usually get a fill at that price), the new positions were up approximately $9k. Adding yesterday's closing results, the positions now show a $10k profit, or approximately 16.5% on funds deployed in a day and a half. Call it veteran's luck if you will, the trick now will be to manage this trade properly. First, I will start by repeating that I am a position trader, not a day trader. So, unless the market literally falls out of bed tomorrow, I am very unlikely to close the positions. From here, the next test comes at the February lows for the DOW and NYSE. Yes, I know my positions are short the Russell, NASDAQ 100 and S&P 500. However, the DOW and NYSE are closest to breaking their February lows and if they do, I fully expect the other major indices to follow. Should they hold these lows, assuming they actually test them, then that would be a good sign for the bulls. If they slice through them, then I fully expect triple digit profits from these trades before they are closed. On the other hand, should tomorrow be a strong rebound day, I will have to do some homework over the weekend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
noonereal Posted March 22, 2018 Report Share Posted March 22, 2018 I won big playing the "wrong" today. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AztecPadre Posted March 22, 2018 Report Share Posted March 22, 2018 23 minutes ago, noonereal said: I won big playing the "wrong" today. Could he be any more stupid? He bows to Russia because it's "good" for the country but he shots on China who we owe untold billions to? I'm positive if trump said to jump out of a plane at 30,000 feet because it was good for the country the ring wing whack jobs would do it. Please trump tweet that out. Please!!!!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBlockIsHot Posted March 22, 2018 Report Share Posted March 22, 2018 Just now, AztecPadre said: Could he be any more stupid? He bows to Russia because it's "good" for the country but he shots on China who we owe untold billions to? I'm positive if trump said to jump out of a plane at 30,000 feet because it was good for the country the ring wing whack jobs would do it. Please trump tweet that out. Please!!!!! I so wish he'd tweet instructions to his TrumpTards to jump off a roof. So many would do it lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AztecPadre Posted March 22, 2018 Report Share Posted March 22, 2018 10 minutes ago, TheBlockIsHot said: I so wish he'd tweet instructions to his TrumpTards to jump off a roof. So many would do it lol LOL! Sadly I have no doubt we would have many deaths and injuries across this nation if he did. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
noonereal Posted March 23, 2018 Report Share Posted March 23, 2018 13 hours ago, AztecPadre said: Could he be any more stupid? he is not stupid. He is Putin's bitch for reasons we do not yet know. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarterBlue Posted March 23, 2018 Author Report Share Posted March 23, 2018 56 minutes ago, noonereal said: he is not stupid. He is Putin's bitch for reasons we do not yet know. BINGO!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AztecPadre Posted March 23, 2018 Report Share Posted March 23, 2018 2 hours ago, noonereal said: he is not stupid. He is Putin's bitch for reasons we do not yet know. True. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSFBfan Posted March 23, 2018 Report Share Posted March 23, 2018 @DarterBluedow is back above 24k Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarterBlue Posted March 23, 2018 Author Report Share Posted March 23, 2018 1 hour ago, HSFBfan said: @DarterBluedow is back above 24k If you understand market action, you will realize that today has been a very inconclusive one. Unless you get a big rally into the close, and that's possible, it will have actually been a disappointing day, given the weakness this week and last. The key is whether it continues to rally and pulls the troops (other indexes) with it. Short of that, the odds are early next week we will take out today's lows, which, BTW, bearishly undercut yesterday's lows. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSFBfan Posted March 23, 2018 Report Share Posted March 23, 2018 5 minutes ago, DarterBlue said: If you understand market action, you will realize that today has been a very inclusive one. Unless you get a big rally into the close, and that's possible, it will have actually been a disappointing day, given the weakness this week and last. The key is whether it continues to rally and pulls the troops (other indexes) with it. Short of that, the odds are early next week we will take out today's lows, which, BTW, bearishly undercut yesterday's lows. I'm just happy to see it above 24k Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarterBlue Posted March 23, 2018 Author Report Share Posted March 23, 2018 4 minutes ago, HSFBfan said: I'm just happy to see it above 24k We are a long way from the close. If I were a betting man like noon, I would bet we close below 24000 and lower than yesterday. So I would find another thing to be happy about so you can enjoy your weekend! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSFBfan Posted March 23, 2018 Report Share Posted March 23, 2018 1 minute ago, DarterBlue said: We are a long way from the close. If I were a betting man like noon, I would bet we close below 24000 and lower than yesterday. So I would find another thing to be happy about so you can enjoy your weekend! There always alcohol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
noonereal Posted March 23, 2018 Report Share Posted March 23, 2018 2 minutes ago, DarterBlue said: If I were a betting man like noon, you are Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
noonereal Posted March 23, 2018 Report Share Posted March 23, 2018 play the don't pass on the come out roll with a small hedge on the 7/11 hope this helps! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBlockIsHot Posted March 23, 2018 Report Share Posted March 23, 2018 10 minutes ago, HSFBfan said: I'm just happy to see it above 24k The market is doing well. Maybe it is time for you to get health insurance now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarterBlue Posted March 23, 2018 Author Report Share Posted March 23, 2018 2 minutes ago, HSFBfan said: There always alcohol Alcohol contributed to my dad's early death. A beer there, a glass of wine here, even a little of the hard stuff is fine. Just never become dependent on it and don't use it as a salve. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSFBfan Posted March 23, 2018 Report Share Posted March 23, 2018 Just now, TheBlockIsHot said: The market is doing well. Maybe it is time for you to get health insurance now. Nah. Considering I'm part of the 49% not in the market lmaooo. It's fun to watch it tho. Heck of a roller coaster ride Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSFBfan Posted March 23, 2018 Report Share Posted March 23, 2018 Just now, DarterBlue said: Alcohol contributed to my dad's early death. A beer there, a glass of wine here, even a little of the hard stuff is fine. Just never become dependent on it and don't use it as a salve. Sorry to hear about your dad. Being very serious about that. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBlockIsHot Posted March 23, 2018 Report Share Posted March 23, 2018 1 minute ago, HSFBfan said: Nah. Considering I'm part of the 49% not in the market lmaooo. It's fun to watch it tho. Heck of a roller coaster ride So you are not invested in the market at all, but watch the market as a measure of the economy's success which does not benefit you at all? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarterBlue Posted March 23, 2018 Author Report Share Posted March 23, 2018 3 minutes ago, noonereal said: you are I call what I do, taking a calculated risk with the odds slightly in my favor. Sort of akin to the house. I don't consider the house to be gambling, because in the long run it almost always makes money in the aggregate! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSFBfan Posted March 23, 2018 Report Share Posted March 23, 2018 2 minutes ago, TheBlockIsHot said: So you are not invested in the market at all, but watch the market as a measure of the economy's success which does not benefit you at all? I like seeing millionaires being made. Very happy for them. We now have the most amount of millionaires ever in this country. People making money everyday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarterBlue Posted March 23, 2018 Author Report Share Posted March 23, 2018 2 minutes ago, HSFBfan said: Sorry to hear about your dad. Being very serious about that. Thanks. He had his own inner demons. He was a good man with some very real, human weaknesses. I credit him with instilling a love of learning in me which is probably why I am still alive and kicking today. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBlockIsHot Posted March 23, 2018 Report Share Posted March 23, 2018 Just now, HSFBfan said: I like seeing millionaires being made. Very happy for them. We now have the most amount of millionaires ever in this country. People making money everyday. Maybe they can donate to your health insurance fund? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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