The Stock Market

[DarterBlue]

2 minutes ago, dan in daytona said:

1) Yes, Vanguard had the lowest expense ratio of all the investment firms that handled my company's generated 401K retirement plan over the last 30+ years. Moved the bulk of my savings back over to them many years ago. At retirement, with company matching to T Rowe Price account ending, everything now is at Vanguard.                  2) No way am I looking fondly upon a posible 22% market drop, or in your words, a "correction." Better cash in now and jump on this unprecedented Raging Bull.... nervously whistling in the dark

 

1. Good move with Vanguard. They were a client when I lived in NYC. I found them to be a high quality, high ethics organization.

2. The problem with unprecedented Raging Bulls, is they get slaughtered by matadors. I will grant you two examples: 1. The roaring 1920s ended in the 1929 crash. 2. The 1990s bull market/Dot Com bubble, ended in the Dot Com crash!. I will throw in a third and fourth. 3. Tulip Mania in Holland in the 17th Century ended in massive losses. 4. The great Japanese Bull Market of the 1980s ended in he Nikki meltdown that began in late 1989.

We recover from some bubbles and not from others. I suspect in our current situation we may not recover from the cryptocurrency bubble but may recover from any imminent, stock market meltdown. It all depends on the extent to which there was real underlying value. The USA still has underlying value. But the policy direction of the the country could destroy that. Time will tell, my friend.

[dan in daytona]

2 hours ago, DarterBlue said:

1. Good move with Vanguard. They were a client when I lived in NYC. I found them to be a high quality, high ethics organization.

2. The problem with unprecedented Raging Bulls, is they get slaughtered by matadors. I will grant you two examples: 1. The roaring 1920s ended in the 1929 crash. 2. The 1990s bull market/Dot Com bubble, ended in the Dot Com crash!. I will throw in a third and fourth. 3. Tulip Mania in Holland in the 17th Century ended in massive losses. 4. The great Japanese Bull Market of the 1980s ended in he Nikki meltdown that began in late 1989.

We recover from some bubbles and not from others. I suspect in our current situation we may not recover from the cryptocurrency bubble but may recover from any imminent, stock market meltdown. It all depends on the extent to which there was real underlying value. The USA still has underlying value. But the policy direction of the the country could destroy that. Time will tell, my friend.

Policy direction bothers me too. It doesn't help to have an undisciplined blabbermouth firing off daily tweets without much thought or interest in how they might be interpreted domestically or world wide. Markets never respond well to chaos and instability.

[DarterBlue]

Here comes the Rally: Stock market futures are up big this morning as many indices face critical support tests. While we are three and a half hours away, it seems that at the open all indexes will be up well over a percent. The acid test will be the quality of this rally and whether it will, indeed, hold. Despite being invested in its failure, I am agnostic at the moment and will take my direction from it. The market is somewhat oversold (though not critically so). Combine that with being just at or above important support, it is not surprising that it is attempting to rally.

A quality rally followed by strength in the ensuing days, would constitute a successful test of the February lows. That would cause me to cover my short positions.  A failed rally attempt would be the final death knell of the 2009 bull market run!

[dan in daytona]

Tea leaves, a crystal ball, you are not....enjoy my friend

[HSFBfan]

6 hours ago, DarterBlue said:

Here comes the Rally: Stock market futures are up big this morning as many indices face critical support tests. While we are three and a half hours away, it seems that at the open all indexes will be up well over a percent. The acid test will be the quality of this rally and whether it will, indeed, hold. Despite being invested in its failure, I am agnostic at the moment and will take my direction from it. The market is somewhat oversold (though not critically so). Combine that with being just at or above important support, it is not surprising that it is attempting to rally.

A quality rally followed by strength in the ensuing days, would constitute a successful test of the February lows. That would cause me to cover my short positions.  A failed rally attempt would be the final death knell of the 2009 bull market run!

Its up 417 points right now

[DarterBlue]

5 minutes ago, dan in daytona said:

Tea leaves, a crystal ball, you are not....enjoy my friend

No one is. I have not made a pact with the devil. The goal is to eek out gains when the opportunities present themselves. 

 

3 minutes ago, HSFBfan said:

Its up 417 points right now

The day is still young, my friend. Between now and the close will say a lot. 

[HSFBfan]

3 minutes ago, DarterBlue said:

No one is. I have not made a pact with the devil. The goal is to eek out gains when the opportunities present themselves. 

 

The day is still young, my friend. Between now and the close will say a lot. 

I agree but its been hanging btw up 280-420 all day. Something huge would have to come out. 

Please explain to me why GE is still part of the dow? I read that they want to replace GE with Amazon

[dan in daytona]

...the scene is set....Darter in his home office, door bolted shut, wearing his Hugh Hefner silk robe, pajama bottoms, and Johnston & Murphy slide leather sandals, a 1920 era ticker tape machine clicking in the back ground, his grey hair standing straight up (Einstein like). As he paces his dark smokey enclave beads of sweat form on his brow. All that matters now is the gavel slamming down signaling the end of today's trading....to be continued. 

[DarterBlue]

35 minutes ago, HSFBfan said:

I agree but its been hanging btw up 280-420 all day. Something huge would have to come out. 

Please explain to me why GE is still part of the dow? I read that they want to replace GE with Amazon

Not necessarily. If something huge came out and it sold off, that would be meaningless to me. But if nothing noteworthy came out and it closed in the lower end of its range or at day lows, that would be huge, technically. And, by the way, the day's range is more like 270 to 500. But I digress. If you recall, the DOW lost over 1,300 points last week. The last 1100 were lost in just two days. It is normal to expect that it would attempt a rally today. Markets don't go straight down or up. Market action is more like a set of stairs. Sort of two steps forward one back in bull markets and the opposite in bear markets. In fact the only difference between the two in trending markets is that bear markets are characterized by greater volatility both up and down. 

As of now, we may have found a bottom or we may not. Time will tell. The job for me is to listen to the market and let its behavior determine my action.

Regarding GE, it is probably going to be replaced soon. At its low price it has little impact on the DOW, which, stupidly, is price weighted. Whether it's Amazon or another company, it probably makes little difference in the long run. GE has stayed in the DOW this long because it is a venerable American Company. But all things human come to an end ... eventually.

[HSFBfan]

Just now, DarterBlue said:

Not necessarily. If something huge came out and it sold off, that would be meaningless to me. But if nothing noteworthy came out and it closed in the lower end of its range or at day lows, that would be huge, technically. And, by the way, the day's range is more like 270 to 500. But I digress. If you recall, the DOW lost over 1,300 points last week. The last 1100 were lost in just two days. It is normal to expect that it would attempt a rally today. Markets don't go straight down or up. Market action is more like a set of stairs. Sort of two steps forward one back in bull markets and the opposite in bear markets. In fact the only difference between the two in trending markets is that bear markets are characterized by greater volatility both up and down. 

As of now, we may have found a bottom or we may not. Time will tell. The job for me is to listen to the market and let its behavior determine my action.

Regarding GE, it is probably going to be replaced soon. At its low price it has little impact on the DOW, which, stupidly, is price weighted. Whether it's Amazon or another company, it probably makes little difference in the long run. GE has stayed in the DOW this long because it is a venerable American Company. But all things human come to an end ... eventually.

GE is down about 9% at this point. Amazon is up. Would help to see a little more rally. I think today we will end up but as you stated 2.5 hours to go. Anything could happen. Were back around 24k Seems like we are right around that line alot. Idk if we found the bottom. But USA and S. Korea has made a deal in terms of trade. South Korea has a 18billion trade surplus over the USA. China looks like they will come to the table

Also not sure if this applies but looks like the head of the VA will be getting replaced.

[DarterBlue]

20 minutes ago, dan in daytona said:

...the scene is set....Darter in his home office, door bolted shut, wearing his Hugh Hefner silk robe, pajama bottoms, and Johnston & Murphy slide leather sandals, a 1920 era ticker tape machine clicking in the back ground, his grey hair standing straight up (Einstein like). As he paces his dark smokey enclave beads of sweat form on his brow. All that matters now is the gavel slamming down signaling the end of today's trading....to be continued. 

No such thing, Dan. For me it's: "The ICE Man cometh." Years of trading the markets have given me a somewhat stoic approach to daily action. It is akin to sex. You never forget your first time, even though it's usually your worst time. When you are experienced, it loses its luster. 

BTW, for those that may have wondered why I have publicly posted my trades, the answer is thus: I sat on the sidelines from December 2015, till the end of January 2017. Like athletics, a lack of actual trading leads to ring rust. I figured that by posting what I was doing, it would focus me on the task at hand. Like most humans, I, too, have a vain streak. It would be pretty embarrassing to end up with a number of publicly disclosed bad trades. 

Once I have fully recovered my rhythm, the need to do this will have dissipated. 

[HSFBfan]

https://www.barrons.com/articles/intraday-update-dow-soars-400-points-because-talk-isnt-cheap-1522084232?mod=yahoobarrons&ru=yahoo&yptr=yahoo

@DarterBlue

[DarterBlue]

3 minutes ago, HSFBfan said:

But USA and S. Korea has made a deal in terms of trade. South Korea has a 18billion trade surplus over the USA. China looks like they will come to the table

Also not sure if this applies but looks like the head of the VA will be getting replaced

Again, what's important is not so much the news. It is how the market reacts to the news. Demand and supply determines price. In that sense, like you, Garden State Baller misses the point. It takes years of doing this in real time to understand what the market is trying to tell you. Most never get to that point either because they are lazy or because they let their egos get in the way. Many are called but few chosen ...

[HSFBfan]

Just now, DarterBlue said:

Again, what's important is not so much the news. It is how the market reacts to the news. Demand and supply determines price. In that sense, like you, Garden State Baller misses the point. It takes years of doing this in real time to understand what the market is trying to tell you. Most never get to that point either because they are lazy or because they let their egos get in the way. Many are called but few chosen ...

the market is a game that a lot of people dont get involved in. its a wait and see gamble that like you said takes dedication to understand if youll understand it at all. 

[DarterBlue]

2 minutes ago, HSFBfan said:

https://www.barrons.com/articles/intraday-update-dow-soars-400-points-because-talk-isnt-cheap-1522084232?mod=yahoobarrons&ru=yahoo&yptr=yahoo

@DarterBlue

At its day high, the DOW was 24044. You do the math and tell me how many points up from Friday that is. I may read Barron's, or the Journal or IBD or whatever. At the end of the day, I verify for myself. 

[HSFBfan]

Just now, DarterBlue said:

At its day high, the DOW was 24044. You do the math and tell me how many points up from Friday that is. I may read Barron's, or the Journal or IBD or whatever. At the end of the day, I verify for myself. 

Roughly 500 points

[DarterBlue]

Just now, HSFBfan said:

the market is a game that a lot of people dont get involved in. its a wait and see gamble that like you said takes dedication to understand if youll understand it at all. 

You will know you understand the market when you realize you don't understand it. If that sounds contradictory it is. Most individuals try and predict the market. But that is as impossible as trying to predict what will happen to you tomorrow. As with your personal life the best you can do is have a game plan (in the case of tomorrow a to do list). However you must realize that stuff happens. Therefore, you constantly have to adjust the game plan. 

[HSFBfan]

Just now, DarterBlue said:

You will know you understand the market when you realize you don't understand it. If that sounds contradictory it is. Most individuals try and predict the market. But that is as impossible as trying to predict what will happen to you tomorrow. As with your personal life the best you can do is have a game plan (in the case of tomorrow a to do list). However you must realize that stuff happens. Therefore, you constantly have to adjust the game plan. 

I agree. This is how I look at the market. its like a horse race. When you have no money invested in the race the race is fun to watch. When you put money in and you have done your studying and believe you have nailed the winner and at the end of the day you lost your sitting there scratching your head trying to figure out what you missed. 

[DarterBlue]

Just now, HSFBfan said:

I agree. This is how I look at the market. its like a horse race. When you have no money invested in the race the race is fun to watch. When you put money in and you have done your studying and believe you have nailed the winner and at the end of the day you lost your sitting there scratching your head trying to figure out what you missed. 

If you are a pro, you don't scratch your head. Why? Because you realize that you will always have bad trades. They come with the territory. It's like selling handbags in a store. Some of your inventory is not going to sell well and some will fly off the shelves (electronic shelves in this day and age if you will). So what you need to do is get rid of the bad inventory even if you must mark it down and stock up with the winners.

But the greatest trick of all is to avoid taking excessive risk. As Ed Seykota (you should look him up) said: "There are bold traders and old traders, but very few old, bold traders."

[HSFBfan]

Just now, DarterBlue said:

If you are a pro, you don't scratch your head. Why? Because you realize that you will always have bad trades. They come with the territory. It's like selling handbags in a store. Some of your inventory is not going to sell well and some will fly off the shelves (electronic shelves in this day and age if you will). So what you need to do is get rid of the bad inventory even if you must mark it down and stock up with the winners.

But the greatest trick of all is to avoid taking excessive risk. As Ed Seykota (you should look him up) said: "There are bold traders and old traders, but very few old, bold traders."

Very true. Very good points. Nothing more to add to that lol. 

[DarterBlue]

39 minutes ago, DarterBlue said:

At its day high, the DOW was 24044. You do the math and tell me how many points up from Friday that is. I may read Barron's, or the Journal or IBD or whatever. At the end of the day, I verify for myself. 

The DOW just made a new day high of 24047, up 514! Pretty impressive after it had sold off earlier.

[HSFBfan]

Just now, DarterBlue said:

The DOW just made a new day high of 24047, up 514! Pretty impressive after it had sold off earlier.

Its a heck of a day on the market. All 3 indexes are up. US Steel is up 3% Seems like everyone is a winner except for GE

[DarterBlue]

Just now, HSFBfan said:

Its a heck of a day on the market. All 3 indexes are up. US Steel is up 3% Seems like everyone is a winner except for GE

I made a post last week in a thread that was never responded to contrasting GE with Grubhub. You should read it if you haven't. Two different stocks going in two different directions. 

[HSFBfan]

Just now, DarterBlue said:

I made a post last week in a thread that was never responded to contrasting GE with Grubhub. You should read it if you haven't. Two different stocks going in two different directions. 

I didnt see it. Ill try to go find it. Grubhub is up 2% today. GE is down almost 2% today

[DarterBlue]

Just now, HSFBfan said:

I didnt see it. Ill try to go find it. Grubhub is up 2% today. GE is down almost 2% today

It's probably on page two or three of the topics listed. A lot of new topics have been made since.